The Flu Vanished During Covid. What Will Its Return Look Like?(nytimes.com)
nytimes.com
The Flu Vanished During Covid. What Will Its Return Look Like?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/04/22/science/flu-season-coronavirus-pandemic.html
9 comments
> Cultural norms... have permanently shifted.
A bold statement, especially to be made whilst the pandemic is still ongoing. Maybe put a pin in that and revisit it 5 and 10 years from now.
A bold statement, especially to be made whilst the pandemic is still ongoing. Maybe put a pin in that and revisit it 5 and 10 years from now.
I agree.
What strikes me about images from the Spanish Flu is that they went through the same things we are going through now. Look how long it took for everyone to forget their lessons learned. The more one reads up on it, the more difficult it becomes to deny how much we are repeating history.
This has always been the case among the masses. Look at how we vote in one party, get exasperated with them, vote defiantly for the other, rinse and repeat without ever actually getting anywhere with it. In Canada, the cliché pattern is that we vote in the Conservatives and they mess the country up financially. Angrily people vote in the Liberals and rejoice until a scandal breaks. As a result, they turn and vote Conservative... repeat, repeat.
We are creatures of comfort, and eventually (and surprisingly quickly) we'll be right back at life as if nothing happened these past couple years. Any lessons and new habits will be forgotten in record speed.
What strikes me about images from the Spanish Flu is that they went through the same things we are going through now. Look how long it took for everyone to forget their lessons learned. The more one reads up on it, the more difficult it becomes to deny how much we are repeating history.
This has always been the case among the masses. Look at how we vote in one party, get exasperated with them, vote defiantly for the other, rinse and repeat without ever actually getting anywhere with it. In Canada, the cliché pattern is that we vote in the Conservatives and they mess the country up financially. Angrily people vote in the Liberals and rejoice until a scandal breaks. As a result, they turn and vote Conservative... repeat, repeat.
We are creatures of comfort, and eventually (and surprisingly quickly) we'll be right back at life as if nothing happened these past couple years. Any lessons and new habits will be forgotten in record speed.
Anecdotally, Covid hasn't changed my schedule or interaction with coworkers (essential business), but whereas I would usually get some kind of cold or flu in previous winters, I haven't gotten so much as a sniffle the entire last year. It's either the masks or increased hand washing...
And the social distancing. It's not just about your coworkers, but about all the people they interact with. Each of you is still seeing each other, but (presumably) seeing far fewer other people.
The protective measures you're each taking reduces the chance that the entire crew will get what any one of you gets. But I think the big win is likely the herd immunity wherein each of you has a lower chance of bringing it in to the office in the first place. We've all collectively reduced the R below 1 for a lot of things, and that has an exponentially beneficial effect in exactly the same way that having R above 1 was so dangerous.
The protective measures you're each taking reduces the chance that the entire crew will get what any one of you gets. But I think the big win is likely the herd immunity wherein each of you has a lower chance of bringing it in to the office in the first place. We've all collectively reduced the R below 1 for a lot of things, and that has an exponentially beneficial effect in exactly the same way that having R above 1 was so dangerous.
It's worth pointing out that seasonal flu tends to have a rather low R0 to begin with, especially as compared to coronaviruses and other respiratory infections.
Unlike some others in this thread here I'm probably less sanguine about a permanent change in habits. The Americas and many European countries are still as individualistic as ever, and have manifestly faired rather poorly considering their wealth. What is most likely to change, IMO, is efficacy of flu vaccines. Marginally better efficacy and marginally more voluntary vaccinations may be sufficient to push the already low R0 to below 1 at scale.
Unlike some others in this thread here I'm probably less sanguine about a permanent change in habits. The Americas and many European countries are still as individualistic as ever, and have manifestly faired rather poorly considering their wealth. What is most likely to change, IMO, is efficacy of flu vaccines. Marginally better efficacy and marginally more voluntary vaccinations may be sufficient to push the already low R0 to below 1 at scale.
I just hope all the people who "don't get the flu vaccine because they never get the flu" will actually start getting vaccinated.
To those people, odds are you don't get the flu because enough people around you did get vaccinated. And also, you're just getting lucky. You may have a better immune system than average, but you are not immune.
In 2018, the CDC says >490k were hospitalized and >34k died from the flu. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
It's a serious matter, yet people just brushed it off and came in to work/school sick as a dog. Heck, I remember having to do this with colds in elementary school... It was either: I show up horribly sick, or my grades must suffer. (No, there was no way out of it. Simply punish those trying to protect their community from themselves. Zero tolerance for real life.)
To those people, odds are you don't get the flu because enough people around you did get vaccinated. And also, you're just getting lucky. You may have a better immune system than average, but you are not immune.
In 2018, the CDC says >490k were hospitalized and >34k died from the flu. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
It's a serious matter, yet people just brushed it off and came in to work/school sick as a dog. Heck, I remember having to do this with colds in elementary school... It was either: I show up horribly sick, or my grades must suffer. (No, there was no way out of it. Simply punish those trying to protect their community from themselves. Zero tolerance for real life.)
There just isn’t incentive for most people in jobs to take a sick day. Deadlines don’t get moved if you take 2 sick days. Meeting rescheduling is a pain, etc. There’s just not incentive alignment.
We may never have another “flu season” again. To be honest this is how it always should have been- this change in behavior is long overdue but sometimes it takes a crisis to get people to reevaluate their behavior.