The Chaos and the Craftsmanship of Shenzhen(rexstjohn.com)
rexstjohn.com
The Chaos and the Craftsmanship of Shenzhen
http://rexstjohn.com/the-chaos-and-the-craftsmanship-of-shenzhen-part-ii/
42 comments
> There's a lot to be said about improving quality of Chinese hardware and software, but it's definitely not up to western quality levels yet.
Anecdotally, last year I worked for an Asian company which had an office in Shenzhen. They were not able to compete with western tech, in part because they didn't understand the benefits of cloud computing. They wanted to own all their own hardware and it really slowed down software development.
I also got the sense that most primary source programming resources are in English (stack overflow, etc.), and that unless your English was pretty good you might have a hard time keeping up with newer techniques. I think this will improve with time.
Anecdotally, last year I worked for an Asian company which had an office in Shenzhen. They were not able to compete with western tech, in part because they didn't understand the benefits of cloud computing. They wanted to own all their own hardware and it really slowed down software development.
I also got the sense that most primary source programming resources are in English (stack overflow, etc.), and that unless your English was pretty good you might have a hard time keeping up with newer techniques. I think this will improve with time.
Cloud computing in China is a total shit show:
1. Go with a foreign cloud provider which has horrible latency thanks to the Great Firewall, and could get permanently blocked any time at the whims of the government.
2. Go with one of the big Chinese tech companies (Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent), where it's almost guaranteed that they will steal your idea/code/data, clone your product, and rely on their massive size and network effect to destroy you. They didn't get big through innovation like Western tech companies; they got big by stealing and government-backed monopoly.
3. Go with a smaller Chinese tech company that has reliability problems and could go belly up at any time.
1. Go with a foreign cloud provider which has horrible latency thanks to the Great Firewall, and could get permanently blocked any time at the whims of the government.
2. Go with one of the big Chinese tech companies (Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent), where it's almost guaranteed that they will steal your idea/code/data, clone your product, and rely on their massive size and network effect to destroy you. They didn't get big through innovation like Western tech companies; they got big by stealing and government-backed monopoly.
3. Go with a smaller Chinese tech company that has reliability problems and could go belly up at any time.
We use AWS.cn for our service.
But found out last week that AWS doesn't actually have a license, and piggybacks on some third party provider in beijing.
http://m.baidu.com/news?tn=bdbjbody&bjaid=392506&bjdomain=la...
http://m.baidu.com/news?tn=bdbjbody&bjaid=392506&bjdomain=la...
I think all the western cloud providers work like this; e.g. Azure in China. It isn't really that they can't get a license, but getting a license requires a certain amount of exposure to Chinese law that many western companies can't take on.
I guess that's true.
But it wasn't something we'd considered properly.
Gives us more of a reason to move to a Chinese provider for our CN servers.
(This is now simpler as we're standardizing on Kubernetes for deployments, so Kubernetes on AWS.cn vs Kubernetes on Aliyun should be equivalent)
Gives us more of a reason to move to a Chinese provider for our CN servers.
(This is now simpler as we're standardizing on Kubernetes for deployments, so Kubernetes on AWS.cn vs Kubernetes on Aliyun should be equivalent)
The idea is that the technology is constant at least. Also, tech support often goes along with it.
"The innovation process always starts with copying and in Shenzhen they are copying systematically at a scale you can scarcely imagine. A student who copies Van Gogh relentlessly may not initially understand how Van Gogh undertook original works of art. After enough copying, that same student may grasp the underlying theories and extend them into new areas."
- China is often criticized for the copying as violating IP, but one could also argue that copying and adding new changes to the copy is the lifeblood of open-source innovation and the nature of decentralized systems as well as human biological evolution. A great book that explores these ideas is 'The Evolution of Everything' by Matt Ridley. I recommend it.
"much of the “Efficiency” America has traded for lower cost manufacturing has come at the cost of our ability to bring all of the key pieces together at home."
- There is likely much truth in this statement by Andy Grove and perhaps American companies and leaders should take pause. Labor cost arbitrage in foreign countries like China and Mexico might be like a balloon mortgage for America where the costs are low upfront for some years, but then the large bill comes later.
- China is often criticized for the copying as violating IP, but one could also argue that copying and adding new changes to the copy is the lifeblood of open-source innovation and the nature of decentralized systems as well as human biological evolution. A great book that explores these ideas is 'The Evolution of Everything' by Matt Ridley. I recommend it.
"much of the “Efficiency” America has traded for lower cost manufacturing has come at the cost of our ability to bring all of the key pieces together at home."
- There is likely much truth in this statement by Andy Grove and perhaps American companies and leaders should take pause. Labor cost arbitrage in foreign countries like China and Mexico might be like a balloon mortgage for America where the costs are low upfront for some years, but then the large bill comes later.
Here's a great article that explains how IP in China works --- it's definitely more sharing-centric than the West: http://www.bunniestudios.com/blog/?p=4297
If it could be summed up in one sentence, it would be "Everything is a derivative work." Instead of trying to claim complete exclusivity, they implicitly realise that everything someone creates is always built upon the knowledge of others.
If it could be summed up in one sentence, it would be "Everything is a derivative work." Instead of trying to claim complete exclusivity, they implicitly realise that everything someone creates is always built upon the knowledge of others.
> everything someone creates is always built upon the knowledge of others
Right. Sure. These are the kinds of beliefs often verbalized by people who never risked their own time and money to solve hard problems and had to face the risk and reality of the Chinese (or others) stealing the results of that effort.
Here's the difference, the "R" in "R&D" is the most expensive part. The "D" is cheap. By stealing they get the "R" for free and can afford devastating predatory techniques to own the market.
We devoted ten years and millions of dollars to solving a very hard problem. I decided we would keep all of it a trade secret.
Why?
Because, that was the only way to make "D" very expensive. Stealing something when the cost is just as high as having to develop it often scares away a lot of thieves.
It's one thing if you are developing a new set of headphones that don't really have much in the way of technical innovation. It's quite another thing when you are solving a hard problem (which can be risky, very expensive and require a long and constant effort).
Right. Sure. These are the kinds of beliefs often verbalized by people who never risked their own time and money to solve hard problems and had to face the risk and reality of the Chinese (or others) stealing the results of that effort.
Here's the difference, the "R" in "R&D" is the most expensive part. The "D" is cheap. By stealing they get the "R" for free and can afford devastating predatory techniques to own the market.
We devoted ten years and millions of dollars to solving a very hard problem. I decided we would keep all of it a trade secret.
Why?
Because, that was the only way to make "D" very expensive. Stealing something when the cost is just as high as having to develop it often scares away a lot of thieves.
It's one thing if you are developing a new set of headphones that don't really have much in the way of technical innovation. It's quite another thing when you are solving a hard problem (which can be risky, very expensive and require a long and constant effort).
What is the hard problem you were trying to solve?
I'll just say it was a very hard problem in imaging. A solution involving the confluence of hardware, optics, software and real-time FPGA-based very high resolution image processing. We even had to go as far as to develop manufacturing techniques that involved assembling electronics in a vacuum chamber.
Given the application I can't say any more than that.
Given the application I can't say any more than that.
I think R cost is low, creating a poc is about 100th of the cost of a product (a proper product) but the risk of R is huge and therefore it's very hard to sustain and justify.
While that is often true in software it is very seldom true in hardware. Think hard drives. The first HDD with HAMR (using lasers to heat up the platter to make it easier to isolate and flip a bit) required many millions of dollars to figure out how to do it. And when they started, no one knew if it was possible. Once they knew it was possible, creating a factory to build them was simple.
Building a fab costs ~$8bn now, does Intel spend that in research? They report (like everyone) R&D, but I bet the majority is D. Delivering a product is very different from making a component (like a platter) - the safety testing, reliability engineering and all the other elements of development are expensive and labour intensive.
You are missing the point.
You are thinking "expensive" is equal to "more money". Expensive, in this context, means far more than money. For example, risk. Sometimes company-ending risk.
I said "R" is expensive because it is often packaged with uncertainty. You have no idea if something is going to work or if people will even be receptive to the product.
Take SpaceX's landing rockets as an example. Hard and very expensive research. Lots of details nobody will ever know about. Lots of failures before success. And then, even with success, you have to make it repeatable and reliable.
One the "R" is done, "D" or building and scaling is, in relative terms, cheap.
Sure, it can cost billions to tilt-up a factory to build hard drives. Yet, you have a product and you have a market. You have an opportunity. You didn't have any of that before.
Wright Brothers: Hard and expensive R&D requiring YEARS of dedication. Once everyone knew you could build such planes (and how to do it) the "D" was cheap because it was done.
Sikorsky and helicopters is another AMAZING example of that. Helicopters got launched because of the Sikorsky's hard work and the unbelievable involvement of none other than Sergei Rachmaninoff (as in the pianist and composer) taking a leap and investing in the "R" that allowed Sikorsky to complete his work [0].
"R" is very expensive, in more than financial terms, that's why the Chinese copy rather than innovate.
That we are allowing them to get away with it is, well, disturbing.
[0] http://www.sikorskyarchives.com/Igor_Sikorsky_&_Sergei_Rachm...
You are thinking "expensive" is equal to "more money". Expensive, in this context, means far more than money. For example, risk. Sometimes company-ending risk.
I said "R" is expensive because it is often packaged with uncertainty. You have no idea if something is going to work or if people will even be receptive to the product.
Take SpaceX's landing rockets as an example. Hard and very expensive research. Lots of details nobody will ever know about. Lots of failures before success. And then, even with success, you have to make it repeatable and reliable.
One the "R" is done, "D" or building and scaling is, in relative terms, cheap.
Sure, it can cost billions to tilt-up a factory to build hard drives. Yet, you have a product and you have a market. You have an opportunity. You didn't have any of that before.
Wright Brothers: Hard and expensive R&D requiring YEARS of dedication. Once everyone knew you could build such planes (and how to do it) the "D" was cheap because it was done.
Sikorsky and helicopters is another AMAZING example of that. Helicopters got launched because of the Sikorsky's hard work and the unbelievable involvement of none other than Sergei Rachmaninoff (as in the pianist and composer) taking a leap and investing in the "R" that allowed Sikorsky to complete his work [0].
"R" is very expensive, in more than financial terms, that's why the Chinese copy rather than innovate.
That we are allowing them to get away with it is, well, disturbing.
[0] http://www.sikorskyarchives.com/Igor_Sikorsky_&_Sergei_Rachm...
My comment was
"I think R cost is low, creating a poc is about 100th of the cost of a product (a proper product) but the risk of R is huge and therefore it's very hard to sustain and justify."
Which I think you have provided some good supporting statements for. I must really be missing something here.. Not sure what though!
"I think R cost is low, creating a poc is about 100th of the cost of a product (a proper product) but the risk of R is huge and therefore it's very hard to sustain and justify."
Which I think you have provided some good supporting statements for. I must really be missing something here.. Not sure what though!
A bit tangential, but something fantastic it mentions is electronic payment. In China it's already like living in the future. Most shops accept WeChat or Alipay. Everything from chain supermarkets down to the old lady selling vegetables on the side of the road. They've really penetrated the market from top to bottom.
If you find a shop that does require cash, you can stop a stranger in the street and trade cash for WeChat money. Or as the article said, the shop staff themselves can sell you cash using their personal accounts.
I'm sure these services have to deal with their share of fraud but the system is fundamentally more secure than credit cards which rely on trust. So there's the potential for lower costs and wider availability. Who needs the expense of PCI compliance when you never have access to your customer's payment credentials? It seems bizarre to think that in paying by credit card, you're effectively giving the merchant the username and password to your bank account and asking them to please not take any more money than they promised to.
If you find a shop that does require cash, you can stop a stranger in the street and trade cash for WeChat money. Or as the article said, the shop staff themselves can sell you cash using their personal accounts.
I'm sure these services have to deal with their share of fraud but the system is fundamentally more secure than credit cards which rely on trust. So there's the potential for lower costs and wider availability. Who needs the expense of PCI compliance when you never have access to your customer's payment credentials? It seems bizarre to think that in paying by credit card, you're effectively giving the merchant the username and password to your bank account and asking them to please not take any more money than they promised to.
For a moment I have to check your username to make sure this is not my reply.
I am surprised how anyone can pay with discount in an APP call "dianping". For a two week trip in china, I found out even Taxi driver will accept my Wechat payment and they don't even know english.
I am surprised how anyone can pay with discount in an APP call "dianping". For a two week trip in china, I found out even Taxi driver will accept my Wechat payment and they don't even know english.
Do you know what their government's position on these currencies is?
They're completely above board. It's still the RMB currency just using and app to pass it around between people's app accounts and bank accounts. Bitcoin on the other hand is restricted I believe, so is exchanging RMB for foreign currencies.
> The next decade is going to be all about the relationship between China and the United States in technology, I want to be there to see it happen.
So does the author plan to move to Shenzhen, one of the world's most densely populated and polluted cities, in a country that doesn't have free speech?
I agree SZ has the best tech scene in China, perhaps due to its proximity to the freer Hong Kong, which has always been the major gateway to the west. I love SZ in many ways. But it takes a certain kind of person to want to live and work under those conditions and I doubt even the author himself plans to move there for the next 10 years.
So does the author plan to move to Shenzhen, one of the world's most densely populated and polluted cities, in a country that doesn't have free speech?
I agree SZ has the best tech scene in China, perhaps due to its proximity to the freer Hong Kong, which has always been the major gateway to the west. I love SZ in many ways. But it takes a certain kind of person to want to live and work under those conditions and I doubt even the author himself plans to move there for the next 10 years.
I've lived in Beijing for the last 8.5 years working in tech. We all thought the last decade was when everything was going to happen, and most of us were disappointed when it didn't. Granted, when I first moved here, the pollution wasn't as bad, the censorship wasn't as bad, but things changed. Perhaps China might start on an upward opening up trajectory again, but it has been closing up since 2008 (great if you want to be sheltered from foreign competition, bad if you want to practice your world game in an open market).
It's incredible how closed off they seem to be in general and how little mention it gets in most press coverage of the supposed Chinese miracle. For example, Ian from Dangerous Prototypes wrote a blog post about how difficult it is to import and export goods: http://dangerousprototypes.com/2016/02/04/how-to-china-impor... It's astoundingly bureaucratic and expensive.
Right. There is a perception that western media is biased on China, that they make china look worse than it is. But the opposite is actually true: China is much crazier and restrictive than what the western press presents (my guess is that no one would believe the reality).
> It's incredible how closed off they seem to be in general
It's not surprising if you think about the difference between free speech and having censorship laws that limit peasants. I learned that when I first traveled around Asia.
Your ability to be creative is limited in China. People there can't make art that makes fun of Mao. They can't protest against local police corruption. They can't form groups that appear to be anti-government. For all of this you can be tossed in jail for a few days. Jail is demoralizing and disruptive.
If your contribution to society comes through speech that the government does not like, you'll be put down. You'll end up less willing to contribute to society than Americans who hate their bosses. Instead of a bad boss, it's a bad country leader, and that's much much harder to get out from under.
I suppose one day everyone in China could just decide to go to jail peacefully; that would be unmanageable for the government.. it could take a lot of noise to get that message out and there is some risk of violence. Police sometimes see themselves as judge and jury, and in China where speaking can be against the law, violence against peaceful protesters is not unheard of even in 2016.
Before I came to Asia I did not think much about free speech. If you asked me what made America great before I moved here, I'd have said it's complex. I wasn't even sure America is great.
Now I would say it's more simple: true democratic governments are not allowed to throw people in jail for speaking their minds.
The first step China can take towards sustainable economic growth, better research and education, is to prevent the government from imprisoning people for speaking their minds. You really need as many people thinking creatively and working hard as possible in order to be competitive. Society is about working together and digging out the best ideas. It's not about silencing people.
Until then, expect to see the most intelligent Chinese continue to leave to live elsewhere, pollution to rage further out of control, and free countries' companies to come and go from China. China's judicial system is worse than the free countries' for the same reason.
It's not surprising if you think about the difference between free speech and having censorship laws that limit peasants. I learned that when I first traveled around Asia.
Your ability to be creative is limited in China. People there can't make art that makes fun of Mao. They can't protest against local police corruption. They can't form groups that appear to be anti-government. For all of this you can be tossed in jail for a few days. Jail is demoralizing and disruptive.
If your contribution to society comes through speech that the government does not like, you'll be put down. You'll end up less willing to contribute to society than Americans who hate their bosses. Instead of a bad boss, it's a bad country leader, and that's much much harder to get out from under.
I suppose one day everyone in China could just decide to go to jail peacefully; that would be unmanageable for the government.. it could take a lot of noise to get that message out and there is some risk of violence. Police sometimes see themselves as judge and jury, and in China where speaking can be against the law, violence against peaceful protesters is not unheard of even in 2016.
Before I came to Asia I did not think much about free speech. If you asked me what made America great before I moved here, I'd have said it's complex. I wasn't even sure America is great.
Now I would say it's more simple: true democratic governments are not allowed to throw people in jail for speaking their minds.
The first step China can take towards sustainable economic growth, better research and education, is to prevent the government from imprisoning people for speaking their minds. You really need as many people thinking creatively and working hard as possible in order to be competitive. Society is about working together and digging out the best ideas. It's not about silencing people.
Until then, expect to see the most intelligent Chinese continue to leave to live elsewhere, pollution to rage further out of control, and free countries' companies to come and go from China. China's judicial system is worse than the free countries' for the same reason.
Honestly, the major cities in China are all seriously polluted, but still the degrees vary. Compared to Beijing, Shenzhen's pollution is light, as well to other cities with population at that scale.
Nitpicking, but Shenzhen isn't one of the world's most polluted cities. Out of China's big four cities, it's the least polluted, and this is a reason why it recently ranked so highly among expats. It is definitely magnitudes less polluted than Beijing and Shanghai.
I worked for a big chinese telecom/networking company & went to SZ for about 6 months in 2008. I liked it a lot except for the language barrier but i was able manage with broken mandarin. At that time it was not that polluted when compared to Bangalore(India)
> one of the world's most densely populated and polluted cities
Shenzhen is most polluted?
Shenzhen is most polluted?
It's the least-polluted of any first-tier Chinese city, but it's still bad by western standards. When I lived there, I would gauge the day's pollution level by how difficult it was to see the mountains from my balcony through the smog.
I like how people always add the "no free speech" point. Have you ever been to China? When you go there you realize it's not more or less free than our countries. It's just in different areas.
Also I don't think the author means it that literally. He wants to be in this time, not locally close to the development I think. "there" = "The next decade"
Also I don't think the author means it that literally. He wants to be in this time, not locally close to the development I think. "there" = "The next decade"
No country has free speech. But in choosing a country, you can choose which types of speech you want to be allowed to make freely and which types you want to be protected from other people making.
America gets its free speech by defining the word to mean any communication that's permitted to be free. If the law disallows something then by definition it's not speech anymore, or it's an exception that's so obvious nobody mentions it. Examples: Flag burning, copyright infringement, libel, slander, threats, incitement to violence, child pornography, false advertising, revealing state secrets and trade secrets, violating NDAs, sharing insider information about listed companies. Wow, there's quite a lot of things you're not allowed to say in America!
It's a bit like Athenian democracy where everyone could vote. Of course women, children, slaves and foreigners obviously weren't part of "everyone" so there's no need to mention them.
America gets its free speech by defining the word to mean any communication that's permitted to be free. If the law disallows something then by definition it's not speech anymore, or it's an exception that's so obvious nobody mentions it. Examples: Flag burning, copyright infringement, libel, slander, threats, incitement to violence, child pornography, false advertising, revealing state secrets and trade secrets, violating NDAs, sharing insider information about listed companies. Wow, there's quite a lot of things you're not allowed to say in America!
It's a bit like Athenian democracy where everyone could vote. Of course women, children, slaves and foreigners obviously weren't part of "everyone" so there's no need to mention them.
That's pretty cynical. Its disingenuous to suggest 'free speech' ever meant free to lie and hurt other people. The freedom is intended to mean 'free to criticize the government', as that was called sedition in past ages.
>he freedom is intended to mean 'free to criticize the government', as that was called sedition in past ages.
And then the US has these: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_speech_zone
Also sedition seems to still be illegal in the US: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedition#United_States
And then the US has these: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_speech_zone
Also sedition seems to still be illegal in the US: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedition#United_States
flag burning isn't illegal.
Most of what you listed is not allowed most countries + more restrictions. Compared to most other countries America has fewest restrictions.
Most of what you listed is not allowed most countries + more restrictions. Compared to most other countries America has fewest restrictions.
That's good news for freedom. It seems flag burning was illegal before 1990, and very nearly became illegal again a couple of years ago.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_Protection_Act
It's true most other countries have even less freedom of speech, but my point was that it's not black and white. Each country is different and none are very free at all. It should be called "fairly free political speech as long as you aren't too specific in calling for overthrow of the government" or a briefer form of that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_Protection_Act
It's true most other countries have even less freedom of speech, but my point was that it's not black and white. Each country is different and none are very free at all. It should be called "fairly free political speech as long as you aren't too specific in calling for overthrow of the government" or a briefer form of that.
I have been in China this and last February and feel this article represents the development well. One of the bug strenghts of the US of the last 20 years was the internet dominance. But the western world struggles to get the mobile internet to a point where it should be. On the other hand China's internet grew up with mobile phones. Many people have never owned a desktop computer, maybe only know it from internet cafes. Their first internet access was with their chat app QQ on Nokia phones at a time the first smartphones came up in the western hemisphere (about 2010). Also Chinese people are less concerned about privacy and more open to try crazy new things with their phones. All that together with a locked in marked that can't be overrun by US startups makes China slowly but surely beat the western market.
I certainly miss to pay stuff by phone or add contacts by just scanning their QR Code (without an extra app my iphone can't even add a normal contact from a business card with QR Code, despite the data in that code probably using the Apple created digital business card format).
I certainly miss to pay stuff by phone or add contacts by just scanning their QR Code (without an extra app my iphone can't even add a normal contact from a business card with QR Code, despite the data in that code probably using the Apple created digital business card format).
I can pay for stuff with my phone in Denmark. The system is widely used, and preferred by many small merchants. I assume the fees are lower.
The UK implements the same system, but there's very little marketing for it. Most people don't seem to know if exists. The little advertising there is, suggests the system is for paying back friends, not businesses. I assume the banks don't want to lose the cut they get from every credit card transaction.
The UK implements the same system, but there's very little marketing for it. Most people don't seem to know if exists. The little advertising there is, suggests the system is for paying back friends, not businesses. I assume the banks don't want to lose the cut they get from every credit card transaction.
Yes, but the privacy bit is wrong. Chinese as all asians are very concerned about privacy and government spies patrolling and censoring their free internet space.
There are a lot of invite-only app spaces, and you trust the one you see, but not a random internet guy. It's less about politics, more about government track down of "porn" (=prostitution) and corruption.
There are a lot of invite-only app spaces, and you trust the one you see, but not a random internet guy. It's less about politics, more about government track down of "porn" (=prostitution) and corruption.
Sorry, I don't understand it yet. In China most people use QQ and Wechat. Nobody even thinks about that the government is reading their messages as well. It's not a discussion point, neither behind closed doors nor in the open.
"you trust the one you see, but not a random internet guy" the one I see where? What invite-only spaces you know? Afaik everybody uses Wechat and other chat apps are mostly disregarded.
"you trust the one you see, but not a random internet guy" the one I see where? What invite-only spaces you know? Afaik everybody uses Wechat and other chat apps are mostly disregarded.
For those interested, there's also a great post by InstaPainting about Dafen: How do you paint 10,000 paintings a month? https://www.instapainting.com/blog/company/2015/10/28/how-to...
From my personal experience, their software is absolutely atrocious. Talk to anyone who has built more than a toy app using their SDK and you'll be regaled with stores of insane hacks. For example, at least in the Phantom 2 days, they didn't provide any method to determine the capabilities or model number of the quadcopter that you were controlling. As a result, my friend's company had a hack that would rotate the camera gimbal until it hit a limit stop and use that angle to determine the model.
On the flip side, their "range extender", a required component if you want to talk to a Phantom 2 from an Android/iOS device, is really just an OpenWRT router acting as a 802.11g bridge.
There's a lot to be said about improving quality of Chinese hardware and software, but it's definitely not up to western quality levels yet.