2 comments
Yep, the issue is that recalculating DSCR doesn't happen on the right timescale to incentivize reducing rents, instead incentivizing keeping vacancies open and using a pro forma DSCR.
The banks know this is a structural issue, but are likewise incentivized to keep "strong assets" on their balance sheet, rather than a bunch of troubled assets bound for default.
The claim isn't that they can keep this up forever, it just needs to last another quarter, every quarter.
The shell game is both parties knowing that the cups are all empty but still playing because it's better for them both to do so.
The banks know this is a structural issue, but are likewise incentivized to keep "strong assets" on their balance sheet, rather than a bunch of troubled assets bound for default.
The claim isn't that they can keep this up forever, it just needs to last another quarter, every quarter.
The shell game is both parties knowing that the cups are all empty but still playing because it's better for them both to do so.
DSCR is calculated at least once per year. I don’t know what pro forma could mean here, it’s purely a cash flow calculation. The money came in, or it didn’t.
> The claim isn't that they can keep this up forever, it just needs to last another quarter, every quarter.
I don’t understand what this means, or what is being “played”, the lenders all have a near real time view into the business.
> The claim isn't that they can keep this up forever, it just needs to last another quarter, every quarter.
I don’t understand what this means, or what is being “played”, the lenders all have a near real time view into the business.
Minimum DSCRs have long been used to monitor the current value of a property, and less income is less income.
https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/real-estate/commercial-ter...
> It's a shell game that eventually leads to the loan defaulting, but both the bank and the building owner are happy to pretend they can't see the train coming down the tracks at them.
This makes no sense. Why would a lender not want to keep tabs on their investment? What does shell game (a game where someone is intentionally deceived) even mean here?