Ask HN: Are we still in a tech bubble?
Haven’t heard people talk about that in a while. Has is just been overshadowed by the block chain bubble, or was there never really a bubble at all? Maybe it came in for a soft landing? Could it be that the media got tired of that story and it’s actually worse than ever and ready to pop?
17 comments
Bubbles, like Recessions, are designated with certainty as having occurred, only a few months after they have occurred.
Mainstream media will always have stories like this every few months, because it creates F.U.D (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) which is a beast that feeds itself, with the end result that the stories get 100s and 1000s of pageviews in a matter of days = ad $ converted for said media outlet.
This is very similar to how the sports section teams of major news outlets declare that "Boxing is Dead" after every top boxer retires. They did it after Ali retired, after Tyson retired and most recently, after Floyd Mayweather retired. But Boxing is still alive and well to this day, even if viewership has dwindled from that in the 80s.
Related: Larry Merchant still writes letters to the local paper. This one is to the LA Times after their "Boxing is Dead" Article https://twitter.com/steveucnlive/status/779413847102722048
Mainstream media will always have stories like this every few months, because it creates F.U.D (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) which is a beast that feeds itself, with the end result that the stories get 100s and 1000s of pageviews in a matter of days = ad $ converted for said media outlet.
This is very similar to how the sports section teams of major news outlets declare that "Boxing is Dead" after every top boxer retires. They did it after Ali retired, after Tyson retired and most recently, after Floyd Mayweather retired. But Boxing is still alive and well to this day, even if viewership has dwindled from that in the 80s.
Related: Larry Merchant still writes letters to the local paper. This one is to the LA Times after their "Boxing is Dead" Article https://twitter.com/steveucnlive/status/779413847102722048
When I think tech bubble I think of the dot.com years in the 90s. We're way passed that... The internet remains the driving force and backbone of any future tech.
If you think in terms of where the internet was, is and is going - you'll see there's plenty of juice left...
Internet v1.0 was primarily the internet of "links". V2.0 - which we're at the tail end of now - is the social network and connecting people. (I'm appropriating this "versioning" concept from something I heard or read - can't remember where)
We're on the verge of Internet 3.0 and there are multiple driving forces that will shape it: 1. cryptocurrency and decentralization of payments 2. blockchain and decentralization of ledgers 3. IoT 4. AI enhancements ... (non-exhaustive list & should be taken with a grain of salt as the things we think will be big never do end up being so... )
The focus on technologies that support decentralization and network resiliency will most probably continue - especially with net neutrality repeal.
If you think in terms of where the internet was, is and is going - you'll see there's plenty of juice left...
Internet v1.0 was primarily the internet of "links". V2.0 - which we're at the tail end of now - is the social network and connecting people. (I'm appropriating this "versioning" concept from something I heard or read - can't remember where)
We're on the verge of Internet 3.0 and there are multiple driving forces that will shape it: 1. cryptocurrency and decentralization of payments 2. blockchain and decentralization of ledgers 3. IoT 4. AI enhancements ... (non-exhaustive list & should be taken with a grain of salt as the things we think will be big never do end up being so... )
The focus on technologies that support decentralization and network resiliency will most probably continue - especially with net neutrality repeal.
It doesn't feel like a tech bubble really. The recent crop of unicorns may not be as successful as FB/Google but besides theranos they're making good money. Most are busy burning free cash so there might be layoffs when/if that runs out. But these aren't the vaporware companies of the 99 bubble, they all make a lot of money.
Except magic leap...
Cryptocurrency sure as hell feels like a bubble. My friends grandma was asking him how to invest over Christmas....
Except magic leap...
Cryptocurrency sure as hell feels like a bubble. My friends grandma was asking him how to invest over Christmas....
The global financial system is in the midst of an everything bubble, and so in comparison to everything else, the tech bubble looks less significant than a year ago.
The current regime wont last long if US inflation picks up in 2018, which is likely but not certain.
The current regime wont last long if US inflation picks up in 2018, which is likely but not certain.
We're in a VC bubble. Tons of ideas are getting funded that have virtually no likelihood of producing any return.
I would guess that this bubble will fizzle rather than pop. When the pop begins, the VCs themselves will rather abruptly find it difficult to raise money for their next funds.
This will make it far more difficult for startups to raise or re-raise, but there won't be a sudden mass extinction. We'll see many fewer getting off the ground; and those that have already raised seed or series A will for the most part spend out their runway and then die quietly.
Unlike in the first dot-com bubble, nearly all startups in this wave have customers other than other startups, so we'll see some companies struggle but less of a domino effect.
I would guess that this bubble will fizzle rather than pop. When the pop begins, the VCs themselves will rather abruptly find it difficult to raise money for their next funds.
This will make it far more difficult for startups to raise or re-raise, but there won't be a sudden mass extinction. We'll see many fewer getting off the ground; and those that have already raised seed or series A will for the most part spend out their runway and then die quietly.
Unlike in the first dot-com bubble, nearly all startups in this wave have customers other than other startups, so we'll see some companies struggle but less of a domino effect.
My go-to example for this is Yik Yak, which raised >$70 million before introducing features that drove their users away. I don't understand how that much money could be justified given the feature set of the app, though I'm inevitably underestimating the cost of scaling.
They had something good while it lasted. On college campuses, it essentially functioned as an open chatroom for large classes. Of course, most of the fun was at the expense of the professor. That and random trolling.
Being connected to every college campus in America with minimal friction? Yeah that's worth $70 million.
Everything is a bubble:
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/editorial/infographic-the-ev...
This whole thing will come down to how the Quantitive Easing winds up:
http://www.livemint.com/Money/hyDe0jAEnml43F1kd2FzhJ/Feds-Gr...
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/editorial/infographic-the-ev...
This whole thing will come down to how the Quantitive Easing winds up:
http://www.livemint.com/Money/hyDe0jAEnml43F1kd2FzhJ/Feds-Gr...
Nah, it's deflating in a relatively soft landing, though returns for most VC funds in the next few years are probably going to suck.
Most bubbles only really affect the people who buy in at an inflated price (the 2009 mortgage crash was an exception because there was so much counterparty risk that it nearly took down the whole financial system). Dot-com bubble made several retail investors lose their life savings, but if you didn't invest in dot-coms and didn't work for them, you probably weren't affected. Web 2.0 bubble meant that several young founders (myself included) had to go get real jobs. The mobile bubble is going to hurt the funds & accelerators that invested in these companies, and they may not be able to raise again, but outside them most people will go on with their lives.
Crypto bubble will likely be the same - folks who buy in at an inflated price now can expect to lose everything they invest, but losses will be limited to that. I know a bunch of people who have invested (again, myself included), but don't know of anyone who's put in money they can't afford to lose. I've heard it's different in South Korea.
Most bubbles only really affect the people who buy in at an inflated price (the 2009 mortgage crash was an exception because there was so much counterparty risk that it nearly took down the whole financial system). Dot-com bubble made several retail investors lose their life savings, but if you didn't invest in dot-coms and didn't work for them, you probably weren't affected. Web 2.0 bubble meant that several young founders (myself included) had to go get real jobs. The mobile bubble is going to hurt the funds & accelerators that invested in these companies, and they may not be able to raise again, but outside them most people will go on with their lives.
Crypto bubble will likely be the same - folks who buy in at an inflated price now can expect to lose everything they invest, but losses will be limited to that. I know a bunch of people who have invested (again, myself included), but don't know of anyone who's put in money they can't afford to lose. I've heard it's different in South Korea.
I think the bubbles have moved to blockchain, AI, and big data. Apps and dot com have solved many of the low hanging problems, but there are plenty more to solve or improve on.
Interestingly, people are solving these problems in the form of "side projects". Perhaps this means that the remaining problems don't work with the 'unicorn' VC model, but can make some solo founder a millionaire on their own.
Interestingly, people are solving these problems in the form of "side projects". Perhaps this means that the remaining problems don't work with the 'unicorn' VC model, but can make some solo founder a millionaire on their own.
Tech appears to be going through a relatively soft landing at the moment. The past few years have seen a series A crunch affect the VC and startup worlds. More recently, the cult of the startup founder has started to crack with ethics, sexual harassment and poor behavior.
I suspect it is more likely that the bubble was way overestimated by the media in the past.
Yes, buzzword driven business.