Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results(apple.com)
apple.com
Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/10/apple-reports-fourth-quarter-results/
183 comments
Actually the Mac sales aren’t that surprising to me; lousy keyboards were preventing everyone I knew (including me) from upgrading. They finally shipped something reasonable that would sell. Now if they just get rid of Touch Bar they’ll make up the rest.
The core mistake Apple made with the Touch Bar was to focus on application-specific actions rather than cross-application ones, something BetterTouchTool actually remedies quite well.
It never made sense to duplicate actions that professional users already know the keyboard shortcuts for. You already have muscle memory for all of those, and even if you're learning a new app, it's faster long-term to learn the shortcut than to look down and hit a non-tactile spot on the Touch Bar every time.
For controlling other applications than the currently active one, however, the Touch Bar is great. I have BetterTouchTool set up to show my currently playing music, my next calendar appointment, and the weather, plus BTT's built-in clipboard management tool. I actually miss it when I'm working on my non-Touch Bar personal laptop.
It never made sense to duplicate actions that professional users already know the keyboard shortcuts for. You already have muscle memory for all of those, and even if you're learning a new app, it's faster long-term to learn the shortcut than to look down and hit a non-tactile spot on the Touch Bar every time.
For controlling other applications than the currently active one, however, the Touch Bar is great. I have BetterTouchTool set up to show my currently playing music, my next calendar appointment, and the weather, plus BTT's built-in clipboard management tool. I actually miss it when I'm working on my non-Touch Bar personal laptop.
Imo the core mistake is that it replaced the top row of buttons. Those media keys are super useful very frequently. Having to tap the expand button and wait for an animation makes them much less useful. They had plenty of space to leave the old row in and make the touchbar for application specific buttons.
If you hold the volume or brightness button and start dragging you don’t have to wait for the animation
My hunch was that TouchBar wasn't about the keyboard, it was about the screen.
They were looking to do away with the laptop screen entirely, and the keyboard would be the computer. You would always need to plug your laptop into an external display. Many people mostly just plug their laptop into external monitors anyway. The benefit is you could cut the cost of the laptop drastically and make it more robust.
But to do that, you would still need some display on the keyboard for various scenarios (mostly to resolve any connection issues with the display), hence the TouchBar.
But just a theory.
They were looking to do away with the laptop screen entirely, and the keyboard would be the computer. You would always need to plug your laptop into an external display. Many people mostly just plug their laptop into external monitors anyway. The benefit is you could cut the cost of the laptop drastically and make it more robust.
But to do that, you would still need some display on the keyboard for various scenarios (mostly to resolve any connection issues with the display), hence the TouchBar.
But just a theory.
> The core mistake Apple made with the Touch Bar was to focus on application-specific actions rather than cross-application ones
You mean like those F keys that have existed on top of keyboards for decades? Lol.
You mean like those F keys that have existed on top of keyboards for decades? Lol.
Yup, kept my 2015 13" pro till I bought the 16" a few months ago. The touch bar is meh for me though. I find it quicker to change volume with physical keys than touch bar but it's not a huge issue. However, love that the physical escape came back. That was big.
> Now if they just get rid of Touch Bar they’ll make up the rest.
thanks you for mentioning that it is one of most annoying thing about the new mac!
thanks you for mentioning that it is one of most annoying thing about the new mac!
Apple should make the macbook pro a lot more customizable IMO. Have multiple keyboard types, add/remove touch bar, add/remove ability to upgrade RAM after purchase, customize number of ports and port types, etc.
I know a lot of people (myself included) that would gladly pay for those types of upgrades.
I know a lot of people (myself included) that would gladly pay for those types of upgrades.
Just re-release the 2015 MacBook Pro as MacBook Classic.
Classic Keyboard ( Scissors, with decent Key Travel ), Classic MagSafe, Classic "Sane" Sized TrackPad ( so you dont get as much or zero false positives ), SD Card, HDMI.
Change the USB port to USB-C and upgrade the CPU. That's it. Dont touch anything else.
Classic Keyboard ( Scissors, with decent Key Travel ), Classic MagSafe, Classic "Sane" Sized TrackPad ( so you dont get as much or zero false positives ), SD Card, HDMI.
Change the USB port to USB-C and upgrade the CPU. That's it. Dont touch anything else.
Kinda pathetic on Apple that the thing we want the most is like 7+ years old design
I'm sure ThinkPad owners feel the same way about the keyboards in t420 and previous (the classic 7 row)
Is it pathetic that we find 100+ year old buildings and designs beautiful? Aesthetics are reasonably consistent outside of design trends and hype. The old macbook was and always will be very nice.
There was a point where Apple started streamlining things just for the sake of saying they streamlined them. The MagSafe delete, the switch to USB-C/TB3 ports exclusively, Touch Bar, the weird keyboard that everyone hates....all of these were a reaction to the fact that PC/Mac sales essentially stagnated for the five years preceding the pandemic. They wanted to stir up demand IMO.
I just handed my 2015 down to my son, and when I pulled it out of the cupboard I couldn’t believe how unwieldy and heavy it felt. It’s crazy what a difference few pounds makes...
The 2015 15" and 2020 16" MBPs are almost exactly the same weight...
Imagine the sales that would generate
Totally agreed! I use one for work and seriously considered buying one privately.
Pros:
- It doesn't have the new square styling I find ugly
- The trackpad is reasonably sized
- It already has the force touch trackpad
Cons:
- The bezels are looking a bit thick nowadays (though not preposterously so)
- The processor is getting a bit slow for heavy tasks
- It can't output 4k@60hz via HDMI (only realized that one recently)
- It doesn't have USB-C
This model with upgraded internals, ports (and upgradability, come on) would be a very solid offer.
Pros:
- It doesn't have the new square styling I find ugly
- The trackpad is reasonably sized
- It already has the force touch trackpad
Cons:
- The bezels are looking a bit thick nowadays (though not preposterously so)
- The processor is getting a bit slow for heavy tasks
- It can't output 4k@60hz via HDMI (only realized that one recently)
- It doesn't have USB-C
This model with upgraded internals, ports (and upgradability, come on) would be a very solid offer.
Their best keyboard was around ~2008 with the aluminum shaped keys — I’d rather have that keyboard with the added thickness any-day.
What about Apples history makes leads someone to think they would ever allow customers to 1) select different types of keyboards for their laptops 2) define the number/ types of ports in the same laptop SKU?
I’m not criticizing your desire to want those things. But this feels like you are defining some ideal and then lamenting the company for not delivering you ideal, when their history shows they don’t believe in that ideal at all.
I’m not criticizing your desire to want those things. But this feels like you are defining some ideal and then lamenting the company for not delivering you ideal, when their history shows they don’t believe in that ideal at all.
That would indeed be a dream. There is definitely a space in the lineup for a machine which does offer reasonably upgradable components, like battery, memory and storage, as well as better repairability. There are enough professionals, who would be willing to pay for such a machine and bear it, it if gets larger than the current machines. Maybe in an 18" form factor as the followup to the long-discontinued 17" MB Pro.
I can understand that Apple has a tradition of being an extremely streamlined company with a small lineup. That was essential to its grows in the early 2000ths. But it is now a 2 trillion company, so they should allow for a bit more variety (how many different iPads do they sell?) just to make more customers happy/able to choose Apple hardware at all.
I can understand that Apple has a tradition of being an extremely streamlined company with a small lineup. That was essential to its grows in the early 2000ths. But it is now a 2 trillion company, so they should allow for a bit more variety (how many different iPads do they sell?) just to make more customers happy/able to choose Apple hardware at all.
They could definitely open up the Touch Bar a bit more and let developers build something for it that’s actually useful.
I’m not a fan of it in general, but the Touch Bar is surprisingly open. Have you checked out BetterTouchTool?
I love the TouchBar!
What’s your usecase for it? My work laptop has one and I use it to change the brightness of my screen and to lock it. That’s it. I really miss the physical escape key, especially when using vim...
- One tap to enter Picture-in-picture mode in Safari when watching YouTube.
- Choosing an emoji in WhatsApp Desktop.
- Pausing and seeing a podcast's listening progress in Apple Podcasts, even when the app is in the background.
- Compiling in Android Studio.
I have a physical ESC key, so I don't have a problem with the touchbar.
- Choosing an emoji in WhatsApp Desktop.
- Pausing and seeing a podcast's listening progress in Apple Podcasts, even when the app is in the background.
- Compiling in Android Studio.
I have a physical ESC key, so I don't have a problem with the touchbar.
> Pausing and seeing a podcast's listening progress in Apple Podcasts, even when the app is in the background.
How do you have a background app's control in the TouchBar so that the foreground app's controls are not displayed?
How do you have a background app's control in the TouchBar so that the foreground app's controls are not displayed?
You may already know this, but you can remap your Caps Lock to escape if you don't use it (System Preferences -> Keyboard -> Modifier Keys). It keeps you on home row too, which is nice for vim.
I’ve always said they need to separate dev from creative machines. For most devs keyboard is way more important than gpu or display color accuracy.
Maybe that could be the differentiator for Apple Silicon. Keep x86 for devs who need compatibility. Creatives who need compute. Or they could just keep pushing iPad as creatives device even further...
Maybe that could be the differentiator for Apple Silicon. Keep x86 for devs who need compatibility. Creatives who need compute. Or they could just keep pushing iPad as creatives device even further...
I'd argue if a "dev" doesn't need more compute than a "creative", he or she is doing obsolete work.
I have the impression that a dev workflow resembles:
1. Editing code locally
2. Running expensive computation on a remote compute/database server
Creatives need to edit massive complex files with sophisticated real-time simulation of their contents.
Devs are editing text files...
Creatives need to edit massive complex files with sophisticated real-time simulation of their contents.
Devs are editing text files...
I’m guessing you don’t work in a compiled language...
Lemme know languages compile on a GPU
Strange comment if you've ever worked in either role. I need a much more powerful computer to render a video or voxel than I do to build an entire SaaS application.
[deleted]
Yeah who needs functional base system libraries when you could be working on MACHINE LEARNING instead
Grow up
Grow up
A computer is for computing. If you don't have demanding computations to run, you are most likely waisting the potential of your machine(s), and not pushing your art to the limit. If you don't do that, you are obsolete. Who said anything about MACHINE LEARNING?
Why are you typing this message on your computer or phone? You are not maxing the CPU and drive out to 100%.
That’s a nice thought, but their manufacturing process doesn’t seem easy to make more modular. The inside of these machines tends to be an elaborate, compact mesh of components, not well suited to accommodating much customization outside of the specs of perfectly compatible components.
I imagine a different keyboard would require space to accommodate both types in any chassis, otherwise making multiple processes for each chassis and keyboard. That gets expensive fast. It also increases surface area for problems, which is expensive in terms of customer support, preparing and fixing processes, reputation, etc.
Their limited options are partially to ensure quality, reduce price points, and decrease time to market. It’s a trade off. I’m personally content with their choice - it’s why I tend to stick with their hardware.
I could be wrong. This is just my uninformed take on it.
I imagine a different keyboard would require space to accommodate both types in any chassis, otherwise making multiple processes for each chassis and keyboard. That gets expensive fast. It also increases surface area for problems, which is expensive in terms of customer support, preparing and fixing processes, reputation, etc.
Their limited options are partially to ensure quality, reduce price points, and decrease time to market. It’s a trade off. I’m personally content with their choice - it’s why I tend to stick with their hardware.
I could be wrong. This is just my uninformed take on it.
In Mac sales, there was probably going to be a question of whether the announced ARM transition would osbourne Intel Mac sales (or maybe, conversely, get everybody to buy one last Intel Mac before their model was discontinued?).
The average consumer is probably unaware of the Apple Silicon transition.
They'll know about Apple Silicon if Apple decides to drop support for Intel too early. But they've been pretty good about maintaining a 7 year support window for macOS.
They'll know about Apple Silicon if Apple decides to drop support for Intel too early. But they've been pretty good about maintaining a 7 year support window for macOS.
The tricky part is that, if Apple supports the OS on the old architecture as long as they did during the last transition, the Intel macs of today will only get support for two major OS versions after Big Sur.
We're not even sure if they're going to phase out the old architecture or just sell them concurrently for an arbitrarily long period of time. What do they put in the next Mac Pro that can make it competitive with a 64-core Threadripper, if not a 64-core Threadripper?
Apple said that the transition period was two years. For the Mac Pro that's a good question, wonder if they'll use merchant arm chips there instead of their own ones.
Which merchant ARM chips would come even close to a 64-core threadripper?
Well, there's the one used in this which should hold up well by itself too:
A Japanese supercomputer has taken the top spot in the biannual Top500 supercomputer speed ranking. Fugaku, a computer in Kobe co-developed by Riken and Fujitsu, makes use of Fujitsu’s 48-core A64FX system-on-chip. It’s the first time a computer based on ARM processors has topped the list
A Japanese supercomputer has taken the top spot in the biannual Top500 supercomputer speed ranking. Fugaku, a computer in Kobe co-developed by Riken and Fujitsu, makes use of Fujitsu’s 48-core A64FX system-on-chip. It’s the first time a computer based on ARM processors has topped the list
Ampere eMAG? Marvell ThunderX2?
>What do they put in the next Mac Pro that can make it competitive with a 64-core Threadripper, if not a 64-core Threadripper?
Their own ARM-based 64-core pro thermally optimized chip?
Their own ARM-based 64-core pro thermally optimized chip?
Different market, different Apple. Presumably being wildly more popular will force them to treat this transition differently.
> (or maybe, conversely, get everybody to buy one last Intel Mac before their model was discontinued?).
This is precisely why I'm looking at buying a new MBP.
This is precisely why I'm looking at buying a new MBP.
What does "osborne" mean here?
The user is referring to the Osborne effect.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect
I’m an iMac guy and firmly in the second camp. I also want to be able to dual boot into a windows 10, and be able to run Windows and Linux VMs, so the recent iMac update was a no brainier. Should last me 6 to 8 years. I’ll worry about VMs on AS Macs then.
Set "Touch Bar shows F1, F2, etc. Keys" for a somewhat less horrifying Touch Bar experience.
That and people buying the one last x86 Mac before the changeover.
This is likely the last Mac I will ever buy so I maxed it out for maximum longevity--that's going to help Apple's quarterly numbers for sure. I have been gradually shifting to my Lenovo Carbon X1 running Linux over time.
Linux support is still not quite there for external thunderbolt docks and multiple displays, but it's really close.
This is likely the last Mac I will ever buy so I maxed it out for maximum longevity--that's going to help Apple's quarterly numbers for sure. I have been gradually shifting to my Lenovo Carbon X1 running Linux over time.
Linux support is still not quite there for external thunderbolt docks and multiple displays, but it's really close.
Yes, I am waiting on a 16" MB Pro too, they have very long delivery times. I need x86 support, so it was now or never :).
I think with people sitting at home on their computer all day, including basically everyone starting the new school year, that all electronic device manufacturers are getting a big boost.
I'm surprised they're selling any; I don't regret buying my Air in March, but I'd still be holding off if I had known ARM models were coming soon.
Most consumers probably don't know much about the transition to Apple Silicon.
However, this quarter included back-to-school timing and with kids still doing school from home, there were probably a larger number of parents that bought computers for kids. Anecdotally, 2 of our kids used an 2013 11" MacBook Air (old, low RAM) and 2015 15" MacBook Pro (on-loan from employer) in the Spring. When they weren't going back to school, we were in a fortunate position to be able to purchase them 13" MacBook Airs to continue school at home. Other parents probably made due with what they had in the Spring and purchased something over the summer. When I purchased at end of July, there was 2-3 week wait time to get them.
I knew that Apple Silicon was coming later this year, but the timing didn't make sense to wait. Back to my first point, most consumers probably are not aware that Apple Silicon is coming or why it matters and could not have made informed choice to buy now vs wait.
I predict next year's sales will be flat or lower.
However, this quarter included back-to-school timing and with kids still doing school from home, there were probably a larger number of parents that bought computers for kids. Anecdotally, 2 of our kids used an 2013 11" MacBook Air (old, low RAM) and 2015 15" MacBook Pro (on-loan from employer) in the Spring. When they weren't going back to school, we were in a fortunate position to be able to purchase them 13" MacBook Airs to continue school at home. Other parents probably made due with what they had in the Spring and purchased something over the summer. When I purchased at end of July, there was 2-3 week wait time to get them.
I knew that Apple Silicon was coming later this year, but the timing didn't make sense to wait. Back to my first point, most consumers probably are not aware that Apple Silicon is coming or why it matters and could not have made informed choice to buy now vs wait.
I predict next year's sales will be flat or lower.
Thank you, great point. Totally forgot about the "kids" thing. Even people who aren't buying new explicitly for their kids might be justifying buying themselves a new one so they can hand down the old one :)
That's why they're selling now. Get one that can still run the existing installed base of applications without translation and natively virtualize x64 Windows and Linux. Let the other guy suffer Rosetta and transition bugs. Then the kinks will have been worked out by the time you want to replace the one you just bought.
The conventional wisdom is this is why products aren't typically pre-announced, and why Apple says things like "transition will occur over a period of 2 years" and then actually happens in 6 months, like the Intel transition. That the new machines will be significantly faster.
This commentary was all over every Intel->ARM thread, until today, when suddenly every comment seemed to be that people were obviously buying Intel Macs to avoid having to buy ARM. Which doesn't really make sense -- you can always buy an Intel Mac up to and including the day the ARM machines drop. Probably at a steep discount, too. Probably some time after the ARM machines come out. There's no hurry.
This commentary was all over every Intel->ARM thread, until today, when suddenly every comment seemed to be that people were obviously buying Intel Macs to avoid having to buy ARM. Which doesn't really make sense -- you can always buy an Intel Mac up to and including the day the ARM machines drop. Probably at a steep discount, too. Probably some time after the ARM machines come out. There's no hurry.
> you can always buy an Intel Mac up to and including the day the ARM machines drop.
You can, but when you know they're about to switch architectures, it's a pretty good guess that what they're not about to do is announce a whole new slate of devices using the old architecture. So even if they still sell them in two years, they'll probably still be the same specs, and without a price cut so as to discourage people from buying the existing one instead of the new one. So if you know you're going to buy the existing one, there's little reason to wait. Especially when they have a record of claiming they'll sell them for two years and then stopping after six months.
You can, but when you know they're about to switch architectures, it's a pretty good guess that what they're not about to do is announce a whole new slate of devices using the old architecture. So even if they still sell them in two years, they'll probably still be the same specs, and without a price cut so as to discourage people from buying the existing one instead of the new one. So if you know you're going to buy the existing one, there's little reason to wait. Especially when they have a record of claiming they'll sell them for two years and then stopping after six months.
Fair. Maybe that's what kept me from shedding a tear of my recent top-o'-the-line Air purchase. That, or the knowledge that, after 9 years with the old one, It Was Time, one way or the other.
I’m one of them. Bought a used 2015 13” back in 2017 just to get the old keyboard back. Sold it a few months ago for the 2020 13”.
The new 27" iMacs have been in relatively low stock as well online and from resellers.
The features there + uncertain concerns about Apple Silicon for iMacs pushed me to get one and I've been very happy with it.
The features there + uncertain concerns about Apple Silicon for iMacs pushed me to get one and I've been very happy with it.
Can the iMacs be used as an external monitor for other computers?
No. That used to be a thing but it has been discontinued.
1014 iMacs were the last to support target display mode:
https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT204592
1014 iMacs were the last to support target display mode:
https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT204592
I used to have one years ago and it was a real joy to use. They’re pretty incredible machines. Unfortunately I’m not much of a desktop person... although oddly, I’d like to be. I find it hard to give up portability for my main machine though.
I’ve sat and ogled the newer iMacs for sure though, and I’m looking forward to seeing where the line goes.
I’ve sat and ogled the newer iMacs for sure though, and I’m looking forward to seeing where the line goes.
Similar here, but... considering new iMac in next few months, because the covid stuff has meant... I'm not nearly as mobile as I used to be. 2019 MBP will keep me going for mobility needs in the next couple years, but a desktop will give me somewhat better processing speeds for some tasks (some video, some data crunching).
There is a 4-5 week order time for custom iMacs at the moment.
In the case of the 27" iMac, it's weird. When I BTO the highest-end SKU (https://www.apple.com/shop/buy-mac/imac/27-inch-3.8ghz-8-cor...) w/ the 5700XT GPU (a recommended upgrade), the order time actually decreases by 10 days.
This was a 27" iMac, but not the high end model like yours. Wonder what parts are causing the delays?
I think it is a combination of Work from Home, ARM Transition people wanting at least one more x86 MacBook / iMac and possibly Mac Pro from Studio so everyone could put off the ARM transition with Pro Tools for as long as possible.
But 50% increase in Mac is quite something.
The problem with these sales figure is that Apple thinks their Mac are doing great and their customer loves it. ( There are lot of people forced / locked into buying it and use it but dont loves it )
Let wait and see if Apple release a new Mac customer satisfaction number after discontinuing in the past quarters.
But 50% increase in Mac is quite something.
The problem with these sales figure is that Apple thinks their Mac are doing great and their customer loves it. ( There are lot of people forced / locked into buying it and use it but dont loves it )
Let wait and see if Apple release a new Mac customer satisfaction number after discontinuing in the past quarters.
Not to mention the boost they will get from Apple One subscriptions. The $30 plan is almost a no brainer for families if they're already paying for iCloud and music.
Indeed. My family pays $15 for Music and $10 for 2TB iCloud. For $5 more we will get Fitness, Arcade, News+, and TV+.
I bet their service revenue will see quite a boost from Apple One.
I bet their service revenue will see quite a boost from Apple One.
I anticipate the in the next quarter report which should include the iphone 12 sales, we should see a continued trend of lower sales. Primarily because it seems they had a lot of constraint in manufacturing and distribution with these models. There has been super strong demand early on with all the carrier incentives but once people saw the distribution delays that went out almost a month, I think that demand quickly died down as people wait for faster arrival times and more option diversity (iphone 12 mini models come to market).
This is all speculation and I am using my own experience here to determine this but I don’t think the coming results are going to be as aggressive within the next quarter or so as distribution for the phones continue to be limited with rising cases and manufacturing capacity also potentially being limited
This is all speculation and I am using my own experience here to determine this but I don’t think the coming results are going to be as aggressive within the next quarter or so as distribution for the phones continue to be limited with rising cases and manufacturing capacity also potentially being limited
No idea why you think there is a constraint or distribution problem.
The reality is both iPhone 12 and Pro are doing exceptionally well in most if not all market. ( May be not Europe )
The reality is both iPhone 12 and Pro are doing exceptionally well in most if not all market. ( May be not Europe )
Mac sales offer lower margin than iPhone sales, as I understand. 9B in mac sales does not translate to the same amount of profit as 9B in iPhone sales would be.
China sales were down quite a bit (28.8% QoQ). That drew my attention because China is supposedly a growth market for Apple.
China sales were down quite a bit (28.8% QoQ). That drew my attention because China is supposedly a growth market for Apple.
Macs might have lower margin on a percentage basis but the average selling price is probably 2-3x the iPhone ASP. So the profit for unit is almost certainly higher.
Sure. However, Apple reports revenue in terms of dollars sold, not units sold. I don't see how profit per unit is relevant when you're reading a 10Q.
You can look at HPQ's PC margin (and adjust based on how much extra % premium you think Apple charges versus HPQ) to get a rough idea of the margins for Macs.
The point is, people are looking at this revenue number as a beat, but in reality it would be a far better situation to have missed on Mac revenue and beat on iPhone revenue, due to the differences in margin.
You can look at HPQ's PC margin (and adjust based on how much extra % premium you think Apple charges versus HPQ) to get a rough idea of the margins for Macs.
The point is, people are looking at this revenue number as a beat, but in reality it would be a far better situation to have missed on Mac revenue and beat on iPhone revenue, due to the differences in margin.
You’re right, I read it too fast as 9M units not 9B in revenue. I’m sure Apples margins on Macs are much higher than the rest of the PC industry but they’re almost certainly making less margin on them than on iPhones.
That being said, I don’t think missing on iPhones for this quarter that includes the time period right before a major release is particularly damning. If they miss NEXT quarter that would be a big problem.
That being said, I don’t think missing on iPhones for this quarter that includes the time period right before a major release is particularly damning. If they miss NEXT quarter that would be a big problem.
> Mac Sales absolutely crushed the number, by an almost 3B beat (9B vs 6B). That is HUGE.
I'm eagerly waiting to be an early adopter on their non-Intel laptops as soon as they come out as well. I'm sure I'm not alone.
I'm eagerly waiting to be an early adopter on their non-Intel laptops as soon as they come out as well. I'm sure I'm not alone.
Particularly if it's a fast + light + long-lasting 12" MacBook revival.
I am just worried about all my developer tools (Docker, VMware Fusion, VirtualBox, brew) all breaking switching to ARM.
Apple demoed Docker and Parallels at the Developer State of the Union, and has written a new Hypervisor.framework for the new Macs. I think it'll be fine (I'll be sure once VirtualBox gets working on it, with the amount of trouble they've had with the new Windows Hypervisor I hope it'll be faster).
I thought they'd already confirmed that x86_64 virtualization won't be possible on Silicon?
If so that rules out a significant number of development use cases.
If so that rules out a significant number of development use cases.
What Apple has said is that you can't run existing x86 virtualization applications on top of Rosetta 2. So you can't take the copy of Parallels you have today and run it on Rosetta 2. Which make sense, since that would be running emulation on top of an emulation--likely to be super slow.
Instead, what you will do is get a new version of x86 virtualization applications (like Parallels) that run directly on top of Apple Silicon--in other words, you use them instead of Rosetta 2, not on top of Rosetta 2. That's what easton is talking about, above.
Instead, what you will do is get a new version of x86 virtualization applications (like Parallels) that run directly on top of Apple Silicon--in other words, you use them instead of Rosetta 2, not on top of Rosetta 2. That's what easton is talking about, above.
X86 virtualization on top of an x86 CPU is a fairly trivial task. Running the same on top of ARM at reasonable speeds is much more difficult. What makes you think Parallels will be able to pull it off anytime soon?
What I've been able to find is that Rosetta will run 64 bit Intel apps, but that won't help the likes of Parallels.
So there will be no way to run Windows/Intel in a VM? Or even Linux/Intel or older versions of Mac OS for that matter?
That's bad.
So there will be no way to run Windows/Intel in a VM? Or even Linux/Intel or older versions of Mac OS for that matter?
That's bad.
Docker already runs fine on ARM Linux, I can't imagine porting to Apple's ARM flavor of Unix is that much harder
This isn't really how it works. I mean, it won't necessarily be difficult, but having it working on ARM Linux means very little for it working on macOS.
I disagree. On MacOS (x86) Docker runs inside a VM; which is running Linux (since Docker needs Linux kernel features). On the forthcoming ARM version of MacOS, it will need to run a VM, running the ARM version of linux.
So having Docker working on the ARM version of linux is a good portion of the work needed to get it to run on ARM MacOS. You still have to get the VM and communications setup done, but Apple has already said they have done much of that work.
So having Docker working on the ARM version of linux is a good portion of the work needed to get it to run on ARM MacOS. You still have to get the VM and communications setup done, but Apple has already said they have done much of that work.
Linux working on ARM is not new work at all.
But setting up a VM to run Linux on ARM on top of MacOS on ARM is new work
Those will be ok, I’m thinking of R packages I use which build FORTRAN code on installation.
If they build on installation, then Apple just needs to make sure they have build tools ready. That's easy pickings compared to porting individual packages or apps.
gcc is not supported on the Apple Silicon yet. So anything that relies on that is going to be an issue.
[deleted]
Mind if I ask why?
It will take quite some time for everything to be ported. And there will always be the longtail that never will be.
It will take quite some time for everything to be ported. And there will always be the longtail that never will be.
I’ll probably grab a pro machine if they announce one since I’m sitting on a 2013 macbook pro, it still goes great but I’m starting to feel compile times eat up a bit of my day. Most of what I need to work, XCode, Docker and a web browser will be available.
I use Chrome, Sublime Text, Terminal, WhatsApp, Messages, Skype, Discord, Hex Fiend, Calculator, AnyDesk, Ghidra, and Notes. What would I be waiting for port wise day 1?
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I've got a 2017 MBP and am planning to get rid of it before the 4 year keyboard service program ends on it.
My iPad Pro has become my default mobile device, so I'd prefer to get something like a Mac Mini and am hoping they have something worth buying. The current Mac Mini is just a hard no at this point.
My iPad Pro has become my default mobile device, so I'd prefer to get something like a Mac Mini and am hoping they have something worth buying. The current Mac Mini is just a hard no at this point.
You're not alone. My 2019 15" MacBook was damaged beyond repair just before they announced the ARM transition. I decided to wait and I've been programming on a 2012 Mac Mini for the past few months. Amazing machine considering it's age, but I'm very ready for a new one.
I have a rule of thumb with Apple: get the fourth iteration of any new offering.
I don't always apply it, admittedly: I ordered a HomePod the day they were announced.
But you'd have to pay me to be part of the first wave of A series Macs. Second is a maybe, third, I'd consider it, by the fourth I'm positively looking forward to it.
I'm glad there are people like you, who are willing to shake the bugs out on my behalf ;)
I don't always apply it, admittedly: I ordered a HomePod the day they were announced.
But you'd have to pay me to be part of the first wave of A series Macs. Second is a maybe, third, I'd consider it, by the fourth I'm positively looking forward to it.
I'm glad there are people like you, who are willing to shake the bugs out on my behalf ;)
I bought the first white x86 MacBook on the day it was announced, and it went pretty well. There was one design issue that needed fixed in the first year, but other than that it was a solid laptop for 5 years or more till it finally died. I would have waited, but I was extending the life of the previous tibook for a year prior.
I’m not in the market for a laptop now, but I’m really curious about what’s in the pipeline. Oddly enough, My MBP is about as old as the tibook was in that transition, but it’s not feeling slow or ole enough to replace yet.
I’m not in the market for a laptop now, but I’m really curious about what’s in the pipeline. Oddly enough, My MBP is about as old as the tibook was in that transition, but it’s not feeling slow or ole enough to replace yet.
There were a lot of teething problems with the first generation of Intel Macs. The Mac Pro had 32-bit EFI, which was a strange choice (it was a 64-bit machine), and which they then pretty quickly decided they didn't want to support anymore. The first x86 Mini was a 32-bit CPU with the same result. They required specific GPU firmware, so you couldn't just take a GPU out of a PC, but one of the GPUs they shipped with had a high failure rate (bad capacitors) and consequently became rare and expensive.
Who knows if they'll do better this time. But the not knowing in itself is a pretty good reason to let somebody else be the guinea pig.
Who knows if they'll do better this time. But the not knowing in itself is a pretty good reason to let somebody else be the guinea pig.
> My MBP is about as old as the tibook was in that transition, but it’s not feeling slow or ole enough to replace yet.
I guess you can thank Intel for a decade of stagnation.
I guess you can thank Intel for a decade of stagnation.
I think the 2015 era MBP was also a much more durable physical design than the Titanium Powerbook g4. The keyboard is more solid, there's no paint to rub off, the panel over the dvd doesn't flex, the battery connections don't flex. Magsafe is also a better power connector than the coax plugs.
I agree. Especially as a developer. Even migrating to a new version of MacOS makes me nervous, let alone new hardware architecture. I’m excited for the future, but I’ll be late to get there.
I could never become a fan of APPLE products. A selfish company that wants to have control over every aspect of the customer's digital life. If I want to develop a software, I have to be a registered developer with Apple. If I am a user, I can hardly use software developed by non-Apple-registered developers. There is now a section on my paid legally-purchased Apple Mac, over which no one has any control or access privileges, except Apple. and they are still planning to strip users of further control over their own purchased Apple device. Every step Apple has taken over the past decade has been toward isolating and stripping the rights of its customers more and more. What amazes me is how people fall for their advertisement tricks, that anyone who uses Apple products is smarter than others.
> there was a miss on iPhone revenue which can be explained by people waiting for the new phone release.
Agree, I think a lot of people were waiting for iPhone 12 to release.
Agree, I think a lot of people were waiting for iPhone 12 to release.
It’s also possible that people use iPads and laptops more and phones less with the ongoing pandemic. I suspect that more given Samsung’s forecasts for Q4. It can be some combination of both forces.
One data point: my phone was demoted to a wallet to such a degree that when I did have to replace it, I opted for an SE just for Touch ID. I also purchased an iPad and offloaded a ton of functions onto that.
This year’s phones look great, but there’s always next year’s models or the year after’s.
This year’s phones look great, but there’s always next year’s models or the year after’s.
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Turns out that if they make computers people want to buy…they buy them!
Looking through the financial statements, comparing the year ago quarter, it appears there was a huge decrease in iPhone sales in China, but significant increases in everything else, everywhere else, which pretty much balanced out. I wonder how much of that was Chinese customers waiting for the new designs this year.
I have Chinese family, and distinctive design is a huge deal to them. They all switched to Samsung once iPhones lost their distinctive profile in the 6S/7 era, then went back into iPhones with the X.
I suspect uncertainty about whether WeChat will be available on iPhone could have hurt sales there in the last quarter as well.
I suspect uncertainty about whether WeChat will be available on iPhone could have hurt sales there in the last quarter as well.
This quarter had no new iPhone release so it doesn't make sense to compare the two.
And if my memories serve me correct iPhone 11 did very well in China. It was the iPhone XR, XS that tanked, which was a year earlier.
And if my memories serve me correct iPhone 11 did very well in China. It was the iPhone XR, XS that tanked, which was a year earlier.
iPhone release was delayed compared to last year, so obviously demand would be shifted to the next quarter. It doesn’t make sense to compare the 2 quarters for iPhone sales.
All the big tech cos announced today and all beat, yet all of them are flat to down except for Google.
Perhaps there’s a limit to already lofty valuations.
Perhaps there’s a limit to already lofty valuations.
Don't know looks to me like there is still huge upside for Apple. The services revenue has a lot of room to grow, the Apple silicon macs have good potential, even magnetic charger ecosystem can create a lot of revenue. Plus they are slowly adding new products to the mix anecdotal but I know a ton of people planing to buy a whole bunch of HomePod minis.
Technically it's hard to say that AAPL "beat," because they didn't guide for Q4 2020. They beat consensus analyst estimates, but that's not quite the same thing IMO.
What would the beat if not consensus estimates?
Management usually issues estimates as well
You're right. But management guidance is usually below consensus. If it wasn't beating their own guidance but not the expectations wouldn't be really seen as a "beat". Or maybe that's not what you mean...
"Beating" is about actual results being higher than expectations. I don't think I've ever seen someone before say "beating" with the meaning of "issuing a better-than-expected guidance". (That would be the "raise" part in "beat and raise".)
"Beating" is about actual results being higher than expectations. I don't think I've ever seen someone before say "beating" with the meaning of "issuing a better-than-expected guidance". (That would be the "raise" part in "beat and raise".)
Investors had certain expectations. Even though these companies had great quarters, investors were expecting that. There were no surprises, hence flat stocks. To phrase it another way, it was already priced in.
Everyone expected this for all big tech. Google's came as a surprise as last quarter numbers weren't that good. I am assuming it will start moving now considerably.
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There is no limit as long as the $ printer goes brrrr.
Stonks only go up.
Stonks only go up.
Tech companies continue to supplant other businesses though, I can easily see a reason to be bullish if you think they will continue to take over other markets. However, I agree, that broad market US indices will not go down in a multiple year timeline as long as the US government can help it.
Valuations are forward looking - reported earnings are backward looking.
yes, and? earnings are material events that often move share prices considerably. there are implied moves based on options prices for earnings events.
the actual stock market rarely functions like the one you read about in a CFA textbook, especially this year.
the actual stock market rarely functions like the one you read about in a CFA textbook, especially this year.
Services are so low compared to iPhone sales yet pushing them any further may well be their undoing.
You said it. I've got no problems dropping 1200 on a phone when I know it doesn't have ads, yet that's slowly not the case with iPhones anymore. I've got a bunch of my own recordings on my laptop I want to listen to on my phone, yet the only solution Apple has is for me to subscribe to a paid service (Apple music/iTunes whatever) or use a USB cable and manually copy the music to my phone. Then when listening to said recordings on my phone, the music player tries to upsell me with Apple Music.
Or Apple TV+ - I've already got the subscription, yet half of the stuff it shows me on the front page is actually movies I still need to pay extra for, and you don't find out until you try to watch the movie in question.
Or Apple TV+ - I've already got the subscription, yet half of the stuff it shows me on the front page is actually movies I still need to pay extra for, and you don't find out until you try to watch the movie in question.
> or use a USB cable and manually copy the music to my phone.
So? I don't see the problem. I sync my whole music collection to my iPhone (using iTunes' very helpful transcoding option from lossless to 256 Kbit/s in order to fit onto the 512 GB internal storage). Using an USB cable about once a week to do so isn't really an issue, is it?
> Then when listening to said recordings on my phone, the music player tries to upsell me with Apple Music.
This can be disabled in the settings entirely. That way you won't see Apple Music in the music.app. Again, I don't have any use for Apple Music either, but I think it's fine for it to be present by default since for most people streaming is the most common way to consume music these days.
So? I don't see the problem. I sync my whole music collection to my iPhone (using iTunes' very helpful transcoding option from lossless to 256 Kbit/s in order to fit onto the 512 GB internal storage). Using an USB cable about once a week to do so isn't really an issue, is it?
> Then when listening to said recordings on my phone, the music player tries to upsell me with Apple Music.
This can be disabled in the settings entirely. That way you won't see Apple Music in the music.app. Again, I don't have any use for Apple Music either, but I think it's fine for it to be present by default since for most people streaming is the most common way to consume music these days.
A revenue record, again. These targets are increasingly hard to pull off, and it seems like they're going to be pushing harder and harder, diminishing their overall value, to keep hitting them.
Hence lowering the BOM by eliminating previously-bundled accessories, new agreements favoring large carriers, an increase in services and service bundles, and so on.
I think eliminating the accessories is a net good, but it didn't result in a lower product price, one notes.
The new carrier agreements resulted in higher prices until the public outcry caused them to shift course. I wonder if they'll try it again next year.
And of course I'm going to sign up for the Apple One service bundle! But I nevertheless note that their push into paid services is how they're projecting keeping these revenue records coming.
Hence lowering the BOM by eliminating previously-bundled accessories, new agreements favoring large carriers, an increase in services and service bundles, and so on.
I think eliminating the accessories is a net good, but it didn't result in a lower product price, one notes.
The new carrier agreements resulted in higher prices until the public outcry caused them to shift course. I wonder if they'll try it again next year.
And of course I'm going to sign up for the Apple One service bundle! But I nevertheless note that their push into paid services is how they're projecting keeping these revenue records coming.
Chargers aside, iPhone 12 mini and SE2 bring unparalleled value. It’s funny cause all you’ve got to do is make small phone with flagship processor.
And iPads are just killing it. I’m not worried at all about them bringing value.
The iPads are absolutely superstars. Nothing else like them, totally agreed.
But from a strictly-monetary perspective, the issue is that they last too long. That is, they hold their value to me for years, so I don't feel any pressure to upgrade frequently, and from the stats, it appears I'm not alone.
But from a strictly-monetary perspective, the issue is that they last too long. That is, they hold their value to me for years, so I don't feel any pressure to upgrade frequently, and from the stats, it appears I'm not alone.
Actually that’s the only reason I buy Apple after being fed up with a few androids, so surely it mustn’t be that big of a problem?
For all the bullshit about planned obsolescence, iPhones have always lasted twice as long as most of their competitors, and that hasn’t hurt Apple one bit. With the increasing emphasis on services, customer satisfaction and loyalty is more important than ever.
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That's why they want to sell Apple subscription or whatever to you.
It's interesting to see the proportion of revenue of iPhone vs. their other products. It's unparallelled, but based on the dip from last year seems equally volatile / subject to competitive forces.
You can see everything else (Mac, iPad, accessories) trending up vs. last year.
You can see everything else (Mac, iPad, accessories) trending up vs. last year.
Hmm, dividends are about 1/4th of what they were last quarter ($0.205/share vs. $0.82/share: https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/07/apple-reports-third-q... )
EDIT: duh
EDIT: duh
That sounds right, since Apple just completed a four-for-one stock split: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-things-to-know-about-app...
Stock split.
Isn’t this because they did a stock split type of thing recently?
TL;DR Apple kills it again with record revenue as well as all-time quarterly records for Services and Mac revenue:
Revenue: 64.7B
Profit: 12.7B
Revenue: 64.7B
Profit: 12.7B
Yay! More massive destruction of Mother Earth for throwaway toys!
Throwaway? The Apple laptops and IPads we have are extremely long lasting and robust (except for the laptop version which we all love to hate and for a reason).
The Ipad 2 especially was a masterpiece of durable design - that tablet lasted nearly a decade with two kids intermittently stroking it with their grubby hands, growing from toddlers to schoolchildren. Not throwaway!
The Ipad 2 especially was a masterpiece of durable design - that tablet lasted nearly a decade with two kids intermittently stroking it with their grubby hands, growing from toddlers to schoolchildren. Not throwaway!
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In the scheme of things, please realize that 5 years is not "extremely long lasting", it is fleeting and the damage to the planet (and people) for those 5 years will take millenia to repair, if it even can.
The timespan is from purchase to date. The devices are all still in working condition. I can't predict how long they will last. You are of course right but I don't think giving up generic computing is the answer though.
Apple is the most environmentally responsible purveyor of mobile devices in the game.
Not because of all the fluff about mercury-free this and that: simply because they support their products for longer than anyone else. Much longer.
As a result, they hold their market value better, meaning they're more likely to be sold than chucked in a drawer or thrown away.
You can apply a similar argument to their laptops, although the community around old ThinkPads makes me wonder if Apple might be #2 in that sector.
Ah, but AirPods! You've got me, that's 14 grams of high technology which is only good for a couple years of enjoyment. Basically anything else Apple sells is designed for a decade or more of daily use.
There are millions of iPhones 4 still in use, mostly in developing nations. They still receive security updates. Show me another manufacturer which does this: you can't.
Not because of all the fluff about mercury-free this and that: simply because they support their products for longer than anyone else. Much longer.
As a result, they hold their market value better, meaning they're more likely to be sold than chucked in a drawer or thrown away.
You can apply a similar argument to their laptops, although the community around old ThinkPads makes me wonder if Apple might be #2 in that sector.
Ah, but AirPods! You've got me, that's 14 grams of high technology which is only good for a couple years of enjoyment. Basically anything else Apple sells is designed for a decade or more of daily use.
There are millions of iPhones 4 still in use, mostly in developing nations. They still receive security updates. Show me another manufacturer which does this: you can't.
I think I've had the same AirPods since '16 or '17. They last more than a couple years if you treat them well (my cats chewed on them, though, which has made one of the earpieces more hit-and-miss but still functional, can't run with them because the sweat will get inside now). I'll likely replace them in '21, giving me 4-5 years of life out of them. That's probably a better life span (but not better cost wise) than most wired headphones I've had (suffered various fates from loss, theft, to cat vandalism).
>Apple is the most environmentally responsible purveyor of mobile devices in the game
I would say that Apple devices are long lasting despite Apples best efforts to the contrary. In my country, India, at least, Apple charges absurd amounts for out of warranty repairs. 10 out of 10 cases i know, it would maker more economical sense to buy new rather than repair at authorized service centers. Sometimes the Apple service centers give the same advice.
Luckily the 3rd party networks provide good and affordable support for Apple phones at least. But Apple is fighting tooth and nail to shut these guys out. Pushing up the cost of repair with every new generation.
On laptops its worse. Apple is really pushing hard to shorten their useful life. Worst part is that they're setting the path for the rest of the industry to follow. Non-removable batteries, soldered RAM, CPU, SSDs, removing backward compatible ports, Use of adhesives, glass in place of screws - making repairs expensive and error-prone. List goes on and on..
I would say that Apple devices are long lasting despite Apples best efforts to the contrary. In my country, India, at least, Apple charges absurd amounts for out of warranty repairs. 10 out of 10 cases i know, it would maker more economical sense to buy new rather than repair at authorized service centers. Sometimes the Apple service centers give the same advice.
Luckily the 3rd party networks provide good and affordable support for Apple phones at least. But Apple is fighting tooth and nail to shut these guys out. Pushing up the cost of repair with every new generation.
On laptops its worse. Apple is really pushing hard to shorten their useful life. Worst part is that they're setting the path for the rest of the industry to follow. Non-removable batteries, soldered RAM, CPU, SSDs, removing backward compatible ports, Use of adhesives, glass in place of screws - making repairs expensive and error-prone. List goes on and on..
> the most environmentally responsible in the game
Yay! Says nothing, though. The entire industry is helping to rapidly destroy everything of true value on this planet, for throwaway toys. So apple is rape lite?
Yay! Says nothing, though. The entire industry is helping to rapidly destroy everything of true value on this planet, for throwaway toys. So apple is rape lite?
This is such a bad argument. We might as well call you a waste of space on earth, you’re constantly consuming energy and increasing entropy and reducing the dispersion of heat in the universe.
is it really? Or people just dont like to be pointed out on needless consumerism?
Here we are on an internet discussion board bemoaning people’s decisions to purchase internet-connected electronic devices?
Mac Sales absolutely crushed the number, by an almost 3B beat (9B vs 6B). That is HUGE.
Apple is going to have a phenomenal next quarter.