Pompeo tells Congress Hong Kong is no longer autonomous from China(axios.com)
axios.com
Pompeo tells Congress Hong Kong is no longer autonomous from China
https://www.axios.com/pompeo-hong-kong-autonomous-china-aa719c5e-b6e7-4ce5-a56f-c3c276513927.html
177 comments
>>My top choice at the moment is London as my wife has British citizenship and several of my wife's friends are in Europe;
Given the upheaval, instant support network and an inalienable right to enter and stay in the UK, I agree wholeheartedly with your top choice. It's just safer until you can circle the wagons and plan the next move.
Given the upheaval, instant support network and an inalienable right to enter and stay in the UK, I agree wholeheartedly with your top choice. It's just safer until you can circle the wagons and plan the next move.
Come to Canada.
Specific tech hot spots are Vancouver/Waterloo/Toronto/Montreal. The weather and healthcare are things you need to get used to, but gorgeous environment with friendly, diverse, and well educated population.
Specific tech hot spots are Vancouver/Waterloo/Toronto/Montreal. The weather and healthcare are things you need to get used to, but gorgeous environment with friendly, diverse, and well educated population.
What are salaries for top quartile developers in Canada?
The top tech companies (Shopify, Google, Stripe remote) pay very well (managers will be > 200k salary + bonus and equity). Local tech companies pay well (120-160k + equity) relative to other types of jobs but low relative to US and top tech companies.
If you're at a top tech company you're doing better relative to non tech than in the US.
If you're left of center politically it's also way less stressful in Canada compared to US.
If you're at a top tech company you're doing better relative to non tech than in the US.
If you're left of center politically it's also way less stressful in Canada compared to US.
Average of ~~60-70k CAD in Toronto, depending on experience, specific domain, etc.
Levels.fyi shows a much higher median of 130k USD for the whole country, but is also based on many FAANG jobs -- https://www.levels.fyi/Salaries/Software-Engineer/Canada/
See also https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11806441
Levels.fyi shows a much higher median of 130k USD for the whole country, but is also based on many FAANG jobs -- https://www.levels.fyi/Salaries/Software-Engineer/Canada/
See also https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11806441
The 130k USD is 1000% actually supposed to be CAD.
Canadian salaries are pretty awful, and it’s not uncommon to see job listings looking for a sr eng with 8 years of exp and offering like 90-110k.
Outliers exist, but even for top tier companies Canadian compensation is gonna be lower.
Not a bad place if you’ve got persistent health issues or maybe if you want to raise a family, but other than that it’s pretty shitty IMO. I’m personally going to try my hardest to move down south as soon as this corona stuff starts settling down.
Canadian salaries are pretty awful, and it’s not uncommon to see job listings looking for a sr eng with 8 years of exp and offering like 90-110k.
Outliers exist, but even for top tier companies Canadian compensation is gonna be lower.
Not a bad place if you’ve got persistent health issues or maybe if you want to raise a family, but other than that it’s pretty shitty IMO. I’m personally going to try my hardest to move down south as soon as this corona stuff starts settling down.
>Canadian salaries are pretty awful,
Y'know, for years I heard this same basic story about everywhere in Europe too, IE: the money is no good. As I age though... money really isn't everything... if you can make enough to pay your bills and have a quality life, I'd take that over the rat race of the US. When the kids are raised here, my partner and I aren't likely to stick around, so I am watching this thread with great interest as well. And hoping all of you fleeing places of persecution make it safely to better places.
Y'know, for years I heard this same basic story about everywhere in Europe too, IE: the money is no good. As I age though... money really isn't everything... if you can make enough to pay your bills and have a quality life, I'd take that over the rat race of the US. When the kids are raised here, my partner and I aren't likely to stick around, so I am watching this thread with great interest as well. And hoping all of you fleeing places of persecution make it safely to better places.
Even if money is everything, you really need to look at the whole picture. Unless you're looking at spending your money back in the US, then you need to look at what it buys you locally and whether it can buy you the same quality of life.
Some quick math and random internet sources, and moving from Vancouver to Silicon Valley would net me about a 40% haircut just on the increased cost of living.
I currently pay taxes on par with California. (Just looking at state/provincial+federal. No FICA/CPP/etc.)
Locally, we have offices for Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Hootsuite, Slack, Salesforce, Disney, Samsung, SAP, Sony, Oracle, MasterCard, Activision, Capcom, etc, etc. Lots of options.
Looking at some average salaries in Silicon Valley, it'd pretty much be a wash on the increased pay versus the increased expenses. And I have no doubt if I dig around I can tip that more in my favour. For instance, I visited an emergency room once this year and my wife had a difficult delivery when our daughter was born. I'm currently down about $100 on an ambulance ride, parking at the women & children's hospital, and coffee while I was living at the hospital. I have no doubt that could have easily eaten up the difference even with insurance.
And I certainly wouldn't put the quality of life in Canada as worse than the US.
Some quick math and random internet sources, and moving from Vancouver to Silicon Valley would net me about a 40% haircut just on the increased cost of living.
I currently pay taxes on par with California. (Just looking at state/provincial+federal. No FICA/CPP/etc.)
Locally, we have offices for Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Hootsuite, Slack, Salesforce, Disney, Samsung, SAP, Sony, Oracle, MasterCard, Activision, Capcom, etc, etc. Lots of options.
Looking at some average salaries in Silicon Valley, it'd pretty much be a wash on the increased pay versus the increased expenses. And I have no doubt if I dig around I can tip that more in my favour. For instance, I visited an emergency room once this year and my wife had a difficult delivery when our daughter was born. I'm currently down about $100 on an ambulance ride, parking at the women & children's hospital, and coffee while I was living at the hospital. I have no doubt that could have easily eaten up the difference even with insurance.
And I certainly wouldn't put the quality of life in Canada as worse than the US.
There is political violence on the horizon in the US. I would not come here. I'm looking for a way out myself.
Even during the U.S. civil war, it was possible to avoid violence, for the most part. Sherman's rampage, once he decided to take the war to the people... I'm not sure what percent of death and destruction that represents. The photos of the aftermath though are remarkable. Still, most folks avoided it.
Modern warfare is very different than war 150 years ago. Look at Bosnia and Syria for typical examples.
And before you say: oh, they're different from us, remember that Sarajevo was a modern city that hosted the winter Olympics 8 years before brutal war broke out. Most of its citizens thought the idea of war happening was absolutely preposterous, until it wasn't.
And before you say: oh, they're different from us, remember that Sarajevo was a modern city that hosted the winter Olympics 8 years before brutal war broke out. Most of its citizens thought the idea of war happening was absolutely preposterous, until it wasn't.
I agree. I'm surprised more HNers aren't aware of this potential. To be clear, I condemn those pushing us toward political violence, but it has a decent chance of arriving in the next 6-12 months even.
That's a big claim, please provide some sources if you are to be believed otherwise it's just unsubstantiated fear mongering
So the Minneapolis 3rd Police Precinct headquarters was just overrun, weapons seized, and burned down by hundreds of citizens. National Guard and SWAT are en route.
Are you still so sure about the idea of internal civil strife being "unsubstantiated fear mongering"?
And by the way, race-based civil conflict is only a small part of the structural problems I'm worried about. There are multiple deeper, more dangerous threats on the horizon.
For example, are you sure that Trump will peacefully vacate the office if he loses the election? If not, what exactly do you think will happen then?
Finally, not that this matters a whole lot to me, but to provide you with "substantiation" that you may accept, many mainstream media outlets have covered this in detail in the past year or two. Here are just a couple, Google keywords such as "US civil war 2" (just "civil war" turns up Avengers stuff) and "boogaloo" for more mainstream media coverage:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-america-talk-turn...
https://www.macleans.ca/society/america-is-deeply-divided-an...
Are you still so sure about the idea of internal civil strife being "unsubstantiated fear mongering"?
And by the way, race-based civil conflict is only a small part of the structural problems I'm worried about. There are multiple deeper, more dangerous threats on the horizon.
For example, are you sure that Trump will peacefully vacate the office if he loses the election? If not, what exactly do you think will happen then?
Finally, not that this matters a whole lot to me, but to provide you with "substantiation" that you may accept, many mainstream media outlets have covered this in detail in the past year or two. Here are just a couple, Google keywords such as "US civil war 2" (just "civil war" turns up Avengers stuff) and "boogaloo" for more mainstream media coverage:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-america-talk-turn...
https://www.macleans.ca/society/america-is-deeply-divided-an...
War with Mexico?
No, no. Internal civil strife.
Sorry, I was kinda trolling.
I don't get out much but it doesn't seem likely to me that internal civil strife will actually break out in widespread violence. Who would fight whom, and to what end? A lot of us are mad at each other, sure, but we don't really want to shoot each other. South Park did a whole episode on it.
I don't get out much but it doesn't seem likely to me that internal civil strife will actually break out in widespread violence. Who would fight whom, and to what end? A lot of us are mad at each other, sure, but we don't really want to shoot each other. South Park did a whole episode on it.
I disagree. You don’t really want to shoot people, but others do. It’s hard to understand, but violence always is.
There’s less political violence now than at any time in our nations history. That doesn’t seem to be changing.
What makes you so sure? Until last month there was less unemployment than at any time in our nation’s history. Things stay the same until they change.
Last I checked, a large majority of people are getting paid more from government aide sitting at home being unemployed just collecting a paycheck. Exactly what is causing civil unrest among citizens in this scenario? This is a global pandemic, good luck planting your roots elsewhere, you are free to go, coronavirus be damned.
Yeah, it’s not going to be easy. But I’m deeply afraid living here and certainly can’t raise my child here.
I’ve raising my child here for the last decade. It’s fine, as long as your not living in a ghetto. Heck, even ghettos are fine as long as you mind your own business.
We clearly have different standards of what’s acceptable. This country’s gone to absolute shit in the last 20 years.
Because there aren't weekly bombings and kidnappings by politically left groups like The Weather Underground or Symbionese Liberation Army like there were up until the mid 1980's.
Even with the riots in Minneapolis - it’s nothing like what happened in 1968.
What about now
Can you expand upon what you mean by "political violence"?
For starters, this is an election year.
Something like: militia groups across the country decide to go into their nearest big cities and start killing anyone they view as political opponents. Or maybe high ranking elements in the armed forces decide enough is enough and start a coup, plus a violent crackdown on ensuing protest. The country is swimming in rage and weapons. It’s just a matter of time.
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I'd rate neither of those as particularly likely. The armed militias tend to be preppers, and are more inclined to hunker down in place and just let the cities eat themselves and descend into chaos on their own.
A military coup? Having worked in a 3-star general's headquarters for years......absolutely not.
A military coup? Having worked in a 3-star general's headquarters for years......absolutely not.
I would not describe the people who swarmed various state capitol buildings in recent weeks as hunkering down. They’re itching for a fight.
Fair enough on that point. Looking up on some of that, the Michigan Militia incident seems pretty egregious.
I honestly haven't followed most of the domestic US insanity since COVID-19 descended on the world. I checked in with family members "Have you cleaned your firearms? Buy some more ammo. Do you still have MREs? Double your bottled water supply too." and then tuned out a bit after the news everyday was basically "more people die in NYC".
I honestly haven't followed most of the domestic US insanity since COVID-19 descended on the world. I checked in with family members "Have you cleaned your firearms? Buy some more ammo. Do you still have MREs? Double your bottled water supply too." and then tuned out a bit after the news everyday was basically "more people die in NYC".
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This fear-mongering is ridiculous. Please cite reliable third party sources on why this would happen. Just having a feeling is not deserving of a HN comment.
Anything I feel like saying is deserving of an HN comment. The bar is extremely low.
How about the WA state senator exposed as a member of a militia group which wants to overthrow the government? Or the protesters who hung an effigy of the KY governor in his front lawn last week? There are dozens of groups like this which want to kill. You are being willfully blind to it because you don’t want to believe it.
How about the WA state senator exposed as a member of a militia group which wants to overthrow the government? Or the protesters who hung an effigy of the KY governor in his front lawn last week? There are dozens of groups like this which want to kill. You are being willfully blind to it because you don’t want to believe it.
What trustworthy sources are you hearing this from and why should I trust them?
My own eyes and ears as I watch the riot police in my own neighborhood.
https://www.levels.fyi/Salaries/Software-Engineer/Canada/
Just be aware, the data is supposed to be in USD, but some people may still be reporting CAD.
Just be aware, the data is supposed to be in USD, but some people may still be reporting CAD.
Stay out of Toronto there's no way to live in that city
My other half is from HK. We live in London and most of her family lives in Canada so I get to spend a bit of time there every year.
London is London - the only city that can hold a candle to it is New York and having spent time in the latter I prefer London. ;) Basically it has anything you want shopping , hobby, entertainment, food whatever within 1h on public transport. Accommodation is expensive but it’s actually cheaper compared to HK. Current virus shutdown notwithstanding, there’s plenty of IT work here. We live in SE (Zone 4) and it’s nice and leafy area and we can still be in the centre in less than 30 mins.
Canada is quite a different way of life - more relaxed but a bit boring IMO (my opinion might well change as I get older). Toronto is OK - the city is too American looking for my liking but I didn’t spend much time there to really know it. Traffic is a big problem. Large Chinese community there - around Markham where we go is practically all Chinese. The food is excellent - much better Chinese food and seafood than London. Very clean and pleasant neighbourhood. Everything is really spread out though - outside the city going somewhere is at least 20min drive. Going somewhere else in Canada is a serious journey - it is a huge country with lots of empty space in between. Trains and flights are expensive.
London is London - the only city that can hold a candle to it is New York and having spent time in the latter I prefer London. ;) Basically it has anything you want shopping , hobby, entertainment, food whatever within 1h on public transport. Accommodation is expensive but it’s actually cheaper compared to HK. Current virus shutdown notwithstanding, there’s plenty of IT work here. We live in SE (Zone 4) and it’s nice and leafy area and we can still be in the centre in less than 30 mins.
Canada is quite a different way of life - more relaxed but a bit boring IMO (my opinion might well change as I get older). Toronto is OK - the city is too American looking for my liking but I didn’t spend much time there to really know it. Traffic is a big problem. Large Chinese community there - around Markham where we go is practically all Chinese. The food is excellent - much better Chinese food and seafood than London. Very clean and pleasant neighbourhood. Everything is really spread out though - outside the city going somewhere is at least 20min drive. Going somewhere else in Canada is a serious journey - it is a huge country with lots of empty space in between. Trains and flights are expensive.
Since immigration is such a long, complex and expensive process, going where you have citizenship first makes perfect sense.
I am personally biased against London and I believe it is a vastly overrated bubble, and I much prefer small cities and large towns. Rural areas can also be, unexpectedly, much easier places to make friendships if you are ok with picking up volunteering, and would be much more comfortable and picturesque than London.
I'm assuming at your age you're not doing late-night entertainment frequently - in that case you can live a fairly long way out of London and still make good use of it. You can be 50 minutes from London Bridge and live surrounded by green fields.
For the longer term, Australian state capital cities are probably the most liveable locations in the world. There is little demand for apartments, so small-space urban living is comparatively affordable.
I am personally biased against London and I believe it is a vastly overrated bubble, and I much prefer small cities and large towns. Rural areas can also be, unexpectedly, much easier places to make friendships if you are ok with picking up volunteering, and would be much more comfortable and picturesque than London.
I'm assuming at your age you're not doing late-night entertainment frequently - in that case you can live a fairly long way out of London and still make good use of it. You can be 50 minutes from London Bridge and live surrounded by green fields.
For the longer term, Australian state capital cities are probably the most liveable locations in the world. There is little demand for apartments, so small-space urban living is comparatively affordable.
Well buddy, we are in the same boat.
What can you call a "normal country" these days?
A dozen some names will come up, but would there be any which aren't "retirement communes" for the rich like Canada? Not many of them have the same vibe, and dynamism. Quite a lot do actually stagnate.
What can you call a "normal country" these days?
A dozen some names will come up, but would there be any which aren't "retirement communes" for the rich like Canada? Not many of them have the same vibe, and dynamism. Quite a lot do actually stagnate.
As someone who once lived in London for about 10 years: Go anywhere else.
Yes, fewer opportunities, but not NO opportunities. And what you may lose in salary, you will win doubly and triply in quality of life, lower living costs, lower transport costs, etc...
What truly matters is the lack of stress from the truly adversarial environment that London's commute represents. (Though, having been to HK also, I guess London is actually not too different, in terms of what stereotypical, huge cities are like.)
What truly matters is the lack of stress from the truly adversarial environment that London's commute represents. (Though, having been to HK also, I guess London is actually not too different, in terms of what stereotypical, huge cities are like.)
The San Francisco Bay Area will almost always be the most financially beneficial choice if you can get a job at one of the top tech companies. Not only because your initial job will pay well, but you will also have many more high paying alternatives for future career growth. You will probably be shocked to see the recent salaries in the Bay Area compared to Toronto, London, and Hong Kong.[0] Granted, these salary ranges may already be lower due to COVID, but that will be true everywhere in the world.
[0] https://www.levels.fyi/2019/
[0] https://www.levels.fyi/2019/
Starting about 2017, for the first time in my life, I hesitate to recommend the US. Maybe Switzerland? (If you can get in...)
Funny thing about this - I'm an American and I started to answer your message "I'm with you brother, let's go to Canada!" only to realize you are fleeing Hong Kong, not the US...
Canada!
You're aware that Brexit is coming?
You'll probably get out of one trouble into another.
You'll probably get out of one trouble into another.
I'm well aware; it cannot possibly be worse than where Hong Kong will be, is all I'm considering. Besides, the Brexit brain drain might actually work in my favour... ;)
That said, I'm open to other options; for example, I really liked Berlin as a tourist, but need to research more on what it's like to actually live there.
That said, I'm open to other options; for example, I really liked Berlin as a tourist, but need to research more on what it's like to actually live there.
There's an excellent BBC show (1 episode), "Make Me a German" about a UK couple moving to Germany and it explains a great deal about day-to-day German culture, including raising kids there and work culture.
I personally like plenty about the culture shown (hard work, raising kids in alternative education outdoors, strong sense of community, their obsession with efficiency but liberal vacation time/work benefits), but I could see it turning some people off. Also of note they went to Nuremberg and he took a job at a pencil factory, which may be more traditional Germany than you'd experience in Berlin or other urban areas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYghC4DXRC8
I personally like plenty about the culture shown (hard work, raising kids in alternative education outdoors, strong sense of community, their obsession with efficiency but liberal vacation time/work benefits), but I could see it turning some people off. Also of note they went to Nuremberg and he took a job at a pencil factory, which may be more traditional Germany than you'd experience in Berlin or other urban areas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYghC4DXRC8
Why not considering Switzerland? Have relatives that moved to Berlin and they are not happy anymore there.
Denmark/Norway/Iceland/Sweden should also be on your radar also Netherlands/Belgium.
Denmark/Norway/Iceland/Sweden should also be on your radar also Netherlands/Belgium.
It's great. I had to move back after 4 years in Singapore. This time for good.
Why is Brexit relevant? What kind of trouble do you think he and his wife will end up in?
Economic primary.
Riots. Unrest. Economic decline.
Given the current upheaval around the world and the jostling for economic advantage it’s not at all clear that being in the EU would be beneficial - or not.
True. It's dangerous everywhere right now.
Who do you think would be rioting? Pro-Brexit people or Anti-Brexit people?
That question depends on how Brexit goes, doesn't it?
Both. Either. Does it matter?
I don't understand, doesn't this play into China's hand? China is trying to undermine it's automony, now US is staying they are the same? Isn't this giving China what it wants?
EDIT Saw this in a Reddit thread by /u/CleverNameTheSecond
HK was one of the few ways China can evade US sanctions as HK is considered an autonomous entity for trading purposes. If HK is considered not autonomous the US can levy the same sanctions as they do on mainland China. They probably don't want this in the grand scheme of things.
EDIT Saw this in a Reddit thread by /u/CleverNameTheSecond
HK was one of the few ways China can evade US sanctions as HK is considered an autonomous entity for trading purposes. If HK is considered not autonomous the US can levy the same sanctions as they do on mainland China. They probably don't want this in the grand scheme of things.
Correct, the US (and by extension its allies) considered Hong Kong separately from the rest of China in areas like export controls and trade tariffs.[1]
China took full advantage of this, and the US is probably betting that revoking this special status hurts China more than it hurts the US.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States%E2%80%93Hong_Kon...
China took full advantage of this, and the US is probably betting that revoking this special status hurts China more than it hurts the US.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States%E2%80%93Hong_Kon...
> I don't understand, doesn't this play into China's hand?
No, continuing Hong Kong’s preferential status whilst the Party siphons off information, tech, interest, etc. is.
> China is trying to undermine it's automony, now US is staying they are the same?
Pompeo’s assertion is an indication China is no longer “trying”, but has succeeded.
> Isn't this giving China what it wants?
The “what” you refer to has already been taken by China. US acceptance of that reality serves the US by signaling it is time to contain losses.
No, continuing Hong Kong’s preferential status whilst the Party siphons off information, tech, interest, etc. is.
> China is trying to undermine it's automony, now US is staying they are the same?
Pompeo’s assertion is an indication China is no longer “trying”, but has succeeded.
> Isn't this giving China what it wants?
The “what” you refer to has already been taken by China. US acceptance of that reality serves the US by signaling it is time to contain losses.
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He said "we stand with people of Hongkong" whatever that means
I wonder if this will cause any political discomfort in the UK. Everyone knows that the UK is failing to enforce the terms of the Joint Declaration because they have no leverage, but they sort of quietly pretend this isn't happening, which will be untenable after this declaration.
The "no leverage" will still be true. It's just that they won't be able to pretend any longer.
On the other hand, they didn't have enough leverage to change things when they signed the Joint Declaration, and the people who signed it are no longer in power. So maybe they'll just act like it's no change, because they knew it all along.
On the other hand, they didn't have enough leverage to change things when they signed the Joint Declaration, and the people who signed it are no longer in power. So maybe they'll just act like it's no change, because they knew it all along.
> Everyone knows that the UK is failing to enforce the terms of the Joint Declaration
INAN but according to this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration...
> Those basic policies will be stipulated in a Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in the PRC by the National People's Congress and will remain unchanged for 50 years.
The Chinese introduced a security bill via People's Congress. It isn't exactly a violation?
INAN but according to this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration...
> Those basic policies will be stipulated in a Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region in the PRC by the National People's Congress and will remain unchanged for 50 years.
The Chinese introduced a security bill via People's Congress. It isn't exactly a violation?
UK joined the AIIB and Belt And Road program. They won't be objecting except perhaps in the meekest, mildest manner possible.
The bigger problem is that the British electorate still believes they are the ones calling the shots here. There is no opposition to China with Hong Kong. China is the more powerful political entity now.
We’ve been too busy with Brexit and now the Coronavirus not exactly being handled well.
The "Hong Kong Policy Act Reports" from the US State Department can be found here if anyone is interested:
https://hk.usconsulate.gov/our-relationship/official-reports...
It's unclear why there's a gap from 2007-14 though.
https://hk.usconsulate.gov/our-relationship/official-reports...
It's unclear why there's a gap from 2007-14 though.
That is ... an interesting observation.
Was that office just not staffed for that period?
Was that office just not staffed for that period?
My guess is that original legislation maybe only required to be be submitted annually for that time period:
>In 1993 and annually from 1995 through 2007, the Department of State submitted reports to Congress, pursuant to the Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, as amended (the Act). This report responds to the requirement in the House explanatory report 113-499 accompanying H.R. 5013, the State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Bill, FY2015. The following highlights key developments since June 2007."[1]
[1] https://2009-2017.state.gov/p/eap/rls/reports/2015/240585.ht...
>In 1993 and annually from 1995 through 2007, the Department of State submitted reports to Congress, pursuant to the Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992, as amended (the Act). This report responds to the requirement in the House explanatory report 113-499 accompanying H.R. 5013, the State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Appropriations Bill, FY2015. The following highlights key developments since June 2007."[1]
[1] https://2009-2017.state.gov/p/eap/rls/reports/2015/240585.ht...
Can anyone working in HK startups comment on how this law impact their business? Talent acquisition, morale, anything?
I am working in one of the HK startup so am eager to learn what do you guys think
I am working in one of the HK startup so am eager to learn what do you guys think
I reckon a lot of founders will be reluctant to start their business in HK, the same way people aren't starting companies in China. Talent will be harder to come by, there's very little incentive to move to HK if it becomes more like China. (You might as well move to China if you want that experience) People who want to live in Asia, but still be fairly international will just pick Singapore, or even Taipei or Tokyo.
Morale already took a big hit in the last year during the protests, and it was clearly noticeable, both in the workplace and in the city. Everything felt a bit more grim. Conversations were always skewed towards discussing politics, and it such a noticeable divide in society, those conversations often end in arguments. There's many stories of people losing friends, and families splitting up over this.
I think it will take some time to see the real effects, if people will start emigrating away or if companies will choose to move their HQs. But the outlook is definitely fairly grim at the moment.
Morale already took a big hit in the last year during the protests, and it was clearly noticeable, both in the workplace and in the city. Everything felt a bit more grim. Conversations were always skewed towards discussing politics, and it such a noticeable divide in society, those conversations often end in arguments. There's many stories of people losing friends, and families splitting up over this.
I think it will take some time to see the real effects, if people will start emigrating away or if companies will choose to move their HQs. But the outlook is definitely fairly grim at the moment.
I imagine VPN companies might be in for some trouble.
This is just posturing. Pompeo is a notorious war hawk who wants to incite wars with so-called enemies of the United States. Luckily our President is peace minded, and such tricks don’t work very well on him. At least for now.
Additionally, I don’t understand why the US is trying to antagonize China. It’s important to be tough on trade, but we should keep our geopolitical rivals very close. All this move does is punish HK and (possibly) anger China. Truthfully they probably don’t care, it’s a blip on the radar.
Additionally, I don’t understand why the US is trying to antagonize China. It’s important to be tough on trade, but we should keep our geopolitical rivals very close. All this move does is punish HK and (possibly) anger China. Truthfully they probably don’t care, it’s a blip on the radar.
hopfscotch(1)
Consider Manchester, UK. Great tech scene with easy access to some of the most beautiful landscapes in England (Peak District; Lake District).
London would be the last place on my UK list.
London would be the last place on my UK list.
Well, unless you're doing tech work for the banks and exchanges, in which case going anywhere else in the UK except London would be silly.
If the US really wants to show its support for Hong Kong, I think offering expedited immigration for interested . vulnerable citizens might do the trick. Like the US withdrawal during the Fall of Saigon taking a large number of vulnerable South Vietnamese citizens with them.
So Hong Kong is only filled with CPC supporters, which just further cements China's claim?
At a certain point and time, Hong Kongers should be given political asylum, but the standards should also apply to mainland and Tibetan residents.
At a certain point and time, Hong Kongers should be given political asylum, but the standards should also apply to mainland and Tibetan residents.
> So Hong Kong is only filled with China supporters, which just further cements China's claim?
From an American policy or geopolitical perspective, Hong Kong as an island is meaningless. Its people are its capital.
> the standards should also apply to mainland and Tibetan residents
Perfect is the enemy of good.
From an American policy or geopolitical perspective, Hong Kong as an island is meaningless. Its people are its capital.
> the standards should also apply to mainland and Tibetan residents
Perfect is the enemy of good.
My personal take for HK Citizens: Get out!
You are not going to win against CCP in this scenario. They have bigger army diplomacy AND they don't have rule of law.
Continue protesting, but figure away out, and Get out!
By staying, you are helping the CCP. You work, spend, and play in HK, you are giving the CCP money and power to continue doing this to you. By leaving, you take value out of the equation.
When people leave en masse. You can then form groups and communities elsewhere. Tell people of your plight, teach your kids the lessons you learned, and take on the CCP from a better position.
You are not going to win against CCP in this scenario. They have bigger army diplomacy AND they don't have rule of law.
Continue protesting, but figure away out, and Get out!
By staying, you are helping the CCP. You work, spend, and play in HK, you are giving the CCP money and power to continue doing this to you. By leaving, you take value out of the equation.
When people leave en masse. You can then form groups and communities elsewhere. Tell people of your plight, teach your kids the lessons you learned, and take on the CCP from a better position.
Majority of hk isn't pro ccp or protesters, just think one is slightly better than the other. Most prefer previous status quo. I would personally leave but most won't
[deleted]
You're telling me, an island, literally connected, to our greatest current world foe (sorry Russia), is geopolitically meaningless?
You think Newsome would would be indifferent if China grabbed Catalina Island?
You think Newsome would would be indifferent if China grabbed Catalina Island?
> an island, literally connected, to our greatest current world foe (sorry Russia), is geopolitically meaningless?
Strategically speaking, yes. Nobody is landing troops or planes on Hong Kong. And China's ability to project military power onto it is unconstrained, today, by non-diplomatic factors.
Between leaving the population in place in hopes it makes Beijing's life more difficult, and offering them relief, the advantage--to the people and outsiders--seems heavily one sided.
> You think Newsome would would be indifferent if China grabbed Catalina Island?
Most Americans would be pissed if anyone grabbed any sliver of American territory. That doesn't make every inch of American territory high ground.
Strategically speaking, yes. Nobody is landing troops or planes on Hong Kong. And China's ability to project military power onto it is unconstrained, today, by non-diplomatic factors.
Between leaving the population in place in hopes it makes Beijing's life more difficult, and offering them relief, the advantage--to the people and outsiders--seems heavily one sided.
> You think Newsome would would be indifferent if China grabbed Catalina Island?
Most Americans would be pissed if anyone grabbed any sliver of American territory. That doesn't make every inch of American territory high ground.
Hong kong is part of a giant pearl river delta which will become the largest economic region in the world when CCP plans work out. It has extreme powerful geopolitical meaning and value because of its location.
Shipping, finance, and industry, man. Sure, asylum for anyone who wants it may be the right thing to do, but you can't seriously say that the geographical location of HK is meaningless, or that having a tiny outpost of liberalism as a check on the worst impulses of the mainland has no value and we should just airlift out half the population, can you?
> you can't seriously say that the geographical location of HK is meaningless
It's economically meaningful. But from a foreign policy or geopolitical perspective, strategically, it's not worth expending force over.
> having a tiny outpost of liberalism as a check on the worst impulses of the mainland
I'd prefer this too. But Beijing has made its intentions clear. Short of the U.S. deploying force to defend Britain's 1997 agreement, Hong Kong--as it exists today--has fallen.
It's economically meaningful. But from a foreign policy or geopolitical perspective, strategically, it's not worth expending force over.
> having a tiny outpost of liberalism as a check on the worst impulses of the mainland
I'd prefer this too. But Beijing has made its intentions clear. Short of the U.S. deploying force to defend Britain's 1997 agreement, Hong Kong--as it exists today--has fallen.
>>>Hong Kong--as it exists today--has fallen.
A Chinese invasion of HK would make a great setting for the next "Fallen" movie, if only Hollywood wasn't so busy sucking up to the CCP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallen_(film_series)
A Chinese invasion of HK would make a great setting for the next "Fallen" movie, if only Hollywood wasn't so busy sucking up to the CCP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallen_(film_series)
Though they might gravitate towards Canada which has the highest population of Hong Kong citizens outside of Hong Kong itself.
Doubtful. The United States is a high immigration priority among the Hong Kong chinese.
Vancouver (and Australia) received the bulk of Hong Kong immigrants because, during the handover exodus, the US imposed extraordinary hurdles on immigrants from there.
This turned out to be a really, really stupid thing to do. The Hong Kong chinese are essentially the ideal immigrant: extremely industrious, very well educated, highly motivated to integrate their children, possessing unusually strong international business and finance ties, strongly law-abiding and highly family oriented, and a great many speak flawless English. So... Canada got them.
HongKongers are a unique breed. We would be wise to not repeat our past mistake.
Vancouver (and Australia) received the bulk of Hong Kong immigrants because, during the handover exodus, the US imposed extraordinary hurdles on immigrants from there.
This turned out to be a really, really stupid thing to do. The Hong Kong chinese are essentially the ideal immigrant: extremely industrious, very well educated, highly motivated to integrate their children, possessing unusually strong international business and finance ties, strongly law-abiding and highly family oriented, and a great many speak flawless English. So... Canada got them.
HongKongers are a unique breed. We would be wise to not repeat our past mistake.
However the US is in worse shape than back then. Do you think they would still prefer the US over Canada?
It really isn't, though. America's real GDP growth rate has been outpacing Canada's for decades now, and it's reflected in Canada's low average salaries relative to the US in a lot of top fields.
Add to that the Canadian dollar's likely continued weak performance and you can make significantly more in the US if you're at the top of your field.
The difference in GDP per capita, even adjusted for PPP, is significant and quite durable: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locat...
I personally don't see how that gap doesn't become wider over time, because our economic policies favour oligopolies over robust competition in many sectors, and we've been actively sabotaging any attempt to develop our bountiful natural resources.
Add to that the Canadian dollar's likely continued weak performance and you can make significantly more in the US if you're at the top of your field.
The difference in GDP per capita, even adjusted for PPP, is significant and quite durable: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locat...
I personally don't see how that gap doesn't become wider over time, because our economic policies favour oligopolies over robust competition in many sectors, and we've been actively sabotaging any attempt to develop our bountiful natural resources.
>It really isn't, though. America's real GDP growth rate has been outpacing Canada's for decades now
Parent poster likely isn't referring to the economic outlook.
Parent poster likely isn't referring to the economic outlook.
Yes, however I'm pointing out that Canadian smugness is generally unearned.
Absolutely.
> This turned out to be a really, really stupid thing to do.
Why? I certainly like our position in the world far better than where canada is. Apparently so do canadians as millions of them immigrate to the US where hardly any americans immigrate north. Wonder why?
> So... Canada got them.
And they got hongcouver - something they whine about all over social media.
> HongKongers are a unique breed. We would be wise to not repeat our past mistake.
If they are so special why did they get conquered by the british? Why did they stay conquered for 150 years. And why did they need china to finally give them "democracy" after the brits left. If they are so special, let them stay in hong kong and figure things out themselves.
In a world where the US has extremely high unemployment, you are advocating that we allow more people from china? No thanks. I'm feeling generous, let canada and australia have them all and get all the benefits.
Why? I certainly like our position in the world far better than where canada is. Apparently so do canadians as millions of them immigrate to the US where hardly any americans immigrate north. Wonder why?
> So... Canada got them.
And they got hongcouver - something they whine about all over social media.
> HongKongers are a unique breed. We would be wise to not repeat our past mistake.
If they are so special why did they get conquered by the british? Why did they stay conquered for 150 years. And why did they need china to finally give them "democracy" after the brits left. If they are so special, let them stay in hong kong and figure things out themselves.
In a world where the US has extremely high unemployment, you are advocating that we allow more people from china? No thanks. I'm feeling generous, let canada and australia have them all and get all the benefits.
I don't think Canada has offered though...
Won't that mostly benefit the more well off people in Hong Kong, since it's quite a big cost and risk to move?
Not that I don't support freer immigration; I just think exodus is kind of the worst case scenario.
Not that I don't support freer immigration; I just think exodus is kind of the worst case scenario.
> If the US really wants to show its support for Hong Kong
Was that the goal here? Was Pompeo's testimony in any doubt, almost without regard to Hong Kong's situation?
Was that the goal here? Was Pompeo's testimony in any doubt, almost without regard to Hong Kong's situation?
skoskie(1)
They need to also move all the physical capital that makes the place worthwhile and leave the place as scorched earth.
If I remember correctly, the HSBC building was actually designed so that much of it could be dismantled and removed from HK if the CCP handover did not go well. The only thing that would remain would be the large cantilevered pilons supporting all the removable floors.
If I remember correctly, the HSBC building was actually designed so that much of it could be dismantled and removed from HK if the CCP handover did not go well. The only thing that would remain would be the large cantilevered pilons supporting all the removable floors.
At least the UK ought to do so.
Hong Kong was lost the day the agreement was signed with the UK.
Like they did in South Africa they just packed their bags when it became expedient to do so and buggered off without worrying about the consequences.
Like they did in South Africa they just packed their bags when it became expedient to do so and buggered off without worrying about the consequences.
There is a related discussion for migrating Hong Kong people in another thread right now:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23326670
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23326670
> If the US really wants to show its support for Hong Kong
Hong Kong is lost.
But its people can still be saved.
Hong Kong is lost.
But its people can still be saved.
> Hong Kong is lost.
With that attitude it certainly is. Maybe if we had the balls to sanction China for its myriad of human rights violations, or you know do what we have 0 problems doing in the middle east, provide arms and training to resisting movement (but I guess we only have to balls to do that when the country poses no real military threat to us).
With that attitude it certainly is. Maybe if we had the balls to sanction China for its myriad of human rights violations, or you know do what we have 0 problems doing in the middle east, provide arms and training to resisting movement (but I guess we only have to balls to do that when the country poses no real military threat to us).
America's leadership isn't currently strong enough to project that much soft power, particularly as the current admin has been wantonly destroying any relationship we had with countries in the region opposed to China. (Japan is perhaps an exception, but they seem apathetic to HK in general.)
What countries? As far as I can tell, relations with Vietnam and Korea are quite good. Possibly historical highs with Vietnam.
What power projection does Vietnam do on the US' behalf in SEA? Any?
Potentially naval basing.
https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/will-vietnam-lease-cam-ranh-...
https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/will-vietnam-lease-cam-ranh-...
Sanctioning China would make all the thneeds we buy from them more expensive. Can't have that!
> Hong Kong is lost.
HK was bound to be lost eventually (in 2047), the acceleration is what makes the situation worse.
HK was bound to be lost eventually (in 2047), the acceleration is what makes the situation worse.
In 2047 China will be a very different country. Hopefully a much better one.
[deleted]
This will definitely reek havoc on the global economy.
It's wreak.
And you're probably right. Hong Kong's status made it home to a lot of the financial engineering of commerce between China and the west. With it losing its status, I think a lot of the financial machinery in HK is about to come undone. Singapore will likely benefit, to some degree, from this move. The world and China may need to find new markets and suppliers in the short term.
And you're probably right. Hong Kong's status made it home to a lot of the financial engineering of commerce between China and the west. With it losing its status, I think a lot of the financial machinery in HK is about to come undone. Singapore will likely benefit, to some degree, from this move. The world and China may need to find new markets and suppliers in the short term.
https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/2/210388... The sceptic in me thinks there is more than meets the eye here.
Doesn't China have more to lose by giving up HK's special status versus absorbing into China's larger political apparatus?
Yes, I would imagine so. HK seemed to be the only conduit through which trade with the west could flow smoothly. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
There won't be any global havoc. It is in the interest of all states[0] for the financial services of Hong Kong to continue functioning. Hong Kong's future is not bright, but it will fall into irrelevance before it explodes into a catastrophe. It will simply be outpaced by the other financial centers in Asia with political stability.
[0] All states with any influence in the matter, China and Hong Kong SAR
[0] All states with any influence in the matter, China and Hong Kong SAR
How so?
nsajko(3)
About 6 months ago I was telling my friend that US is moving towards war with Iran in 2 years and China in ten. Clearly, for whatever reason, that schedule has been accelerated.
The comparisons to cold war seem apt and given that US president was recently asked about what he talked about with Putin ( and the response, among others, was borders ). That sent a chill down my spine. How was this question not followed up is beyond me.
We have been moving towards a confrontation for a while now and this move will not make it less likely. I am not trying to defend China's moves, but realistically, what are the odds China will surrender to international pressure campaign?
The comparisons to cold war seem apt and given that US president was recently asked about what he talked about with Putin ( and the response, among others, was borders ). That sent a chill down my spine. How was this question not followed up is beyond me.
We have been moving towards a confrontation for a while now and this move will not make it less likely. I am not trying to defend China's moves, but realistically, what are the odds China will surrender to international pressure campaign?
> what are the odds China will surrender to international pressure campaign?
China was given special consideration in the 90s on certain assumptions. Those assumptions have not borne out. This action is one of those special considerations being rolled back. Nothing more.
China was given special consideration in the 90s on certain assumptions. Those assumptions have not borne out. This action is one of those special considerations being rolled back. Nothing more.
I am worried that we are talking about two different things. I was talking about current tactic of supporting HK autonomy as a way to limit Chinese influence as opposed to a seeming strategic goal of turning China into a model international citizen US would want it to be ages ago.
I also find the third sentence a very simplistic way of understanding international relations. I do not want to go on a rant here, but US does not really have a problem with lack of autonomy.
The problem for US is that China is not easily bullied. That is the reason the considerations are being rolled back.
I also find the third sentence a very simplistic way of understanding international relations. I do not want to go on a rant here, but US does not really have a problem with lack of autonomy.
The problem for US is that China is not easily bullied. That is the reason the considerations are being rolled back.
> US does not really have a problem with lack of autonomy
The Secretary of State is literally required by law to report to Congress on Hong Kong's autonomy [1][2]. The beginning and end of this issue is Hong Kong's autonomy (and how that relates to its special trade status).
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States–Hong_Kong_Policy...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Human_Rights_and_Dem...
The Secretary of State is literally required by law to report to Congress on Hong Kong's autonomy [1][2]. The beginning and end of this issue is Hong Kong's autonomy (and how that relates to its special trade status).
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States–Hong_Kong_Policy...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Human_Rights_and_Dem...
I think the relevant questions here revolve around simple "and? so? what?". The mere fact that they were certified before with ample indications the autonomy was stripped away suggests that the decision is largely political as opposed to the noble goal of preventing human rights violations. Just to add to this ( I don't want to spend too much time on this ), note that Iran was for the longest time certified to be compliant ( until suddenly it was not ).
In other words, I am not sure what you are arguing here. You are absolutely right, but you do not advance your point as far I can tell.
In other words, I am not sure what you are arguing here. You are absolutely right, but you do not advance your point as far I can tell.
> that they were certified before with ample indications the autonomy was stripped away suggests that the decision is largely political as opposed to the noble goal of preventing human rights violations
Of course it's political. The same way Beijing's national security law, and through it, repudiation of its 1997 agreement, are political decisions. Political decisions have real consequences. One of the consequences of that national security legislation is Hong Kong no longer has an independent justice system.
This notice mainly reverts Hong Kong to the same trade status as the rest of China. It was given special status, decades ago, because it was special. It's clearly no longer special in those ways.
In the wake of Beijing's violence in 2018, the consequences of a loss of autonomy were strengthened to include sanctions. That component of America's reaction pertains, in part, to human rights concerns. But the trade component does not.
Of course it's political. The same way Beijing's national security law, and through it, repudiation of its 1997 agreement, are political decisions. Political decisions have real consequences. One of the consequences of that national security legislation is Hong Kong no longer has an independent justice system.
This notice mainly reverts Hong Kong to the same trade status as the rest of China. It was given special status, decades ago, because it was special. It's clearly no longer special in those ways.
In the wake of Beijing's violence in 2018, the consequences of a loss of autonomy were strengthened to include sanctions. That component of America's reaction pertains, in part, to human rights concerns. But the trade component does not.
> China was given special consideration in the 90s on certain assumptions. Those assumptions have not borne out. This action is one of those special considerations being rolled back. Nothing more.
So do you agree that the current events are more than just special consideration being rolled back? It clearly is not a simple if then kind of deal as your original post appeared to imply.
>Of course it's political.
We are in agreement.
> That component of America's reaction pertains, in part, to human rights concerns. But the trade component does not.
This is where we may be not in agreement. Could you elaborate on the trade part?
So do you agree that the current events are more than just special consideration being rolled back? It clearly is not a simple if then kind of deal as your original post appeared to imply.
>Of course it's political.
We are in agreement.
> That component of America's reaction pertains, in part, to human rights concerns. But the trade component does not.
This is where we may be not in agreement. Could you elaborate on the trade part?
> Could you elaborate on the trade part?
If an American does business with China, there is one set of rules. If they do business with Hong Kong, there is another. The latter is more favourable than the former. This notice principally rolls back that delineation.
The special status was granted for commercial reasons. China and Hong Kong had different legal systems, and different commercial and policy risks. They merited different treatment.
Now, they’re less different. A business dispute in Hong Kong could end up in a Chinese court because a party functionary feels like it. A company exporting from Hong Kong may be coerced by Party officials, or be benefiting from IP stolen from the mainland. This happened, slowly, over years. But the national security legislation took a big, sudden step.
The special status was granted to protect commercial interests. It is being rescinded on commercial reasoning. Those commercial interests are exercised politically, and there are other factors at play, but that’s sort of like quibbling about whether one’s arm or brain lifts a teacup.
If an American does business with China, there is one set of rules. If they do business with Hong Kong, there is another. The latter is more favourable than the former. This notice principally rolls back that delineation.
The special status was granted for commercial reasons. China and Hong Kong had different legal systems, and different commercial and policy risks. They merited different treatment.
Now, they’re less different. A business dispute in Hong Kong could end up in a Chinese court because a party functionary feels like it. A company exporting from Hong Kong may be coerced by Party officials, or be benefiting from IP stolen from the mainland. This happened, slowly, over years. But the national security legislation took a big, sudden step.
The special status was granted to protect commercial interests. It is being rescinded on commercial reasoning. Those commercial interests are exercised politically, and there are other factors at play, but that’s sort of like quibbling about whether one’s arm or brain lifts a teacup.
I think it is a good argument to make. Thank you for the response.
Considerations are being rolled back because the previous thesis of “as China grows economically, it will become more democratic” is becoming increasingly false.
War over what? This is undisputed Chinese soil. Nobody lifted a finger over Crimea. Nothing will be done about HK politics.
I've been hearing for almost 20 years now that "we're going to war with Iran <soon>". What's different now?
Umm. We barely avoided war with Iran when Suleimani was killed. Thankfully, Trump saw no benefit in it ( for better or worse, he does seem responsive to his base, that is not super thrilled about dying there ). But if you do not see the steady push of the drums of war, or worse, choose to actively ignore it, it is difficult for me to say anything that would change your mind. To me it seems apparent. It certainly should have been apparent after Iraq.
Again, though, what's different about the current situation than the last 20 years? There's constantly been a "steady push of the drums of war" over that time.
In a sense, it hard not to agree with you. The trajectory was set a good while ago. The destination did not change in any real way. From that perspective, you are right. It has been the case for 20 years and US did not attack Iran.
There is a difference though. For example, with Vietnam, the press was largely careful not ruffle administration's feathers. With Iraq, there was some mild questioning, but few of the established media questioned the narrative pushed by the administration. Now look at the response of the press to even a possibility of another full out war in ME ( at best divided along partisan lines ). That was one of the few times, I actually agreed with Tucker.
The change you are thinking of is that the war of Iran did not happen yet ( and it likely would have based on the publicly available information [1],[2]). If left to Washington alone, I am willing to bet good money, it would have happened already.
[1]https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/concerns-trump-administratio...
[2]https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20989/pompeos-12-deman...
There is a difference though. For example, with Vietnam, the press was largely careful not ruffle administration's feathers. With Iraq, there was some mild questioning, but few of the established media questioned the narrative pushed by the administration. Now look at the response of the press to even a possibility of another full out war in ME ( at best divided along partisan lines ). That was one of the few times, I actually agreed with Tucker.
The change you are thinking of is that the war of Iran did not happen yet ( and it likely would have based on the publicly available information [1],[2]). If left to Washington alone, I am willing to bet good money, it would have happened already.
[1]https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/concerns-trump-administratio...
[2]https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20989/pompeos-12-deman...
>I was telling my friend that US is moving towards war with Iran in 2 years and China in ten
It takes two tango. Is Iran and/or China doing anything on their part to move us closer to war?
It takes two tango. Is Iran and/or China doing anything on their part to move us closer to war?
It really only takes one interested party to start a war.
Poland circa 1939 would beg to differ. I am not trying to be difficult, but your statement is easily countered.
edited: changed refuted to countered; seems more accurate
edited: changed refuted to countered; seems more accurate
Poland was not so innocent, it was an aggressive state actor. Together with Germany, it invaded Czechoslovakia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaolzie#Part_of_Poland_(1938%E...
I do not want to respond too harshly, but the question was whether it takes one to tango. And it does. Germany did not need Poland's permission to invade. All Germany needed is a moment it considered favorable. Everything else is an excuse used for public consumption ( and if you look at Iraq and Iran, the parallels become obvious ).
As for the aggressive actor part, I will leave it for now ( it does not add to conversation and since I am not a historian, I can't authoritatively say that comparatively speaking Poland was the nice guy on the block ).
As for the aggressive actor part, I will leave it for now ( it does not add to conversation and since I am not a historian, I can't authoritatively say that comparatively speaking Poland was the nice guy on the block ).
They also left out the part that Poland invaded and took exactly back that which Czechoslovakia had invaded Poland and taken only a few years before during WWI.
So China and Iran are Poland circa 1939 and USA is Nazi Germany? Do you want to go with that analogy?
You are missing the point.
Argument: War takes two. Counter: No. It only takes one. See Germany invades Poland. Counter to counter: Your analogy can be extended to look ridiculous.
I know it can be, but all analogies can be.
Argument: War takes two. Counter: No. It only takes one. See Germany invades Poland. Counter to counter: Your analogy can be extended to look ridiculous.
I know it can be, but all analogies can be.
>You are missing the point.
No. I got your point. Your original comment implied that it is America that is solely moving towards war. I asked you if you thought Iran and/or China were also responsible for moving us towards war and you choose to be pedantic about a metaphor and wasted mine and your time doing so.
So to answer you directly: who cares about the metaphor.
No. I got your point. Your original comment implied that it is America that is solely moving towards war. I asked you if you thought Iran and/or China were also responsible for moving us towards war and you choose to be pedantic about a metaphor and wasted mine and your time doing so.
So to answer you directly: who cares about the metaphor.
I do not think it was a waste. All metaphors are largely useless. They may help with getting a point a across, but they are just a crutch to help with understanding an issue. If I am pedantic, it is because I do not want my metaphor ( if that is the right word here ) to be misinterpreted.
But you do have a point. What if instead of what I think, we turn to the wisdom the global crowd ( [1],[2],[3] ), who, when recently polled, indicated that US is greater threat than China or Russia. So the world populace thinks US is moving towards war; moreso than China or Russia.
It is possible that I overstated my case. You do have a point here, but are you trying to tell me Iran is THE threat to that will pull this world into the abyss?
But you do have a point. What if instead of what I think, we turn to the wisdom the global crowd ( [1],[2],[3] ), who, when recently polled, indicated that US is greater threat than China or Russia. So the world populace thinks US is moving towards war; moreso than China or Russia.
It is possible that I overstated my case. You do have a point here, but are you trying to tell me Iran is THE threat to that will pull this world into the abyss?
You're still not answering the question. Do you think Iran and China have a responsibility for the part they played in moving us towards war?
>So the world populace thinks US is moving towards war; moreso than China or Russia.
Not surprised. There is so much negativity around anything to do with America because America is what defines the current world order. The subtext is that if not for America we would be living in global utopia with no war and nations cooperating diplomatically to solve common goals - a state of things that has NEVER been true in all of human history. The only times of peace humanity have ever enjoyed were within the borders of some empire.
>You do have a point here, but are you trying to tell me Iran is THE threat to that will pull this world into the abyss?
No. Not into the abyss. Iran is a fascist nation that is a regional nuisance. They could join the community of nations if they abandoned their regional ambitions and stop funding terrorist groups. But their actions are leading to a war, either with America or Saudi Arabia.
Just to be clear, I'm not claiming America doesn't have a part in the state of things (America is run by humans, and humans make mistakes), I just don't see any evidence that Iran is an innocent party in this. They played their part and made their bed through the actions of their government over decades. They began existence by breaking global norms by storming the American embassy and taking diplomats hostage, and have been a terrible regional presence.
>So the world populace thinks US is moving towards war; moreso than China or Russia.
Not surprised. There is so much negativity around anything to do with America because America is what defines the current world order. The subtext is that if not for America we would be living in global utopia with no war and nations cooperating diplomatically to solve common goals - a state of things that has NEVER been true in all of human history. The only times of peace humanity have ever enjoyed were within the borders of some empire.
>You do have a point here, but are you trying to tell me Iran is THE threat to that will pull this world into the abyss?
No. Not into the abyss. Iran is a fascist nation that is a regional nuisance. They could join the community of nations if they abandoned their regional ambitions and stop funding terrorist groups. But their actions are leading to a war, either with America or Saudi Arabia.
Just to be clear, I'm not claiming America doesn't have a part in the state of things (America is run by humans, and humans make mistakes), I just don't see any evidence that Iran is an innocent party in this. They played their part and made their bed through the actions of their government over decades. They began existence by breaking global norms by storming the American embassy and taking diplomats hostage, and have been a terrible regional presence.
>Iran is a fascist nation that is a regional nuisance.
Absolutely the same could be said about Saudi Arabia.
Yes storming the USA embassy was wrong, but so was Flying two Airplanes into towers (i think you know very well ho founded Al-Qaida), and the whole Yemen-War is nothing, right?
I did not even started with the hole Nuclear-Contract that the US broke up, just to bring Iran (again) in a unbearable position.
It's funny, when the US makes mistakes then it's just 'run by humans, and humans make mistakes', but when Iran does it, then it's 'began existence by breaking global norms'
Absolutely the same could be said about Saudi Arabia.
Yes storming the USA embassy was wrong, but so was Flying two Airplanes into towers (i think you know very well ho founded Al-Qaida), and the whole Yemen-War is nothing, right?
I did not even started with the hole Nuclear-Contract that the US broke up, just to bring Iran (again) in a unbearable position.
It's funny, when the US makes mistakes then it's just 'run by humans, and humans make mistakes', but when Iran does it, then it's 'began existence by breaking global norms'
Believe it or not, I think we are a lot closer to an agreement than it seems. I would not ever dream of claiming that Iran is innocent in how things are. That said, I would like to point out that, they did not begin their existence by breaking global norms by storming American embassy. Their history is a little longer than that. Their history with US is longer than that too.
We can pursue this conversation once we agree on that simple truth.
We can pursue this conversation once we agree on that simple truth.
Yes, "Iran tankers sailing to Venezuela in effort to undermine US sanctions": https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-tankers-sailing-to-venezu...
This HK takeover by China is significant and the social media taunting that China is doing is not exactly peaceful: https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1265498343947542530?re...
This HK takeover by China is significant and the social media taunting that China is doing is not exactly peaceful: https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1265498343947542530?re...
So this brings an interesting question. Do you think US sanctions apply everywhere? I am not talking legal part of it or the justifications used. I am more curious about your perception of sanctions.
edit: added not. gotta slow down
edit: added not. gotta slow down
I read the tweet you posted about HuXiJin (chief of CCP-backed media), and I LOL'ed very hard on how he responded. (Seems like Xi's 'Wolf Warrior' Diplomacy is true)
To be honest, China really sees itself as a world power. This is only because of the economic affluence it had on every country on Earth. Military wise, they do spend a lot of money but the equipment and training are not quite on par with the top dogs in the game. CCP also has no regards for its people so worst case is to sacrifice a few million population in case of an international conflict.
The problem with China is like a professional boxer fighting on a street with thugs. Your opponent is not afraid of getting down dirty on moves, they are not gonna abide any rules, nor do they have anything to lose.
To be honest, China really sees itself as a world power. This is only because of the economic affluence it had on every country on Earth. Military wise, they do spend a lot of money but the equipment and training are not quite on par with the top dogs in the game. CCP also has no regards for its people so worst case is to sacrifice a few million population in case of an international conflict.
The problem with China is like a professional boxer fighting on a street with thugs. Your opponent is not afraid of getting down dirty on moves, they are not gonna abide any rules, nor do they have anything to lose.
>Your opponent is not afraid of getting down dirty on moves
Hear hear, the US just pay some privately-own'd armys for the 'dirty' stuff, to stay with your analogy, they just pay another thug that was probably a professional boxer in his former life ;)
Hear hear, the US just pay some privately-own'd armys for the 'dirty' stuff, to stay with your analogy, they just pay another thug that was probably a professional boxer in his former life ;)
As a 40 year old software eng manager, where should I go? My top choice at the moment is London as my wife has British citizenship and several of my wife's friends are in Europe; I also have access to the E-3 visa so the US is also an option.