Fish and (micro)chips: Why I’m relatively relaxed about robots(bankunderground.co.uk)
bankunderground.co.uk
Fish and (micro)chips: Why I’m relatively relaxed about robots
https://bankunderground.co.uk/2016/10/10/fish-and-microchips-why-im-relatively-relaxed-about-robots/
6 comments
The problem is not automation of jobs. The problem is that developed countries don’t need to consume as much as they used to. We can reallocate jobs until a certain point, but if we catch more fish that we need, we will eventually reach unemployment.
A league of fish catching nations, (who knows, maybe they will call themselves the Organization of Fish Exporting Countries, or OFEC) will form and they will control fish catching operations.
TL/DR:
After 900 words, he realizes the question is when machines can exceed human intelligence. Then, he concludes that there's no way it can happen in 40-50 years[1], based on, apparently, the opinion of a couple other economists.
> Perhaps automation will be qualitatively different ... because robots will have a cognitive function...
> But the million dollar question is whether this change in substitutability will occur, and if so, how fast...
> Perhaps in the distant future robots might displace large swathes of human labour. But unless there are rapid advances in medicine or time travel, I fear I won’t be there to see it…
[1] looking at his CV he appears to be 40ish, that's where I get an implied 40-50 year time horizon http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/researcher...
After 900 words, he realizes the question is when machines can exceed human intelligence. Then, he concludes that there's no way it can happen in 40-50 years[1], based on, apparently, the opinion of a couple other economists.
> Perhaps automation will be qualitatively different ... because robots will have a cognitive function...
> But the million dollar question is whether this change in substitutability will occur, and if so, how fast...
> Perhaps in the distant future robots might displace large swathes of human labour. But unless there are rapid advances in medicine or time travel, I fear I won’t be there to see it…
[1] looking at his CV he appears to be 40ish, that's where I get an implied 40-50 year time horizon http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/researcher...
Or alternative TL/DR:
Economist has read about the concept of the outside world.
Economist has read about the concept of the outside world.
This guy is delusional and ignores inconvenient facts. Such as there being limited fish, and a limited appetite for fish.
Congrats, John Lewis. In your attempt to convince me automation isn't going to be too disruptive, you've instead nudged me towards the opposing opinion.
Congrats, John Lewis. In your attempt to convince me automation isn't going to be too disruptive, you've instead nudged me towards the opposing opinion.
Hmm yeah thats true. But since the industrial revolution there has been a lot of changes. Especially in the way of infrastructure and communication. Industrial revolution took 50 years, the advent of the smartphone has only taken 5 years.