The great bicycle boom of 2020(bbc.com)
bbc.com
The great bicycle boom of 2020
https://www.bbc.com/future/bespoke/made-on-earth/the-great-bicycle-boom-of-2020.html
153 comments
I'm an avid biker, and commute by bike all year around even in harsh nordic winter climate. But my numbers for 2020 are faaar lower than usual. Normally I would bike to and from work 5 times a week, to swimming 3 times a week, to meet a friend for jogging, to the mall, etc. But now all those things are closed, so I use the bike for something maybe once a week instead.
So I hope and believe the numbers will be even greater for 20211, actually. Multiple new people with bikes, and soon people will move about as usual.
So I hope and believe the numbers will be even greater for 20211, actually. Multiple new people with bikes, and soon people will move about as usual.
I'm with you. One thing I try to do to combat that is to "commute to my bedroom office via the garage" --> I go for a short loop ride in the morning that replicates my commute length.
I find that it really helps my energy levels and mental state in the same way my commute used to. Obviously, it takes a bit more discipline, but I actually look forward to it - a chance to check in on the neighborhood etc.
Another hint is it do something new on the route every day. It has grown to be quite a mental challenge to figure out a street or alley (or way of hooking things up) that I haven't taken before!
I find that it really helps my energy levels and mental state in the same way my commute used to. Obviously, it takes a bit more discipline, but I actually look forward to it - a chance to check in on the neighborhood etc.
Another hint is it do something new on the route every day. It has grown to be quite a mental challenge to figure out a street or alley (or way of hooking things up) that I haven't taken before!
Interesting enough, my "commute" is now walking the dog around the area, starting in the kitchen ( or whereever the dog - a 2 year husky!, is waiting for me ) and ending up in the office "room". The fresh air and the 20-35 mins walk is really ideal to kick start my brain for the work. Ideally the walk is without the phone, this helps me to really disconnect.
I have heard this called a faux-mute, catchy name
I do something similar, sometimes even riding to work and back without ever going inside.
this is a great idea! i really miss my bike commute.
My experience echoes yours. I love biking to work, especially with an e-bike, and I normally did it five days a week, I even started blogging about my experiences[1]. With the right gear, cycling is really practical form of transport for me to completely avoid unnecessary covid risks on public transport.
Now with lockdowns, I'm not biking nearly as much, the weekly five-a-side football is closed, there's nothing open, so little motivation to walk around town, and so on.
[1] https://ampedcycling.com/is-an-e-bike-actually-worth-it/
Now with lockdowns, I'm not biking nearly as much, the weekly five-a-side football is closed, there's nothing open, so little motivation to walk around town, and so on.
[1] https://ampedcycling.com/is-an-e-bike-actually-worth-it/
It's not hard to imagine a situation where normally avid/active cyclist are taking fewer trips (since they aren't going to an office 5 days a week or whatever) but this loss is dwarfed by normally occasional non-cycling people taking more trips than average.
The latter group is likely two orders of magnitude larger than the former, so the interesting thing will be if some people become "converts" as it were, when the restrictions are released. I can see arguments both for and against.
It would be interesting to see an analysis of this in a couple of years, but comparing areas of long term disruption (e.g. USA) vs. shorter (e.g. New Zealand) but that also has all the usual problems of comparison.
The latter group is likely two orders of magnitude larger than the former, so the interesting thing will be if some people become "converts" as it were, when the restrictions are released. I can see arguments both for and against.
It would be interesting to see an analysis of this in a couple of years, but comparing areas of long term disruption (e.g. USA) vs. shorter (e.g. New Zealand) but that also has all the usual problems of comparison.
Similar situation here. I live in NYC and commuted year-round to work via bicycle for 5 years straight ... and then COVID happened, I haven't even been allowed into the office in 9 months, and my bicycling activity has correspondingly plummeted off a cliff. I now do most of my biking on weekends (for errands and such), which was far from true before March.
So, it's amazing how much the cycling numbers here have gone up even with people like me staying home. I'm looking forward to seeing how many people are cycling once it's all over. Will people like me going back to cycling be added on top of all the others who switched from subway to cycling, or will they go back to subway?
So, it's amazing how much the cycling numbers here have gone up even with people like me staying home. I'm looking forward to seeing how many people are cycling once it's all over. Will people like me going back to cycling be added on top of all the others who switched from subway to cycling, or will they go back to subway?
I did the exact opposite as you. I was a commuter biker before Covid and then once that stopped, I got Strava and took my bike all over the five boroughs. I was biking 100 miles a week until December when it got a little too cold for me. I added a gravel bike to my collection and took that out of the city on weekends. 2020 was the year of the bike!
I've just been doing lots of running instead as exercise. I don't actually enjoy a lot of the biking in the city that much. It's too often too crowded and/or feels just a little bit unsafe because of driver misbehavior. I've done the whole 100 km ride up to Nyack and back on 9W thing and ... those cars man.
Biking in the city is its own beast - no bones about that.
I started up the old Turf app [1] for having some goal while biking. It's a great way of finding new routes you haven't seen before. Perfect for a short lunch-ride or in the night after the kids are in bed. It's a bit low on zones in the rest of the world but the nordic countries have a lot. England recently got an upswing too so getting new zones the whole time. And if you wish for zones or leave the app running over the night, someone will notice you and add zones for you.
Ofcourse there are some crazy competing going on too [2]. I'm not quite there yet...
[1] https://turfgame.com/
[2] https://turfvasterbotten.wordpress.com/2020/11/11/eat-sleep-...
[1] https://turfgame.com/
[2] https://turfvasterbotten.wordpress.com/2020/11/11/eat-sleep-...
I read somewhere about the idea of a "fake commute" where you go for a ride of equivalent duration every day. I did that for a while, but have switched to taking a long walk every morning. I've gotten the winter bike out, but have barely used it this year.
I have to second that this is exactly my situation as well. Since my elementary school years some two decades ago, I don't think I ever cycled so little in one year as in 2020. Bicycle is my #1 transport but due to forced remote work and generally low level of activity outside home I haven't had the need to go much anywhere. (I won't even begin with the massively detrimental effects on my fitness level.)
That being said, I sincerely hope people who took up cycling during the pandemic will continue to do so 2021+ forward. More cyclists = more planning focus on cycling = better & safer cycling infrastructure.
That being said, I sincerely hope people who took up cycling during the pandemic will continue to do so 2021+ forward. More cyclists = more planning focus on cycling = better & safer cycling infrastructure.
Same here. But I've seen a ton of people on bikes this summer, and by the looks of it a lot of them were new riders. Bike stores were cleared out of inventory, and bike shops / coops overloaded with customers. There's been a definite surge in cycling where I live.
Similar here. I slacked for a while but when my fitness started slipping made an effort to get out almost daily just for a spin. Not training, just decompressing and stretching the legs so when the weekend comes my buddies don't kill me out out mountain bike ride.
same situation. my commuter bike has been hanging on the wall since March. moving more into weekend, MTB rides with my family. i find it very hard to get motivated to just ride a loop for exercise. the utility of commuting into work really motivated me for some reason.
> It's also a good datapoint to counter concerns about the weather.
That statistic only observes a change in behaviour. It doesn't explain why it changed.
So, I think that claim can/should be falsified:
If there's an increase in bike usage, that's not because people feel the weather - in it's own regard - is less of an impediment to prefer biking over public transport. It's because people choose enduring changing weather conditions over accepting serious risk to their health for the sake of convenience.
> It's interesting that there's an effect going on here that's somewhat close to a Giffen good
According to Wikipedia [1]
> There are three necessary preconditions for this situation to arise:[citation needed] > the good in question must be an inferior good, > there must be a lack of close substitute goods, and > the goods must constitute a substantial percentage of the buyer's income, but not such > a substantial percentage of the buyer's income that none of the associated normal > goods are consumed.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good
So, if the only other close alternate to bicycling was public transportation, and other options (car) are because their costs outweigh the benefits, then biking would be a Giffen good.
This can be explained either because the perceived costs of the alternative - public transportation - became prohibitively expensive in terms of an increased health risk and the potentially associated costs that come with that risk (death, disabilities, healthcare costs, income loss,...). Or because people are now more willing to accept changing weather conditions (per your claim).
Of course the only way to confirm this is to actually do a survey and gauge the motivations that prompted a population to change their behaviour.
As an anecdotal aside: I was a heavy user of public transportation. I switched to going on foot, or taking my bike to get around exactly because of the pandemic.
That statistic only observes a change in behaviour. It doesn't explain why it changed.
So, I think that claim can/should be falsified:
If there's an increase in bike usage, that's not because people feel the weather - in it's own regard - is less of an impediment to prefer biking over public transport. It's because people choose enduring changing weather conditions over accepting serious risk to their health for the sake of convenience.
> It's interesting that there's an effect going on here that's somewhat close to a Giffen good
According to Wikipedia [1]
> There are three necessary preconditions for this situation to arise:[citation needed] > the good in question must be an inferior good, > there must be a lack of close substitute goods, and > the goods must constitute a substantial percentage of the buyer's income, but not such > a substantial percentage of the buyer's income that none of the associated normal > goods are consumed.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good
So, if the only other close alternate to bicycling was public transportation, and other options (car) are because their costs outweigh the benefits, then biking would be a Giffen good.
This can be explained either because the perceived costs of the alternative - public transportation - became prohibitively expensive in terms of an increased health risk and the potentially associated costs that come with that risk (death, disabilities, healthcare costs, income loss,...). Or because people are now more willing to accept changing weather conditions (per your claim).
Of course the only way to confirm this is to actually do a survey and gauge the motivations that prompted a population to change their behaviour.
As an anecdotal aside: I was a heavy user of public transportation. I switched to going on foot, or taking my bike to get around exactly because of the pandemic.
As to weather, I was commenting on the relative number between summer and winter. In both years, they hold up better than I would have thought, at around 50%. That would fit with, for example, commuters using the bike year-round, with the other half in summer consisting of tourism, generally increased activity, joyrides, etc.
As to Giffen: people are shifting public transport -> car & bike. The "budget" (road capacity) is fixed and close to full utilisation. Increased demand with inelastic supply results "inflation", which is the somewhat convoluted way the income effect comes about. Aaaand... yeah, I can't quite remember how I made the next part fit. so you may be right.
As to Giffen: people are shifting public transport -> car & bike. The "budget" (road capacity) is fixed and close to full utilisation. Increased demand with inelastic supply results "inflation", which is the somewhat convoluted way the income effect comes about. Aaaand... yeah, I can't quite remember how I made the next part fit. so you may be right.
General mobility in Berlin 2020 compared to 2019 [0] according to Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in:
Sep -5 % to -13 %
Dec -20 % to -41 % [incomplete data]
Up until early September the weather was quite warm and the COVID rates were low. Both were not the case in December.
It'd be interesting to see the corresponding public transit numbers. In the US, I'm not optimistic about a bike revolution lasting past covid. We've seen some new bike infra being deployed in Boston but not much more than we'd be getting anyway.
When you say car traffic, I presume congestion and not volume of cars. I'm sure volume is down overall and I recall from discussions about congestion pricing, even a 10% decrease in volume can result in congestion completely dissipating. In normal times, Induced Demand would lead to volume going back up as transit users convert back to cars.
When you say car traffic, I presume congestion and not volume of cars. I'm sure volume is down overall and I recall from discussions about congestion pricing, even a 10% decrease in volume can result in congestion completely dissipating. In normal times, Induced Demand would lead to volume going back up as transit users convert back to cars.
Most US Public Transportation agencies publish their KPIs.
DFW Metro: https://dart.org/about/dartkpi.asp
DFW Metro: https://dart.org/about/dartkpi.asp
I'm hoping that some of the pop-up bike lanes we had around the city during the summer due to the lockdown will either return this year or drive some decision making around bike infrastructure in the city, although it always seems too little to late and to move so slowly. With an increase in cyclists last year we also sadly had an increase in cyclist deaths.
Probably because people avoided public transport (busses and trams) you need to see this data as well.
Contrary to what people might think, 2020 has not been a good year for bike dealers, especially small ones. The demand was huge, but due to side-effects of the corona pandemic, bike production in Asia was running on at most 80% capacity. Some assembly lines were stopped for several weeks, and distancing rules means reduced throughput. The problem: all orders with the big manufacturers are placed a year in advance. This means that if you were too late to place your orders in 2020, you will not get any inventory for 2021. Any by "too late" I mean "the same time as in 2019".
People want to buy, but stock is depleted and production reduced, and many small dealers won't survive 2021 for lack of inventory.
People want to buy, but stock is depleted and production reduced, and many small dealers won't survive 2021 for lack of inventory.
Former bike dealer here (I've written about it briefly for anyone who might by be interested: http://www.sciencerocketry.com/blog/great-work-and-new-begin...). You are correct that dealers have been unable to capitalize on the boom to realize big profits. There's plenty of service business but the labor part isn't really profitable (in my experience). The ability to sell parts with service can be profitable, but the distributors and manufacturers don't have any parts to sell.
One positive is that those dealers drowning in older, unsold stock have been able to turn a lot of that into cash. That's allowed a few of them to restore some financial health to their business and get out from under some of their debt to vendors and other creditors.
But even so, the bike business is so commoditized and the supply chain is so lose that bike shops (and manufacturers as well) have a pretty low ceiling of profitability. Even in the midst of a boom, the economics of the bike business restrict it to a lifestyle business at best. For some shops, this (likely temporary) boom probably presents the best window of opportunity to close their doors.
One positive is that those dealers drowning in older, unsold stock have been able to turn a lot of that into cash. That's allowed a few of them to restore some financial health to their business and get out from under some of their debt to vendors and other creditors.
But even so, the bike business is so commoditized and the supply chain is so lose that bike shops (and manufacturers as well) have a pretty low ceiling of profitability. Even in the midst of a boom, the economics of the bike business restrict it to a lifestyle business at best. For some shops, this (likely temporary) boom probably presents the best window of opportunity to close their doors.
Bike shops absolutely need to turn themselves into workshops, in other words increase hourly rates until repairs become a worthwhile business on their own. Even if only because internet.
The idea "I could do some bike work on my own, so bike work can't be expensive" has to die, simple as that. People can pop open a beer at home just fine, nobody expects bars to sell beer at a similar price.
If shops insist on offering workshop services at a loss for bikes bought at the establishment, they are free to offer huge rebates as a hardware sales argument.
The idea "I could do some bike work on my own, so bike work can't be expensive" has to die, simple as that. People can pop open a beer at home just fine, nobody expects bars to sell beer at a similar price.
If shops insist on offering workshop services at a loss for bikes bought at the establishment, they are free to offer huge rebates as a hardware sales argument.
There is a value add from going to a bar. I'm paying for the social experience.
A local bike shop repair has two benefits over doing it myself - experience and convenience.
Unfortunately for bike shops the people who are most in need of their experience are those who are newer to riding (or dusting off a 20 year old unridden bike). When the workshop labour charge is approaching the perceived worth of a bike the customer is not going to want to use those services (more likely to dump the bike and buy a new one from a sporting goods store or Walmart).
People who ride regularly are more likely to have bikes where the cost of a repair is a small fraction of the bike's worth (personal or actual) but they are also more likely to have the tools and experience to do the work themselves.
I go back into mtb riding 2 years ago and upgraded to a mid-range full suspension bike at the end of 2019. While I was familiar with basic bike maintenance I didn't know what I was doing with some of the newer bike tech. When my bike needed a service in the summer I tried to use my local bike store - they needed my bike for a month in order to get the work done (backed up due to Covid demand).
Rather than miss all those rides I bought the tools and figured how to do the jobs myself. Now I have the tools I can do those jobs again for almost no outlay (and wrenching is therapeutic).
A local bike shop repair has two benefits over doing it myself - experience and convenience.
Unfortunately for bike shops the people who are most in need of their experience are those who are newer to riding (or dusting off a 20 year old unridden bike). When the workshop labour charge is approaching the perceived worth of a bike the customer is not going to want to use those services (more likely to dump the bike and buy a new one from a sporting goods store or Walmart).
People who ride regularly are more likely to have bikes where the cost of a repair is a small fraction of the bike's worth (personal or actual) but they are also more likely to have the tools and experience to do the work themselves.
I go back into mtb riding 2 years ago and upgraded to a mid-range full suspension bike at the end of 2019. While I was familiar with basic bike maintenance I didn't know what I was doing with some of the newer bike tech. When my bike needed a service in the summer I tried to use my local bike store - they needed my bike for a month in order to get the work done (backed up due to Covid demand).
Rather than miss all those rides I bought the tools and figured how to do the jobs myself. Now I have the tools I can do those jobs again for almost no outlay (and wrenching is therapeutic).
I do a lot of my own bike repairs. When I take it to the local shop, they can fix it better than I can. When it's slow my local shop will show me how to do some tips on some of the different repairs. I replaced all the cables and shifters on my bike and I had a hard time getting the derailleur adjustments correct.
I had to replace some spokes, that would have taken me a while to do on my own and some specialized equipment I won't need again for a decade.
I had to replace some spokes, that would have taken me a while to do on my own and some specialized equipment I won't need again for a decade.
Lol yeah, I tried building my own wheel, and getting it true was such an art that I ended up writing my thesis about bicycle spokes...
> The idea "I could do some bike work on my own, so bike work can't be expensive" has to die, simple as that. People can pop open a beer at home just fine, nobody expects bars to sell beer at a similar price.
In the town I used to live in, Performance bought out the only decent bike shop in town so I got into the habit of buying online because I could wrench better than the Performance mechanics. When I moved up to Oregon there are 5 good bike shops here in town and they all charge reasonable rates so I use them whenever possible.
I do still buy online and install parts myself, not to save a buck, but because it's more convenient than taking my bike into the shop and leaving it there for a few days.
In the town I used to live in, Performance bought out the only decent bike shop in town so I got into the habit of buying online because I could wrench better than the Performance mechanics. When I moved up to Oregon there are 5 good bike shops here in town and they all charge reasonable rates so I use them whenever possible.
I do still buy online and install parts myself, not to save a buck, but because it's more convenient than taking my bike into the shop and leaving it there for a few days.
> The idea "I could do some bike work on my own, so bike work can't be expensive" has to die, simple as that.
If the shop charges more than I value my time, than I won't go to the shop except to buy parts and tools to fix my bike with. Not sure why you think DIY needs to die. This is a supply/demand problem and ease of repair will depress prices.
Where the workshop model might work is the fabrication of parts. The supply chain has tanked; I'd be willing to pay double on that chainring I busted and nobody can stock.
If the shop charges more than I value my time, than I won't go to the shop except to buy parts and tools to fix my bike with. Not sure why you think DIY needs to die. This is a supply/demand problem and ease of repair will depress prices.
Where the workshop model might work is the fabrication of parts. The supply chain has tanked; I'd be willing to pay double on that chainring I busted and nobody can stock.
Some in the bike industry have been asking for that very thing for years. The most common answer is, "you first".
I really don't get what they would be missing though: "foreign" (e.g. internet) brands would usually be rejected before that price hike anyways (unless workshop capacity is desperately idle) and preferred customers (qualified by bike purchase) could still be offered arbitrary service discounts. Is it really just the old bait and switch of offering to service a clunker for the price of a hamburger and then suddenly realizing that the bike is impossible to salvage if the customer happens to be not utterly wrong size for that unloved bike that has been clogging inventory for three years?
No bait and switch, and my experiences aren't from the boom period so take my commentary with a grain of salt. What I can tell you is that there is an immense amount of pressure from competitors and from customers to keep service prices low. So the prospect of raising service prices is challenging when your customers are spoiled with cheap labor.
Also, servicing a lower-end bike ends up meaning the service is a large percentage of the original cost. So the prospect of paying, say, $150 for a tune-up, cables, and a new chain on a $400 bike feels excessive. But if you do it for any cheaper than that, you are either compromising the quality of your work or compromising your ability to turn a profit.
Also, servicing a lower-end bike ends up meaning the service is a large percentage of the original cost. So the prospect of paying, say, $150 for a tune-up, cables, and a new chain on a $400 bike feels excessive. But if you do it for any cheaper than that, you are either compromising the quality of your work or compromising your ability to turn a profit.
Sure, a "boutique bike service station" certainly wouldn't attract your typical Wal-Mart bike owner. But those bikes won't be served by the bike shop that runs the workshop at a loss for his loyal bike buyers either.
That part of the market is usually served, quite well actually for both sides, by a shop that is one third preowned bikes, one third budget parts and one third highschool job repairs (sometimes they also rent out the preowned). Lifesavers for my theft-immune three speed (they'll happily take on daring salvage operations nobidy else would even attempt), but I surely no place were I'd leave one of my Campag steeds even for just a tire inflation.
That part of the market is usually served, quite well actually for both sides, by a shop that is one third preowned bikes, one third budget parts and one third highschool job repairs (sometimes they also rent out the preowned). Lifesavers for my theft-immune three speed (they'll happily take on daring salvage operations nobidy else would even attempt), but I surely no place were I'd leave one of my Campag steeds even for just a tire inflation.
You know On Licenses ( Pubs/Bars) pay massive amounts of tax compared to Off Licences (Supermarkets / Bodgegas)
I see that you're from the US, I know that in many places in Europe and Australia, the workshop has become the most profitable part of the shops. In fact in Australia I know of several workshop only bike "shops", essentially with the raise of online sales lots of people just need their bikes fixed.
I find it interesting though that you say the bike business is commoditized. In particular there are several bike manufacturers who have transitioned into live-style brands (the big one being specialized). Their prices have gone through the roof, while their manufacturing is all outsourced to cheapest bidders in China. It's now common for top of the line race bikes to cost >$10,000 while the frames for the bikes cost them ~$300 shipped to the US (and the total bike might be on the order of $1000-$2000 max). Mind you nothing of that ends up with the dealers.
I find it interesting though that you say the bike business is commoditized. In particular there are several bike manufacturers who have transitioned into live-style brands (the big one being specialized). Their prices have gone through the roof, while their manufacturing is all outsourced to cheapest bidders in China. It's now common for top of the line race bikes to cost >$10,000 while the frames for the bikes cost them ~$300 shipped to the US (and the total bike might be on the order of $1000-$2000 max). Mind you nothing of that ends up with the dealers.
> Mind you nothing of that ends up with the dealers.
Not true, the very expensive bikes definitely have better margins.
Not true, the very expensive bikes definitely have better margins.
Ok interesting, this might be different in different countries again.
What I heard from friends of mine is that the margins are not really any better on high-end bikes. Because you sell significantly less of those it used to be that it was much easier to make decent money on low end bikes (i.e. everyday bikes used for riding around town). I think things changed a bit with the popularity of e-bikes now (they are generally more expensive but also much more in demand, don't know about the margins exactly).
What I heard from friends of mine is that the margins are not really any better on high-end bikes. Because you sell significantly less of those it used to be that it was much easier to make decent money on low end bikes (i.e. everyday bikes used for riding around town). I think things changed a bit with the popularity of e-bikes now (they are generally more expensive but also much more in demand, don't know about the margins exactly).
Looks like you had a sizeable well-run business, too bad it still didn't work out. At least you tried! I always wonder about those tiny inner-city bike shops and how it is possible to make a living.
We had our day! Business was okay, just not going to go far beyond a lifestyle business. A lifestyle business that takes away your weekends and part of every evening is a grind, so it was just time to move along.
I very much learned the importance of business models and product-market fit, though!
I very much learned the importance of business models and product-market fit, though!
I emailed 7 shops in my state of Michigan recently about a fat bike. All but one emailed me back with a sad face and said everyone is screwed until summer due to no supply.
I got really lucky and found one a 2 hour drive away. Now it’s an appreciating asset in my garage if you can believe it. I ride it of course but ever have I seen this kind of demand for bikes in my entire life.
I hope this is going to serve as a global correction on our need to be more self sufficient. I’ve been thinking a lot recently about how we took two steps forward with globalization and tech and we probably need to take one step back. Pretty much every bike and bike part is made in Taiwan or China. I’d love to have a made in the USA bike just as much as I’d imagine folks in the UK, South America, etc... feel the same.
I got really lucky and found one a 2 hour drive away. Now it’s an appreciating asset in my garage if you can believe it. I ride it of course but ever have I seen this kind of demand for bikes in my entire life.
I hope this is going to serve as a global correction on our need to be more self sufficient. I’ve been thinking a lot recently about how we took two steps forward with globalization and tech and we probably need to take one step back. Pretty much every bike and bike part is made in Taiwan or China. I’d love to have a made in the USA bike just as much as I’d imagine folks in the UK, South America, etc... feel the same.
Look into the niche markets then.
Like recumbents.
http://longbikes.com located in Colorado https://www.terratrike.com located in Michigan
There are atleast 3 others I can think of off the top of my head.
If you are looking for "A Generic Bicycle at Walmart prices", then yes you are SOL.
http://longbikes.com located in Colorado https://www.terratrike.com located in Michigan
There are atleast 3 others I can think of off the top of my head.
If you are looking for "A Generic Bicycle at Walmart prices", then yes you are SOL.
You got emails back!?
Here, in NYC of all places, I have 0 returned emails and even having cast a wider net.
Of course there's plenty of cheap e-bikes with junky components.
Here, in NYC of all places, I have 0 returned emails and even having cast a wider net.
Of course there's plenty of cheap e-bikes with junky components.
What sort of bike are you looking for? I had these folks build me a custom bike a few years ago: https://www.acmebicycleco.com/ and I loved every part of dealing with them.
They also did some custom work on my commuting bike (which involves quite a hodgepodge of fender/brake compromises) which was 10x better than I could do myself.
They also did some custom work on my commuting bike (which involves quite a hodgepodge of fender/brake compromises) which was 10x better than I could do myself.
It took a while for some of them. I actually just got one reply yesterday and this all happened before Xmas.
My problem is mainly with looking for specific components.
I want a decent commuter with belt drive and higher end components. Disc brakes.
I can get the cheap versions of this all day but not really the best stuff unless I possibly order it built by Maxx or get a Riese & Müller e-bike. Still looks like waiting until at least April though.
I want a decent commuter with belt drive and higher end components. Disc brakes.
I can get the cheap versions of this all day but not really the best stuff unless I possibly order it built by Maxx or get a Riese & Müller e-bike. Still looks like waiting until at least April though.
If you are comfortable/familiar with wrenching - it is often cheaper to build a bike yourself. It can be a pain - but in this situation I think it is the next best option.
One of the bike shops I had contacted suggested it, since a lot of shops around the country have a good stock of parts and you can usually find a nice used frameset online.
One of the bike shops I had contacted suggested it, since a lot of shops around the country have a good stock of parts and you can usually find a nice used frameset online.
There's also a problem with component availability. If you just want a fixie or a frankenbike it's okay but for anything else be prepared to wait and compromise. I just managed to order the last components I need for the bike I'm building this year. I had to compromise a bit, mix hubs drivetrain components
from several Shimano lineups, past and current. The frame was preordered and paid in full in June, it should have arrived in August, finally got it in October.
Yes, several of the things that I want are unobtainium at the moment, but do come in some completes.
It is almost never cheaper to build a bike yourself. Labor cost is not a factor. Completes are 99% built by the time they get to a store for selling.
Complete bikes are a highly competitive market whereas bike parts are mostly not.
You will get much more mileage for your dollars buying completes that have exactly what you want or with some small delta of upgrades.
Complete bikes are a highly competitive market whereas bike parts are mostly not.
You will get much more mileage for your dollars buying completes that have exactly what you want or with some small delta of upgrades.
So true. I went to a local bike shop in november and they had no bikes to sell. The guy, almost in tears, desperately showed me the waiting list on the provider website: next bikes expected by April 2021. He had sold all his stock a couple of months before, and had a lot of people willing to buy him bikes, yet he had to close the shop at the end.
It might be a lousy year for sales, but it should be an absolutely killer year for repair and tuneup work. The required bits for most tuneups are limited to lube, tubes, cable, and housing.
Those four things will get you a long way with most bikes that "ran when parked" 10-20 years ago. There is a vast number of bikes in the US that meet basically that description.
Source: was a volunteer bike mechanic at the Ohio City Bike Co-op. They got a lot of donations in that were at most 60 minutes of work from being rideable.
https://ohiocitycycles.org/
Those four things will get you a long way with most bikes that "ran when parked" 10-20 years ago. There is a vast number of bikes in the US that meet basically that description.
Source: was a volunteer bike mechanic at the Ohio City Bike Co-op. They got a lot of donations in that were at most 60 minutes of work from being rideable.
https://ohiocitycycles.org/
Brake pads aren't on that list? That's the other obvious consumable I can think of.
And for what it's worth my mechanic ran low on chains and sprockets at some point. I don't know if that was just him or larger supply chain issues though.
And for what it's worth my mechanic ran low on chains and sprockets at some point. I don't know if that was just him or larger supply chain issues though.
Brake pads wear out after thousands of miles. Most of the neglected bikes in the US got parked long before they accumulated enough miles to wear out brake pads. I've got maybe 4000 miles of mostly urban commuting (i.e. much harder on brake pads than rides in the country) on my nice road bike and I haven't changed them yet. For casual cyclists, brake pads are a lifetime part.
Possible exception: glazed brake pads, but still relatively uncommon. Cables and housing are much bigger wear items for most bikes. Mostly because they aren't stainless at the low end and rust.
Chains will also rust, but it's pretty hard to end up with an unsalvageable chain unless a bike has been left outside for a long time. Source: left my beater road bike outside at the curb for 9 years in Boston, including winters. Lubed the chain a couple times a year. It still runs.
Possible exception: glazed brake pads, but still relatively uncommon. Cables and housing are much bigger wear items for most bikes. Mostly because they aren't stainless at the low end and rust.
Chains will also rust, but it's pretty hard to end up with an unsalvageable chain unless a bike has been left outside for a long time. Source: left my beater road bike outside at the curb for 9 years in Boston, including winters. Lubed the chain a couple times a year. It still runs.
Maybe on road bikes but MTB brake pads are definitely a non lifetime part. Replaced my rear pads at the weekend, maybe 0.2mm remaining after around 800 miles or so of riding.
Getting oil on pads is also fairly easy to (accidentally) do. Learnt to be less liberal with the spray oil the hard way!
Unfortunately for bike shops replacing disk brake pads is trivial. Bleeding the Hydraulic system not so much, if it wasn't for the stopping power I'd trade back to brake cables any day.
Getting oil on pads is also fairly easy to (accidentally) do. Learnt to be less liberal with the spray oil the hard way!
Unfortunately for bike shops replacing disk brake pads is trivial. Bleeding the Hydraulic system not so much, if it wasn't for the stopping power I'd trade back to brake cables any day.
By extension: it seems to have been a great year for bike thieves, in the UK at least. Anecdotally, bike theft is through the roof.
Business idea: Make something like the iPhone's snitching low power bluetooth thingy for bikes. I am sure bike owners will glad run an app which monitors the surrounding for stolen bluetooth beacons. Make it work so it can be barricaded in the seat tube or integrated into the frame, not easily removed or destroyed. Make stealing cheap bikes risky and troublesome. Nothing will protect a 5k$ sports bike.
FYI an alternative is you can get tiny GPS trackers about the size of the top of your thumb for about the same price as the various Bluetooth LE options (about 20 Euros on Alibaba. Stick a SIM in them and put it on the bike, underneath the seat hidden etc and they are pretty decent, can last up to two weeks without recharging. Plus they are more likely to work and much much easier to track down your bike as you can use various apps to track in real time.
What do I type into google to buy this? A bit of searching has not turned up anything similar to what you describe :( Lots of ads for Tile and similar (aka not GPS trackers).
There's loads out there. For example on Aliexpress
https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005001742170443.html?spm=a2...
https://www.aliexpress.com/item/1005001742170443.html?spm=a2...
I wrote about bike GPS trackers here: https://ampedcycling.com/do-electric-bikes-have-gps-trackers...
The Guardian bike tracker is one potential option. I would caution against a generic bluetooth tracker, I am not sure if you can integrate it with a SIM card easily.
The Guardian bike tracker is one potential option. I would caution against a generic bluetooth tracker, I am not sure if you can integrate it with a SIM card easily.
> not easily removed or destroyed
So like a lock? It's an arms race, and if these things did really take off, bike thieves would find a way to defeat them (easy enough to detect if a bike has one after all).
Also it's not as if many many iPhones aren't being swiped on the streets of London either.
So like a lock? It's an arms race, and if these things did really take off, bike thieves would find a way to defeat them (easy enough to detect if a bike has one after all).
Also it's not as if many many iPhones aren't being swiped on the streets of London either.
No, a lock is easy to remove/destroy. It's at most a minute with the right tool (angle grinder), and the bike itself is left unaffected.
A tracking device though would be embedded inside the frame itself, and thus not be removable without cutting up (and thus likely destroying) the frame. The frame is the single-most valuable component on a bike.
A tracking device though would be embedded inside the frame itself, and thus not be removable without cutting up (and thus likely destroying) the frame. The frame is the single-most valuable component on a bike.
> The frame is the single-most valuable component on a bike.
Depends. And parts can be fenced with much less risk than entire bikes. I doubt that trackers provide any actual safety improvement, neither in the small (what will you do with the information you might get?) nor in the big (will trackers eventually reduce the number of thieves?).
What might help, I think, are serial number registries. Rohloff hub serials can be registered by owners and checked by would-be buyers, which I think does have some of the desired effect of making those bikes less attractive to thieves.
Depends. And parts can be fenced with much less risk than entire bikes. I doubt that trackers provide any actual safety improvement, neither in the small (what will you do with the information you might get?) nor in the big (will trackers eventually reduce the number of thieves?).
What might help, I think, are serial number registries. Rohloff hub serials can be registered by owners and checked by would-be buyers, which I think does have some of the desired effect of making those bikes less attractive to thieves.
I’m not that knowledgeable about what materials can be used to construct one, but doesn’t “embedded into the frame” mean “embedded in a Faraday cage”? Or could one use the frame as an antenna?
Yeah, that's what I was afraid of. I have the hope the frame itself may be used as antenna.
Contrary to what the other commenter said, this is not attractive for carbon frame owners as I wasn't thinking GPS tracking, but low power, snitching networks (like Apple's stuff, where the stolen iPhone only needs to be seen by another iPhone; or like corona tracking). How often do you see a carbon bikes in the wild? A frame like that may also have other components worth destroying the frame over.
Contrary to what the other commenter said, this is not attractive for carbon frame owners as I wasn't thinking GPS tracking, but low power, snitching networks (like Apple's stuff, where the stolen iPhone only needs to be seen by another iPhone; or like corona tracking). How often do you see a carbon bikes in the wild? A frame like that may also have other components worth destroying the frame over.
Yes, you'd need to handle the antenna issue. As far as engineering problems go though that's not a particularly hard challenge. Phones and laptops with metal cases have no problem with this despite a lack of external antennas.
Are you sure?
Bicycle frames have to be a lot stronger than phones and laptops. That means greater wall thickness (I think ½ mm is on the lower side for steel bicycle tubing)
Bicycle frames have to be a lot stronger than phones and laptops. That means greater wall thickness (I think ½ mm is on the lower side for steel bicycle tubing)
Bikes expensive enough to have a tracking device will largely be carbon fiber.
My insurance on the bike is lower if I use a https://bikefinder.com/en/ which is a device in the bike that tracks it (gps).
Already exists. A friend has his expensive bike with this system stolen, he tracked it back a few months down the road when it was found by a receiver.
I assume that's a different system with GMS/GPS systems. There is one manufacturer doing this, but it's not privacy friendly and not universal.
"Contrary to what people might think, 2020 has not been a good year for bike dealers, especially small ones. "
Well, that depends on who you ask.
Several local stores here saw it coming, and places enormous orders with their distributors when there was still inventory. My local did WELL -- they were aggressive and basically maxed their credit buying bikes from $400 to about $1200 (ie the sweet spot for casual riders), and sold every single one they could get their hands on.
They're now the go-to joint in inner Houston for e-bikes, too.
So there was a play to be made, and a way to surf this thing, but I also wouldn't be surprised to learn that this shop in particular was one of the few to really do it right.
Well, that depends on who you ask.
Several local stores here saw it coming, and places enormous orders with their distributors when there was still inventory. My local did WELL -- they were aggressive and basically maxed their credit buying bikes from $400 to about $1200 (ie the sweet spot for casual riders), and sold every single one they could get their hands on.
They're now the go-to joint in inner Houston for e-bikes, too.
So there was a play to be made, and a way to surf this thing, but I also wouldn't be surprised to learn that this shop in particular was one of the few to really do it right.
Well my experience talking to all the local bike shops in my area is that they actually have less inventory to sell than previous years, compounded with the problem of increased demand.
My local shop that is a Trek Dealer said last October that they were only just starting to get the bikes that they ordered back in February (pre-pandemic). Meaning that their standard inventory for summer never arrived. I just talked to this shop again this weekend because I was in there for ski service (like many bike shops in the Rocky Mountains, they are ski shops in the winter and bike shops in the summer), and the guy showed me their list of pending orders. They are expecting an order of bikes from Trek by the end of January that will complete the order they placed LAST APRIL. So at least for Trek, that is how far behind they are.
I have also visited 2 different dealers that sell Specialized ("Specialized" is the brand name). One of them (the smaller one) told me that they have $100,000 worth of bikes and accessories on order and have been waiting for over 5 months on them to arrive with no update on any changes.
The other Specialized Dealer is a big dealer in this area and they only have one bike in stock, a Peter Sagan edition Race Bike priced around $10k and 2 child sized bikes. They said they are still waiting for their orders from April to arrive.
One good sign was from a local shop that sells Santa Cruz Mountain Bikes. They apparently are only about 2 months behind. But that shop has still struggled to keep bikes in stock. So their demo fleet for people to take up to the ski resort (for downhill mountain biking) last summer was all previous model-year bikes because they couldn't set aside bikes for their demo fleet because they were selling as fast as they arrived. In fact he told me that they have been selling bikes off a waiting list for people 4-5 states away who are driving 12-24 straight hours to pick up bikes because this shop has been able to keep some in stock.
My local shop that is a Trek Dealer said last October that they were only just starting to get the bikes that they ordered back in February (pre-pandemic). Meaning that their standard inventory for summer never arrived. I just talked to this shop again this weekend because I was in there for ski service (like many bike shops in the Rocky Mountains, they are ski shops in the winter and bike shops in the summer), and the guy showed me their list of pending orders. They are expecting an order of bikes from Trek by the end of January that will complete the order they placed LAST APRIL. So at least for Trek, that is how far behind they are.
I have also visited 2 different dealers that sell Specialized ("Specialized" is the brand name). One of them (the smaller one) told me that they have $100,000 worth of bikes and accessories on order and have been waiting for over 5 months on them to arrive with no update on any changes.
The other Specialized Dealer is a big dealer in this area and they only have one bike in stock, a Peter Sagan edition Race Bike priced around $10k and 2 child sized bikes. They said they are still waiting for their orders from April to arrive.
One good sign was from a local shop that sells Santa Cruz Mountain Bikes. They apparently are only about 2 months behind. But that shop has still struggled to keep bikes in stock. So their demo fleet for people to take up to the ski resort (for downhill mountain biking) last summer was all previous model-year bikes because they couldn't set aside bikes for their demo fleet because they were selling as fast as they arrived. In fact he told me that they have been selling bikes off a waiting list for people 4-5 states away who are driving 12-24 straight hours to pick up bikes because this shop has been able to keep some in stock.
One of the aspects that really exacerbated the situation for road bikes was that Shimano (by far the biggest component manufacturer) was expected to release their new top of the line group-set this year.
Because they typically introduce new technology which is somewhat incompatible with previous generations (they were expected to go to 2x12 speed like the two other manufacturers), everyone was holding off on orders and the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019.
The manufacturers also expected a low volume year, hence they did not order that many components and frames either, so everyone was caught off-guard when the pandemic hit.
Because they typically introduce new technology which is somewhat incompatible with previous generations (they were expected to go to 2x12 speed like the two other manufacturers), everyone was holding off on orders and the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019.
The manufacturers also expected a low volume year, hence they did not order that many components and frames either, so everyone was caught off-guard when the pandemic hit.
"Because they typically introduce new technology which is somewhat incompatible with previous generations"
Just to clarify:
He doesn't meant that each year's new kit is incompatible with last year's. He just means that major generational changes introduce incompatibilities.
11-speed cassettes have been the rule for most new road bikes for quite some time now, but obviously when it was introduced it wasn't compatible with 10-speed systems.
11 has been around for a while now. Shimano has 3 "serious" tiers of road bike components: Dura Ace, Ultegra, and 105 at the "bottom". (The bottom here is the bottom of serious cycling, not the bottom of cycling generally; the lowest 105-equipped bike in Specialized's road line is $1,400 MSRP.)
When I bought a bike in late 2014, Dura Ace and Ultegra were 11-speed, but 105 was still 10. Then, for a while, everything was 11. You could (and can) mix and match within Shimano or within SRAM as long as everything was 11 speed (with the exception that you can't mix mechanical derailleurs and electronic shifters, or vice versa).
A year or two ago, SRAM introduced a new 12-speed electronic-only group at its high end ("RED"), which has since filtered down to its middle-grade ("Force"). SRAM still makes 11-speed mechanical and, I think, still makes parts for its first electronic setup ("eTap") which was 11-speed.
Shimano is behind, and still hasn't introduced a 12-speed system, but there's a lot of anticipation for it, which is what OP is referring to.
(I should also note for the record that Shimano still makes and sells lower-grade component groups, too; the cheapest road bike on the Specialized web site is intro level Allez at just $900. It comes with an 8-speed Shimano groupset called Claris, which is currently Shimano's bottom-of-the-line. They also still make a 9-speed (Sora) and a 10-speed (Tiagra).)
Just to clarify:
He doesn't meant that each year's new kit is incompatible with last year's. He just means that major generational changes introduce incompatibilities.
11-speed cassettes have been the rule for most new road bikes for quite some time now, but obviously when it was introduced it wasn't compatible with 10-speed systems.
11 has been around for a while now. Shimano has 3 "serious" tiers of road bike components: Dura Ace, Ultegra, and 105 at the "bottom". (The bottom here is the bottom of serious cycling, not the bottom of cycling generally; the lowest 105-equipped bike in Specialized's road line is $1,400 MSRP.)
When I bought a bike in late 2014, Dura Ace and Ultegra were 11-speed, but 105 was still 10. Then, for a while, everything was 11. You could (and can) mix and match within Shimano or within SRAM as long as everything was 11 speed (with the exception that you can't mix mechanical derailleurs and electronic shifters, or vice versa).
A year or two ago, SRAM introduced a new 12-speed electronic-only group at its high end ("RED"), which has since filtered down to its middle-grade ("Force"). SRAM still makes 11-speed mechanical and, I think, still makes parts for its first electronic setup ("eTap") which was 11-speed.
Shimano is behind, and still hasn't introduced a 12-speed system, but there's a lot of anticipation for it, which is what OP is referring to.
(I should also note for the record that Shimano still makes and sells lower-grade component groups, too; the cheapest road bike on the Specialized web site is intro level Allez at just $900. It comes with an 8-speed Shimano groupset called Claris, which is currently Shimano's bottom-of-the-line. They also still make a 9-speed (Sora) and a 10-speed (Tiagra).)
Thanks for adding to this. You're right that I didn't mean to imply that Shimano and others make old kit obsolete very quickly. I would even argue Shimano and Campagnolo (SRAM is still a bit unclear) have been quite good with keeping even old groups supplied with parts etc..
However, people who buy a new high-end bikes are generally reluctant to get a bike with a groupset that will not be the the latest in less than a years time. Especially because traditionally you could get extremely good deals on bikes with the old groupsets once the new one came out.
However, people who buy a new high-end bikes are generally reluctant to get a bike with a groupset that will not be the the latest in less than a years time. Especially because traditionally you could get extremely good deals on bikes with the old groupsets once the new one came out.
I mean, given the opportunity to be nerdy about something...
I have a vague sense that the move through 9 and 10 to 11 speed was pretty quick, and that the moment of effective 11-speed hegemony has been long and really shows no sign of truly fading, but I have only a few points to go on.
The biggest one is that SRAM has kept its 12-speed stuff segregated. They still sell mechanical Red and Force in 11, and the web site still shows Red eTap (the 11-speed electronic groupset). All the 12-speed stuff is at another tier and uses the "AXS" suffix for branding.
Nobody knows yet what Shimano will do. Campy is really on its own in lots of ways (I dunno about you, but in my circles riding Campy is mostly a way to say "I have lots of discretionary income and/or a very understanding spouse").
My neighbor is a bike tinkerer and serious rider. He's moved a couple of his bikes to AXS, but only by doing some wheeling/dealing on eBay & whatnot. It does not appear to have made him materially faster. ;)
I was itching for an upgrade on my bike back in the spring, and found the upgrade price for even Force AXS really offputting. I ended up putting Red eTap on, and have REALLY loved it, especially at < 1/2 the cost. I didn't really even consider the Shimano stuff, as I DRASTICALLY prefer the SRAM cockpit interface -- to say nothing of the simpler install, as eTap is wireless.
I have a vague sense that the move through 9 and 10 to 11 speed was pretty quick, and that the moment of effective 11-speed hegemony has been long and really shows no sign of truly fading, but I have only a few points to go on.
The biggest one is that SRAM has kept its 12-speed stuff segregated. They still sell mechanical Red and Force in 11, and the web site still shows Red eTap (the 11-speed electronic groupset). All the 12-speed stuff is at another tier and uses the "AXS" suffix for branding.
Nobody knows yet what Shimano will do. Campy is really on its own in lots of ways (I dunno about you, but in my circles riding Campy is mostly a way to say "I have lots of discretionary income and/or a very understanding spouse").
My neighbor is a bike tinkerer and serious rider. He's moved a couple of his bikes to AXS, but only by doing some wheeling/dealing on eBay & whatnot. It does not appear to have made him materially faster. ;)
I was itching for an upgrade on my bike back in the spring, and found the upgrade price for even Force AXS really offputting. I ended up putting Red eTap on, and have REALLY loved it, especially at < 1/2 the cost. I didn't really even consider the Shimano stuff, as I DRASTICALLY prefer the SRAM cockpit interface -- to say nothing of the simpler install, as eTap is wireless.
Great, another cycling geek!
I just looked this up and on DA both 9 and 10 speed lasted 8 years, so not faster than the move to 12 speed (btw it is pretty much confirmed that both Ultegra and DA will move to 12 speed this year, somewhat different to the usual cycle which had a 1-2 year delay for Ultegra to adopt DA tech).
Regarding Campagnolo, it's unfortunate that they have the reputation of being expensive. I think one reason for this is that they hardly do any OEM, so you have to build your own bike, which often ends up more expensive. In particular if you otherwise buy bikes when they are on sale. The other reason is because the groups don't really compare with the Shimano and SRAM groups, i.e. the equivalent to Ultegra is probably Potenza not Chorus, and to DA and RED it's probably Record (this isn't helped by the fact that Campa now only does SR in electronic).
I've recently after many years riding shimano moved back to campa (I got an awesome deal on a SR-EPS equipped bike) and I have to say it is an awesome groupset. From all I have read, especially if you want mechanical Campa super-record and record is what to get.
Regarding SRAM AXS, I want to like them, but I've heard about way to many quality control problems (Force AXS front derailleur chainsuck has been widely reported) , Red Etap was much better.
That said, I don't think any groupset will make you substantially faster.
I just looked this up and on DA both 9 and 10 speed lasted 8 years, so not faster than the move to 12 speed (btw it is pretty much confirmed that both Ultegra and DA will move to 12 speed this year, somewhat different to the usual cycle which had a 1-2 year delay for Ultegra to adopt DA tech).
Regarding Campagnolo, it's unfortunate that they have the reputation of being expensive. I think one reason for this is that they hardly do any OEM, so you have to build your own bike, which often ends up more expensive. In particular if you otherwise buy bikes when they are on sale. The other reason is because the groups don't really compare with the Shimano and SRAM groups, i.e. the equivalent to Ultegra is probably Potenza not Chorus, and to DA and RED it's probably Record (this isn't helped by the fact that Campa now only does SR in electronic).
I've recently after many years riding shimano moved back to campa (I got an awesome deal on a SR-EPS equipped bike) and I have to say it is an awesome groupset. From all I have read, especially if you want mechanical Campa super-record and record is what to get.
Regarding SRAM AXS, I want to like them, but I've heard about way to many quality control problems (Force AXS front derailleur chainsuck has been widely reported) , Red Etap was much better.
That said, I don't think any groupset will make you substantially faster.
Dealers for Trek and Specialized have not done as well here. I think this MAY be because those dealers are mostly all-in on whichever brand they carry. The shop I bought my Specialized Roubaix from in 2014, for example, HAS a very small number of non-Specialized bikes (maybe 4-6 AllCity plus a couple Moots), but the rest of the shop is ALL SPECIALIZED. You know what folks say about egg/basket redundancy.
The shop I mentioned that was clever and has done well as a result isn't a dealer for either. They carry BMC, Cervelo, Santa Cruz, Salsa, and some others, and they've managed to stay busy and stocked all year.
The shop I mentioned that was clever and has done well as a result isn't a dealer for either. They carry BMC, Cervelo, Santa Cruz, Salsa, and some others, and they've managed to stay busy and stocked all year.
Here in Switzerland it has been a good yeah however. During the Lockdown the sales have increased by 25%. People use their bikes more too. And the both the in and export of e-bikes has increased.
Sorry, all in German:
https://bellevue.nzz.ch/reisen-entdecken/velo-boom-in-der-sc...
https://www.velosuisse.ch/e-bike-markt-waechst-weiter-mit-gr...
Sorry, all in German:
https://bellevue.nzz.ch/reisen-entdecken/velo-boom-in-der-sc...
https://www.velosuisse.ch/e-bike-markt-waechst-weiter-mit-gr...
True. In Switzerland, it is expensive to even hold a driver’s license. Driving in general is expensive.
While public transportation is phenomenal, clean, and can be relied on, it’s a pandemic. So, it makes sense that people are riding their bikes.
While public transportation is phenomenal, clean, and can be relied on, it’s a pandemic. So, it makes sense that people are riding their bikes.
I disagree, driving is cheap in Switzerland. It's cheaper than public transports unless you really want to drive that Porsche Cayenne in Geneva and your employer pays for your GA.
The year 2020 was good in terms of sales. But its effects in 2021 will lead to vendor consolidation.
For some news on this from the perspective of the individual bicycle retail stores, there's a vertical/trade journal for them:
https://www.bicycleretailer.com/
If you go through the past news articles there, lots of info about import data, sales boom and sell out of in stock inventory during 2020, etc.
https://www.bicycleretailer.com/
If you go through the past news articles there, lots of info about import data, sales boom and sell out of in stock inventory during 2020, etc.
There's probably a gap in the market for bike shops in Denmark (and the Netherlands too). Everyone here already owns at least one bicycle, so there was no need to purchase another. The shops still have plenty of stock, and a quick look a the website shows 10-15% "January" discounts.
However, none of the four online shops I tried deliver outside Denmark.
However, none of the four online shops I tried deliver outside Denmark.
In a moment of inspired genius, one of the local bike shop owners stuffed a big chunk of savings into bike inventory back in March/ April. He had bikes stuffed into every corner of the shop and was pretty much the only shop with decent inventory for most of the year.
But now even his inventory is bare. Maybe I should sell one of my bikes to help relieve the pressure.
Hmm
Nah.
But now even his inventory is bare. Maybe I should sell one of my bikes to help relieve the pressure.
Hmm
Nah.
But the reduced availability surely enabled dealers to sell a far bigger fraction (likely very close to all!) of what they sold at list price or reasonably close, whereas a typical season will see a considerable part of inventory being pushed out at wild discounts. The entire pricing structure is built for a high margin/high discount pattern. I wouldn't be surprised if some would be able to earn more than usually even on less than half the inventory, and the upstream availability surely didn't collapse that hard.
In my yard I can see about 6-10 bikes rotting away. Shop owners could make upcycling a business.
Anyway, I think it's getting really cold the next months, so demand will probably go down a bit.
Anyway, I think it's getting really cold the next months, so demand will probably go down a bit.
No they can’t because they can’t get parts. Even things like patch kits were hard to find for a big chunk of the year.
Around here, even Walmart has no bicycle inventory... had to go to the flea market and buy a used one.
Do bike dealers not also make money from increased demand for services?
Servicing (except perhaps puncture repairs) is a very low margin business. This is why online retail has hurt the bike industry so hard: the servicing was subsidized by bike and component sales. Now, local bike shops are expected to service bikes purchased online.
My nearest bike shop is only servicing bikes bought in the shop. They introduced this before Covid.
Isn't this self-defeating? Why would they refuse a service instead of charging more? I expect to be able to buy a bike online and the shop assembles and adjusts it for me (of course for a price).
I'm assuming they had a stream of cheapskates in the shop who expected high levels of service without spending any money.
Ive experience with three shops, given the lowish margins, transaction costs of stock and sometimes reduction in mechanics - its not nearly enough to make up the deficit. The most lucrative services, fittings, are not something every shop does or is equipped for. Maintenance is relatively cheap and 2020 waiting lists were sometimes months long given the spike in riders forcing many to DIY. Many will let you order parts through the shop but prices are almost always more expensive than going to the vendor site.
> Maintenance is relatively cheap and 2020 waiting lists were sometimes months long given the spike in riders forcing many to DIY.
As another commenter has said - why don't shops charge according to the increased demand? This situation benefits them.
As another commenter has said - why don't shops charge according to the increased demand? This situation benefits them.
If youve only so many mechanics, who do you really benefit increasing the price when most people will end up on the wait list anyway? Then you run the risk of losing them to the next shop.
Supplies of spare parts have been constrained as well. It took two months to get some replacement tyres for my bike.
Do you mean they only got 80% of what they ordered in 2019 for 2020?
No, 2020 is unaffected. 2021 will be problematic.
The most important part about being locked in my house for a month was the hours of dog walking, and hours of exercise I got to take. If, on the flip side of this pandemic we end up with people who use their car less, then that's a good thing. For the environment, for infrastructure, for other car drivers.
Bikes, and electric bikes make a lot of sense these days and they are way more CC friendly than a cybertruck.
Bikes, and electric bikes make a lot of sense these days and they are way more CC friendly than a cybertruck.
Totally agree. I just placed an order for an eFatbike last week. I've spent the last 9 months hiking every possible hiking trail within an hour or so of me. Now it's time to explore all the MTB trails and fire roads. Getting outside on weekends is the only thing that has kept me sane since the pandemic started. I haven't been to my company office, client sites, gym, restaurant, etc. since mid March. Other than to go grocery shopping every other week and hiking on weekends, I rarely leave the house at all.
Usually big cities try things like bicycle lanes. This has moderate success for brave bicycle riders but probably is not a safe for less brave riders around cars that aren't used to bicycles.
I keep trying to point my local government, since they've already taken my money anyway, towards the Bentonville model. Instead of building bike lanes, build single track that runs through the town. This has been incredibly successful for them. Instead of building sidewalks they build dirt paths.
The other option is streamway buffer trails which completely remove bikes from traffic and provide shortcuts without red lights through the city.
I keep trying to point my local government, since they've already taken my money anyway, towards the Bentonville model. Instead of building bike lanes, build single track that runs through the town. This has been incredibly successful for them. Instead of building sidewalks they build dirt paths.
The other option is streamway buffer trails which completely remove bikes from traffic and provide shortcuts without red lights through the city.
The real problem in the US is that we aren't building protected bike lanes networks that treat riders as first-class users like the Netherlands does. Most of our "bike lanes" are nothing more than narrowed painted lanes on the road sandwiched between fast moving traffic and parked cars (with potentially opening doors). Non-experienced cyclists will rightfully not feel safe using these lanes because they aren't safe. But build better infrastructure and even children can use it safely.
I live in Germany, where the tendency in the past ~50 years has been to add bike lanes to sidewalks. This may feel safer for "non-experienced riders", but has its own issues: instead of being on the driver's side of cars (who tend to look into the mirror before opening the door), you'll be on the passenger side, and the passengers don't have a mirror to look into. At intersections, drivers turning right (especially truck drivers) will tend to overlook you. Plus, you'll have pedestrians stepping in front of your bike, snow not being cleared in Winter and other annoyances. So, the grass may look greener on the other side, but not all that glitters is gold...
The legislation around bike lanes has changed considerably in Germany 20 years ago but the removal of existing cycling lanes which don't conform to the current law is taking a lot of time.
In a nutshell: To construct a separate bike lane which cyclists are then obligated by law to use, is only permissible in rare circumstances where the road would be exceptionally dangerous for cyclists to use. In 2009 improved standards for the construction of separated bike lanes were codified.
Previously separate cycling lanes were constructed mostly to help cars move faster. Their quality (width, separation from foot traffic or parked cars, surface quality, etc.) was often horrendously bad and it is in no way enjoyable or expedient to use them.
Additionally if separated from the road by a row of parked cars or a hedge drivers turning right at intersections have a hard time to spot cyclists. As a cyclist you always have to be on the lookout even if you would have the right of way because a driver just might not have seen you.
In a nutshell: To construct a separate bike lane which cyclists are then obligated by law to use, is only permissible in rare circumstances where the road would be exceptionally dangerous for cyclists to use. In 2009 improved standards for the construction of separated bike lanes were codified.
Previously separate cycling lanes were constructed mostly to help cars move faster. Their quality (width, separation from foot traffic or parked cars, surface quality, etc.) was often horrendously bad and it is in no way enjoyable or expedient to use them.
Additionally if separated from the road by a row of parked cars or a hedge drivers turning right at intersections have a hard time to spot cyclists. As a cyclist you always have to be on the lookout even if you would have the right of way because a driver just might not have seen you.
Germany is still far superior to the US here. IIRC bike mode share in Germany is like 10%, whereas in the US it's under 1%.
I'm in Munich and agree that it's not Netherlands-level infrastructure, but it still blows basically anywhere in the US out of the water.
I'm in Munich and agree that it's not Netherlands-level infrastructure, but it still blows basically anywhere in the US out of the water.
i advocate converting street parking into protected bike lanes. this has the advantage of also internalizing the cost of parking to car owners.
The only good infrastructure makes use of existing rail right of way or paths near rivers. If they provide a way to get to various destinations around town or a fast way to travel between towns, then they'll be used and prove useful.
Protected bicycle lanes is a misnomer. Protected, in traffic engineering terms, refers to something like a protected traffic light phase where one stream of traffic has exclusive access to the intersection (e.g., a protected left turn arrow).
The barrier separated lanes reduce the visibility of cyclists from the motorists' point of view and vice versa. When both get to an intersecton and the motorist needs to turn right, it's not possible for them to see the cyclist well enough in advance to actually yield to them. The same thing happens to cyclists because they can't easily see approaching traffic due to visual obstructions.
The safest solution is to have cyclists follow the same rules of the road that all other vehicle operators follow and allow cyclists full use of the lane they're in. That is, get rid of laws that require cyclists to ride as far right as practicable regardless of the presence of marked lanes or use a bike lane (e.g., https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/VAT/1234).
Protected bicycle lanes is a misnomer. Protected, in traffic engineering terms, refers to something like a protected traffic light phase where one stream of traffic has exclusive access to the intersection (e.g., a protected left turn arrow).
The barrier separated lanes reduce the visibility of cyclists from the motorists' point of view and vice versa. When both get to an intersecton and the motorist needs to turn right, it's not possible for them to see the cyclist well enough in advance to actually yield to them. The same thing happens to cyclists because they can't easily see approaching traffic due to visual obstructions.
The safest solution is to have cyclists follow the same rules of the road that all other vehicle operators follow and allow cyclists full use of the lane they're in. That is, get rid of laws that require cyclists to ride as far right as practicable regardless of the presence of marked lanes or use a bike lane (e.g., https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/VAT/1234).
Or you could build protected intersections, as is standard in the Netherlands: https://youtu.be/FlApbxLz6pA
Drivers in the US are trained to yield to traffic before entering an intersection. They don't typically yield to traffic when exiting one. For pedestrians moving at walking pace, it's possible for them to see the pedestrian about to cross and yield since the pedestrian will be very close to the intersection.
A cyclist 20 to 30 feet away will not be in view of the motorist who is in the process of accelerating as they exit the intersection.
Making intersecton navigation more complex makes it more likely that someone will make a mistake.
A cyclist 20 to 30 feet away will not be in view of the motorist who is in the process of accelerating as they exit the intersection.
Making intersecton navigation more complex makes it more likely that someone will make a mistake.
There's usually no need to yield, traffic signals regulate that. The idea here is to create a more forgiving environment where making mistakes is less likely and less harmful. Thousands of these intersections have been build, here's some examples and some US context and research:
https://youtu.be/5HDN9fUlqU8
http://www.protectedintersection.com
https://altago.com/wp-content/uploads/Evolution-of-the-Prote...
https://youtu.be/5HDN9fUlqU8
http://www.protectedintersection.com
https://altago.com/wp-content/uploads/Evolution-of-the-Prote...
> There's usually no need to yield, traffic signals regulate that
Yet, the one example of a protected intersection I'm aware of in the US in Salt Lake City Utah[1] doesn't have bicycle specific traffic signals that regulate turning movements. They rely on motorists yielding to cyclists, or cyclists yielding to motorists. This causes problems when cyclists believe they have pedestrian style right-of-way when there's no law supporting that notion and it's not possible to see a cyclist moving at 20 to 30 feet per second in time to yield to them as they're about to cross the path of the motorist.
[1] https://twitter.com/i/status/654674368597852161
Yet, the one example of a protected intersection I'm aware of in the US in Salt Lake City Utah[1] doesn't have bicycle specific traffic signals that regulate turning movements. They rely on motorists yielding to cyclists, or cyclists yielding to motorists. This causes problems when cyclists believe they have pedestrian style right-of-way when there's no law supporting that notion and it's not possible to see a cyclist moving at 20 to 30 feet per second in time to yield to them as they're about to cross the path of the motorist.
[1] https://twitter.com/i/status/654674368597852161
This kind of attitude is amazing to me.
American bike infra design and culture has been a failure on nearly every level, and yet you're rejecting the lessons from the world leader.
Do you really think American drivers wouldn't eventually adapt to better infrastructure? Even the Dutch had to learn at some point.
American bike infra design and culture has been a failure on nearly every level, and yet you're rejecting the lessons from the world leader.
Do you really think American drivers wouldn't eventually adapt to better infrastructure? Even the Dutch had to learn at some point.
> American bike infra design and culture has been a failure on nearly every level
In what way? I live in a town with a major university and there are plenty of cyclists on the roads leading to and from campus as well as on campus itself. This is the case at many universities I've been to.
Also, as far as I'm aware, there are no protected bike lane installations anywhere around campus or in town, but we do have a nice rail trail.
In what way? I live in a town with a major university and there are plenty of cyclists on the roads leading to and from campus as well as on campus itself. This is the case at many universities I've been to.
Also, as far as I'm aware, there are no protected bike lane installations anywhere around campus or in town, but we do have a nice rail trail.
You're over-thinking it. "Protected" just means physical protection is provided. E.g. right now a lot of the supposedly separated bike lanes near me in Manhattan aren't protected in any meaningful way, so you often see cars illegally parked in them and sometimes even driving in them (!). Protection is as simple as physical curbs and other barriers that prevent vehicles from being able to get into the bike lanes. That's protection. Intersections actually do tend to be protected the most because they have started building some curbs at corners as pedestrian refuges between the bike and vehicle lanes, which have the side-effect of keeping cars out.
> You're over-thinking it. "Protected" just means physical protection is provided.
I'm using the standard definition of protected (as opposed to permissive) as used in the traffic engineering profession. Besides, I've heard the term protected used for lanes where flexi bollards are placed between the general purpose lane and bike lane. This in no way is going to provide any notion of protection and there's no intersection management separating traffic flow in terms of time slices (as would be done using a traffic signal).
> Protection is as simple as physical curbs and other barriers that prevent vehicles from being able to get into the bike lanes. That's protection. Intersections actually do tend to be protected the most because they have started building some curbs at corners as pedestrian refuges between the bike and vehicle lanes,
Except, that protection/barrier, as you define it does not extend all the way through the intersection. At some point, the paths of a motorist and cyclist will cross (e.g., cyclist going straight while motorist is turning). If you have bicycle specific signals that regulate traffic in such a way that cyclists and motorists never go through the intersection at the same time, then you do have protection.
I'm using the standard definition of protected (as opposed to permissive) as used in the traffic engineering profession. Besides, I've heard the term protected used for lanes where flexi bollards are placed between the general purpose lane and bike lane. This in no way is going to provide any notion of protection and there's no intersection management separating traffic flow in terms of time slices (as would be done using a traffic signal).
> Protection is as simple as physical curbs and other barriers that prevent vehicles from being able to get into the bike lanes. That's protection. Intersections actually do tend to be protected the most because they have started building some curbs at corners as pedestrian refuges between the bike and vehicle lanes,
Except, that protection/barrier, as you define it does not extend all the way through the intersection. At some point, the paths of a motorist and cyclist will cross (e.g., cyclist going straight while motorist is turning). If you have bicycle specific signals that regulate traffic in such a way that cyclists and motorists never go through the intersection at the same time, then you do have protection.
No. Protected bike lanes are safer, and with protected intersections, drivers can indeed see them coming. The US has even fewer protected intersections than lanes though, IIRC the first ones were only built in like 2014 or something.
The Netherlands does this with protected lanes, often with a little bit of extra separation from cars, and it works great. They also do mixing, but only in areas that can accommodate low speeds.
The Netherlands does this with protected lanes, often with a little bit of extra separation from cars, and it works great. They also do mixing, but only in areas that can accommodate low speeds.
> No. Protected bike lanes are safer
Could you provide a citation supporting this assertion using data obtained in the US or Canada?
Could you provide a citation supporting this assertion using data obtained in the US or Canada?
Why does it have to be in the US or Canada, places known to have extremely few protected bike lanes, and almost no protected intersections?
Look, on safe, Dutch-style infrastructure, you'll have even six year olds riding bikes semi-independently around (their parents will be near, but not, like, constantly bodyblocking cars from them). I know, because here in Munich we have some infrastructure like this, not as much as the Dutch, but some.
Now, how many six year olds do you think can safely 'take the lane' on busy American arterials independently from their parents? The idea is absurd on its face.
I have actual experience here with our son being as young as five, biking on city streets with us, and not just the calm local residential roads, something I would never do in the states at that age, and certainly not having him 'take the lane'. If I did that, I'd probably be getting a talking to from CPS, and rightly so.
Look, on safe, Dutch-style infrastructure, you'll have even six year olds riding bikes semi-independently around (their parents will be near, but not, like, constantly bodyblocking cars from them). I know, because here in Munich we have some infrastructure like this, not as much as the Dutch, but some.
Now, how many six year olds do you think can safely 'take the lane' on busy American arterials independently from their parents? The idea is absurd on its face.
I have actual experience here with our son being as young as five, biking on city streets with us, and not just the calm local residential roads, something I would never do in the states at that age, and certainly not having him 'take the lane'. If I did that, I'd probably be getting a talking to from CPS, and rightly so.
> Why does it have to be in the US or Canada, places known to have extremely few protected bike lanes, and almost no protected intersections?
Because then you can make a direct comparison in terms of crash rates, counts, etc. between roads that have these facilities and those that don't, or compare the data before and after facilities have been put in place.
> Now, how many six year olds do you think can safely 'take the lane' on busy American arterials independently from their parents?
How many 6 year olds do you see traveling independently around places outside their immediate neighborhood? It seems you're using an example of a need that simply doesn't exist. As a parent and knowing other parents, I've and they have never sent a 6 year old child to travel independently to some destination that requires they ride their bicycle for a couple of miles to get to.
In contrast, how many 6 year olds understand where to look for approaching traffic when cycling in the pedestrian position. Do they understand the risk of a right hook, left cross, or drive out? I tried asking my 9 year old and she wasn't able to figure it out even with me showing a picture of a barrier separated bike lane approaching an intersection and asking her leading questions about where to look for approaching vehicles.
That being said, I would never let my children ride in a barrier separated bike lane because they don't understand where they need to check for traffic when crossing an intersection.
As for taking the lane, one must understand the rules of the road for drivers of vehicles prior to doing that. I'm still working on that with my 9 year old. I don't think that most 6 year olds are capable of that.
Because then you can make a direct comparison in terms of crash rates, counts, etc. between roads that have these facilities and those that don't, or compare the data before and after facilities have been put in place.
> Now, how many six year olds do you think can safely 'take the lane' on busy American arterials independently from their parents?
How many 6 year olds do you see traveling independently around places outside their immediate neighborhood? It seems you're using an example of a need that simply doesn't exist. As a parent and knowing other parents, I've and they have never sent a 6 year old child to travel independently to some destination that requires they ride their bicycle for a couple of miles to get to.
In contrast, how many 6 year olds understand where to look for approaching traffic when cycling in the pedestrian position. Do they understand the risk of a right hook, left cross, or drive out? I tried asking my 9 year old and she wasn't able to figure it out even with me showing a picture of a barrier separated bike lane approaching an intersection and asking her leading questions about where to look for approaching vehicles.
That being said, I would never let my children ride in a barrier separated bike lane because they don't understand where they need to check for traffic when crossing an intersection.
As for taking the lane, one must understand the rules of the road for drivers of vehicles prior to doing that. I'm still working on that with my 9 year old. I don't think that most 6 year olds are capable of that.
[deleted]
Not all bike lanes are created equal. Paint does not protect riders. Plastic cones do not protect riders. Car drivers can still veer into a bike lane that is delineated in this manner if they are not paying attention. Actual protected bike lanes that have concrete or steel barriers do protect those on bikes.
Protected lanes set up cyclists to get t-boned by turning drivers. In the US these are effectively glorified sidewalks where every road and driveway crossing is a death trap.
Protected lanes should be accompanied by protected intersections as well: https://youtu.be/FlApbxLz6pA
NACTO standards for protected intersections provide insufficient visibility for the cyclist and motorist on approach to the intersection [1]. For example they claim that for 25 mph traffic, the total clear sight distance should be 50 feet for a cyclist approaching the intersection where the turning car is ahead of the cyclist.
They're making several assumptions:
1. The cyclist will be looking to their left for traffic to the front rather than paying attention to what's directly in front of them
2. The cyclist assumes that the motorist cannot see them and will not yield
For the first item, there may be slower traffic in front of them they need to watch out for, taking their attention away from the street beside them. Same thing for surface hazards. For the second item, the cyclist may believe that since they can see the motorist, the motorist can see them and they can go ahead and proceed through the intersection.
From the motorist point of view, they're assuming that the motorist is lookinat the bikeway rather than at the road (checking the color of the traffic light, verifying that a car making a left turn is going to yield, pedestrians, etc). A motorist traveling between 15 to 25 mph is going to cover the clear sight distance of 50 feet in a second or two, meaning they don't have much time at all to assess the situation on the bikeway.
The second thing they claim [2] is that a bikeway setback increases visibility. Yet the pictures they use at the bottom of the page are the same picture cropped differently. One would think that they would have tried to use an actual example of this in their guide, but they did not. The other fundamental problem is that cyclists move between 15 to 30 feet per second. That means that a car driver needs to be able to see 30 to 60 feet down the bikeway in order to see an approaching cyclist in order to have enough time to yield to them. And they need to do this while moving through the turn at 10 to 15 feet per second.
[1] https://nacto.org/publication/dont-give-up-at-the-intersecti...
[2] https://nacto.org/publication/dont-give-up-at-the-intersecti...
They're making several assumptions:
1. The cyclist will be looking to their left for traffic to the front rather than paying attention to what's directly in front of them
2. The cyclist assumes that the motorist cannot see them and will not yield
For the first item, there may be slower traffic in front of them they need to watch out for, taking their attention away from the street beside them. Same thing for surface hazards. For the second item, the cyclist may believe that since they can see the motorist, the motorist can see them and they can go ahead and proceed through the intersection.
From the motorist point of view, they're assuming that the motorist is lookinat the bikeway rather than at the road (checking the color of the traffic light, verifying that a car making a left turn is going to yield, pedestrians, etc). A motorist traveling between 15 to 25 mph is going to cover the clear sight distance of 50 feet in a second or two, meaning they don't have much time at all to assess the situation on the bikeway.
The second thing they claim [2] is that a bikeway setback increases visibility. Yet the pictures they use at the bottom of the page are the same picture cropped differently. One would think that they would have tried to use an actual example of this in their guide, but they did not. The other fundamental problem is that cyclists move between 15 to 30 feet per second. That means that a car driver needs to be able to see 30 to 60 feet down the bikeway in order to see an approaching cyclist in order to have enough time to yield to them. And they need to do this while moving through the turn at 10 to 15 feet per second.
[1] https://nacto.org/publication/dont-give-up-at-the-intersecti...
[2] https://nacto.org/publication/dont-give-up-at-the-intersecti...
That's why you also have protected intersections.
This is how they do it in the Netherlands, world leader in safe biking for everyone.
This is how they do it in the Netherlands, world leader in safe biking for everyone.
It will be interesting to see how the bike usage will survive post-pandemic.
Anecdotal experience in my social circle: Many people bought a bike just to keep active during the pandemic measures. Many justified the "somewhat impulsive" spending by hoping to use it for short commute/transportation needs in the future.
Most bike have been collecting dust in a garage for several month, after the first three "bike excursion", the conversion rate is close to 0%.
Bicycle enthusiasts I know predict that there will be a glut of barely used, higher-end road bikes and components for sale in 6-12 months from now, after people realize that their impulsive $3500-6000 purchase was not the best idea ever. I'm not even talking about really high end stuff, basically what you would get if you walked into a Trek, Specialized or Giant dealer in spring 2020 and bought a full carbon frame road bike with mechanical 105 groupset on it. No Di2 or whatever.
I live in a big city with a lot of tech workers and white collar professionals so plenty of disposable income.
Just from talking to people out riding this summer it seems like a lot of people bought bikes they could technically afford but were way above their preferred price range simply due to availability.
What people wanted was $500 bikes but there were only $2500 bikes so that's what they got. It's not like they're stupid or even necessarily made a bad choice. They wanted a bike and got the bike they could get.
Just from talking to people out riding this summer it seems like a lot of people bought bikes they could technically afford but were way above their preferred price range simply due to availability.
What people wanted was $500 bikes but there were only $2500 bikes so that's what they got. It's not like they're stupid or even necessarily made a bad choice. They wanted a bike and got the bike they could get.
I wonder if this will negatively impact mid-tier bike sales in 2-3 years time? Some of those riders would have bought a $500 bike, realized how much fun they were having and then upgraded. A $2500 bike is unlikely to be upgraded for a good while longer.
Not being able to dine out, take vacations, or go to concerts has put a lot of disposable income in the hands of a good chunk of the population this year.
Not being able to dine out, take vacations, or go to concerts has put a lot of disposable income in the hands of a good chunk of the population this year.
I kinda doubt it. A lot of those were bought by people who wouldn't have bought any bike this year or any year without the pandemic. So they were definitely not going to upgrade next year or whatever.
Some of those people are probably on bikes that don't fit that great due to availability and they'll be looking for better sizing as they get more into it.
And of course the majority probably won't get super into cycling but again they weren't going to either way so it's not really a "lost" sale.
Plus I mean it's kind of a running joke among bike people that you don't really upgrade like it's a piece of technology. You keep the old ones and just accumulate more as you go.
Some of those people are probably on bikes that don't fit that great due to availability and they'll be looking for better sizing as they get more into it.
And of course the majority probably won't get super into cycling but again they weren't going to either way so it's not really a "lost" sale.
Plus I mean it's kind of a running joke among bike people that you don't really upgrade like it's a piece of technology. You keep the old ones and just accumulate more as you go.
I'm betting on this too. I'm already seeing some 2019-2020 barely-used $5000 bikes going for $2500-3000 on second hand bike sites right now. Can't wait to scoop one in a few months. I'm saving up for a carbon frame with Di2 myself haha.
While supply struggles to catch up with demand (and with 'regular' order levels) the used bike market will command high prices. Unless those people who spent $6k on a bike 'need' the money they'll be looking for a premium price.
Once the market stabilizes the bike manufacturers and dealers will go back to offering generous trade-in and 'last years model' discounts and those impulse bikes will have to drop a lot off their original price to look like a bargain. I suspect it will look a lot like the US used car market where a new car is cheaper than the same thing with 20k miles - by the time you account for manufacturer promotional discounts and dealer haggling.
Also I'm not sure I'd want to roll the dice on any used carbon frameset or wheels. Are modern carbon frames less brittle than I am led to believe?
Once the market stabilizes the bike manufacturers and dealers will go back to offering generous trade-in and 'last years model' discounts and those impulse bikes will have to drop a lot off their original price to look like a bargain. I suspect it will look a lot like the US used car market where a new car is cheaper than the same thing with 20k miles - by the time you account for manufacturer promotional discounts and dealer haggling.
Also I'm not sure I'd want to roll the dice on any used carbon frameset or wheels. Are modern carbon frames less brittle than I am led to believe?
That's interesting. I've heard differently here in NYC. I imagine the "stickiness" will vary based on things like local infrastructure.
Also it's the winter right now-- a historically low biking season. Your friends might pick it up again in the spring.
Also it's the winter right now-- a historically low biking season. Your friends might pick it up again in the spring.
Sadly, this seems not to be happening so much in less developed countries in Central/Eastern Europe, notably Poland. My educated guess is that it's because a car is still a status symbol here, rather than a (very) costly tool for moving around.
Don't get me wrong, bike usage in Warsaw (where I am right now) is increasing, but it isn't nearly the revolution other EU cities have seen, and the support from authorities is lukewarm.
Don't get me wrong, bike usage in Warsaw (where I am right now) is increasing, but it isn't nearly the revolution other EU cities have seen, and the support from authorities is lukewarm.
Similar phenomenon has happened with Nordic (cross-country) skiing and backcountry skiing gear this winter. Sudden spike in interest, stores out of stock of equipment. I suspect most of this is purely aspirational, both those activities require large amounts of training & skill and access to particular conditions/terrain that most people don't have. But it's still interesting to watch.
Can't wait to pick up an aspirational splitboard for cheap in the spring!
I have several aspirational backcountry & telemark setups here now. They look very nice. But now I can't travel. Not even regionally, really. Province-wide lockdown. And all lift served skiing shutdown, too. Also no snow in local area, so can't even hit that.
2020 continues on sucking, right into 2021
2020 continues on sucking, right into 2021
Generally the UK leisure/outdoor industry has done pretty well this year, lots of people buying bikes, kayaks, canoe, SUP, and other sporting gear. They are definitely selling as many as they can get. I guess any UK based manufacturers will have been able to sell as many as they can make, maybe more local fabricators or at least assemblers will be able to start up as a result.
Of course the 2nd hand market for all this stuff has been booming too, physically as well as on fb/ebay. People have been paying new prices for old goods. I could have made a bit of money buying and selling kayaks this year!
Of course the 2nd hand market for all this stuff has been booming too, physically as well as on fb/ebay. People have been paying new prices for old goods. I could have made a bit of money buying and selling kayaks this year!
Interesting, I have heard this already many times from bike shop owners here in Germany but in my personal experience I have not seen/felt more crowded bike lanes (and I ride a lot). Purely anecdotal, however.
I observed much more crowded bike lanes (in Hamburg), especially during the morning commute between 8 and 9. There were bicycle traffic jams in places where none were last year.
Also, I observed lots and lots of blue-tired rented bicycles during the summer, though their numbers seems to have reduced a lot since the weather got wet and cold.
Also, I observed lots and lots of blue-tired rented bicycles during the summer, though their numbers seems to have reduced a lot since the weather got wet and cold.
The blue-tyred bikes are long-term rental bikes from https://swapfiets.com . They're a good deal for someone who is only living somewhere for ~6 months or less.
Version without ads (works outside the UK for some reason): https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/bespoke/made-on-earth/the-great...
Some numbers. These are total monthly counts of riders observed at the same 17 measurement points:
That's quite an increase year-over-year! The December number are lower, but possibly more impressive considering it was rather lockdown-ish and general mobility fell somewhat.
It's also a good datapoint to counter concerns about the weather.
It's interesting that there's an effect going on here that's somewhat close to a Giffen good (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giffen_good): People avoid public transport and any single one might opt for a car instead. But because road capacity is fixed (that's income in the analogy), more of it needs to be devoted to the most efficient option, i. e. bikes. So the city converted car to bike lanes, and car traffic is actually down.