Bay Area restaurants consider closing due to outdoor dining ban(sfchronicle.com)
sfchronicle.com
Bay Area restaurants consider closing due to outdoor dining ban
https://www.sfchronicle.com/restaurants/article/Something-has-to-give-Bay-Area-restaurants-15774785.php
89 comments
I headed to Townsend the other morning to grab breakfast and was surprised to see the sign. That's the fourth(!) "spot" that I used to visit regularly that has now permanently closed in my area.
Does anyone know where the state/city legislature is hosted online? I'm genuinely curious on what the laws are that give officials authority to close businesses like they have over the past 9 months.
Does anyone know where the state/city legislature is hosted online? I'm genuinely curious on what the laws are that give officials authority to close businesses like they have over the past 9 months.
Wouldn't a 40-years old restaurant have no debt to pay and a good treasury? I would assume they paid back any debt by then, and could survive for a long time without doing business
Maybe if the restaurant owned the building but otherwise the rent alone could chew through the profit of a restaurant or bar pretty fast. It is difficult to buy the building of a successful restaurant unless you had a right of first refusal or buyout option in the initial lease. Landlords are reluctant to sell you the building for anything reasonable if they feel you are successful as their money is fairly safe and inflation adjusted. I run two bars. One of them is five years old and very successful. I would say right now it has about eight months of rent payments until it would be a problem.
It’s been 9 months... they still have to pay rent and equipment costs and staff
“I don't know that this is the right or wrong decision, but it's just awful that this is happening, and we need to acknowledge how fucking terribly this has been handled.”
I don’t understand how you can draw the conclusion. There are many reasons you might take the opportunity to bow out of a business after 40 years. Let alone in the restaurant industry. Was their lease up? Sad, true. But, smoking gun? You don’t know the restaurant industry.
I don’t understand how you can draw the conclusion. There are many reasons you might take the opportunity to bow out of a business after 40 years. Let alone in the restaurant industry. Was their lease up? Sad, true. But, smoking gun? You don’t know the restaurant industry.
Don't be obtuse, it's quite obvious why a restaurant would close right now. You're really grasping at straws if you're trying to say that they've closed for any other reason.
I mean I literally talked to them about it.
haha! Unless you’re their lawyer, accountant, investor or spouse then you’re public. And there’s a difference between what is the truth and what you tell the world in hospitality, and you _literally_ do it every business day.
COVID is the situation and restaurants are among the industries hit the hardest by airborne disease spread indoors. Sheesh. Maybe I'm reading too much into a flip cursing comment suggesting there's _a person_, or _agency_ who deserves blame. I think it's more likely doubt and anxiety underlying that comment. Anxiety about _our own_ uncertain future, and grief in dealing with loss. And for that you have my sympathies. We are all touched by this disease.
COVID is the situation and restaurants are among the industries hit the hardest by airborne disease spread indoors. Sheesh. Maybe I'm reading too much into a flip cursing comment suggesting there's _a person_, or _agency_ who deserves blame. I think it's more likely doubt and anxiety underlying that comment. Anxiety about _our own_ uncertain future, and grief in dealing with loss. And for that you have my sympathies. We are all touched by this disease.
What incentive would they have to lie, given they're losing their business? Besides, I've known them for years.
I'm not sure what you mean with regards to a person or agency. There are multiple people and agencies that failed drastically here.
I'm not sure what you mean with regards to a person or agency. There are multiple people and agencies that failed drastically here.
Here is an article about how COVID has devastated businesses in NYC https://www.curbed.com/article/nyc-businesses-closed-2020-pa...
Just reality. Peace.
The state government has not provided evidence that outdoor dining is responsible for much of the spread.
At the same time, people have been travelling for Thanksgiving, and people are gathering with friends and relatives inside private homes more frequently than before. That isn't going to stop happening. If restaurants are closed, that might happen even more often, because there is nowhere else to do it!
Law enforcement in parts of the state have already told us that they won't enforce curfews, or won't use curfews as probable cause for stopping people who are out and about. So, stay-at-home orders won't prevent private gatherings and travel from continuing to happen.
The only way to actually stop the spread is to prevent people from having physical contact with people from other households, and we clearly aren't willing to do that. Orders to stop outdoor dining are going to kill businesses and cause people to lose their jobs for minimal public health gain.
At the same time, people have been travelling for Thanksgiving, and people are gathering with friends and relatives inside private homes more frequently than before. That isn't going to stop happening. If restaurants are closed, that might happen even more often, because there is nowhere else to do it!
Law enforcement in parts of the state have already told us that they won't enforce curfews, or won't use curfews as probable cause for stopping people who are out and about. So, stay-at-home orders won't prevent private gatherings and travel from continuing to happen.
The only way to actually stop the spread is to prevent people from having physical contact with people from other households, and we clearly aren't willing to do that. Orders to stop outdoor dining are going to kill businesses and cause people to lose their jobs for minimal public health gain.
> The state government has not provided evidence that outdoor dining is responsible for much of the spread.
When Los Angeles County recently ordered outdoor dining to be shut down, they were sued. A judge just ruled that the county must provide evidence linking outdoor dining to COVID spread: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-02/covid-19...
When Los Angeles County recently ordered outdoor dining to be shut down, they were sued. A judge just ruled that the county must provide evidence linking outdoor dining to COVID spread: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-02/covid-19...
>>"The state government has not provided evidence that outdoor dining is responsible for much of the spread."
- This is outrageous. This is the same government who has been shutting beaches in Northern California few months ago, despite all the "science" (which they claim to follow) pointing to the fact that outdoor transmission is very unlikely.
- This is outrageous. This is the same government who has been shutting beaches in Northern California few months ago, despite all the "science" (which they claim to follow) pointing to the fact that outdoor transmission is very unlikely.
I was at downtown Woodside CA last week and outdoor dining area was packed. And this is one of the most conscious places. I believe with a limited number of people and distance rules outdoor activity is okay, but dense outdoor dining is suspicious.
Same with beach. beach is okay, a packed beach (try a popular one in half moon bay) might not be.
Same with beach. beach is okay, a packed beach (try a popular one in half moon bay) might not be.
San Mateo county isn’t following the rules..they are exempt from dining regulations. Woodside is an unincorporated town, iirc. The state parks and beaches in pescadaro and half moon bay etc is only for the residents. You are asked to turn back if you are not a resident. The cops run your plates. At least this was the case during the first lockdown. Not so much during the second one.
There are 54 counties in California. Only 41 counties have mandatory lockdown.
There are 54 counties in California. Only 41 counties have mandatory lockdown.
Meanwhile ..
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/12.3.20-St... : what the regional order says..
It’s really weird. We can’t eat outdoors but can congregate indoors. We can worship together and participate in protests, but can’t use outdoor playgrounds.
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/12.3.20-St... : what the regional order says..
It’s really weird. We can’t eat outdoors but can congregate indoors. We can worship together and participate in protests, but can’t use outdoor playgrounds.
It must be very frustrating to lose your business or your job because of public health restrictions like banning outdoor dining, while at the same time you see the government doing nothing about other activities which are far more risky.
> We can worship together and participate in protests, but can’t use outdoor playgrounds.
They'd prohibit both religious gatherings and protests if they legally could. These are both explicitly listed as protected under the 1st Amendment to the U.S. constitution, so it wouldn't survive a court challenge, especially since a similar restriction from New York has already been struck down as unconstitutional.
They'd prohibit both religious gatherings and protests if they legally could. These are both explicitly listed as protected under the 1st Amendment to the U.S. constitution, so it wouldn't survive a court challenge, especially since a similar restriction from New York has already been struck down as unconstitutional.
> and people are gathering with friends and relatives inside private homes more frequently than before
We didn't learn our lesson from the war on drugs. When you make something completely off limits people will find a way to engage, but without any standards.
Meeting people in secret (mask free) is the new drugs.
We didn't learn our lesson from the war on drugs. When you make something completely off limits people will find a way to engage, but without any standards.
Meeting people in secret (mask free) is the new drugs.
Also, many sheriffs have said they will not enforce Newsom's order: https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/12/05/stay-at-home-orde...
This probably reveals several things:
1. Newsom's authority is not respected by law enforcement
2. Law enforcement thinks the curfew is not necessary
3. Law enforcement doesn't enjoy a governor springing new rules on them without advance notice, which is the result of his making things up as he goes along
This is little league stuff. It's not the way a state in a first-world country should be operating.
1. Newsom's authority is not respected by law enforcement
2. Law enforcement thinks the curfew is not necessary
3. Law enforcement doesn't enjoy a governor springing new rules on them without advance notice, which is the result of his making things up as he goes along
This is little league stuff. It's not the way a state in a first-world country should be operating.
Under the assumption that Gavin Newsom and his administration probably aren't completely stupid, we can come up with a more charitable (and likely realistic) revelations:
1. County sheriffs only have direct jurisdiction over unincorporated areas, which are typically rural and are unlikely to be a significant source of spread.
2. These orders are likely intended to give local governments stronger authority to shut down gatherings, should they choose to use it.
3. Even if local authorities refuse to enforce the orders, there are no explicitly COVID-19 liability protections for businesses that I'm aware of. If an outbreak occurs that can be traced back to a business that was operating against regulations, that in and of itself would make the business operators jointly (if not entirely) liable, and would give insurance companies a defensible reason for not paying out claims.
1. County sheriffs only have direct jurisdiction over unincorporated areas, which are typically rural and are unlikely to be a significant source of spread.
2. These orders are likely intended to give local governments stronger authority to shut down gatherings, should they choose to use it.
3. Even if local authorities refuse to enforce the orders, there are no explicitly COVID-19 liability protections for businesses that I'm aware of. If an outbreak occurs that can be traced back to a business that was operating against regulations, that in and of itself would make the business operators jointly (if not entirely) liable, and would give insurance companies a defensible reason for not paying out claims.
> County sheriffs only have direct jurisdiction over unincorporated areas, which are typically rural and are unlikely to be a significant source of spread.
The counties discussed in the linked article are Orange County, Riverside, and other similar counties. These are not "the boonies".
The counties discussed in the linked article are Orange County, Riverside, and other similar counties. These are not "the boonies".
The populated parts of those counties will be their own cities, which the county sheriffs have limited jurisdiction over. These cities will either have their own police departments, or they'll contract with the county sheriff to enforce the laws and regulations (in which case the decision on whether or not to enforce curfew will be the city's, not the sheriff's).
This is simply not true. For example, I live in unincorporated San Mateo County. By your hypothesis, I live in an area that is not heavily populated. But it's a regular suburban neighborhood that is 3 miles from downtown Palo Alto and downtown Menlo Park. I have lived in both NorCal and SoCal, and this is common in both areas. Where do you live, and what makes you so certain that unincorporated areas in California are not populated?
Separately, do you really think that if the OC Sheriff says "we are not enforcing Newsom's rules" that the deputies are going to enforce those rules in cities within their patrol areas? If a Sheriff has decided not to enforce a law in his jurisdiction, why would he direct his deputies to enforce that same law in other parts of his patrol area?
Separately, do you really think that if the OC Sheriff says "we are not enforcing Newsom's rules" that the deputies are going to enforce those rules in cities within their patrol areas? If a Sheriff has decided not to enforce a law in his jurisdiction, why would he direct his deputies to enforce that same law in other parts of his patrol area?
> Where do you live, and what makes you so certain that unincorporated areas in California are not populated?
I live in Southern California, one of the areas of currently under a state mandated stay-at-home order.
And I never said unincorporated areas where unpopulated, I said they were rural, which implies that they're sparsely populated. This is partly by definition (a city would either be part of an urban center, or its own urban center), and partly because populations that are dense enough tend to form cities.
And to be clear, when I refer to "city", I'm referring to incorporated cities, not just major cities.
> Separately, do you really think that if the OC Sheriff says "we are not enforcing Newsom's rules" that the deputies are going to enforce those rules in cities within their patrol areas? If a Sheriff has decided not to enforce a law in his jurisdiction, why would he direct his deputies to enforce that same law in other parts of his patrol area?
Yes.
Again, Sheriffs only have direct jurisdiction over unincorporated areas of the county. Cities are their own jurisdiction. The cities may contract with the Sheriff for policing, but the deputies would be following the direction of the city government in that case. If the city directs their police to enforce a stay-at-home order (be it the city's own police or Sheriff deputies policing on behalf of the city), the police would have no legal basis to refuse. They may not be able to practically enforce such an order, but that's a different issue.
I live in Southern California, one of the areas of currently under a state mandated stay-at-home order.
And I never said unincorporated areas where unpopulated, I said they were rural, which implies that they're sparsely populated. This is partly by definition (a city would either be part of an urban center, or its own urban center), and partly because populations that are dense enough tend to form cities.
And to be clear, when I refer to "city", I'm referring to incorporated cities, not just major cities.
> Separately, do you really think that if the OC Sheriff says "we are not enforcing Newsom's rules" that the deputies are going to enforce those rules in cities within their patrol areas? If a Sheriff has decided not to enforce a law in his jurisdiction, why would he direct his deputies to enforce that same law in other parts of his patrol area?
Yes.
Again, Sheriffs only have direct jurisdiction over unincorporated areas of the county. Cities are their own jurisdiction. The cities may contract with the Sheriff for policing, but the deputies would be following the direction of the city government in that case. If the city directs their police to enforce a stay-at-home order (be it the city's own police or Sheriff deputies policing on behalf of the city), the police would have no legal basis to refuse. They may not be able to practically enforce such an order, but that's a different issue.
Yes. You are right. It is also related to funding issue for schools and law enforcement. They are exempt from a lot of restrictions of other cities, but have limited facilities.
Both my farms are in unincorporated towns. There is no police dept. I have to call the sheriff’s office. Entirely diff jurisdiction.
Both my farms are in unincorporated towns. There is no police dept. I have to call the sheriff’s office. Entirely diff jurisdiction.
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Most outdoor dining I've seen in the bay area looks downright scary to me.
The guideline is 2 meters of distance WITH masks; considering eating can't be done with masks I'd want at least 6+ meters of distance without masks, and in reality many of them don't even meet 2 meters.
Add to that wait staff who aren't wearing a proper KN95 or N95 masks while serving dozens of customers; many of them have only surgical or cloth masks which wouldn't make safe handling my food.
I'm also in a risk group for COVID though so I'm extra cautious.
The guideline is 2 meters of distance WITH masks; considering eating can't be done with masks I'd want at least 6+ meters of distance without masks, and in reality many of them don't even meet 2 meters.
Add to that wait staff who aren't wearing a proper KN95 or N95 masks while serving dozens of customers; many of them have only surgical or cloth masks which wouldn't make safe handling my food.
I'm also in a risk group for COVID though so I'm extra cautious.
I mean, I'm tolerant of most all the public health measures that are taken out of reasonable caution by the state+county authorities, but this feels like overkill.
Is there strong evidence that outdoor eating is causing significant transmission? Enough to impose this cost on a struggling sector?
We're in the phase now where we understand enough to be more targeted aren't we?
Is there strong evidence that outdoor eating is causing significant transmission? Enough to impose this cost on a struggling sector?
We're in the phase now where we understand enough to be more targeted aren't we?
A lot of it is a panic mode--December is going to be a very cruel month. And if the medical system collapses under strain, a mob will be at public health officials' throats screaming bloody murder. "Why didn't you shut down restaurants when you could?" I don't envy their position.
I worry that this will end up being counterproductive, though. Probably the net number of people meeting other people will go down. However, of those who still meet other people, they will likely meet somewhere indoors (someone's home for dinner), which is much more dangerous than outdoor dining.
I worry that this will end up being counterproductive, though. Probably the net number of people meeting other people will go down. However, of those who still meet other people, they will likely meet somewhere indoors (someone's home for dinner), which is much more dangerous than outdoor dining.
I feel like we're going to end up with the opposite question: "What good were these lockdowns when the medical system collapsed anyway?"
The current lockdown strategies, like with many political measures, seem to be more motivated by "we need to look like we're doing something" than "we need to fix the problem".
The current lockdown strategies, like with many political measures, seem to be more motivated by "we need to look like we're doing something" than "we need to fix the problem".
Collapse isn't a binary. Collapse could mean everything from a small number of the highly vulnerable being triaged away from care to a full on black-plague-like "bring out your dead".
> A lot of it is a panic mode--December is going to be a very cruel month. And if the medical system collapses under strain, a mob will be at public health officials' throats screaming bloody murder. "Why didn't you shut down restaurants when you could?" I don't envy their position.
What they should be screaming is, "Why did you squander the last lockdown? Why aren't we testing and tracing on massive scale? Why didn't we build more hospital capacity in the time we had?"
The state squandered the time we bought ourselves with the last lockdown. For example, where is the army of contact tracers we were supposed to hire?
What they should be screaming is, "Why did you squander the last lockdown? Why aren't we testing and tracing on massive scale? Why didn't we build more hospital capacity in the time we had?"
The state squandered the time we bought ourselves with the last lockdown. For example, where is the army of contact tracers we were supposed to hire?
I think that most of that exists. The state has an army of contact tracers, you just don't hear about them or their work because all of it is private and confidential. I know people through the grapevine who have been informed that they've been exposed through daycare etc. I'm awaiting the results of my second COVID test (out of an abundance of caution, I don't actually believe I have it), and the process for getting it is super easy - fill out a form online and drive through, you're in and out in 5 minutes. There's a first-hand report of a contact tracer's job here:
https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/i-m-contact-tracer-san-fr...
The San Mateo fairgrounds has a field hospital setup that's currently unused, and I understand that Santa Clara County has a couple as well. The equipment is currently being moved into real hospitals because staffing and equipment is apparently more of a bottleneck than space.
The problem is that nothing can stop an exponential curve other than bringing the exponent under 1.0. You can delay by minimizing it, but an Rt of 1.2 vs 2.0 just means it doubles in 4 weeks rather than 1. You're still screwed, you just have longer to get there.
https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/i-m-contact-tracer-san-fr...
The San Mateo fairgrounds has a field hospital setup that's currently unused, and I understand that Santa Clara County has a couple as well. The equipment is currently being moved into real hospitals because staffing and equipment is apparently more of a bottleneck than space.
The problem is that nothing can stop an exponential curve other than bringing the exponent under 1.0. You can delay by minimizing it, but an Rt of 1.2 vs 2.0 just means it doubles in 4 weeks rather than 1. You're still screwed, you just have longer to get there.
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The biggest lever they could have pushed was releasing a vaccine earlier.
That's... not something that state or local authorities have the ability to do.
Sorry I wasn't clear, I was talking about public health officials in general not local and state public health officials specifically.
OP talks about how people will be coming with pitchforks for public health officials. I think more ire will be directed at national public health officials than state and local ones. The national ones obviously screwed up when it came to messaging regarding masks, and I think less obviously but just as importantly screwed up when it game to rolling out the vaccine.
These decisions are probably more impactful than the decisions state and local health officials made around whether bars are open or not.
OP talks about how people will be coming with pitchforks for public health officials. I think more ire will be directed at national public health officials than state and local ones. The national ones obviously screwed up when it came to messaging regarding masks, and I think less obviously but just as importantly screwed up when it game to rolling out the vaccine.
These decisions are probably more impactful than the decisions state and local health officials made around whether bars are open or not.
if we only learned from china how to combat this
Scientists are investigating the possibility that deaths in Asia have been relatively low due to prior exposure to another similar coronavirus.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/scientists-investigate-whether-...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/scientists-investigate-whether-...
How would another presumably milder coronavirus that was widespread enough in Asia to cause observable population-level effects not also be widespread in the rest of the world?
You mean, ignore it? It beggars belief that countries like New Zealand, which have significant geographical and population advantages over China, have had to work so hard to get where they are today, yet China was able to quietly beat it.
China hasn't fully beaten it and doesn't claim to have done so. They regularly have to reimpose new measures in areas where the disease flares, up to and including lockdowns - the most recent lockdown I heard about started just two weeks ago. (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3110817/coro...)
Those lockdowns also come with massive screening tests. Usually lockdowns end in a couple of weeks after the identification of clusters of transmission.
The numbers are generally small (maximum a hundredful), so not difficult to handle.
The numbers are generally small (maximum a hundredful), so not difficult to handle.
True. I don't want to imply that they don't have control of things - just, there's no secret strategy they have other than continuous application of harsh measures wherever spread is detected.
I think restaurant, retail ( non food), and hotel owners would feel like 2 weeks of harsh lockdown followed by complete masked opennings would be better than the current situation of months of non-stop partial measures.
Most of China has not had any lockdowns since July. I wish I could travel.
Most of China has not had any lockdowns since July. I wish I could travel.
What do you mean quietly beat it? Whenever they had a small outbreak, they would test the entire city. Symptomatic, asymtomatic, everyone in the span of a week. They spent a ton of money on shutdowns, testing, and contact tracing.
Yep, I've seen one or two reports of entire cities being tested. What testing method do they use, that is accurate enough to catch all cases in a very densly populated developing city (and within a week)? Unless Covid isn't as infectious as we have been lead to believe, that doesn't pass the sniff test for me.
RT-PCR, it's pretty good but takes time.
They just do batch tests and mix samples in groups, if positive, test again. My father did one a few months ago after returning from Qingdao, where there were a small outbreak then in a hospital.
China is really good at doing things at scale and honestly US is nowhere close (too slow and too inefficient, from what I see here in Santa Clara)
They just do batch tests and mix samples in groups, if positive, test again. My father did one a few months ago after returning from Qingdao, where there were a small outbreak then in a hospital.
China is really good at doing things at scale and honestly US is nowhere close (too slow and too inefficient, from what I see here in Santa Clara)
It’s PCR and you can get it down to a few hours turn around time in a lab, even in the US. China does batch testing with retests for accuracy.
The main difficulty is getting everyone to give a sample but with China’s level of social cohesion and control that is a solved problem.
The main difficulty is getting everyone to give a sample but with China’s level of social cohesion and control that is a solved problem.
It's still cheaper than what the US is currently doing. Lockdown is almost a whole year and numerous restaurants I usually go closed permanently.
While in China, it's like putting sparks off here and there, but most of people are not affected. If the problem can be solved by money, it's not a real problem.
While in China, it's like putting sparks off here and there, but most of people are not affected. If the problem can be solved by money, it's not a real problem.
How freely do large numbers of people move around the country in China?
Er.... There's no restriction. Whatever number you want. My father just traveled several times recently (each of them hundreds of miles). In China, fully moving to a different city takes some effort (schooling, etc), but simple travels are just matter of high speed rail tickets.
Actually, evidence seems to point the other way:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25314732
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25314732
That talks a lot about bad modeling, not outdoor eating?
A study was just released by Stanford University with the objective of estimating the infection fatality rate of COVID-19. The results are as follows: "In people < 70 years, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% with crude and corrected medians of 0.05%."[0]
Is it right to shut down the entire economy with these statistics or are people overreacting? High risk individuals do have the option to get food delivered to their home, if they're afraid of contracting the virus. Shouldn't they also be able to make that decision for themselves, if they're OK with taking that risk or not?
On the other hand, we don't want hospitals filling up past their limits and putting tremendous strain on health care workers. It's definitely a tricky situation.
[0]: https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf
Is it right to shut down the entire economy with these statistics or are people overreacting? High risk individuals do have the option to get food delivered to their home, if they're afraid of contracting the virus. Shouldn't they also be able to make that decision for themselves, if they're OK with taking that risk or not?
On the other hand, we don't want hospitals filling up past their limits and putting tremendous strain on health care workers. It's definitely a tricky situation.
[0]: https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf
Humans are really bad at judging risk. Here's a sample of your odds of dying from a variety of causes as a 15-45 year old, sourced from the CDC [1][2] and your paper, and assuming there are about 45 million Americans in the 15-45 year old age range:
You be the judge from that. Personally I consider COVID worrisome enough to take sensible precautions and endure some inconveniences, but not the end of the world (well, personally. It may be the end of many societies, possibly even including the U.S). The #1 health risk that people seem to undervalue is "Don't do drugs", and the #1 most overvalued is the "War on Terrorism". It's interesting how many infringements of our civil liberties and economic life we put up with in the name of curbing terrorism, when median number of terrorist deaths in the U.S. per year is 4, and COVID is 50,000 times more likely to kill us.
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/pdf/leading_causes_of_dea...
[2] https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/pdf/leading_causes_of_inj...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_the_United_States...
Drug overdose: 1 in 1000
COVID: 1 in 2000
Suicide: 1 in 2000
Car accident: 1 in 2500
[any gun-related death]: 1 in 2500
Homicide: 1 in 3000
The flu: 1 in 20,000
Struck by lighting: 1 in a million
Terrorism: 1 in ~100 million [3]
You be the judge from that. Personally I consider COVID worrisome enough to take sensible precautions and endure some inconveniences, but not the end of the world (well, personally. It may be the end of many societies, possibly even including the U.S). The #1 health risk that people seem to undervalue is "Don't do drugs", and the #1 most overvalued is the "War on Terrorism". It's interesting how many infringements of our civil liberties and economic life we put up with in the name of curbing terrorism, when median number of terrorist deaths in the U.S. per year is 4, and COVID is 50,000 times more likely to kill us.
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/pdf/leading_causes_of_dea...
[2] https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/pdf/leading_causes_of_inj...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_the_United_States...
> On the other hand, we don't want hospitals filling up past their limits and putting tremendous strain on health care workers.
This seems like it's the only thing which matters. Having a working health care system is one of the pillars of modern society?
This seems like it's the only thing which matters. Having a working health care system is one of the pillars of modern society?
On one extreme, I'm sure most people would agree it's not worth spending millions of dollars to add months to the lives of geriatric patients. How much collateral damage are we willing to endure to add another 9 to the probability a senior citizen doesn't die from the pandemic? It's a balancing act.
I don't pretend to know the answer, but in general I am opposed to another shutdown given how much we've progressed in handling this disease.
On a side note, I'm not a fan of how the 15% rule makes it seem like we're on the brink of being overrun - you have to keep in mind 60 to 80% of hospital beds are occupied by non-covid patients.
I don't pretend to know the answer, but in general I am opposed to another shutdown given how much we've progressed in handling this disease.
On a side note, I'm not a fan of how the 15% rule makes it seem like we're on the brink of being overrun - you have to keep in mind 60 to 80% of hospital beds are occupied by non-covid patients.
The IFR would be worse if medical care wasn't available because of hospitals being over-capacity and health care workers burning out (or dying themselves). Fatalities from other causes would increase too (as they're already doing due to people avoiding medical care due to fear of infection at hospitals). The absolute number of dead would also rise were the lockdowns not in place. Just how many people do we want to sacrifice to keep restaurants open?
Also, fatalities aren't the only thing we have to worry about. People who survive can have very serious complications.
Finally, why should we only look at the effects on people younger than 70?
Also, fatalities aren't the only thing we have to worry about. People who survive can have very serious complications.
Finally, why should we only look at the effects on people younger than 70?
>People who survive can have very serious complications.
This is true of several respiratory illnesses. For example there's evidence that the flu can increase the chance of a cardiovascular event for several months after recovery[0]. Is there evidence that covid has more severe long term complications than other respiratory illnesses?
>why should we only look at the effects on people younger than 70?
We shouldn't, of course. However we also shouldn't base policy off of a minority of the high risk population. Older people are also at a much higher risk of auto accidents. Instead of making the license process more difficult for everyone, several states have rules specifically for older people mandating more frequent vision tests and license renewals.
Instead of banning a low risk activity for a mostly low risk group, why don't we put resources into taking care of the high risk population(free grocery/medicine delivery, prioritized telehealth appointments, etc.) and let everyone else take care of their own risk assessment?
[0]https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/article/29/1/96/2398118
This is true of several respiratory illnesses. For example there's evidence that the flu can increase the chance of a cardiovascular event for several months after recovery[0]. Is there evidence that covid has more severe long term complications than other respiratory illnesses?
>why should we only look at the effects on people younger than 70?
We shouldn't, of course. However we also shouldn't base policy off of a minority of the high risk population. Older people are also at a much higher risk of auto accidents. Instead of making the license process more difficult for everyone, several states have rules specifically for older people mandating more frequent vision tests and license renewals.
Instead of banning a low risk activity for a mostly low risk group, why don't we put resources into taking care of the high risk population(free grocery/medicine delivery, prioritized telehealth appointments, etc.) and let everyone else take care of their own risk assessment?
[0]https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/article/29/1/96/2398118
Just a couple of days ago "the U.S. recorded over 3,100 COVID-19 deaths in a single day"[1]
I have a very hard time imagining that restaurant closings or any other lockdown measures are ever going to lead to this scale of death.
[1] - https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2020/12/03/more-than-2800-a...
I have a very hard time imagining that restaurant closings or any other lockdown measures are ever going to lead to this scale of death.
[1] - https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2020/12/03/more-than-2800-a...
“Just how many people do we want to sacrifice to keep restaurants open?”
Just how many lives do we save by keeping restaurants open? Healthier food, portion control, emotional health? People sacrifice their lives to eat in restaurants...implicitly, when they drive a car to/from and risk an auto accident. It is probably small numbers against small numbers...and erring on the side of choice and economic activity is a standard US thing.
The poster didn’t propose to ignore effects on the 70+...where did you read this?
It would have been wiser had the government health communicators introduced the notion of QALY to the US public at the start of this COVID event.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16877455/
Anyone dealing with aging parents is painfully aware of the need to balance remaining length of patient life with quality of life, including caregivers. The rest of the US needs to grow up about this. Politicians avoid talking about this...too much like leaving Grandma on the ice floe. It’s the medical/public health professionals role to do that.
Just how many lives do we save by keeping restaurants open? Healthier food, portion control, emotional health? People sacrifice their lives to eat in restaurants...implicitly, when they drive a car to/from and risk an auto accident. It is probably small numbers against small numbers...and erring on the side of choice and economic activity is a standard US thing.
The poster didn’t propose to ignore effects on the 70+...where did you read this?
It would have been wiser had the government health communicators introduced the notion of QALY to the US public at the start of this COVID event.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16877455/
Anyone dealing with aging parents is painfully aware of the need to balance remaining length of patient life with quality of life, including caregivers. The rest of the US needs to grow up about this. Politicians avoid talking about this...too much like leaving Grandma on the ice floe. It’s the medical/public health professionals role to do that.
"Just how many lives do we save by keeping restaurants open?"
You tell me. How many?
"People sacrifice their lives to eat in restaurants...implicitly, when they drive a car to/from and risk an auto accident. It is probably small numbers against small numbers"
Like I said elsewhere in this thread, just the other day the US had over 3,000 COVID-19 deaths in a single day. That doesn't sound like a small number to me, and I'd be surprised if anywhere near that number of people died driving to a restaurant that day.
"The poster didn’t propose to ignore effects on the 70+...where did you read this?"
Right. They just happened to only quote the IFR rate for people < 70 years old, and not mention the IFR for people 70 and older. That sounds like they ignored them to me.
You tell me. How many?
"People sacrifice their lives to eat in restaurants...implicitly, when they drive a car to/from and risk an auto accident. It is probably small numbers against small numbers"
Like I said elsewhere in this thread, just the other day the US had over 3,000 COVID-19 deaths in a single day. That doesn't sound like a small number to me, and I'd be surprised if anywhere near that number of people died driving to a restaurant that day.
"The poster didn’t propose to ignore effects on the 70+...where did you read this?"
Right. They just happened to only quote the IFR rate for people < 70 years old, and not mention the IFR for people 70 and older. That sounds like they ignored them to me.
>You tell me. How many?
Based on the available evidence, I think the number is close to zero.
>Restaurants have been mandated by the state to impose certain regulations and hygiene measures. They follow the general principles of harm reduction that Monica Gandhi[0], an infectious disease expert at UCSF, goes by: masks, distancing, ventilation and hand hygiene. "There is no evidence that I can find anywhere in the world that outdoor dining with those four procedures in play increases the risk of COVID-19," she said. [1]
So there seems to be no evidence that banning outdoor dining is going to do anything positive in stopping the spread, though we know for certain it will have destructive effects on people's well being and the economy.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monica_Gandhi
[1] https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Is-outdoor-...
Based on the available evidence, I think the number is close to zero.
>Restaurants have been mandated by the state to impose certain regulations and hygiene measures. They follow the general principles of harm reduction that Monica Gandhi[0], an infectious disease expert at UCSF, goes by: masks, distancing, ventilation and hand hygiene. "There is no evidence that I can find anywhere in the world that outdoor dining with those four procedures in play increases the risk of COVID-19," she said. [1]
So there seems to be no evidence that banning outdoor dining is going to do anything positive in stopping the spread, though we know for certain it will have destructive effects on people's well being and the economy.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monica_Gandhi
[1] https://www.houstonchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Is-outdoor-...
You didn't answer the question I asked, which was how many people's lives would be saved by keeping restaurants open.
Instead you answered a question I didn't ask: how many lives would be lost by allowing outdoor dining.
Two completely different questions.
However, if one of the requirements for making outdoor dining safe is to wear masks, I don't see how it can be made safe, since as far as I know people can't eat or drink with masks on.
Furthermore, at least in my own informal witnessing of people dining outdoors, the norm is for people to socialize at tables without masks, with only a couple of feet between them. I wouldn't call that social distancing either.
That's two strikes against outdoor dining: lack of masks and lack of social distancing.
I'd love to have asked that UCSF expert what she had to say about this.
Something else to consider is that restaurants aren't only doing poorly because they're being locked down, but even when they're open many people are choosing (very sensibly, from my perspective) to avoid them. That won't be fixed by ending lockdowns.
Anyway, I'm still waiting to hear someone tell me how many lives would be saved by allowing restaurants to open. Is it going to be anywhere near 3,000 in a single day? Somehow I very much doubt it.
Instead you answered a question I didn't ask: how many lives would be lost by allowing outdoor dining.
Two completely different questions.
However, if one of the requirements for making outdoor dining safe is to wear masks, I don't see how it can be made safe, since as far as I know people can't eat or drink with masks on.
Furthermore, at least in my own informal witnessing of people dining outdoors, the norm is for people to socialize at tables without masks, with only a couple of feet between them. I wouldn't call that social distancing either.
That's two strikes against outdoor dining: lack of masks and lack of social distancing.
I'd love to have asked that UCSF expert what she had to say about this.
Something else to consider is that restaurants aren't only doing poorly because they're being locked down, but even when they're open many people are choosing (very sensibly, from my perspective) to avoid them. That won't be fixed by ending lockdowns.
Anyway, I'm still waiting to hear someone tell me how many lives would be saved by allowing restaurants to open. Is it going to be anywhere near 3,000 in a single day? Somehow I very much doubt it.
I did answer the question you asked. The answer for "how many lives would be saved" and "how many lives would be lost" if outdoor dining is/isn't banned is the same; approximately zero based on the evidence. You also have to consider that even if all restaurant dining is banned, that doesn't mean people are suddenly going to stop eating together, they'll just do it elsewhere, somewhere that's probably much riskier than an outdoor patio such as a car or inside someone's house.
>I don't see how it can be made safe, since as far as I know people can't eat or drink with masks on.
Clearly the principles of harm reduction discussed in the article account for patrons eating without a mask on while they are seated at a table, but I suspect you already knew that.
>I'd love to have asked that UCSF expert what she had to say about this.
I'd love to hear what she would have to say as well. Though seeing as she has a long career studying infectious diseases and has studied covid extensively over the past year, I'm inclined to think she has a good understanding of the risks involved in certain activities, certainly beyond the anecdotal evidence of commenters on HN.
>I'm still waiting to hear someone tell me how many lives would be saved by allowing restaurants to open. Is it going to be anywhere near 3,000 in a single day? Somehow I very much doubt it.
I'm not sure why you're waiting for this answer. The number of deaths in a day(3000) is unrelated to restaurants allowing outdoor dining, so why are you comparing them? Closing restaurants will not bring that number down, based on the science we have available, but if you have evidence that suggests otherwise feel free to share.
>I don't see how it can be made safe, since as far as I know people can't eat or drink with masks on.
Clearly the principles of harm reduction discussed in the article account for patrons eating without a mask on while they are seated at a table, but I suspect you already knew that.
>I'd love to have asked that UCSF expert what she had to say about this.
I'd love to hear what she would have to say as well. Though seeing as she has a long career studying infectious diseases and has studied covid extensively over the past year, I'm inclined to think she has a good understanding of the risks involved in certain activities, certainly beyond the anecdotal evidence of commenters on HN.
>I'm still waiting to hear someone tell me how many lives would be saved by allowing restaurants to open. Is it going to be anywhere near 3,000 in a single day? Somehow I very much doubt it.
I'm not sure why you're waiting for this answer. The number of deaths in a day(3000) is unrelated to restaurants allowing outdoor dining, so why are you comparing them? Closing restaurants will not bring that number down, based on the science we have available, but if you have evidence that suggests otherwise feel free to share.
You're here to save lives. Great. Do you want to start by banning all alcohol consumption, ban unprotected sex, or by making private vehicle ownership illegal?
Banning abortion saves lives too. Also motorcycles.
> ...but even when they're open many people are choosing (very sensibly, from my perspective) to avoid them
We should just open them then if nobody is going to go to them. In one breath you say we need to restrict them and in the other breath you say nobody will go. "I don't like to go there any more, it's too crowded" -- Yogi Berra
Another amazing feat of physics - like masks. When Covid cases go up it's because people aren't wearing masks. When the CDC and other international organizations record near-zero flu deaths for the year 2020 it's due to mask usage.
Somehow both things are happening at the same time.
Banning abortion saves lives too. Also motorcycles.
> ...but even when they're open many people are choosing (very sensibly, from my perspective) to avoid them
We should just open them then if nobody is going to go to them. In one breath you say we need to restrict them and in the other breath you say nobody will go. "I don't like to go there any more, it's too crowded" -- Yogi Berra
Another amazing feat of physics - like masks. When Covid cases go up it's because people aren't wearing masks. When the CDC and other international organizations record near-zero flu deaths for the year 2020 it's due to mask usage.
Somehow both things are happening at the same time.
"You're here to save lives. Great. Do you want to start by banning all alcohol consumption, ban unprotected sex, or by making private vehicle ownership illegal? Banning abortion saves lives too. Also motorcycles."
Except for banning abortion, none of those things has a chance of actually being made illegal any time soon, so no use talking about any of them. And I don't think getting in to an argument about abortion in this thread would be productive.
Let's see what else you've got...
"We should just open them then if nobody is going to go to them. In one breath you say we need to restrict them and in the other breath you say nobody will go."
Except some highly inconsiderate, ignorant, and/or stupid people are still going. It's those we have to worry about. So I'd vote to keep them closed.
"Another amazing feat of physics - like masks. When Covid cases go up it's because people aren't wearing masks. When the CDC and other international organizations record near-zero flu deaths for the year 2020 it's due to mask usage."
You know, it could be both? Because the flu might not be as contagious, and there are other measures being used as well, like increased hand washing, which might be more effective for preventing the flu than preventing COVID-19. And even if all the measures are equally effective, there just might not be as much flu going around this year. Anyway, the fact that flu deaths are also going down, probably due to some of the lockdown, mask, and distancing measures is is even more reason to continue them.
Except for banning abortion, none of those things has a chance of actually being made illegal any time soon, so no use talking about any of them. And I don't think getting in to an argument about abortion in this thread would be productive.
Let's see what else you've got...
"We should just open them then if nobody is going to go to them. In one breath you say we need to restrict them and in the other breath you say nobody will go."
Except some highly inconsiderate, ignorant, and/or stupid people are still going. It's those we have to worry about. So I'd vote to keep them closed.
"Another amazing feat of physics - like masks. When Covid cases go up it's because people aren't wearing masks. When the CDC and other international organizations record near-zero flu deaths for the year 2020 it's due to mask usage."
You know, it could be both? Because the flu might not be as contagious, and there are other measures being used as well, like increased hand washing, which might be more effective for preventing the flu than preventing COVID-19. And even if all the measures are equally effective, there just might not be as much flu going around this year. Anyway, the fact that flu deaths are also going down, probably due to some of the lockdown, mask, and distancing measures is is even more reason to continue them.
If you look at the plots of the data sources from the meta-survey of literature that is [0] you'll notice the IFR positively correlated with high population and infrastructure. These places get a better idea of the actual IFR and are diluted out by places that falsify data (China) and aren't capable of taking real population level data (smaller and undeveloped countries).
The first part of the paper is justifying this choice as to not dilute out the measurements from the small regions. I guess if you hang a lampshade on it like that it almost makes sense this paper was approved. But it's easily misinterpreted.
The first part of the paper is justifying this choice as to not dilute out the measurements from the small regions. I guess if you hang a lampshade on it like that it almost makes sense this paper was approved. But it's easily misinterpreted.
Actions could have been taken, and the cost of those actions could be much lower. It's because we keep comparing those numbers that we forget what really matters. The only reason economy matter is because people matter.
Even if those restaurants would be having a difficult time, or even close their businesses. I don't think those people work there would just die. Unlike those "high-risk individuals" you just so causality decide don't matter.
It is ridiculous.
Even if those restaurants would be having a difficult time, or even close their businesses. I don't think those people work there would just die. Unlike those "high-risk individuals" you just so causality decide don't matter.
It is ridiculous.
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1. Isolating just those above 70 is both cruel and impossible. The old and vulnerable need significant amounts of care.
2. 0.05% of hundreds of millions is still a lot of people. (And the number is far higher than that because it's impossible to isolate the >70)
3. the entire economy isn't shut down, far from it. At this point, it's on the order of a 5% hit. The pain is unevenly spread. A competent government would spread the burden.
4. If you were immuno-compromised, would you want your food delivered by the people traveling through multiple busy dining rooms?
5. Vaccines are just weeks away for the vulnerable, and mass vaccination a few months. The virus is spreading quickly, so just a little bit more isolation for a little bit longer will save hundreds of thousands of lives. Saving hundreds of thousands of lives might not be worth it if we had to shut down for years, but if shutting down for a couple months can save that many, it seems much more reasonable.
6. Your 0.05% figure assumes that hospitals and staff aren't overwhelmed. The figure increases dramatically when they are.
2. 0.05% of hundreds of millions is still a lot of people. (And the number is far higher than that because it's impossible to isolate the >70)
3. the entire economy isn't shut down, far from it. At this point, it's on the order of a 5% hit. The pain is unevenly spread. A competent government would spread the burden.
4. If you were immuno-compromised, would you want your food delivered by the people traveling through multiple busy dining rooms?
5. Vaccines are just weeks away for the vulnerable, and mass vaccination a few months. The virus is spreading quickly, so just a little bit more isolation for a little bit longer will save hundreds of thousands of lives. Saving hundreds of thousands of lives might not be worth it if we had to shut down for years, but if shutting down for a couple months can save that many, it seems much more reasonable.
6. Your 0.05% figure assumes that hospitals and staff aren't overwhelmed. The figure increases dramatically when they are.
This shouldn't be a choice between risking continued transmission of a pandemic disease and letting small businesses fail. The US collectively produces way more than enough to keep them afloat until the end of the pandemic; the only reason for the dichotomy is Congress's failure to pass enough aid funding to provide that support. As far as I'm concerned, congressional Republicans - and in turn, everyone who voted for them - are ultimately responsible for the failure of every small business that shutters due to the pandemic, due to their absurd insistence on legal indemnity for employers whose employees get COVID due to unsafe working environments.
To be clear, as a lot of other commenters have pointed out, it doesn't seem to be well established how risky activities like outdoor dining are. If it were a question of whether it were worth an additional $X billion in aid to prevent that risk, great, that's a conversation that's worth having. But you can't have that kind of meaningful conversation starting from an ultimatum, as we are today.
To be clear, as a lot of other commenters have pointed out, it doesn't seem to be well established how risky activities like outdoor dining are. If it were a question of whether it were worth an additional $X billion in aid to prevent that risk, great, that's a conversation that's worth having. But you can't have that kind of meaningful conversation starting from an ultimatum, as we are today.
The fault is not with Congress. The federal government hasn't forced any businesses to close. All of the lockdown measures have been imposed by state and local governments so they are the ones that should subsidize impacted businesses.
The Florida state government allows restaurants in that state to remain open so why should Floridians pay to keep California restaurants running? There's nothing stopping the California legislature from raising taxes on the wealthy to fund pandemic relief in our state.
The Florida state government allows restaurants in that state to remain open so why should Floridians pay to keep California restaurants running? There's nothing stopping the California legislature from raising taxes on the wealthy to fund pandemic relief in our state.
State-level funding sounds good on paper but would work poorly in practice because the federal government benefits from its sovereignty in ways that state governments don't. The vast majority of Americans' tax revenue goes to the federal government, not to state or local governments, even in wealthy, high-tax states like California. And state governments, unlike the federal government, don't have access to effectively unlimited borrowing capacity at <2% interest. Also, California can't shut down its border to Floridians - or prevent Californians from traveling to Florida and then returning - to stop the virus from being carried from Florida to California.
I think the people who keep pushing on "freedom to choose" and what not do not understand human nature, as if these laws are the only thing stopping restaurants from enjoying economic success. I know business owners want to peg their hopes on that.
Look at other countries where everything is nearly completely open. Dining, theaters, etc are still down revenue wise. There will be ebbs and flows were people get sick of staying in and COVID fatigued and go dine out, then as cases or hospitalizations rise they naturally self distance or stay in.
A restaurant might be able to survive that, but it's punishing and I'm willing to bet most won't. You can't just stop and start a restaurant on a whim. Look at NYC where Broadway made a pre-emptive decision to shut down until May of next year because of crap like that.
I guess leave it up to us Americans to fly in the face of common sense, though.
Look at other countries where everything is nearly completely open. Dining, theaters, etc are still down revenue wise. There will be ebbs and flows were people get sick of staying in and COVID fatigued and go dine out, then as cases or hospitalizations rise they naturally self distance or stay in.
A restaurant might be able to survive that, but it's punishing and I'm willing to bet most won't. You can't just stop and start a restaurant on a whim. Look at NYC where Broadway made a pre-emptive decision to shut down until May of next year because of crap like that.
I guess leave it up to us Americans to fly in the face of common sense, though.
What is missing is the number of agricultural workers who are being disproportionately affected. They still have to work as essential workers.
It is not so much as masking protocols or social distancing. They car pool or the labour contractor picks them up in a van to take them to the fields. Many live in groups with 2-4 people to a room.
This is reality. Outside the tech bubble. This is why I am disappointed that Agtech and tech sector has done NOTHING to help the most vulnerable. It’s just faffing around, harvesting data and twirling three times after chanting ‘blockchain..blockchain..blockchain’ in agtech. If any, it’s for commodity crops like soy or corn harvested once a year and turned into fodder sludge or ethanol.
But farms that grow food have laborers working there every day. This is surreal and I am beyond heartbroken that nothing is being done to alleviate the problem that is most dangerous.
I posted this elsewhere: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25320797
It is not so much as masking protocols or social distancing. They car pool or the labour contractor picks them up in a van to take them to the fields. Many live in groups with 2-4 people to a room.
This is reality. Outside the tech bubble. This is why I am disappointed that Agtech and tech sector has done NOTHING to help the most vulnerable. It’s just faffing around, harvesting data and twirling three times after chanting ‘blockchain..blockchain..blockchain’ in agtech. If any, it’s for commodity crops like soy or corn harvested once a year and turned into fodder sludge or ethanol.
But farms that grow food have laborers working there every day. This is surreal and I am beyond heartbroken that nothing is being done to alleviate the problem that is most dangerous.
I posted this elsewhere: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25320797
Try living in Minneapolis, where outdoor seating is only practical for 6 months of the year - if that. I do feel sorry for restaurants everywhere though, and all the other myriad businesses wiped out by COVID.
It feels like we are living through a second Great Depression. A number of my favorite San Francisco businesses have permanently closed and it's an incredibly sad time to live through such a thing.
This is a small list of a few of my personal favorite places that are gone:
This is a small list of a few of my personal favorite places that are gone:
* The San Francisco Hound Lounge
* Walzwerk East German Restaurant
* Old Jerusalem Restaurant
* Lucky 13
Things that are contagious and invisible cause people to act like lunatics. On top of that, the enforcers are hypocritical. What a mess.
See https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1335016414315307009
See https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1335016414315307009
Note that a judge recently blocked LA County from banning outdoor dining without evidence: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-02/covid-19...
I can’t help but think that a lot of people have been whipped up into an irrational level of panic, and they’re unable to navigate the risk benefit tradeoffs calmly. Add to that the politicization of this issue, and people have become very set in their stance of being pro lockdown versus against lockdown. This has led to them expecting authoritarian mandates from politicians to help them not feel so panicked.
The politicians themselves feel they have to issue the mandates this cohort expects even though they don’t believe in those mandates themselves. This is why so many politicians have been caught violating their own rules (https://thefederalist.com/2020/12/03/rules-for-thee-but-not-...) - it’s not that they think they’re above the rules (although it plays a part) as much as the fact that they don’t believe in them.
The reality is that life comes with risks. We will never face zero risks. We still need to go about with our lives and retain the freedom to make our own choices and evaluations of which risks we are willing to accept. Arbitrary actions like banning outdoor dining are a step too far.
I can’t help but think that a lot of people have been whipped up into an irrational level of panic, and they’re unable to navigate the risk benefit tradeoffs calmly. Add to that the politicization of this issue, and people have become very set in their stance of being pro lockdown versus against lockdown. This has led to them expecting authoritarian mandates from politicians to help them not feel so panicked.
The politicians themselves feel they have to issue the mandates this cohort expects even though they don’t believe in those mandates themselves. This is why so many politicians have been caught violating their own rules (https://thefederalist.com/2020/12/03/rules-for-thee-but-not-...) - it’s not that they think they’re above the rules (although it plays a part) as much as the fact that they don’t believe in them.
The reality is that life comes with risks. We will never face zero risks. We still need to go about with our lives and retain the freedom to make our own choices and evaluations of which risks we are willing to accept. Arbitrary actions like banning outdoor dining are a step too far.
The downvotes on this are proof that people don’t want to navigate the benefit trade offs.
I just feel sad. Sad for people who have died from this. Sad for their loved ones. Sad for small business. Sad for people who were already struggling. Sad for my own children. This is just awful no matter how you slice it. We’ve got to acknowledge that we only have awful outcomes to pick from. We just disagree on which outcome is less awful and I’m sad that we can’t even do that.
I just feel sad. Sad for people who have died from this. Sad for their loved ones. Sad for small business. Sad for people who were already struggling. Sad for my own children. This is just awful no matter how you slice it. We’ve got to acknowledge that we only have awful outcomes to pick from. We just disagree on which outcome is less awful and I’m sad that we can’t even do that.
Just so sad to see it go. Restaurants make a city. They're critical to its culture and the lifestyle of those who live there.
I don't know that this is the right or wrong decision, but it's just awful that this is happening, and we need to acknowledge how fucking terribly this has been handled.