Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports(stdio.sangwhan.com)
stdio.sangwhan.com
Problems with Japan's Covid-19 reports
https://stdio.sangwhan.com/wtf-japan-covid-19-report/
198 comments
We can help with the automation of data extraction from all those regional websites into a single google sheet and save volunteers’ time.
I’d be happy to donate scraping capacity to this project. If this is relevant ping me at omar@ domain from my profile.
I’d be happy to donate scraping capacity to this project. If this is relevant ping me at omar@ domain from my profile.
I wish there was something like this for the UK!
This isn't quite as pretty but is fairly good: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c9...
This is fantastic, terrific way to visualize this information. It's interesting that Hokkaido is red for infections but the growth rate is really slow. Are the distant prefectures less likely to follow guidelines from Tokyo and reporting more honestly?
>It's interesting that Hokkaido is red for infections but the growth rate is really slow.
Hokkaido is about the size of South Carolina and approximate population of 6 million people. ~2.5M of which live in Sapporo. Most of the island is more rural with many tourist destinations. It's a popular destination for Chinese tourists in winter.
>Are the distant prefectures less likely to follow guidelines from Tokyo
Tokyo was seen as mostly following Hokkaido governor's lead early on. Hokkaido was the first to close schools, etc.
>and reporting more honestly?
Could HN dwellers stop implying Japan is handling this dishonestly? That is extremely rude coming from the nation whose CDC was angry to accept 14 infected citizens from the only ally nation that would accept their US Diamond Princess cruise ship and provide care for passengers.
Hokkaido is about the size of South Carolina and approximate population of 6 million people. ~2.5M of which live in Sapporo. Most of the island is more rural with many tourist destinations. It's a popular destination for Chinese tourists in winter.
>Are the distant prefectures less likely to follow guidelines from Tokyo
Tokyo was seen as mostly following Hokkaido governor's lead early on. Hokkaido was the first to close schools, etc.
>and reporting more honestly?
Could HN dwellers stop implying Japan is handling this dishonestly? That is extremely rude coming from the nation whose CDC was angry to accept 14 infected citizens from the only ally nation that would accept their US Diamond Princess cruise ship and provide care for passengers.
> Could HN dwellers stop implying Japan is handling this dishonestly?
They are. The incredible rate of test refusal here is keeping the numbers very low.
They are. The incredible rate of test refusal here is keeping the numbers very low.
"Test refusal" is a very bad metric. Almost no countries are testing anyone who suspects they might be infected. A lot of European countries actually have more restrictive guidelines than Japan - Norway won't even test people arriving from COVID-19 hotspots if they only exhibit minor symptoms.
In Japan 6-7% of the tests come back positive. This is not at all indicative of too little testing.
In Japan 6-7% of the tests come back positive. This is not at all indicative of too little testing.
Really? What is the rate of test refusal Shane Reustle?
Please do not cross into personal attack.
Asking for the "incredible" rate of test refusal is not a personal attack. Calling Japanese stupid is not okay, but you don't warn the person who does it. You warn the person who takes the bait. You then retaliate by warning me only after I call you out on it.
Shouting fire in a crowded theater is not free speech. What you are doing here is not protected.
Shouting fire in a crowded theater is not free speech. What you are doing here is not protected.
Nobody called the Japanese stupid. You chose to interpret it that way. Actually, I understand how it could feel that way, and I empathize. But take a look again: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22730110. It didn't say that. What it did do was repeat an internet cliché [1] in a lazy way. That made it an unsubstantive comment, and an unsubstantive comment on an inflammatory topic is basically always flamebait (as I pointed out to another user earlier today: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22739350).
You've unfortunately been posting to HN quite a bit in the flamewar style. Would you please stop doing that? I realize that these topics are sensitive and hit sore spots all too easily. That's one reason the site guidelines include: "Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith." It isn't easy, but it's necessary that we all do it, because otherwise we just end up fighting with each other. Fighting each other feels urgent, but is not interesting, and the purpose of HN is to be an intellectually interesting place on the internet, if possible. This requires that we sort of resist the worst interpretations of each other's words, because they're so often vulnerable to misunderstanding.
By the way, in case you're not familiar with so-called Hanlon's Razor [1], it's not primarily about stupidity. It's really a way of saying that most human outcomes are not the result of malice. So in a way, that post was a (weak and unclear) defense of the Japanese institutions and reports that were being discussed above—a way of arguing that they weren't conscious bad action. The word 'stupidity' appears in that proverb partly out of ironic humor which is typical of the internet subculture that produced it, since it's ironic to defend someone against the charge of malice by making the charge of stupidity instead. It's not intended as the deep insult that the word 'stupidity' would imply in many cultural contexts. If you already know this, I apologize.
There is an additional level also. The word 'stupidity' in that proverb would not normally be a national or racial slur. It usually refers to the 'stupidity' of large institutions, which tend to produce inefficient or inadequate results even when the individuals who make up the institution are doing their best—or to the 'stupidity' of bureaucratic functionaries, who hacker-type people tend to feel superior to and smarter than. If you look at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22556236, you'll see exactly the same argument applied to Spain's Covid-19 response. If anyone is being criticized as stupid in those comments, it's not peoples like the Spanish or the Japanese, it's mid-level government officials everywhere. Whether that's fair or not, we can leave as a separate question.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor
You've unfortunately been posting to HN quite a bit in the flamewar style. Would you please stop doing that? I realize that these topics are sensitive and hit sore spots all too easily. That's one reason the site guidelines include: "Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith." It isn't easy, but it's necessary that we all do it, because otherwise we just end up fighting with each other. Fighting each other feels urgent, but is not interesting, and the purpose of HN is to be an intellectually interesting place on the internet, if possible. This requires that we sort of resist the worst interpretations of each other's words, because they're so often vulnerable to misunderstanding.
By the way, in case you're not familiar with so-called Hanlon's Razor [1], it's not primarily about stupidity. It's really a way of saying that most human outcomes are not the result of malice. So in a way, that post was a (weak and unclear) defense of the Japanese institutions and reports that were being discussed above—a way of arguing that they weren't conscious bad action. The word 'stupidity' appears in that proverb partly out of ironic humor which is typical of the internet subculture that produced it, since it's ironic to defend someone against the charge of malice by making the charge of stupidity instead. It's not intended as the deep insult that the word 'stupidity' would imply in many cultural contexts. If you already know this, I apologize.
There is an additional level also. The word 'stupidity' in that proverb would not normally be a national or racial slur. It usually refers to the 'stupidity' of large institutions, which tend to produce inefficient or inadequate results even when the individuals who make up the institution are doing their best—or to the 'stupidity' of bureaucratic functionaries, who hacker-type people tend to feel superior to and smarter than. If you look at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22556236, you'll see exactly the same argument applied to Spain's Covid-19 response. If anyone is being criticized as stupid in those comments, it's not peoples like the Spanish or the Japanese, it's mid-level government officials everywhere. Whether that's fair or not, we can leave as a separate question.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor
I found tabula or camelot to be pretty good at extracting tables from pdf. I worked on a few JP's gov PDFs and they are not fancy so that's nice. Some light post-processing is still needed but the automation probably will keep working if the PDF format doesn't change (big if of course).
Out of curiosity, how would you compare your work with that of Johns Hopkins[1]? Your numbers for Japan seem fairly similar to theirs.
[1] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
[1] https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Do yall know if how many deaths were from critical cases, I'm assuming some deaths were determined post mortem from people who did not receive critical care. The UK published numbers showing 50% survival rate for people who had to get admitted to the ICU so a surface reading of the stats on the page might indicated a 5 % survival rate in Japan or no relationship at all depending upon interpretation.
Knowing Japan, I bet some poor freshly graduated but elite sod in the health ministry was, out of the blue, told by his boss "here's a bunch of reports from different prefectures. Make a report out of them." So he goes off and try to make sense of the data, which is why you see those magic and unexplained equations in the report.
The kicker is the most complex computer thing he ever did in his life was that Word presentation in university. HTML? Isn't that something you write by hand?
The kicker is the most complex computer thing he ever did in his life was that Word presentation in university. HTML? Isn't that something you write by hand?
I've opened Japanese documents from, AFAIR, at least the Ministry of Immigration, the Ministry of Health/Labour/Welfare and the Ministry of Justice. They all had the similar properties: manual HTML in the best case, PDF in the worst case. Tables very often with hierarchical data. Lack of overall coherence. It's so similar between Ministries that I have to wonder if it's not just the result of some Japanese governmental directive, or the result of their Education system.
It sounds like they just organize information differently. It's annoying to us but it's just how they do it.
Everyone reading this needs to have a more wholesome historical education. The best example I can think of is read historical math puzzles, or geometry lessons from ancient greece. Organization of information is definitely culturally contingent, even here in the US.
Everyone reading this needs to have a more wholesome historical education. The best example I can think of is read historical math puzzles, or geometry lessons from ancient greece. Organization of information is definitely culturally contingent, even here in the US.
HTML? Isn't that something you write by hand?
In a good number of very large (Fortune 100) companies, yes. Even in large tech companies.
Just as mechanical lathes and nail guns didn't put carpenters out of business, there are plenty of web sites that benefit from the attention of human hands, not just trusting the latest fad framework to concatenate several thousand dependencies pulled from random GitHub repositories.
In a good number of very large (Fortune 100) companies, yes. Even in large tech companies.
Just as mechanical lathes and nail guns didn't put carpenters out of business, there are plenty of web sites that benefit from the attention of human hands, not just trusting the latest fad framework to concatenate several thousand dependencies pulled from random GitHub repositories.
Having looked at a lot of machine-generated HTML, "by hand" is still looking pretty good.
Incidentally, I always though that in animes it is often a big deal for a character to catch "a cold" because plot; unless their cold are actually more aggressive than western colds (or flues)? I wonder more and more which one it is.
>to catch "a cold"
Not to mention that mere exposure to inclement weather is enough to result in its onset, germ theory be damned
Not to mention that mere exposure to inclement weather is enough to result in its onset, germ theory be damned
My mom is responsible for updating all of Los Angeles' numbers. It's literally "someone sent an email with updated new numbers, put them on the government website/in the database". There's no "making sense of the data" phase, just copy, paste, and hope whoever delivered those numbers did it correctly. She described the situation "all hands on deck, extra shifts, and losing staff to sickness daily"; the last thing they care about is some number on a screen.
There's nothing wrong with that - in a peculiar situation, wherein there is no 'standard web site' something ad-hoc is perfectly reasonable.
In the 'old days,' it would be a public number board or chalkboard, but it would be accurate. This is what a lot of ladies in the military or in operational centers would have done.
And definitely nothing wrong with hand-tweaked HTML. I wish sites were basic enough and HTML clear enough that it could be more pervasive.
You can dig up ledgers from 'old-timey' 100-year-old from little stores in the middle of nowhere that were handwritten and perfect. Perfect handwriting, perfectly updated, perfect math (i.e. adds up after corrections).
What matters is that the process is legit, that people are responsible for how the numbers are propagated, and they do it professionally.
It's almost weird to think that people expect that there is a 'robust and specific electronic process' for everything.
The level of organizational planning in WW2 was pretty shocking: all docs, notes, cue-cards, human process.
In the 'old days,' it would be a public number board or chalkboard, but it would be accurate. This is what a lot of ladies in the military or in operational centers would have done.
And definitely nothing wrong with hand-tweaked HTML. I wish sites were basic enough and HTML clear enough that it could be more pervasive.
You can dig up ledgers from 'old-timey' 100-year-old from little stores in the middle of nowhere that were handwritten and perfect. Perfect handwriting, perfectly updated, perfect math (i.e. adds up after corrections).
What matters is that the process is legit, that people are responsible for how the numbers are propagated, and they do it professionally.
It's almost weird to think that people expect that there is a 'robust and specific electronic process' for everything.
The level of organizational planning in WW2 was pretty shocking: all docs, notes, cue-cards, human process.
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While things like masks and social distancing are more likely to be already in place in Japanese culture, there definitely seems to be a bit of a surprise regarding actual numbers vs. means put in place to prevent the spread.
The reports seem to reflect the opacity of communication of Japan's situation about the Covid-19. It's good that the author put out actionable suggestions at the end, but I'm wondering if the opacity is a result of internal issues or intended opacity. Makes me glad to see Canada's stats[1] being so clear in comparison.
[1] https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/201...
The reports seem to reflect the opacity of communication of Japan's situation about the Covid-19. It's good that the author put out actionable suggestions at the end, but I'm wondering if the opacity is a result of internal issues or intended opacity. Makes me glad to see Canada's stats[1] being so clear in comparison.
[1] https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/201...
The strategy here is clearly fighting Covid-19 with 'Security through obscurity'.
I am extremely suspicious that Japan's numbers look good because they have not been testing enough.
Given that honesty in testing consistently precedes the eventual slowdown in deaths by several weeks, I strongly suspect that Japan is maliciously incompetent and a lot of dead Japanese will be the result.
Given that honesty in testing consistently precedes the eventual slowdown in deaths by several weeks, I strongly suspect that Japan is maliciously incompetent and a lot of dead Japanese will be the result.
" I strongly suspect that Japan is maliciously incompetent and a lot of dead Japanese will be the result."
When? Japan has had this coronavirus a lot longer than most places. If we expected the transmission rate to explode, we would have expected it to happen already, and we would be seeing the consequences.
When? Japan has had this coronavirus a lot longer than most places. If we expected the transmission rate to explode, we would have expected it to happen already, and we would be seeing the consequences.
I think this is the point. You can hide potentially the sick but you can't hide deaths or overcrowding of hospitals, someone will notice.
Japan may be an exception to that general rule. Most places, sick people go to the hospitals and die there. In Japan, sick people stay home, die, and are often only discovered a long time later.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kodokushi is the Wikipedia article on it. It is hard to get statistics on it, but in 2006 close to 5% of all funerals in Japan were old people who died at home that nobody knew about for some time afterwards.
When all is said and done, Japanese will be discovering bodies for years afterwards. Not just because there is a crisis, but because that is simply how a lot of deaths happen in Japan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kodokushi is the Wikipedia article on it. It is hard to get statistics on it, but in 2006 close to 5% of all funerals in Japan were old people who died at home that nobody knew about for some time afterwards.
When all is said and done, Japanese will be discovering bodies for years afterwards. Not just because there is a crisis, but because that is simply how a lot of deaths happen in Japan.
Are you sure we aren't seeing consequences?
https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronavirus-explainers/2020/3/2... shows that I am hardly alone in my suspicion that the numbers look good because reality is not being tracked.
https://www.vox.com/covid-19-coronavirus-explainers/2020/3/2... shows that I am hardly alone in my suspicion that the numbers look good because reality is not being tracked.
It looks Tokyo is starting to have an out break
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-tokyo-olymp...
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-nw-tokyo-olymp...
The most interesting point in that article is that Japanese citizens and politicians are suspicious of the timing. All numbers looked good until the Olympics were called off. Then Japan started reporting climbing cases and talking about emergency.
I certainly hope that the politicians in Parliament who asked questions got satisfactory answers. I doubt that they did, but there should be time to ask those same questions later when there is a clearer picture.
I just hope it isn't as bad as I fear it will be.
I certainly hope that the politicians in Parliament who asked questions got satisfactory answers. I doubt that they did, but there should be time to ask those same questions later when there is a clearer picture.
I just hope it isn't as bad as I fear it will be.
> All numbers looked good until the Olympics were called off. Then Japan started reporting climbing cases and talking about emergency.
Typical causation versus correlation problem. Exponentially increasing pandemic outside Japan can also be the cause for everything: the olympics cancellation, the increasing govt concern and testing, and the sudden surge of cases within Japan from travelers.
No conspiracies needed.
Typical causation versus correlation problem. Exponentially increasing pandemic outside Japan can also be the cause for everything: the olympics cancellation, the increasing govt concern and testing, and the sudden surge of cases within Japan from travelers.
No conspiracies needed.
First of all, lack of testing and government denials that there is a problem here been a hallmark of the response worldwide. It is hardly a conspiracy theory to say that it happened in Japan as well.
Secondly for a couple of weeks now I've been running across articles of the form, "Japan should have had a problem by now, why are they an exception?" Which is more likely? That they were an exception until now, or that the Olympics provided extra motivation to stonewall?
It is clearly not proof. But extra motivation to fail to try to detect their own problem combined with reason to doubt their version of reality (in the same way that happened over and over again elsewhere) makes my estimate of the conditional probability very high that their government was simply a bit more deliberately blind than elsewhere.
And, as with everywhere else, the cost will be dead citizens. Only the further you let the problem go and the older your population, the worse it is. Japan has the highest concentration of truly old in the world. And may have let it go longer than anywhere else. The result? The final body toll won't be pretty.
Secondly for a couple of weeks now I've been running across articles of the form, "Japan should have had a problem by now, why are they an exception?" Which is more likely? That they were an exception until now, or that the Olympics provided extra motivation to stonewall?
It is clearly not proof. But extra motivation to fail to try to detect their own problem combined with reason to doubt their version of reality (in the same way that happened over and over again elsewhere) makes my estimate of the conditional probability very high that their government was simply a bit more deliberately blind than elsewhere.
And, as with everywhere else, the cost will be dead citizens. Only the further you let the problem go and the older your population, the worse it is. Japan has the highest concentration of truly old in the world. And may have let it go longer than anywhere else. The result? The final body toll won't be pretty.
"What is the cost of lies? It’s not that we will mistake them for the truth. The real danger is that, if we hear enough lies, then we no longer recognize the truth at all. What can we do then? What else is left but to abandon even the hope of truth and content ourselves instead with stories? In these stories, it doesn’t matter who the heroes are. All we want to know is who is to blame."
I feel like we're watching Chernobyl play out in real time here.
I feel like we're watching Chernobyl play out in real time here.
Japan's numbers are probably low because of limited testing. Still somewhat reasonable to compare against countries that also have limited testing.
Regarding the presentation of the data, I've seem enough poorly formatted presentations over the years to say that is unique to Japan.
Regarding the presentation of the data, I've seem enough poorly formatted presentations over the years to say that is unique to Japan.
Some anecdata here:
My friends run a mid-sized hair salon, about 8 workstations, on the west side of Tokyo [edit: Kichijoji] and are still operating. They see no reason to close down, haven't been told to close down by anyone, and although their business is down, it's still brisk.
Meanwhile the shops are full of both people and stock (except for loo roll).
Some young people in Tokyo have been returning by shinkansen to their parents' homes in the countryside (which is obviously a dreadfully bad idea). I persuaded my friends not to do that, but they were thinking about it.
My friends run a mid-sized hair salon, about 8 workstations, on the west side of Tokyo [edit: Kichijoji] and are still operating. They see no reason to close down, haven't been told to close down by anyone, and although their business is down, it's still brisk.
Meanwhile the shops are full of both people and stock (except for loo roll).
Some young people in Tokyo have been returning by shinkansen to their parents' homes in the countryside (which is obviously a dreadfully bad idea). I persuaded my friends not to do that, but they were thinking about it.
Tokyo was mostly closed this weekend. IIRC by government request. TV shows showed all of Ginza closed. I walked down to Shibuya on Saturday, had one errand to run, it was mostly empty. Every chain store I passed was closed with a notice in the window. All the stores on the 4th floor of Mark City were closed. The basement food stores were open but the number of people were ~10th normal.
I agree though that until recently things were pretty open. Maybe they were open again today. I walked by a coffee shop and people were in it. The local Target like store was busy but main street in front of it was dead compared to normal.
I agree though that until recently things were pretty open. Maybe they were open again today. I walked by a coffee shop and people were in it. The local Target like store was busy but main street in front of it was dead compared to normal.
Their salon is in Kichijoji which is not really central, as in well west along the Chuo line. I updated the original comment above.
I'm interested if you know more about this absurd-sounding Aso/wagyu beef tokens story? It's not reported at all in the western media.
I'm interested if you know more about this absurd-sounding Aso/wagyu beef tokens story? It's not reported at all in the western media.
> I'm interested if you know more about this absurd-sounding Aso/wagyu beef tokens story? It's not reported at all in the western media.
This sounds strange enough for me to want to know more, and I tried looking it up, but only found weird porn when searching without quotes, and weird blockchain stuff from China when searching with quotes. Do you have any links I can run through a translator?
This sounds strange enough for me to want to know more, and I tried looking it up, but only found weird porn when searching without quotes, and weird blockchain stuff from China when searching with quotes. Do you have any links I can run through a translator?
Basically, they claim to distribute a Wagyu beef discount coupon. Terrible idea because ... people would want to go out to buy one...
At the end of the day, hiding exponential growth of this is impossible.
That's what really bugs me about those who love to point fingers at how this or that country is counting things wrong (often revealing their biases in the process).
Maybe every country has a random constant factor between actual cases and reported cases. But it doesn't matter - if it goes exponential, we'll know.
That's what really bugs me about those who love to point fingers at how this or that country is counting things wrong (often revealing their biases in the process).
Maybe every country has a random constant factor between actual cases and reported cases. But it doesn't matter - if it goes exponential, we'll know.
Yes, obviously once it goes exponential, exponentials are hard to hide. The point is to stop it before it goes exponential. That's why people were discussing, say, Iran or NYC testing problems and lack of social distancing, rather than saying "well, at the end of the day, hiding exponential growth is impossible, so who cares"...
My hypothesis is that the "with no symptoms" and "with symptoms" items actually do include deaths.
> Remember to not include death, because this is a quasi-hierarchy. The table tempts you to, but it's excluded. (The quasi-nature is because it is under the PCR tested positive umbrella on level 2.) So what about integrating level 3?
> That's simple. You don't. Because no matter how hard you try, the numbers won't add up. (e.g. Give it a try - you'll end up with 129 != 131 and 1147 != 1191. We'll need one of these numbers later.) Level 4 adds up though, so the plot thickens.
Note, however, that (131 - 129) + (1191 - 1147) = 46, i.e. the number of deaths.
So if you adjust the 131 and 1191 figures to match their subdivision, everything would sum up correctly, including the top level (pcr_tested_positive), which would then include deaths.
This would imply that 2 people without symptoms died, and 44 people with symptoms did.
Taking a guess, "deaths" used to be two separate columns: one under "with no symptoms" (2 deaths), and one under "with symptoms" (44 deaths). It was then decided that "deaths" should be its own top-level item, and someone decided that this was the best way to achieve that goal.
I can't find a way to make sense of the daily increases though, so this might be entirely wrong.
> Remember to not include death, because this is a quasi-hierarchy. The table tempts you to, but it's excluded. (The quasi-nature is because it is under the PCR tested positive umbrella on level 2.) So what about integrating level 3?
> That's simple. You don't. Because no matter how hard you try, the numbers won't add up. (e.g. Give it a try - you'll end up with 129 != 131 and 1147 != 1191. We'll need one of these numbers later.) Level 4 adds up though, so the plot thickens.
Note, however, that (131 - 129) + (1191 - 1147) = 46, i.e. the number of deaths.
So if you adjust the 131 and 1191 figures to match their subdivision, everything would sum up correctly, including the top level (pcr_tested_positive), which would then include deaths.
This would imply that 2 people without symptoms died, and 44 people with symptoms did.
Taking a guess, "deaths" used to be two separate columns: one under "with no symptoms" (2 deaths), and one under "with symptoms" (44 deaths). It was then decided that "deaths" should be its own top-level item, and someone decided that this was the best way to achieve that goal.
I can't find a way to make sense of the daily increases though, so this might be entirely wrong.
Has anyone applied Benford's law to the raw data? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law
I think this could make an interesting post!
Looks mostly right but he is wrong about the Diamond Princess. Those people all went off home, which is not Japan. Mostly western states. So they don't count to the Japanese numbers, only did in the very beginning.
The rest looks indeed cooked, on purpose. Pasting images instead of tables is the usual trick.
The rest looks indeed cooked, on purpose. Pasting images instead of tables is the usual trick.
He is also wrong about there having been no follow-up. Here it is, though only about a smaller fraction of the passengers.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551331
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551331
I think this is a case of someone simply scanning various reports into the website--doing it the easiest way possible, not the right way.
Seriously, why all the skepticism regarding this? I understand it but it's strange to me. Hanlon's razor seems like an easier explanation, why does there need to be a nefarious plot under every bed.
The reason why I used a two day old report on March 29 is simple, there was no full report yesterday nor today. I'm guessing the Tokyo lockdown means that nobody can get to work, and PCs are too expensive to buy for home use so the people at the Ministry of Health can enjoy a nice weekend with hoarded pasta.
How's corporate Japan as a whole doing with remote work?
How's corporate Japan as a whole doing with remote work?
The official format is terrible but you can get CSV data from here https://github.com/kaz-ogiwara/covid19/blob/master/README.en....
I've been trying to access this website for the last 2 days, it is either down or overwhelmed.
I know, data science (was it called that?)...didn't exist until tableau
Popular opinion in the US regarding the integrity of various countries' coronavirus reporting is hilarious. Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie, on the other hand, the US numbers are not "suppressed," it's just incompetence. Meanwhile, nobody is batting an eye at Japan's ridiculously and obviously doctored numbers.
Hey guys, maybe China was just having literally the same organizational problems the US is having now leading to underreporting of numbers, back in Jan-Feb when every commenter on reddit and HN were saying China was covering it up.
Meanwhile people just assume Japan's numbers must be honest because... why? Anyone who has the slightest awareness of how Japan works knows that this is par for the course. And no, it's not just the government brainwashing the people. The people are complacent in this and defend their government by rejecting criticism and continuing to vote them in office.
Hey guys, maybe China was just having literally the same organizational problems the US is having now leading to underreporting of numbers, back in Jan-Feb when every commenter on reddit and HN were saying China was covering it up.
Meanwhile people just assume Japan's numbers must be honest because... why? Anyone who has the slightest awareness of how Japan works knows that this is par for the course. And no, it's not just the government brainwashing the people. The people are complacent in this and defend their government by rejecting criticism and continuing to vote them in office.
Please don't take HN threads into nationalistic flamewar. There's substantive material to discuss here, but you've unfortunately poured firestarter over it (e.g. snark and flamey rhetoric). When people do this, the results are predictable and dismal—especially when the material is flammable to begin with. That's why the site guidelines explicitly ask you not to post this way: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
In fact, you should do the opposite: add flame retardant, i.e. use neutral language, narrow the scope of your claims to what the substance supports, edit out grand provocation.
In fact, you should do the opposite: add flame retardant, i.e. use neutral language, narrow the scope of your claims to what the substance supports, edit out grand provocation.
Unfortunately for you, people have been using neutral language to start daily flame-wars and getting away with it.
It's easy to make grand claims like that. Where are the links? It's not ok for anyone to start flamewars on HN, and lord knows I spend enough of my life telling people so.
If you see a post that ought to have been moderated but hasn't been, the likeliest explanation is that we didn't see it. We don't come close to seeing everything that gets posted here. You can help by flagging it or emailing us at [email protected].
If you see a post that ought to have been moderated but hasn't been, the likeliest explanation is that we didn't see it. We don't come close to seeing everything that gets posted here. You can help by flagging it or emailing us at [email protected].
Oh, I meant it half in jest. I definitely don't want your job ;)
For e.g.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22703219
Commenter labels a legitimate company as "skeezy", uses needlessly insulting language to polarize discussion
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22703881
Commenter uses the usual government trope to polarize discussion.
For e.g.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22703219
Commenter labels a legitimate company as "skeezy", uses needlessly insulting language to polarize discussion
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22703881
Commenter uses the usual government trope to polarize discussion.
[deleted]
Ah ok! Actually I mostly agree with you about those comments. They lead to predictably worse discussion. However, they're in a different category than the more egregious kind that we post moderation responses to.
> Please don't take HN threads into nationalistic flamewar.
Dang, question: how is this nationalistic? It seems to me the opposite - it's pointing out the media, Reddit, and this site's blatant (IMO sinophobic) double standard.
Dang, question: how is this nationalistic? It seems to me the opposite - it's pointing out the media, Reddit, and this site's blatant (IMO sinophobic) double standard.
The issue is the expected value of the subthread. Is it predictable that a comment would blow up into a flamewar? If so, then it was flamebait. In this case the flamebait was nationalistic because the topic was in the 'nations' bucket.
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
Adding snark and flamey rhetoric to generalizations about nations (and group views of nations) is guaranteed to evoke worse from others and put a thread into a downward spiral. The GP spawned 140+ comments, almost 80% of the entire page, and the discussion is between poor and terrible. It's full of mechanical repetition of the same angry things people say everywhere the same trigger comes up ("China is a totalitarian state", "China lied about literally EVERYTHING"). Indignation plus repetition is the worst combo for HN. Meanwhile the other 20% of the discussion on this article is actually not bad. That is the difference between provoking a flamewar vs. not. It's not cool, and the root comment is most responsible for it.
In case it helps, I've spent many hours telling HN users that they can't post inflammatory rhetoric about or against China or Chinese people.
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
Adding snark and flamey rhetoric to generalizations about nations (and group views of nations) is guaranteed to evoke worse from others and put a thread into a downward spiral. The GP spawned 140+ comments, almost 80% of the entire page, and the discussion is between poor and terrible. It's full of mechanical repetition of the same angry things people say everywhere the same trigger comes up ("China is a totalitarian state", "China lied about literally EVERYTHING"). Indignation plus repetition is the worst combo for HN. Meanwhile the other 20% of the discussion on this article is actually not bad. That is the difference between provoking a flamewar vs. not. It's not cool, and the root comment is most responsible for it.
In case it helps, I've spent many hours telling HN users that they can't post inflammatory rhetoric about or against China or Chinese people.
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
The big difference is that the chines communist party is actively suppressing messages And prosecuting people who go against the governments narrative.
No idea why this is downvoted because it's literally what's happening in China, regardless of the failures elsewhere.
Downvoted maybe because spelling and capitalization errors?
Edit: Holy crispy, it's just an idea of mine, not an assertion or endorsement or confirmation. Geeze.
Edit: Holy crispy, it's just an idea of mine, not an assertion or endorsement or confirmation. Geeze.
If so that's a bit mean. Not everyone here is a native English speaker.
Which is a really stupid reason to down-vote. Down-voting should be reserved for comments that do not contribute to the discussion. People need to be aware that there's non-native English speakers on this platform too.
This is an American forum in all but name. For the rest, we feel like we're eavesdropping, occasionally mumbling here and there.
If you can’t learn to write English keep reading. Being unable to capitalize or punctuate correctly is a wonderful heuristic for not trying to communicate. There are many more native speakers who are typing for their own benefit than non-natives who can profitably read this forum but can’t write.
> The big difference is that the chines communist party is actively suppressing messages And prosecuting people who go against the governments narrative.
Unlike the USA?
Unlike the USA?
> Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie
Lie, that involves intent so I don't know that I care to indicate or debate that.
Highly skeptical, yeah I am considering they've already a long track record of suppressing information / people related to the COVID situation.
Less free countries have little reason / a long track record of hiding bad news, from their own people, others, etc, and they have less free media, people to discover / tell anyone otherwise.
>Meanwhile people just assume Japan's numbers must be honest because... why?
Here we are discussing an article that doesn't assume that.
Lie, that involves intent so I don't know that I care to indicate or debate that.
Highly skeptical, yeah I am considering they've already a long track record of suppressing information / people related to the COVID situation.
Less free countries have little reason / a long track record of hiding bad news, from their own people, others, etc, and they have less free media, people to discover / tell anyone otherwise.
>Meanwhile people just assume Japan's numbers must be honest because... why?
Here we are discussing an article that doesn't assume that.
> Meanwhile people just assume Japan's numbers must be honest because... why?
Maybe because modern Japan doesn't have a track record of mass censorship and disappearing people who oppose governmental line?
Chinese gov is trying to blame US as source of the virus. I think Trump only dreams of being 'creative' on that level.
That said, I am not defending or justifying gov of Japan. This can be incompetence or malicious data tampering to look better.
Maybe because modern Japan doesn't have a track record of mass censorship and disappearing people who oppose governmental line?
Chinese gov is trying to blame US as source of the virus. I think Trump only dreams of being 'creative' on that level.
That said, I am not defending or justifying gov of Japan. This can be incompetence or malicious data tampering to look better.
This is a false equivalency. China is a totalitarian state that quite literally controls information; Japan and the US are not in any real sense. About six months ago, on a different HN topic, I said this about China's claim that foreigners committed crimes and thus couldn't leave the country:
I call it “crying wolf in reverse”: The problem with being a totalitarian state that falsely imprisons people on a regular basis is that you’ve lost all moral authority when it comes to arresting people for actual crimes. If you’ve falsified evidence, conducted show trials and made a mockery of rule of law before, why should anyone believe you when you say it’s a real crime this time?
We're seeing a similar situation with regards to their Covid-19 reporting. Is it necessarily inaccurate? No, but lying about everything else doesn't exactly lend us to trust you this time.
I call it “crying wolf in reverse”: The problem with being a totalitarian state that falsely imprisons people on a regular basis is that you’ve lost all moral authority when it comes to arresting people for actual crimes. If you’ve falsified evidence, conducted show trials and made a mockery of rule of law before, why should anyone believe you when you say it’s a real crime this time?
We're seeing a similar situation with regards to their Covid-19 reporting. Is it necessarily inaccurate? No, but lying about everything else doesn't exactly lend us to trust you this time.
> This is a false equivalency. China is a totalitarian state that quite literally controls information; Japan and the US are not in any real sense.
This is true, but what makes both the US and China (and many other countries at the moment) similar is they are controlled by governments with strong nationalist tendencies. Any state has the ability to control these stats by limiting the availability of testing. A nationalist-leaning state has an even stronger incentive to do so, because it leans even more heavily on the thesis that its nation is essentially different than others. This however, runs into the reality that this virus doesn't differentiate based on our cultural construct of nations.
Until a few days ago, you saw this most markedly in India, which just recently made a sudden U-turn in its denial of the problem.
In China's case, nationalism is coordinated with its totalitarianism, which as you point out makes it different. The Chinese response should be scrutinized for its initial failures as much as its later successes.
The saving grace in the US is that even though we have leadership incentivized by nationalist and self-preservatory urges to minimize the true magnitude of the problem, hospitals and state/local officials can publicly express that they are seeing a large number of likely cases that they can't test for, and publicly demand more testing and treatment capacity from federal authorities.
That is pretty much the dynamic that has been happening in the US for nearly a month - exemplified in the public war of words between state governors in initially affected states (CA, NY, MI, etc) and the Administration. And at this point, it's abundantly clear that the tide of truth is on the side of those state governors and public health officials. This is why military hospital ships are now showing up in Los Angeles and New York.
This is true, but what makes both the US and China (and many other countries at the moment) similar is they are controlled by governments with strong nationalist tendencies. Any state has the ability to control these stats by limiting the availability of testing. A nationalist-leaning state has an even stronger incentive to do so, because it leans even more heavily on the thesis that its nation is essentially different than others. This however, runs into the reality that this virus doesn't differentiate based on our cultural construct of nations.
Until a few days ago, you saw this most markedly in India, which just recently made a sudden U-turn in its denial of the problem.
In China's case, nationalism is coordinated with its totalitarianism, which as you point out makes it different. The Chinese response should be scrutinized for its initial failures as much as its later successes.
The saving grace in the US is that even though we have leadership incentivized by nationalist and self-preservatory urges to minimize the true magnitude of the problem, hospitals and state/local officials can publicly express that they are seeing a large number of likely cases that they can't test for, and publicly demand more testing and treatment capacity from federal authorities.
That is pretty much the dynamic that has been happening in the US for nearly a month - exemplified in the public war of words between state governors in initially affected states (CA, NY, MI, etc) and the Administration. And at this point, it's abundantly clear that the tide of truth is on the side of those state governors and public health officials. This is why military hospital ships are now showing up in Los Angeles and New York.
For what it’s worth, the Japanese justice system has an over 99% conviction rate.
This 99% number does not mean what people think it means. The Japanese prosecution system is a pipeline that strongly filters out unlikely-to-be-convicted cases from the very beginning. Long before you are convicted, you might not even be arrested, or your case gets dismissed earlier in the pipeline. Here is a video, with references, from a relatively trustworthy source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OINAk2xl8Bc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkoQjIBA_3U&feature=youtu.be
Yeah, I see. So, was the victim from the Nabari wine case vindicated? How about the Ashikaga murder case? Or the imperial bank poisoning case?
Yeah, I see. So, was the victim from the Nabari wine case vindicated? How about the Ashikaga murder case? Or the imperial bank poisoning case?
Sure, absolutely the Japanese justice system has some serious problems, just as the American one does. But let's not pretend that they're remotely comparable to the CCP.
> unlikely-to-be-convicted cases
Unfortunately this doesn't mean what people might think it means. "Unlikely-to-be-convicted" doesn't mean much when the police have so many tools available to force confessions, whether the person is guilty or not.
*Not comparing to CCP
Unfortunately this doesn't mean what people might think it means. "Unlikely-to-be-convicted" doesn't mean much when the police have so many tools available to force confessions, whether the person is guilty or not.
*Not comparing to CCP
Assuming that is accurate, do they just perhaps take a different approach to who they bother to prosecute?
Justice systems are really hard to compare considering the different circumstances.
Justice systems are really hard to compare considering the different circumstances.
Yeah and you're guilty until proven otherwise practically.
This in a system that still has a death penalty is quite unsettling.
This in a system that still has a death penalty is quite unsettling.
If you're going to parrot this factoid without context, please see the rebuttal here:
https://youtu.be/OINAk2xl8Bc
https://youtu.be/OINAk2xl8Bc
> China is a totalitarian state that quite literally controls information; Japan and the US are not in any real sense.
The US has a long history of spreading misinformation and lies too. Japan also tried to cover up its WW2 crimes.
Point is, all governments want to control information to a certain degree.
The US has a long history of spreading misinformation and lies too. Japan also tried to cover up its WW2 crimes.
Point is, all governments want to control information to a certain degree.
As I said, this is a false equivalence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_equivalence
These “information control” done by the US and China are in no way comparable and any suggestion that they are is pure whataboutism. We are discussing this on a website based in the US, where freedom of speech is more-or-less guaranteed. Try doing the same in China and see how the CCP reacts.
For another example of this, consider that the American president often complains (rightly or wrongly, not commenting on its validity) that the media is against him, misinterprets his statements, etc.
Can you imagine such a situation in China? It is almost absurd to contemplate: an independent media that is overly harsh on Xi or the ruling party. Such a state of affairs should make it obvious that the intensity of censorship is a level of magnitude greater under the CCP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_equivalence
These “information control” done by the US and China are in no way comparable and any suggestion that they are is pure whataboutism. We are discussing this on a website based in the US, where freedom of speech is more-or-less guaranteed. Try doing the same in China and see how the CCP reacts.
For another example of this, consider that the American president often complains (rightly or wrongly, not commenting on its validity) that the media is against him, misinterprets his statements, etc.
Can you imagine such a situation in China? It is almost absurd to contemplate: an independent media that is overly harsh on Xi or the ruling party. Such a state of affairs should make it obvious that the intensity of censorship is a level of magnitude greater under the CCP.
And yet most Americans believed that Saddam Hussein was connected to 9/11.
The US lies differently than China. But the lies work all the same.
The US lies differently than China. But the lies work all the same.
The comparison is about government manufactured misinformation, not media transparency. US government absolutely puts out comparable propaganda as China.
I call it “crying wolf in reverse”
Isn't that just normal "crying wolf"?
Isn't that just normal "crying wolf"?
There are wild accusations against Chinese government, when in fact we now see that they put the most stringent measures to avoid the escalation of this virus, which in fact they succeeded in doing, at least inside China. On the other hand, I live in one of the early focus of the virus in the USA, and the federal and local authorities told us to just wash hands, avoid handshakes, and continue our normal life. Against a virus that is treated in other countries with hazmat suits! In my opinion THIS is criminal, on the same level of what happened in Chernobyl, knowing everything that we knew about the crisis situation in China and Korea. Now the virus is out of control in the US and the government still has the nerve to tell us that this is the fault of someone else.
Surprisingly, as a person complaining about gullibility of other people, I really don't know how you came to the conclusion that everyone believes Japan's numbers.
Almost every article I've read that has mentioned Japan's low rate has raised the concern the numbers are faked. They highlight that it has a high rate of smoking, lots of travel to/from china, and very crowded cities. Each of these raises the risk. So I'd say reporters have been skeptical.
On the other hand, China is not just suspected of lying, but have been proven to have lied and suppressed the disease. In fact, that was the whole reason the disease got out of hand in the first place, as it's now clear the disease started spreading at least as early as December, and possibly even as early as October of last year. If China had properly not suppressed the information, the world might have been able to get a start on preparing vaccines and equipment and we could have avoided the current mess.
Almost every article I've read that has mentioned Japan's low rate has raised the concern the numbers are faked. They highlight that it has a high rate of smoking, lots of travel to/from china, and very crowded cities. Each of these raises the risk. So I'd say reporters have been skeptical.
On the other hand, China is not just suspected of lying, but have been proven to have lied and suppressed the disease. In fact, that was the whole reason the disease got out of hand in the first place, as it's now clear the disease started spreading at least as early as December, and possibly even as early as October of last year. If China had properly not suppressed the information, the world might have been able to get a start on preparing vaccines and equipment and we could have avoided the current mess.
"Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie"
"every commenter on reddit and HN were saying China was covering it up"
Stop using absolutes. There are plenty of people in the US that realize the US numbers have been suppressed by a lack of testing. There are plenty of people in the US who actually think China has handled the situation better than our own dysfunctional government.
The only absolute truth is that we don't have all of the information yet.
"every commenter on reddit and HN were saying China was covering it up"
Stop using absolutes. There are plenty of people in the US that realize the US numbers have been suppressed by a lack of testing. There are plenty of people in the US who actually think China has handled the situation better than our own dysfunctional government.
The only absolute truth is that we don't have all of the information yet.
I think GP was probably being hyperbolic. Speaking with temperament sadly doesn't work well on the Internet.
Regardless, HN prides itself on reasoned debate, and straw man/flamebait responses are against the TOS here.
I agree with the gist of what you're saying, but I think you're missing a key part of the picture. Any jurisdiction can lie if they want, for a while, but at a certain point this is an actual disease that causes actual illness and death. You can't hide hundreds or thousands of people dying from respiratory failure and you can't hide overwhelmed hospitals or auxiliary medical tents. Not for very long at least.
In the case of Japan, they do not appear to have high enough transmission rates to cause serious problems. I don't know if they are lying about any given fact or figure. But they are not covering up a widespread COVID-19 outbreak because we know what that type of outbreak looks like. It looks like Italy.
In the case of Japan, they do not appear to have high enough transmission rates to cause serious problems. I don't know if they are lying about any given fact or figure. But they are not covering up a widespread COVID-19 outbreak because we know what that type of outbreak looks like. It looks like Italy.
> Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie, on the other hand, the US numbers are not "suppressed," it's just incompetence.
Well, this jibes with reality.
I could care less about actual case counts - few countries are close to having the capacity to test everyone so who cares.
What is a huge problem with China is the death statistics. Looking at Lombardy with 6k+ deaths with the outbreak not yet peaked, am I really supposed to believe that only 2.5k died in Wuhan (similar population)? The CFR outside Hubei is ridiculously low - only 1 death out of 1200 cases in Zhejiang (!)?
During China's outbreak, there were additionally lots of accusations of case data being completely made up (insufficient variance in daily numbers) and looking at basically every other country's quite noisy reports today, that was almost certainly true.
The implications are pretty vast: China's reporting actually made the disease seem less urgent than it really was. Perhaps tens of thousands of lives would have been saved had they been more transparent.
Well, this jibes with reality.
I could care less about actual case counts - few countries are close to having the capacity to test everyone so who cares.
What is a huge problem with China is the death statistics. Looking at Lombardy with 6k+ deaths with the outbreak not yet peaked, am I really supposed to believe that only 2.5k died in Wuhan (similar population)? The CFR outside Hubei is ridiculously low - only 1 death out of 1200 cases in Zhejiang (!)?
During China's outbreak, there were additionally lots of accusations of case data being completely made up (insufficient variance in daily numbers) and looking at basically every other country's quite noisy reports today, that was almost certainly true.
The implications are pretty vast: China's reporting actually made the disease seem less urgent than it really was. Perhaps tens of thousands of lives would have been saved had they been more transparent.
China locked down Wuhan much earlier than Italy did. And they did it harder. Totalitarian states have an advantage in situations like that.
The numbers are probably not accurate, but there is no place where the numbers are accurate. Case fatality rates go from less than 1% to more than 10%. In France, on the official website where they give the numbers, it is clearly written "we don't test everyone, the actual number of cases is higher", and deaths are "of COVID-19 patients dying in hospitals". All numbers are made up, because there is no way to know the actual numbers.
And don't tell me that anything after January was China's fault. It is not like governments around the world didn't know what happened there. Maybe the general public wasn't well informed but it is trivial for a government to be aware of an event of such scale. No, China may be to blame for the initial cases, but for the pandemic phase, it is completely our fault.
The numbers are probably not accurate, but there is no place where the numbers are accurate. Case fatality rates go from less than 1% to more than 10%. In France, on the official website where they give the numbers, it is clearly written "we don't test everyone, the actual number of cases is higher", and deaths are "of COVID-19 patients dying in hospitals". All numbers are made up, because there is no way to know the actual numbers.
And don't tell me that anything after January was China's fault. It is not like governments around the world didn't know what happened there. Maybe the general public wasn't well informed but it is trivial for a government to be aware of an event of such scale. No, China may be to blame for the initial cases, but for the pandemic phase, it is completely our fault.
China has a long, long history of suppressing access to information though. Not just in reporting false data, but also in limiting the press from investigating issues themselves. Are you honestly saying that Japan and the US have a comparable history?
> And don't tell me that anything after January was China's fault. It is not like governments around the world didn't know what happened there.
Both are possible, and both are very likely. China suppressed information to save face, and many other countries were incompetent in responding to the information they did have access to.
> And don't tell me that anything after January was China's fault. It is not like governments around the world didn't know what happened there.
Both are possible, and both are very likely. China suppressed information to save face, and many other countries were incompetent in responding to the information they did have access to.
> Are you honestly saying that Japan and the US have a comparable history?
This is exactly the point of parent comment: people are simply repeating the same narrative based on "the history" as if we are still in cold war and it is impossible to know what really happened in China, while this is no longer true.
Surely the situation is not ideal, in that you still need hours to read between lines and investigate, China must improve on this, but the virus just showed us one thing: being dismissive about anything coming out of China may lead to a global disaster. We should either try to understand, or cut ties with China.
This is exactly the point of parent comment: people are simply repeating the same narrative based on "the history" as if we are still in cold war and it is impossible to know what really happened in China, while this is no longer true.
Surely the situation is not ideal, in that you still need hours to read between lines and investigate, China must improve on this, but the virus just showed us one thing: being dismissive about anything coming out of China may lead to a global disaster. We should either try to understand, or cut ties with China.
> We should either try to understand
Try to understand, precisely, what?
Try to understand, precisely, what?
Try to understand what happened in China, what is happening and what does all these mean, instead of being dismissive on anything coming out of China, claiming they are lies and propaganda.
It is impossible to trust information that comes out of country that suppresses freedom of the press.
It's a very simple cause-and-effect.
It's a very simple cause-and-effect.
It is not like western channels were truthful all the time. Keeping America, compare fox news information with msnbc. No way both are telling truth about cornavirus.
Answer this without getting terribly confused, which of the following is a large country, which one is not a country:
a) Fox News
b) China
a) Fox News
b) China
You would be surprised, but fox news is what is coming out of America. And currently American president is taking facts from there and disseminated them in press conferences.
And half the population dislike Trump. And they can criticise him freely. And do.
But as you ignored the last question (Answer: China is a big country, not Fox News), here's a new one for you. Which Chinese guy named Li Wenliang tried to warn people the shit was hitting the fan and then got seriously slapped down for it because reality wasn't what president Xi wanted to hear? And then died of exactly what he was trying to warn about?
As my Chinses is poor may I ask a favour of you, that you translate this https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/54/%E6%9D%8... for us, please.
Thank you.
But as you ignored the last question (Answer: China is a big country, not Fox News), here's a new one for you. Which Chinese guy named Li Wenliang tried to warn people the shit was hitting the fan and then got seriously slapped down for it because reality wasn't what president Xi wanted to hear? And then died of exactly what he was trying to warn about?
As my Chinses is poor may I ask a favour of you, that you translate this https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/54/%E6%9D%8... for us, please.
Thank you.
> what happened in China
covid
> what is happening
covid
> what does all these mean
No idea, what does all these mean?
> instead of being dismissive
I didn't dismiss, I asked. Answer the question.
> claiming they are lies and propaganda
No, you just said that. I asked a question. Answer the question please, to wit, What am I being asked to understand.
covid
> what is happening
covid
> what does all these mean
No idea, what does all these mean?
> instead of being dismissive
I didn't dismiss, I asked. Answer the question.
> claiming they are lies and propaganda
No, you just said that. I asked a question. Answer the question please, to wit, What am I being asked to understand.
Aww, look at that. You can't answer the question so surprise! the downvotes.
China suppressed covid information because that's it's nature; deny until it can't just deny any more. Now exactly the same, downvotes against something because you just can't answer it- what's Chinese for "the leopard can't change it's spots"?
China suppressed covid information because that's it's nature; deny until it can't just deny any more. Now exactly the same, downvotes against something because you just can't answer it- what's Chinese for "the leopard can't change it's spots"?
A source on recent press expulsions in China.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/business/media/china-expe...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/business/media/china-expe...
And the US expelled chinese journalists as well
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/02/washington-sla...
Of course we play it off as being "fair" and setting quotas.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/02/washington-sla...
Of course we play it off as being "fair" and setting quotas.
> The numbers are probably not accurate, but there is no place where the numbers are accurate.
There's a huge difference between accuracy and unadulterated deception. If the numbers are off by 10%, you can claim it's inaccurate, but if the numbers are off by a lot more, it starts moving into deception territory. Right now, assuming the stories about urns being delivered to funeral homes are accurate, it sounds like numbers might be off my 2x or more. That's deception.
There's a huge difference between accuracy and unadulterated deception. If the numbers are off by 10%, you can claim it's inaccurate, but if the numbers are off by a lot more, it starts moving into deception territory. Right now, assuming the stories about urns being delivered to funeral homes are accurate, it sounds like numbers might be off my 2x or more. That's deception.
Maybe. But it is really hard to find an explanation on why every medical statistics (severe rate, hospitalization rate, death rate, average time in hospital, average recovery time, etc) seems to hold true and verified by other countries, and they can still fake their death count (and only death count).
On the other hand, the number of urns being delivered to funeral homes can be easily explained. For example, the urns story talks about a fact, the amount of empty urns being delivered to funeral homes exceeds death count. But selling urns is marketized and people could pick their preferred combination of style, size and price, so this can be well explained. The story then goes ahead and matches this fact-based but pointless number with "random users on social media claims 3500 urns will be delivery daily during next two weeks". I mean, that's smelly.
On the other hand, the number of urns being delivered to funeral homes can be easily explained. For example, the urns story talks about a fact, the amount of empty urns being delivered to funeral homes exceeds death count. But selling urns is marketized and people could pick their preferred combination of style, size and price, so this can be well explained. The story then goes ahead and matches this fact-based but pointless number with "random users on social media claims 3500 urns will be delivery daily during next two weeks". I mean, that's smelly.
> seems to hold true and verified by other countries
Sure they were.
Sure they were.
Mind giving an example of what doesn't match?
[deleted]
China's reporting in no way made it seem less urgent. The reported fatality rate hasn't significantly changed from their reports.
They're reporting 2.5k deaths in Wuhan, while most estimates and other sources put it closer to 20k+. A factor of 10 isn't much of a change?
Everything I've seen matches up with the Chinese data (when adjusting for test coverage for mild symptom patients). Where are you seeing this 10x higher number?
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/wuhan-residents-dismiss-...
> Wuhan residents are increasingly skeptical of the Chinese Communist Party’s reported coronavirus death count of approximately 2,500 deaths in the city to date, with most people believing the actual numbers is at least 40,000
https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-...
> Some Wuhan residents estimate that the coronavirus death toll could be 26,000, based on the amount of urns being delivered and distributed across the city. Citizens on Chinese social media have said that seven Wuhan funeral homes will likely distribute 3,500 urns per day on average from March 23 to April 4, which marks Qing Ming, the traditional tomb-sweeping festival. By that estimate, 42,000 urns would be given out in the 12-day period.
Just a few sources, you can find many others if you look though.
> Wuhan residents are increasingly skeptical of the Chinese Communist Party’s reported coronavirus death count of approximately 2,500 deaths in the city to date, with most people believing the actual numbers is at least 40,000
https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-...
> Some Wuhan residents estimate that the coronavirus death toll could be 26,000, based on the amount of urns being delivered and distributed across the city. Citizens on Chinese social media have said that seven Wuhan funeral homes will likely distribute 3,500 urns per day on average from March 23 to April 4, which marks Qing Ming, the traditional tomb-sweeping festival. By that estimate, 42,000 urns would be given out in the 12-day period.
Just a few sources, you can find many others if you look though.
The two links seems to point to the same source, and:
> Trucks dropped off roughly 2,500 urns on Wednesday and again on Thursday local time to one of the eight local funeral homes, a driver told Chinese media outlet Caixin. The news site also published another photo showing 3,500 urns stacked inside the facility. The number of urns that arrived in that one funeral home was far greater than the city's official overall death COVID-19 toll.
Note that the numbers given are for EMPTY urns.
> Some Wuhan residents estimate that the coronavirus death toll could be 26,000, based on the amount of urns being delivered and distributed across the city. Citizens on Chinese social media have said that seven Wuhan funeral homes will likely distribute 3,500 urns per day on average from March 23 to April 4, which marks Qing Ming, the traditional tomb-sweeping festival.
Note that this is based on "some random Wuhan residents playing numbers on social network".
> Trucks dropped off roughly 2,500 urns on Wednesday and again on Thursday local time to one of the eight local funeral homes, a driver told Chinese media outlet Caixin. The news site also published another photo showing 3,500 urns stacked inside the facility. The number of urns that arrived in that one funeral home was far greater than the city's official overall death COVID-19 toll.
Note that the numbers given are for EMPTY urns.
> Some Wuhan residents estimate that the coronavirus death toll could be 26,000, based on the amount of urns being delivered and distributed across the city. Citizens on Chinese social media have said that seven Wuhan funeral homes will likely distribute 3,500 urns per day on average from March 23 to April 4, which marks Qing Ming, the traditional tomb-sweeping festival.
Note that this is based on "some random Wuhan residents playing numbers on social network".
> some random Wuhan residents playing numbers on social network
Yeah, when the government hides information and imprisons journalists, that's all we're left with, isn't it?
They're not the same source, by the way. They're multiple different community sources reporting the same information.
Yeah, when the government hides information and imprisons journalists, that's all we're left with, isn't it?
They're not the same source, by the way. They're multiple different community sources reporting the same information.
I don't deal in speculation and rumours sorry. The 2-3% assuming you have medical treatment has held true. The 10+% hospitalization has held true.
The lack of response from the US is in no way due to China's reporting, it's due to the US propaganda and incompetence.
The lack of response from the US is in no way due to China's reporting, it's due to the US propaganda and incompetence.
>"Well, this jives with reality."
You want "jibes" here. Jive means to talk nonsense:
https://www.grammarbook.com/homonyms/jibe-jive.asp
You want "jibes" here. Jive means to talk nonsense:
https://www.grammarbook.com/homonyms/jibe-jive.asp
Plus, "couldn't care less", though I'm fighting a losing fight.
Maybe they could care less? Yes, it's a losing fight.
Of course, it's probably more literally true that they could care less, after all, they care enough to post about it on the internet. They probably don't do that for... um... articles about the 1984 Honda Accord after all?
Oh English.
Of course, it's probably more literally true that they could care less, after all, they care enough to post about it on the internet. They probably don't do that for... um... articles about the 1984 Honda Accord after all?
Oh English.
Think of "I could go out less", "I could eat less", "I could spend less", etc. All these phrases clearly imply that you're overdoing it now and need to stop. "I could care less", as used, means the opposite, that they don't care almost at all.
Your explanation is a retcon.
Your explanation is a retcon.
... that was the joke. But I agree jokes are better when they're explained (not kidding).
Of course, if enough people start saying "I could care less" I guess they get to decide what it means. Living languages are literally awesome.
Of course, if enough people start saying "I could care less" I guess they get to decide what it means. Living languages are literally awesome.
Here's a good thread on the issue, with Google Ngram evidence for the original phrase (we know which one that is ;), and another post with a hypothesis, echoed in a couple of subsequent posts, for the emergence of the rephrasing: https://english.stackexchange.com/questions/283149/when-did-...
That rephrasing hypothesis is the best I've seen yet, but still not especially persuasive.
That rephrasing hypothesis is the best I've seen yet, but still not especially persuasive.
Sorry, I have to.
"I could care less" can mean "I could (stand to) care less".
As in, "The amount I could care about this is zero because it's so irrelevant, but in responding to this discussion or otherwise engaging the topic, I have exhibited a bit of care, albeit undue."
For fun, I sometimes like to propose this to anyone who brings it up, but I could care less whether people say "could" or "couldn't". :)
Edit: Hah! neltnerb gets me :)
"I could care less" can mean "I could (stand to) care less".
As in, "The amount I could care about this is zero because it's so irrelevant, but in responding to this discussion or otherwise engaging the topic, I have exhibited a bit of care, albeit undue."
For fun, I sometimes like to propose this to anyone who brings it up, but I could care less whether people say "could" or "couldn't". :)
Edit: Hah! neltnerb gets me :)
"I could care less" could mean anything other than "I don't care completely", including "I care passionately about this, it is the thing I care most about", thus making it meaningless. If I said "I could work less", would you assume I meant "I work almost zero hours"?
True there's ambiguity there and the sentence alone really only conveys that the topic isn't one that the stater wants to focus on any further at the moment.
Generally however, I think there's some assumption or perhaps prior demonstration that implies a lack of care to start.
It's tough to describe. "I could care less what you do with your money" may come with a long understood history that not much care was given to this topic the past (i.e. we haven't discussed it before), and if we are now arguing about it because because some prior discussion escalated, I am indicating that I preferred the status quo with that statement (albeit in a way that probably doesn't defuse tensions in this particular example :).
Generally however, I think there's some assumption or perhaps prior demonstration that implies a lack of care to start.
It's tough to describe. "I could care less what you do with your money" may come with a long understood history that not much care was given to this topic the past (i.e. we haven't discussed it before), and if we are now arguing about it because because some prior discussion escalated, I am indicating that I preferred the status quo with that statement (albeit in a way that probably doesn't defuse tensions in this particular example :).
There are two ways to look at this: What the words actually communicate, and what you know them to mean. If you told an alien "I could care less", they would have very little information as to your state of caring. Therefore, the phrase fails in that respect.
If, on the other hand, you treat it as a nonsensical synonym for "I don't care", then the phrase would well have been "gooble gooble goo" and it would make no difference, since everyone knows what you mean when you say it.
I find arguing its correctness moot because there's no way to spin the sentence to be correct. At most, you can say "well, you got the point", and that's the end of it, at least when you're dealing with a descriptivist (which you aren't, in this case).
If, on the other hand, you treat it as a nonsensical synonym for "I don't care", then the phrase would well have been "gooble gooble goo" and it would make no difference, since everyone knows what you mean when you say it.
I find arguing its correctness moot because there's no way to spin the sentence to be correct. At most, you can say "well, you got the point", and that's the end of it, at least when you're dealing with a descriptivist (which you aren't, in this case).
If on the other hand you said "I could work less," I would assume that (note the italics).
"Oh stewardess... I speak Jive"
https://youtu.be/g0j2dVuhr6s?t=58
Jus' hang loose, blood. She gonna catch ya up on da rebound on da med side.
Huh. I figured that "jive" was a musical term first-and-foremost, and therefore to say "jiving with" was a bit like saying "grooving with" or more generally "in sync with."
But apparently the use of the word "jive" to mean "talking nonsense" is the older, original usage, and the type of music/dance is named after the term, rather than the other way around. TIL.
But apparently the use of the word "jive" to mean "talking nonsense" is the older, original usage, and the type of music/dance is named after the term, rather than the other way around. TIL.
No I think its the other way around. "Jive" was still in use up until the late 70s - The Bee Gees hit "Jive Talkin'" and a well-known scene form the comedy movie "Airplane" both being examples. It is/was almost always used in connection with speaking i.e "don't jive talk me"
The earlier musical dance/reference is the really just the Johnny Otis song which is actually just a Bo Diddley rip-off:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxU995zbfno
The earlier musical dance/reference is the really just the Johnny Otis song which is actually just a Bo Diddley rip-off:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxU995zbfno
thanks for the tip; will edit
What was the average age in Wuhan?
Maybe the Chinese actually counted the people dying of the flu, instead of every death where the deceased also had the virus.
It seems that if you have the virus in your body (test positive), and you die, then with a high probability the virus caused your death (since it only stays in the body for ~10 days).
Yes, but if you have comorbidities, it's easy for people to claim the cormorbidity is the cause of death.
Honestly does anyone believe China’s death statistics? I think the west believes than more than even those living under communist rule in China, and that says a lot.
These claims have no basis in facts. The case fatality rate varies greatly depends on whether the health capacity is being overwhelmed, because when you don't have enough ICU beds or ventilators, your seriously ill patients cannot live. Lombardy experienced a greater strain on its medical system than Wuhan ever did. China sent 40,000 medical professionals from the rest of the country to Wuhan where has Lombardy had little outside aid. China also had universal masking whereas Italy never did. The real case count in Italy is in the 7 figures.
When you do widespread testing as China did in Zhejiang you can find a lot of mild cases. Indeed, Iceland, which did the same, has 1020 cases and 2 deaths.
When you do widespread testing as China did in Zhejiang you can find a lot of mild cases. Indeed, Iceland, which did the same, has 1020 cases and 2 deaths.
> When you do widespread testing as China did in Zhejiang you can find a lot of mild cases. Indeed, Iceland, which did the same, has 1020 cases and 2 deaths.
Two significant notes, however:
* China reports that its outbreak has largely resolved. The vast majority of the 1,000 cases in Iceland are still active, so we don't know how many deaths Iceland will eventually have. South Korea's current fatality rate still seems to be around 1%, with many cases yet to resolve.
* China seems to include only symptomatic cases in its total. That should bias its fatality rate upwards, since the denominator does not include any asymptomatic people who resolved without developing a full case of COVID-19. (Note that this will also be true for jurisdictions that require symptoms for testing. I believe that SK tested many asymptomatic people, but the US for example is not.)
Note that the 1%CFR estimates are based on full access to medical resources. When medical systems are overwhelmed as in Italy, we expect that number to increase from that baseline. Jurisdictions that report a markedly lower fatality rate are likely to have had systematic problems in identifying or reporting on case totals.
Two significant notes, however:
* China reports that its outbreak has largely resolved. The vast majority of the 1,000 cases in Iceland are still active, so we don't know how many deaths Iceland will eventually have. South Korea's current fatality rate still seems to be around 1%, with many cases yet to resolve.
* China seems to include only symptomatic cases in its total. That should bias its fatality rate upwards, since the denominator does not include any asymptomatic people who resolved without developing a full case of COVID-19. (Note that this will also be true for jurisdictions that require symptoms for testing. I believe that SK tested many asymptomatic people, but the US for example is not.)
Note that the 1%CFR estimates are based on full access to medical resources. When medical systems are overwhelmed as in Italy, we expect that number to increase from that baseline. Jurisdictions that report a markedly lower fatality rate are likely to have had systematic problems in identifying or reporting on case totals.
Guangdong China: 320,000 tests by Feb 28,
2820 positive cases.
Positive rate: 0.8%
Iceland: 3,787 tests by March 18,
330 positive cases.
Positive rate: 8.7%
Clearly Guangdong did more testing with respect to its epidemic than Iceland.
Let's look at New York State:
172,360 tests by March 29,
59513 positive cases
Positive rate: 34.5%
2820 positive cases.
Positive rate: 0.8%
Iceland: 3,787 tests by March 18,
330 positive cases.
Positive rate: 8.7%
Clearly Guangdong did more testing with respect to its epidemic than Iceland.
Let's look at New York State:
172,360 tests by March 29,
59513 positive cases
Positive rate: 34.5%
Iceland as of March 30 has done 16K tests. Which is 45K/million people (4.5% of their entire pop), they have 6.6% infection rate. [1]
Hubei population is 60M. So they'd have to do 2.7 Million tests to have the same degree of testing at Iceland.
Even with an excessive lockdown, it seems that just on this issue alone, China's numbers look really quite wrong.
That there was a breakout in other parts of the country and almost no deaths look very suspicious.
Combined with the fact that all public Chinese information is part of an 'orchestration of public opinion' (i.e. propaganda effort) and is not based in any reality, so of course, there's a credibility problem to begin with.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
Hubei population is 60M. So they'd have to do 2.7 Million tests to have the same degree of testing at Iceland.
Even with an excessive lockdown, it seems that just on this issue alone, China's numbers look really quite wrong.
That there was a breakout in other parts of the country and almost no deaths look very suspicious.
Combined with the fact that all public Chinese information is part of an 'orchestration of public opinion' (i.e. propaganda effort) and is not based in any reality, so of course, there's a credibility problem to begin with.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
"Even with an excessive lockdown, it seems that just on this issue alone, China's numbers look really quite wrong."
So you are saying that countries and regions that are under-testing relative to Iceland all have numbers that are wrong?
"That there was a breakout in other parts of the country and almost no deaths look very suspicious."
That is what you don't get, there was never an outbreak in the rest of the country outside of Hubei. The number of cases never exceeded 3,000 in any other province.
So you are saying that countries and regions that are under-testing relative to Iceland all have numbers that are wrong?
"That there was a breakout in other parts of the country and almost no deaths look very suspicious."
That is what you don't get, there was never an outbreak in the rest of the country outside of Hubei. The number of cases never exceeded 3,000 in any other province.
"are saying that countries and regions that are under-testing relative to Iceland all have numbers that are wrong?"
No, I'm saying that Iceland's numbers are strong, that they compare remotely well with most other nations (ie more testing, lower rate of infection), all of which, when taking together, make China's numbers look fabricated.
"That is what you don't get, there was never an outbreak in the rest of the country outside of Hubei."
3000 is an enormous number of cases, tantamount to a 'major outbreak'.
No, I'm saying that Iceland's numbers are strong, that they compare remotely well with most other nations (ie more testing, lower rate of infection), all of which, when taking together, make China's numbers look fabricated.
"That is what you don't get, there was never an outbreak in the rest of the country outside of Hubei."
3000 is an enormous number of cases, tantamount to a 'major outbreak'.
Do you believe Zhejiang was as widely tested as Iceland? Their fatality rates are lower than the widely tested Iceland (or literally anywhere in the world), which still has a pandemic ongoing. In fact none of the province numbers are believable (https://bnonews.com/index.php/2019/12/tracking-coronavirus-c...), with only Beijing and Henan barely in the "unlikely but possible" category.
Wuhan's medical system was in complete crisis between lockdown and when the first field hospital opened 1.5w after: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047613/chin.... There's reports of entire families dying at home (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/18/coronavirus-ki...) -- I am quite doubtful Lombardy has been hit harder than Wuhan.
I will admit I'm wrong if China runs serological tests on Wuhan to determine the percent that were infected. I'll be extremely surprised if they do because the data will prove the point above (my guess? it would show 1M+ were infected, meaning only 2500 deaths was impossible).
Wuhan's medical system was in complete crisis between lockdown and when the first field hospital opened 1.5w after: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047613/chin.... There's reports of entire families dying at home (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/18/coronavirus-ki...) -- I am quite doubtful Lombardy has been hit harder than Wuhan.
I will admit I'm wrong if China runs serological tests on Wuhan to determine the percent that were infected. I'll be extremely surprised if they do because the data will prove the point above (my guess? it would show 1M+ were infected, meaning only 2500 deaths was impossible).
The low rate of deaths in the rest of China shows that the lockdown of Wuhan works. The rest of China never had that many cases.
Death being concentrated in one region is not an exclusive phenomenon in China. If you look at Korea's stats you'll realize there many provinces with zero deaths[1]:
Incheon: 58 cases, 0 death Seoul: 426 cases, 0 death Gyeongnam 95 cases, 0 death Ulsan: 45 cases, 0 death Chungbok: 44 cases, 0 death Sejong 46 cases, 0 death Deajeon: 45 cases, 0 death Chungnam: 127 cases, 0 death Jeonbuk: 13 cases, 0 death Gwangju: 20 cases, 0 death Jeonam: 9 cases, 0 death Jeju: 9 cases, 0 death Airports: 202 cases, 0 death
Deaths are only concentrated in 5 regions:
Daegu: 6624 cases, 111 deaths Gyeongbuk: 1298 cases, 38 deaths Gyeonggi: 463 cases, 5 deaths, Busan: 118 cases, 3 deaths Gangwon: 36 cases, 1 death
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S...
Death being concentrated in one region is not an exclusive phenomenon in China. If you look at Korea's stats you'll realize there many provinces with zero deaths[1]:
Incheon: 58 cases, 0 death Seoul: 426 cases, 0 death Gyeongnam 95 cases, 0 death Ulsan: 45 cases, 0 death Chungbok: 44 cases, 0 death Sejong 46 cases, 0 death Deajeon: 45 cases, 0 death Chungnam: 127 cases, 0 death Jeonbuk: 13 cases, 0 death Gwangju: 20 cases, 0 death Jeonam: 9 cases, 0 death Jeju: 9 cases, 0 death Airports: 202 cases, 0 death
Deaths are only concentrated in 5 regions:
Daegu: 6624 cases, 111 deaths Gyeongbuk: 1298 cases, 38 deaths Gyeonggi: 463 cases, 5 deaths, Busan: 118 cases, 3 deaths Gangwon: 36 cases, 1 death
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S...
That's interesting. I had not heard that but that raises the question of where did those 40,000 medical professionals practice medicine? Where did China get all their ventilators and PPEs? Did they need them? Once this is all over I hope all the countries get together and compare notes and experiences so we're all better prepared for the next pandemic.
In most of the world, the lack of preparation seems to be more for structural and political reasons than due to lack of knowledge.
NYT had a fascinating story on an effort in the US to scale up production of ventilators, that produced nothing in 14 years
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-v...
NYT had a fascinating story on an effort in the US to scale up production of ventilators, that produced nothing in 14 years
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-v...
> I could care less about actual case counts - few countries are close to having the capacity to test everyone so who cares.
Indeed, the total positive test count tells you more about changes in your testing capacity and testing criteria than it tells you about the infected population. I suppose it’s helpful in establishing the lower bound, but with no error bars on the possible upper bound.
Testing a statistically valid random sample of the population would be neither difficult or expensive. Running these tests every few days across every major metropolitan areas would be extremely useful data to report the current active infection rates.
This is useful even without an antibody test, but of course much more useful with an antibody test, because then you know not just active infection percentages but total infected percentages.
I can’t begin to speculate why this data is either not being collected or not being made available.
Death rate is somewhat useful but very lagging and also limited by not knowing the true IFR.
The only other proxy we have for guessing the total infection rate in a population is the percentage of positive tests. In NY there are districts which have 50% of tests coming back positive, which is so high as to be almost unbelievable. If that data is correct and at all indicative of the general population, it is, counter-intuitively, extremely good news.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d...
Indeed, the total positive test count tells you more about changes in your testing capacity and testing criteria than it tells you about the infected population. I suppose it’s helpful in establishing the lower bound, but with no error bars on the possible upper bound.
Testing a statistically valid random sample of the population would be neither difficult or expensive. Running these tests every few days across every major metropolitan areas would be extremely useful data to report the current active infection rates.
This is useful even without an antibody test, but of course much more useful with an antibody test, because then you know not just active infection percentages but total infected percentages.
I can’t begin to speculate why this data is either not being collected or not being made available.
Death rate is somewhat useful but very lagging and also limited by not knowing the true IFR.
The only other proxy we have for guessing the total infection rate in a population is the percentage of positive tests. In NY there are districts which have 50% of tests coming back positive, which is so high as to be almost unbelievable. If that data is correct and at all indicative of the general population, it is, counter-intuitively, extremely good news.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-d...
All of China's public numbers are fiction, all information is suppressed and censored, numbers created at the local and regional level are fabricated, credible accounting principles do not exist, Chinese companies cannot withstand any reasonable external audit.
There are many entities, specifically in the world of finance that perform their own measurements of Chinese economic numbers and they don't jibe with the official figures.
With respect to Coronavirus, China lied and suppressed information early on, including sanctioning and suppressing anyone who talked about it.
As far as Japan, why assume others are not suspicious?
Japan's numbers look 'off' there's been a lot of talk about that.
American numbers are transparent, created by different agencies, the issues are likely testing, the varying types of tests.
Edit: I would say that most nations are otherwise the same, the only reason Japan stands out in this round is because their numbers just look odd.
Edit: This is not a new phenomenon. During the Soviet era, we saw the same thing happening from the USSR et. al. Public numbers are politicized and an essential part of the propaganda effort. It's not even a controversial position. Consider that even right now, during the Huawei political crisis, nobody can discern who actually controls this major international conglomerate, as officially they are ostensibly 99% owned by employees, which is an obvious fallacy.
There are many entities, specifically in the world of finance that perform their own measurements of Chinese economic numbers and they don't jibe with the official figures.
With respect to Coronavirus, China lied and suppressed information early on, including sanctioning and suppressing anyone who talked about it.
As far as Japan, why assume others are not suspicious?
Japan's numbers look 'off' there's been a lot of talk about that.
American numbers are transparent, created by different agencies, the issues are likely testing, the varying types of tests.
Edit: I would say that most nations are otherwise the same, the only reason Japan stands out in this round is because their numbers just look odd.
Edit: This is not a new phenomenon. During the Soviet era, we saw the same thing happening from the USSR et. al. Public numbers are politicized and an essential part of the propaganda effort. It's not even a controversial position. Consider that even right now, during the Huawei political crisis, nobody can discern who actually controls this major international conglomerate, as officially they are ostensibly 99% owned by employees, which is an obvious fallacy.
I think the main issue is that the Internet (especially reddit, and to a lesser extent, HN) is just not a good place for nuanced discussion.
China = totalitarian = bad. Any good results are either by luck or a lie.
USA = democracy = good. Any bad results are due to incompetence or Trump/Hillary (depending on your leanings).
Plenty of people exist in the gray area, but they're not going to be upvoted. Any post in support of China is going to be marked as "bot" or "CCP shill".
Japan gets lumped in with the US. The case I find funniest is South Korea. Everybody agrees SK has done an amazing job while maintaining a very free society and vibrant democracy. The room tends to go quiet when you mention that this was enabled by their mass surveillance network. (Check out the live streams of their traffic cams! [1]).
[1] https://map.naver.com/v5/?c=14135232.1111786,4519333.3257182...
China = totalitarian = bad. Any good results are either by luck or a lie.
USA = democracy = good. Any bad results are due to incompetence or Trump/Hillary (depending on your leanings).
Plenty of people exist in the gray area, but they're not going to be upvoted. Any post in support of China is going to be marked as "bot" or "CCP shill".
Japan gets lumped in with the US. The case I find funniest is South Korea. Everybody agrees SK has done an amazing job while maintaining a very free society and vibrant democracy. The room tends to go quiet when you mention that this was enabled by their mass surveillance network. (Check out the live streams of their traffic cams! [1]).
[1] https://map.naver.com/v5/?c=14135232.1111786,4519333.3257182...
>" The room tends to go quiet when you mention that this was enabled by their mass surveillance network. (Check out the live streams of their traffic cams!"
I fail to see how live traffic feeds is evidence of their mass surveillance network. The US also has these. NYC and the DoT even broadcast the feeds it on a cable TV channel:
https://www1.nyc.gov/html/dot/html/motorist/atis.shtml
https://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/14/watching-city-...
I fail to see how live traffic feeds is evidence of their mass surveillance network. The US also has these. NYC and the DoT even broadcast the feeds it on a cable TV channel:
https://www1.nyc.gov/html/dot/html/motorist/atis.shtml
https://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/14/watching-city-...
> Mass surveillance network
Citation needed.
Live traffic feeds are common here in the US[1] and other countries.
[1] https://transportation.arlingtonva.us/live-traffic-cameras/
Citation needed.
Live traffic feeds are common here in the US[1] and other countries.
[1] https://transportation.arlingtonva.us/live-traffic-cameras/
"> Mass surveillance network
Citation needed."
Are you kidding?
China's mass surveillance and censorship network is pervasive, all-encompassing, widely publicized, and an intrinsic aspect of their state apparatus.
It's not even remotely comparable to 'license plate monitoring' in scale, scope, politicization, repercussions.
This level of relativistic rhetoric is anti-intellectual.
Citation needed."
Are you kidding?
China's mass surveillance and censorship network is pervasive, all-encompassing, widely publicized, and an intrinsic aspect of their state apparatus.
It's not even remotely comparable to 'license plate monitoring' in scale, scope, politicization, repercussions.
This level of relativistic rhetoric is anti-intellectual.
[deleted]
So? Having a traffic cam and/or having a traffic cam live feed does not prove that country has a 'mass surveillance network'.
> Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie
If true, and the Chinese government officially pronounced that it does in fact always lie, the entire country would dissapear in a vortex of paradox.
If true, and the Chinese government officially pronounced that it does in fact always lie, the entire country would dissapear in a vortex of paradox.
i dont know if their data is bogus or not but I can tell you that japan has engineered their society with infection control in mind. if people are even the least bit under the weather they put on a face mask. Many people who directly interface with large numbers of people wear them all the time (clerks, train station employees etc). hygiene is very important. many more doors are automatic than in most of the world. anything that can be touchless usually is. when any authority even hints that they want their passengers/employees/citizens to do or not do something it is taken a command and followed rigorously.
I'm wondering if self-isolation along with a culture of face masks is why their numbers are so low. A single person wearing a cotton face mask wont move the numbers down at all but a majority of the population both retarding their exhalation of virulent loads and their inhalation of virulent loads will. Should also be emphasized that the philosophy behind face masks isnt "dont you make me sick" its "i really dont want to make you sick"
I'm wondering if self-isolation along with a culture of face masks is why their numbers are so low. A single person wearing a cotton face mask wont move the numbers down at all but a majority of the population both retarding their exhalation of virulent loads and their inhalation of virulent loads will. Should also be emphasized that the philosophy behind face masks isnt "dont you make me sick" its "i really dont want to make you sick"
The automatic doors might be the quiet heroes here. Given that hands have proved to be among the predominant avenues for the virus spread, I have been keen to monitor where my hands are put into use here in Japan. The only door knobs I have to turn on a normal day routine are my apartment and office doors. Any other place: from convenient stores, ATMs to buildings, automatic doors are quietly but effectively protecting the masses
> Given that hands have proved to be among the predominant avenues for the virus spread
Do you have any information to back that up?
I have seen respected epidemiologists saying hands are a minor vector, that Covid19 is a respiratory disease with respiration being the dominant transmission vector.
Do you have any information to back that up?
I have seen respected epidemiologists saying hands are a minor vector, that Covid19 is a respiratory disease with respiration being the dominant transmission vector.
Meanwhile people just assume Japan's numbers must be honest because... why?
FWIW, Every report I read was skeptical of Japan's numbers, usually based in thinking they had an ulterior motive to downplay the outbreak because they didn't want to move the Olympics.
FWIW, Every report I read was skeptical of Japan's numbers, usually based in thinking they had an ulterior motive to downplay the outbreak because they didn't want to move the Olympics.
> Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie,
You are talking about the regime that fired the previous official in charge of the chinese government's response to it's covid19 outbreak for aledgedly falsifying information, and afterwards inexplicably decided to officially leave out from their covid19 infection statistics any patient who was confirmed to carry the virus but subjectively wasn't experiencing major symptoms.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government's officials claim with a straight face that there are no new covid19 cases in China, and ridiculously stating that any new case happens to be foreigners importing an infection caught outside of China.
The reason why people think the Chinese governmemt is lying is because the Chinese government is patently and shamelesly lying.
You are talking about the regime that fired the previous official in charge of the chinese government's response to it's covid19 outbreak for aledgedly falsifying information, and afterwards inexplicably decided to officially leave out from their covid19 infection statistics any patient who was confirmed to carry the virus but subjectively wasn't experiencing major symptoms.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government's officials claim with a straight face that there are no new covid19 cases in China, and ridiculously stating that any new case happens to be foreigners importing an infection caught outside of China.
The reason why people think the Chinese governmemt is lying is because the Chinese government is patently and shamelesly lying.
Or you are just too deep in your personal bias.
Even if you don't trust the numbers at the face value, there are external things you can observe. Provincial movement bans are lifted, factories are returning to work, restaurants are opening again. No government, authoritarian or not, would make that call if the cases are not under control.
> Or you are just too deep in your personal bias.
I could provide citations and sources and support for everything I pointed out.
But I noticed you are posting using an account created recently which is being used to brigade threads all over HN that point out anything less than totally positive involving China's ruling regime.
I could provide citations and sources and support for everything I pointed out.
But I noticed you are posting using an account created recently which is being used to brigade threads all over HN that point out anything less than totally positive involving China's ruling regime.
Citations that point to restaurants opening being faked? Factory opening being faked? Travel ban lifted being faked? Please do.
I'm Chinese, I realize Chinese government's flaws, but I also recognize its merits. I hope you can accept that people with different opinions than you are not just trolls
I'm Chinese, I realize Chinese government's flaws, but I also recognize its merits. I hope you can accept that people with different opinions than you are not just trolls
> Whatever China says must ALWAYS be a lie, on the other hand, the US numbers are not "suppressed," it's just incompetence. Meanwhile, nobody is batting an eye at Japan's ridiculously and obviously doctored numbers.
The phenomenon you're describing is called a reputation.
The phenomenon you're describing is called a reputation.
Funny that a lot of my Chinese friends and relatives in mainland China, now believe that US and many western government deliberately not carrying out tests to manipulate the numbers. They believe US etc are heading to a much worse situations than China's because of the government's incompetence, and intention to not appear incompetent.
> Japan's ridiculously and obviously doctored numbers.
Japan is notorious for faking numbers to save face like their murder rate [0] but americans never seem to doubt them. Very odd.
[0] https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2007-nov-09-fg-autop...
Japan is notorious for faking numbers to save face like their murder rate [0] but americans never seem to doubt them. Very odd.
[0] https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2007-nov-09-fg-autop...
What is the reason behind doctored numbers? I mean, I can understand during normal time - governments and politicians and bureaucrats like all the time to make themselves look good. But during a pandemic/emergency, lying is only going to backfire, no?
Like, how long can they lie? a week? a month? Eventually they're going to get caught, no?
Like, how long can they lie? a week? a month? Eventually they're going to get caught, no?
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
I don't think this sentiment is so wise as its popularity would lead you to believe. I have no reason to believe that most bad things that people do happen entirely by accident. Further, I suspect that the first line of defense for anyone who's been caught doing something naughty is to play dumb, and I see no reason to make it easier to get away with murder, so to speak.
I believe that is an accurate statement, only when applied to the actions of one individual.
When speaking of the actions of corporations, governments, or groups of people working in tandem in any fashion, malice needs to be your first assumption.
Stupidity can be dealt with after you fix the problem, but malice will not only make the problem worse, but will also make dealing with the problem more difficult.
When speaking of the actions of corporations, governments, or groups of people working in tandem in any fashion, malice needs to be your first assumption.
Stupidity can be dealt with after you fix the problem, but malice will not only make the problem worse, but will also make dealing with the problem more difficult.
Oh man, china would like to have a word with you about that statement.
No nationalistic flamebait on HN, please.
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
now days hacker news is often filled non-tech related discussion, specially anything relate to China or politics; come on guys, this is Hacker news, not political news; if you are so passion about politics, go to some forum dedicate for those things;
Statistics is a science
This isn't so different from how HN has always been. Many topics have political overlap. That's inevitably the case on a site that's dedicated to intellectual curiosity (https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html).
This is a challenge for moderation, but the approach we take has been stable for a long time. I've written about it here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21607844, and there's lots more explanation at https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que... for anyone who wants it.
Concerns about HN getting more/too political go back almost as far as the site itself: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17014869. There's no systemic breach, just topical fluctuation.
How we handle major ongoing stories (like this crisis) is mostly by downweighting routine follow-ups, so that just the stories with significant new information get primary coverage: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu.... That's the intention, at least.
Of course there are always exceptions for submissions that have intellectually curious angles, like the detective aspect in the OP here.
This is a challenge for moderation, but the approach we take has been stable for a long time. I've written about it here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21607844, and there's lots more explanation at https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que... for anyone who wants it.
Concerns about HN getting more/too political go back almost as far as the site itself: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17014869. There's no systemic breach, just topical fluctuation.
How we handle major ongoing stories (like this crisis) is mostly by downweighting routine follow-ups, so that just the stories with significant new information get primary coverage: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu.... That's the intention, at least.
Of course there are always exceptions for submissions that have intellectually curious angles, like the detective aspect in the OP here.
Today you learn: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Our GitHub: https://github.com/reustle/covid19japan/