If the Lab-Leak Theory Is Right, What’s Next?(theatlantic.com)
theatlantic.com
If the Lab-Leak Theory Is Right, What’s Next?
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/chinese-lab-leak-hypothesis-coronavirus/619000/
154 comments
The response to "conspiracy theories" is: show us your proof. Otherwise we will wait to give it any credibility. If time and data prove out your claims, then we will give it the proper attention it has earned. (ie, science > social media)
The problem with this is who is the arbiter on what is, or isn’t, a conspiracy theory. The main stream media in the US seem to innately believe certain claims, without evidence, while also portraying other claims as “conspiracy theories.”
In the case of covid there seemed to be universal belief in the media that covid originated in animals. There was no proof of this claim.
It’s one thing to just simply pick a claim and believe in it. It’s quite another to attack people who are providing an alternative claim.
The same thing rings true with regard to what is a “correct” thing to say. “China Virus” is apparently repugnant. However, naming the country of origin for variants is not. South African Variant is fine.
In the case of covid there seemed to be universal belief in the media that covid originated in animals. There was no proof of this claim.
It’s one thing to just simply pick a claim and believe in it. It’s quite another to attack people who are providing an alternative claim.
The same thing rings true with regard to what is a “correct” thing to say. “China Virus” is apparently repugnant. However, naming the country of origin for variants is not. South African Variant is fine.
You are the arbiter. Does the theory hold water? Is there evidence to support it? Is it self-consistent? Conspiracy theories often times fail under scrutiny because for example the amount of people they would involve. Think about the flat earth conspiracy: it would require that every airline pilot, every sailor, every satellite image processor, etc. all be in on the theory. It would only take one of them to show us photo/video/etc. evidence that the earth is in fact flat. And this isn’t just today but over thousands of years. Someone would have come forward by now. I believe there is even a formula for how much time it takes for someone to blow the whistle based on the size of the conspiracy. I think it estimated that the fake moon landing would have become public knowledge within four years.
As for origins of COVID, I personally believe there is a good chance it came from bats, but also a good chance that it came from a lab experiment that had accidentally escaped. The theory that it was deliberately developed as a bio weapon or that it was released on purpose does not seem to hold water as there are no clear plausible beneficiaries of that action.
As for origins of COVID, I personally believe there is a good chance it came from bats, but also a good chance that it came from a lab experiment that had accidentally escaped. The theory that it was deliberately developed as a bio weapon or that it was released on purpose does not seem to hold water as there are no clear plausible beneficiaries of that action.
> The main stream media in the US seem to innately believe certain claims, without evidence, while also portraying other claims as “conspiracy theories.”
You can replace "main stream media" with any other group as well. (for example, the group that think masks and vaccines are part of a "plandemic" to undermine our economy and track everyone via 5g towers controlled by lizard people, while giving credence to medications recommended by politicians rather than medical professionals)
You can replace "main stream media" with any other group as well. (for example, the group that think masks and vaccines are part of a "plandemic" to undermine our economy and track everyone via 5g towers controlled by lizard people, while giving credence to medications recommended by politicians rather than medical professionals)
Other “groups” don’t have national broadcasts and major websites.
The vast majority of English media is published by 2-3 countries, whatever they believe or are incentivized by their governments/capital-class to publish usually become the mainstream narratives.
This centralized system of information dissemination has tremendous flaws.
This centralized system of information dissemination has tremendous flaws.
But many dismissed the idea outright, not on the basis of lack of proof, but on the basis of some outrage (or implying the existence of counter-proof, 'debunking', or at least consensus of expert opinion)
Further more, the media needs to maintain that standard themselves:
- No more anonymous, un-interrogatable sources;
- No accusations of bad motive (e.g. racism) without proof - such as those implied of the conspiracy theorists.
Further more, the media needs to maintain that standard themselves:
- No more anonymous, un-interrogatable sources;
- No accusations of bad motive (e.g. racism) without proof - such as those implied of the conspiracy theorists.
Both of those standards would invalidate many of the claims we're discussing as well.
I think GPs framework is more aimed at the media and not a message board of pseudonymous nerds. There's an ocean of power on one side and relatively near none on the other.
The claim that the virus originated in the lab? Yes.
The claim that the virus might have originated in the lab? No.
The claim that the virus might have originated in the lab? No.
>> The response to "conspiracy theories" is: show us your proof
No, the response was to ridicule people making those arguments and to censor them.
Like Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post telling Ted Cruz last May:
"I fear @tedcruz missed the scientific animation in the video that shows how it is virtually impossible for this virus jump from the lab. Or the many interviews with actual scientists. We deal in facts, and viewers can judge for themselves."
Or like "Twitter bans Chinese virologist claiming that coronavirus was made in a lab".
As usual, best summed up by the Babylon Bee:
"World-renowned fact-checking website Snopes has unveiled a brand new fact check rating called "False For Now." This will allow them to provide a rating for claims that are just conspiracy theories uttered by deranged far-right people until they later turn out to be true".
No, the response was to ridicule people making those arguments and to censor them.
Like Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post telling Ted Cruz last May:
"I fear @tedcruz missed the scientific animation in the video that shows how it is virtually impossible for this virus jump from the lab. Or the many interviews with actual scientists. We deal in facts, and viewers can judge for themselves."
Or like "Twitter bans Chinese virologist claiming that coronavirus was made in a lab".
As usual, best summed up by the Babylon Bee:
"World-renowned fact-checking website Snopes has unveiled a brand new fact check rating called "False For Now." This will allow them to provide a rating for claims that are just conspiracy theories uttered by deranged far-right people until they later turn out to be true".
To be fair, they said the response "to .. is" as in "it ( ought to / should ) be" - not "was"
Point stands though. Lacking the ability to argue the case, the press often derive authority from the ability to slander, censor and humiliate.
Point stands though. Lacking the ability to argue the case, the press often derive authority from the ability to slander, censor and humiliate.
Please show citations of that then, of mainstream media doing the: slander, censor and humiliate, instead of just reporting one side or the other as usual.
Heck, US has a mature president now even acknowledging there are two major competing hypotheses. Seeing leaders embracing uncertainty is rare, so it seems humanity is going through a learning phase right now, having to face up to uncertainty and fear.
Heck, US has a mature president now even acknowledging there are two major competing hypotheses. Seeing leaders embracing uncertainty is rare, so it seems humanity is going through a learning phase right now, having to face up to uncertainty and fear.
What do you mean by "citation"? An academic reference, or an example?
There are examples of these in these comments, so if you doubt that these things are true (and cannot find examples in this thread) then please narrow it down to one - this isn't a wikipedia articles, theres as much burden on you to disprove something you disagree with, and you haven't yet stated you disagree with anything.
There are examples of these in these comments, so if you doubt that these things are true (and cannot find examples in this thread) then please narrow it down to one - this isn't a wikipedia articles, theres as much burden on you to disprove something you disagree with, and you haven't yet stated you disagree with anything.
An example. I didn't find anything concrete in the comments.
So there's nothing further to discuss.
So there's nothing further to discuss.
The media didn’t ask for proof of animal origin… in fact the media largely ran with animal origin with zero evidence to back that up.
There’s always been more evidence to support the lab leak theory for those paying attention.
There’s always been more evidence to support the lab leak theory for those paying attention.
According to the article, it's both:
"researchers had assembled an archive of cave-bat-borne coronaviruses"
Researchers were studying viruses that had an animal origin. The lab leak would be from not following proper safety protocols.
"researchers had assembled an archive of cave-bat-borne coronaviruses"
Researchers were studying viruses that had an animal origin. The lab leak would be from not following proper safety protocols.
Ah yes, the phrasing tricks have been a media favorite when discussing covid origins… conflating lab origin with natural origin through the almost certainty that the viral material used at the WIV originated in nature is pure intellectual dishonesty.
What people don't realize is there is an overlap between 'originating from nature" and "originating from a foreign attack", both share a non-lab-leak origin but the latter is not even considered in the countries (US, UK, Japan, etc) with a history of using bio-weapons against citizens/civilians.
Mistaking one for the other is highly probable.
Mistaking one for the other is highly probable.
The problem with "more evidence" is that much of it has been hearsay. Person A tells person B something. Person B repeats person A's claim to person C. Person A then talks to person C, and person C says it must be true because they've heard it from multiple sources.
I have no doubt there's good evidence pointing to the lab leak origin, but virtually everything I've been exposed to over the last year are typically rumors or graphics shared on social media. Hearing something a lot doesn't give it additional credibility.
I have no doubt there's good evidence pointing to the lab leak origin, but virtually everything I've been exposed to over the last year are typically rumors or graphics shared on social media. Hearing something a lot doesn't give it additional credibility.
To be fair, the lab-theory was hijacked from the beginning by conspiracy-believers who told everyone it was a bio-weapon and released on purpose. The idea of an accidential leak of reasearch-material is poisoned till today, because any hint of a proof will be fuel for the nutheads. And at the moment there many nutheads and racists aiming at asians because of the pandemia.
On the other hand, dismissing totally the idea to fight against conspiracy-believers and then go back on your words because of new evidence is exactly what creates more conspiracy-believers. An example of this was the WHO insisting that masks were useless and then telling everyone to wear masks. This is how you lose trust.
Part of the solution would be to say something along the lines of "Right now we don't have enough evidence to make a statement about the origin of the virus, so we'll refrain from talking about it until further evidence is brought to light.".
Part of the solution would be to say something along the lines of "Right now we don't have enough evidence to make a statement about the origin of the virus, so we'll refrain from talking about it until further evidence is brought to light.".
If you listen to sane people, they are saying just that.
Though, media will report what various individuals and agencies report, and they will contradict eachother.
Though, media will report what various individuals and agencies report, and they will contradict eachother.
They are, however these days they don't have much reach. The problem is that public institutions are losing trust, and on one hand they deserve it, but on the other hand people are preying on this paranoia.
There probably were conspiracy theorists doing just that. But there were also articles like the one by Jim Geraghty (https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-china-tra...). Compare what he wrote to what is in the recent Atlantic article.
Geraghty:
> And none of the above is definitive proof that COVID-19 originated from a bat at either the Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention or the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Definitive proof would require much broader access to information about what happened in those facilities in the time period before the epidemic in the city.
> But it is a remarkable coincidence that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was researching Ebola and SARS-associated coronaviruses in bats before the pandemic outbreak, and that in the month when Wuhan doctors were treating the first patients of COVID-19, the institute announced in a hiring notice that “a large number of new bat and rodent new viruses have been discovered and identified.” And the fact that the Chinese government spent six weeks insisting that COVID-19 could not be spread from person to person means that its denials about Wuhan laboratories cannot be accepted without independent verification.
Engber:
> Arguments in favor of the “lab-leak hypothesis” remain grounded, as they ever were, in the mere and highly suspicious fact that a coronavirus likely borne by bats, likely from a cave in southwest China, emerged 18 months ago, quite suddenly, in a city very far from southwest China—where researchers had assembled an archive of cave-bat-borne coronaviruses.
As Geraghty recounts yesterday (https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/even-xavier-...), many in the media, rather than assessing the facts themselves, just resulted to name calling against a conservative-leaning but measured writer. I also haven't seen Geraghty (and again, other more measured writers) claim to have definitive proof of the lab-leak theory (as some conspiracy theorists might claim), only that it is a possibility that shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. It is illogical, irresponsible and unscientific to say "well, this theory was picked up by racists, therefore we should dismiss it" rather than evaluating a possibility on it's own merits.
Geraghty:
> And none of the above is definitive proof that COVID-19 originated from a bat at either the Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention or the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Definitive proof would require much broader access to information about what happened in those facilities in the time period before the epidemic in the city.
> But it is a remarkable coincidence that the Wuhan Institute of Virology was researching Ebola and SARS-associated coronaviruses in bats before the pandemic outbreak, and that in the month when Wuhan doctors were treating the first patients of COVID-19, the institute announced in a hiring notice that “a large number of new bat and rodent new viruses have been discovered and identified.” And the fact that the Chinese government spent six weeks insisting that COVID-19 could not be spread from person to person means that its denials about Wuhan laboratories cannot be accepted without independent verification.
Engber:
> Arguments in favor of the “lab-leak hypothesis” remain grounded, as they ever were, in the mere and highly suspicious fact that a coronavirus likely borne by bats, likely from a cave in southwest China, emerged 18 months ago, quite suddenly, in a city very far from southwest China—where researchers had assembled an archive of cave-bat-borne coronaviruses.
As Geraghty recounts yesterday (https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/even-xavier-...), many in the media, rather than assessing the facts themselves, just resulted to name calling against a conservative-leaning but measured writer. I also haven't seen Geraghty (and again, other more measured writers) claim to have definitive proof of the lab-leak theory (as some conspiracy theorists might claim), only that it is a possibility that shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. It is illogical, irresponsible and unscientific to say "well, this theory was picked up by racists, therefore we should dismiss it" rather than evaluating a possibility on it's own merits.
I do find it interesting that the idea of a foreign country dropping covid in China is not even considered.
It's not even considered by the people who are aware of the history of mass anti-Sino biological warfare that took place around WW2 and the decades after.
It's not even considered by the people who are aware of the history of mass anti-Sino biological warfare that took place around WW2 and the decades after.
As the Geraghty article I cited mentions, the Wuhan Institute of Virology leak theory has at best circumstantial evidence, and very well might not be true. And in any case, the claim is not that it was intentional. While not impossible, there is currently zero evidence today that the virus came from anywhere else. There is zero evidence of any cases anywhere before those in China (indeed, before those in Wuhan). China is not known for having lax border crossings, making smuggling in vials unlikely. Wuhan is not close to a border, if someone came to Wuhan already infected, there would be a trail of infected people from the border to Wuhan, or other people would have been infected on a plane if a human carrier brought it in. If someone brought it in during the World Military Games as you seem to think in other posts, the timeline doesn't make sense, since the first cases of COVID weren't for at least a month after, in November (and besides the possible cases by the people who work at WIV, most cases started in December). Your hypothesis does not fit the data.
So I ask you: what evidence, even circumstantial, do you have for making the claim you do?
So I ask you: what evidence, even circumstantial, do you have for making the claim you do?
My understanding is a few labs, including one in North Carolina, were working on this virus and shared samples with labs around the world. Unfortunately, these viruses are now easy enough for a small team anywhere in the world to create with the widely available tools....transporting a payload across borders is trivially easy.
Motives... the Chinese have no incentive to maliciously release a virus in their own country during an event that is tied to national pride and acts as a showcase of Chinese domestic development in Wuhan. The western warhawks on the other hand have a tremendous interest in obstructing any Chinese military cooperation with its peers. The potential motives seem quite clear...with the nice side effect of disrupting Chinese trade as the world recoils from a new downside risk of globalization.
The US and its allies have a long history of biological warfare against economic competitors. Even the Japanese bio-warfare campaign in WW2 China was supported, partially funded, and fully pardoned by the US/UK...people and history books tend to forget/omit that Imperial Japan received all of its oil and much of its supplies from the US. These supplies being cutoff (aka treaty violation) without FDR's/Churchill's knowledge are what resulted in the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.
During periods of uncertainty, it's good to remember that America's left hand doesn't always know what its right hand is doing... and vice versa.
I tend to think history is in the process of rhyming again.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_Ei_1644
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaimingjie_germ_weapon_attac...
Motives... the Chinese have no incentive to maliciously release a virus in their own country during an event that is tied to national pride and acts as a showcase of Chinese domestic development in Wuhan. The western warhawks on the other hand have a tremendous interest in obstructing any Chinese military cooperation with its peers. The potential motives seem quite clear...with the nice side effect of disrupting Chinese trade as the world recoils from a new downside risk of globalization.
The US and its allies have a long history of biological warfare against economic competitors. Even the Japanese bio-warfare campaign in WW2 China was supported, partially funded, and fully pardoned by the US/UK...people and history books tend to forget/omit that Imperial Japan received all of its oil and much of its supplies from the US. These supplies being cutoff (aka treaty violation) without FDR's/Churchill's knowledge are what resulted in the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.
During periods of uncertainty, it's good to remember that America's left hand doesn't always know what its right hand is doing... and vice versa.
I tend to think history is in the process of rhyming again.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_Ei_1644
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaimingjie_germ_weapon_attac...
To be fair, you are exactly the type that the parent comment was referring to... People that effortlessly dismiss reasonable ideas. You add smears of racism on top of it to make sure the side that you disagree with is hated. Please reflect as the parent comment suggests.
Precisely. "This theory is popular with crazy racists" leads to "if you believe this then I am forced to assume that you're a crazy racist and disparage you accordingly" pretty effortlessly in 2021. This sort of bad-faith ad hominem is the real problem.
You can say that, but I've heard the diatribes that the "China virus" was because they were playing with 5G and viruses and it escaped into bats and those chinamen ate the bats and...(cringe). Just go look up the conspiracies if you think I'm out of line - this is the mild version.
Most of the mouthbreathers talking earlier about the "China virus" labs was predominately with pro-trump, anti-vaxxer, anti-masker individuals (well, starting with trump first). It was political grandstanding at its best, combined with 'us vs them' mentality, and a hefty scooping of conspiracy theory. So yes, the bulk of us thinking peoples justly figured this was what it appeared to be: yet another Anti-Chinese diatribe done by a white nationalist conspiracy nut (aka: trump).
Most of the mouthbreathers talking earlier about the "China virus" labs was predominately with pro-trump, anti-vaxxer, anti-masker individuals (well, starting with trump first). It was political grandstanding at its best, combined with 'us vs them' mentality, and a hefty scooping of conspiracy theory. So yes, the bulk of us thinking peoples justly figured this was what it appeared to be: yet another Anti-Chinese diatribe done by a white nationalist conspiracy nut (aka: trump).
This post is a great example of the prevailing "everything is political" mentality. You take an empirical question that has a definitive answer (whether or not we'll ever have that answer) and turn it into a political issue.
To you, a theory is invalid if your political enemies embrace that theory.
To you, a theory is invalid if your political enemies embrace that theory.
Of course it's political. The claim is "Chinese military virology lab was experimenting with highly infectious material, and it escaped into the general population."
And back in October 2020, this was published: https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/item/2... . Is this right, or wrong?
This whole pandemic could have been handled as "We are following the medical and scientific establishment on best handling of the pandemic", but that wasn't the case. Instead, we have US states that have 'declared' Covid done, or worse yet have states that forbid companies providing proof of vaccination. The simple requirement of wearing masks, was rarely enforced. Quite a lot of assaults happened because workers at stores said something.
The politicians could have moved out of the way for science. They didnt, and they doubled down. And that got more people killed.
And back in October 2020, this was published: https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/item/2... . Is this right, or wrong?
This whole pandemic could have been handled as "We are following the medical and scientific establishment on best handling of the pandemic", but that wasn't the case. Instead, we have US states that have 'declared' Covid done, or worse yet have states that forbid companies providing proof of vaccination. The simple requirement of wearing masks, was rarely enforced. Quite a lot of assaults happened because workers at stores said something.
The politicians could have moved out of the way for science. They didnt, and they doubled down. And that got more people killed.
"Where did covid come from?" is not a poliitcal question. It's an empirical question.
Your decision to turn it into a political question is a dead-end that prevents you from thinking.
Your decision to turn it into a political question is a dead-end that prevents you from thinking.
Convenient that you ignore my link:
https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/item/2...
-------------------------
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
ODNI News Release No. 11-20
April 30, 2020 Intelligence Community Statement on Origins of COVID-19
WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Office of the Director of National Intelligence today issued the following Intelligence Community (IC) statement:
“The entire Intelligence Community has been consistently providing critical support to U.S. policymakers and those responding to the COVID-19 virus, which originated in China. The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified.
“As we do in all crises, the Community’s experts respond by surging resources and producing critical intelligence on issues vital to U.S. national security. The IC will continue to rigorously examine emerging information and intelligence to determine whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan.”
-------------------------
Stress on the quote: "The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified."
So, is it for scientific or political reasons you are ignoring this?
https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/item/2...
-------------------------
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
ODNI News Release No. 11-20
April 30, 2020 Intelligence Community Statement on Origins of COVID-19
WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Office of the Director of National Intelligence today issued the following Intelligence Community (IC) statement:
“The entire Intelligence Community has been consistently providing critical support to U.S. policymakers and those responding to the COVID-19 virus, which originated in China. The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified.
“As we do in all crises, the Community’s experts respond by surging resources and producing critical intelligence on issues vital to U.S. national security. The IC will continue to rigorously examine emerging information and intelligence to determine whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan.”
-------------------------
Stress on the quote: "The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified."
So, is it for scientific or political reasons you are ignoring this?
Virologists (or the DNI...or anybody) cannot, in fact, look at a viral genome and tell whether it evolved naturally or in a lab. The reason these people make these claims is because they, like you, see everything as political.
> a white nationalist conspiracy nut (aka: trump)
Sure, Trump seems prone to accepting conspiracy theories (or at least acts like it) - but why "white nationalist"? Seems like people like to sprinkle in these accusations when they thing their audience won't question it - but the evidence is a weak string of unsubstantiated guilt-by-associations.
Sure, Trump seems prone to accepting conspiracy theories (or at least acts like it) - but why "white nationalist"? Seems like people like to sprinkle in these accusations when they thing their audience won't question it - but the evidence is a weak string of unsubstantiated guilt-by-associations.
What about "America First", which supported Weimar Republic in 30's, isn't nationalistic?
The idea was good (hit mark audience that needed respite from all the "great globalization"), but the execution was about treason ("Trump First").
The idea was good (hit mark audience that needed respite from all the "great globalization"), but the execution was about treason ("Trump First").
And the "white" part?
Not speaking for others, but having fringe groups as security during official business, doesn't speak well of what other uses there might be for such groups.
That's fairly speculative for an explicit declaration that Trump is a white nationalist, and very much guilt-by-association.
Also, I don't really consider a "white nationalist" to be a "nationalist" by the usual sense of the word (applying to nation), but rather a rarer, more abstract sense of the word (applying abstractly to "groups" such as race). White nationalism isn't necessarily compatible with race-defined nationalism e.g. if you would prioritise foreign whites over domestic non-whites.
Also, I don't really consider a "white nationalist" to be a "nationalist" by the usual sense of the word (applying to nation), but rather a rarer, more abstract sense of the word (applying abstractly to "groups" such as race). White nationalism isn't necessarily compatible with race-defined nationalism e.g. if you would prioritise foreign whites over domestic non-whites.
It must be speculative, that's the entire purpose of associating with such groups and using them as political ammunition. Doesn't stop these people from throwing them under the bus later, if the bet doesn't pan out.
Your comment makes mostrovs point in the comment above.
Easy to say that. But when you tear these claims down, they started with anything but factual or substantial.
1. COVID wasnt caused by 5G. Nor vice versa.
2. We've seen MERS, SARS, and other coronavirus diseases previously in the region. This isn't the only one, and wont be the last.
3. "Chinaman virus" is a point that comes from racism. It only highlights racist beliefs, and is no way any proof. (Why wasnt the "Spanish Flu" called "Kansas Kough" - it started on a Kansas military base?)
4. The most vehement supports of this conspiracy also loudly proclaim that masks don't work, and the vaccine is microchipped.
5. Masks work, of different efficacy depending on filter levels
6. No, the vaccine has no microchips.
And if you want to dig deeper, go watch the "Plandemic" video. That's an hour or so of conspiracy, including the elites infected the plebes to make more money.
When 1 conspiracy is chopped off, 2 take its place.
1. COVID wasnt caused by 5G. Nor vice versa.
2. We've seen MERS, SARS, and other coronavirus diseases previously in the region. This isn't the only one, and wont be the last.
3. "Chinaman virus" is a point that comes from racism. It only highlights racist beliefs, and is no way any proof. (Why wasnt the "Spanish Flu" called "Kansas Kough" - it started on a Kansas military base?)
4. The most vehement supports of this conspiracy also loudly proclaim that masks don't work, and the vaccine is microchipped.
5. Masks work, of different efficacy depending on filter levels
6. No, the vaccine has no microchips.
And if you want to dig deeper, go watch the "Plandemic" video. That's an hour or so of conspiracy, including the elites infected the plebes to make more money.
When 1 conspiracy is chopped off, 2 take its place.
Constructing an extraordinarily elaborate strawman does not make your beating up of that strawman argument any more impressive. Plenty of reasonable people simply asked "isn't it possible a lab with a history of safety issues studying coronaviruses made a mistake" and were immediately hit with these sorts of disingenuous guilt by association arguments.
Smears, guilt by association, accusations of racism: this is what You chose to focus on and reject the lab leak theory. You didn't listen to the facts, the issues that seemed strange. The stunning thing is that you continue to cling to smears and accusations of racism as reasonable regarding this topic.
Where exactly did I dismiss the Idea? Maybe you should learn to understand how people behave and what responsability is.
BTW https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56218684
BTW https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56218684
This has been the saddest part of the pandemic to me. The epistemology of health policy is completely broken - fully reliant on arguments from authority, impervious to contrary evidence, initial beliefs clutched onto until the bitter end. Opinion makers are unable to distinguish between entertaining an idea and embracing it.
This lead to predictable debacles on mask usage, airborne spread, everyone's pet theories of innate population immunity, seasonality of the virus, virus origins, etc.
And yet - there are zero calls for introspection, blameless post-mortems. Nobody seems to care.
This lead to predictable debacles on mask usage, airborne spread, everyone's pet theories of innate population immunity, seasonality of the virus, virus origins, etc.
And yet - there are zero calls for introspection, blameless post-mortems. Nobody seems to care.
This is just "bread and circus". Those who look deeper down will see more going on underneath the layers of policymaking. Though, the real workers will need support for new ideas and improvements later.
tragically underrated post
i view the last decade (perhaps two) as a complete shattering of nearly all epistemology and social trust
we are all now wandering in a forest of mirrors
or perhaps, rather, this is not a new condition, and we merely understand it
i view the last decade (perhaps two) as a complete shattering of nearly all epistemology and social trust
we are all now wandering in a forest of mirrors
or perhaps, rather, this is not a new condition, and we merely understand it
Nobody expects the Spanish I^Hpandemic, that only happens once every 100 years or so. This should be expected, and the previous administration did everything to demolish whatever was left of pandemic response teams and plans, before it hit.
Media’s role is to a) entertain us, or b) inform us.
Under a: say whatever gets you clicks. Period.
Under b: hypotheses and theories cannot be reported as truths. Hard evidence is needed. There are two ways a virus evolves- naturally or guided/engineered. Without proof of the latter it is safe to assume former. No humility needed. If/when we have evidence of latter we can now report that.
Under a: say whatever gets you clicks. Period.
Under b: hypotheses and theories cannot be reported as truths. Hard evidence is needed. There are two ways a virus evolves- naturally or guided/engineered. Without proof of the latter it is safe to assume former. No humility needed. If/when we have evidence of latter we can now report that.
There's legitimate stories where there's a lot of smoke, and a lot of credible speculation (the Epstein story and lab-leak theory are two good examples). The problem is that these get coopted by qanon and affiliated groups and start to become less credible in the public eye as a result. There's some tragic irony to the fact that potentially well-meaning crackpots are being used as a smokescreen for those who are actually doing wrong.
This is not what happens.
What happens is, people discuss something plausible for which there exists circumstantial evidence (e.g. lab leak theory). Then, the media, left and right, pretends it has defininitve answers and uses "q anon" as an excuse to claim the plausible theory is wrong.
What happens is, people discuss something plausible for which there exists circumstantial evidence (e.g. lab leak theory). Then, the media, left and right, pretends it has defininitve answers and uses "q anon" as an excuse to claim the plausible theory is wrong.
Why can't both be true? Actual qanon types absolutely latch on to stories like this-- kind of a broken clock situation.
Why do we care about q anon? Why has this tiny group of flat-earthers (at least half of whom are probably screwing around on the internet) become nationally known?
Because there's a hell of a lot of them. They also have a tendency to do things that effect others; like vote, and commit armed insurrections of the capitol.
There aren't a lot of them. Several hundred invalids rioting is not a lot.
The left wants to pretend that there are all these loony q anon believers just like the right wants to pretend all left-wingers are antifa anarchists. In reality, these are tiny groups that most Americans find utterly repulsive. And, perversely, the media's breathless coverage of these groups is boosting their membership.
The left wants to pretend that there are all these loony q anon believers just like the right wants to pretend all left-wingers are antifa anarchists. In reality, these are tiny groups that most Americans find utterly repulsive. And, perversely, the media's breathless coverage of these groups is boosting their membership.
There definitively are a lot of them
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/study-finds-...
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/study-finds-...
Because they are among the most rabid supporters of the previous president. I don't think it's outlandish to say there was a positive feedback loop between the two, and it directly affected both policy and messaging, including public health. Just look at the resistance to getting the vaccine among these people - it threatens the herd immunity that is one of the goals of the vaccine program. This is due in no small part to the mixed messaging from the prior administration.
You're making a claim that vaccine hesitancy is about being a rabid conspiracy theorist (or "mixed messaging). I don't think you're right.
People don't like getting vaccines for rational reasons like: they don't like getting shots (much less 2), they're worried about side effects (which are real), they don't trust new technology (like mrna vaccines), and so on.
I think people should get vaccinated. But I understand why someone wouldn't and it has nothing to do with believing in q anon. It's like paying your taxes: I don't like paying my taxes but I do it because 1. I drive on the roads and 2. it's illegal not to. If not paying taxes was legal, I hope I'd still pay (because I drive on the roads) but a lot of people wouldn't (even though they should) for reasons that have nothing to do with being a conspiracy theorist.
People don't like getting vaccines for rational reasons like: they don't like getting shots (much less 2), they're worried about side effects (which are real), they don't trust new technology (like mrna vaccines), and so on.
I think people should get vaccinated. But I understand why someone wouldn't and it has nothing to do with believing in q anon. It's like paying your taxes: I don't like paying my taxes but I do it because 1. I drive on the roads and 2. it's illegal not to. If not paying taxes was legal, I hope I'd still pay (because I drive on the roads) but a lot of people wouldn't (even though they should) for reasons that have nothing to do with being a conspiracy theorist.
Comments like this (and many others in this thread) are so indicative to me of the bubble a lot of tech people live in. I personally know several people who are extremely vulnerable to the coronavirus (by age, location, and preexisting medical conditions) who are refusing the vaccine based on the premise that it was designed somehow to kill/sterilize/control them. Spend some time sleuthing on Facebook and you'll find groups with tens of thousands of people with this kind of mindset. I think there's a tendency for people on HN in particular to downplay this phenomenon because it directly implicates big tech in a very big way-- social media is a veritable incubator for these ideas.
Maybe both are true? ;)
This isn't about the public eye, primarily. It's about the "expert" voices in media who report on these things.
Most of what can reasonably called the mainstream media was misrepresenting lab leak theories as racist QAnon ramblings for a year before it entered the "it's okay to believe this" realm. This kind of dismissal ends up being the default mode for any idea which doesn't fall within a very narrow approved view of reality.
Most of what can reasonably called the mainstream media was misrepresenting lab leak theories as racist QAnon ramblings for a year before it entered the "it's okay to believe this" realm. This kind of dismissal ends up being the default mode for any idea which doesn't fall within a very narrow approved view of reality.
Still waiting for the actual evidence...
the media has an interest in being right with their reporting. they won't apologise and say they were wrong; why would their customers continue reading & sharing their content if they're so fallible?
it's perverted interests and motivations.
it's perverted interests and motivations.
Respected media outlets frequently post retractions. That’s part of what makes them respectable, and attracts readers who are looking for honest reporting.
> Well, first and foremost, perhaps the media could pause and reflect on their treatment of anyone who raised the lab leak hypothesis for the past year.
Most didn't stop at "maybe this escaped from the lab in Wuhan", but went down the real rabbit hole accusing the Chinese government of manufacturing and releasing a bioweapon.
In any case there won't be any proof ever for any origin theory, the Chinese government has made certain of that.
Most didn't stop at "maybe this escaped from the lab in Wuhan", but went down the real rabbit hole accusing the Chinese government of manufacturing and releasing a bioweapon.
In any case there won't be any proof ever for any origin theory, the Chinese government has made certain of that.
>Most didn't stop at "maybe this escaped from the lab in Wuhan", but went down the real rabbit hole accusing the Chinese government of manufacturing and releasing a bioweapon.
I don't think it's fair to say that "most" of these people thought it was deliberately released, whether or not they believed it was a bioweapon.
I don't think it's fair to say that "most" of these people thought it was deliberately released, whether or not they believed it was a bioweapon.
This is precisely why it is so touchy. There’s been a strong correlation between people who believe lab leak and people who believe the Chinese were doing something bad.
As an anecdote, someone recently asked me if we could tell if the COVID genome had come via animals/natural origin or engineered in some way. I said that most likely, yes that should be possible. Their immediate reaction was that this meant I didn’t believe in lab leak. That’s not at all what I had said
As an anecdote, someone recently asked me if we could tell if the COVID genome had come via animals/natural origin or engineered in some way. I said that most likely, yes that should be possible. Their immediate reaction was that this meant I didn’t believe in lab leak. That’s not at all what I had said
> if we could tell if the COVID genome had come via animals/natural origin or engineered in some way. I said that most likely, yes that should be possible
How?
How?
There's quite a comprehensive document compiled by a virologist on reddit discussing what the options for engineering would be, and what traces they would leave, I found it quite interesting: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kAHSEx9-eIyVIahczH8itHaUm9j...
No engineering, I want to underline it. This is not precluding a natural virus leak with, or without gain of function experiment involvement.
Current facts on the ground:
- 1st response to CoVID occurrence was certainly in Wuhan.
- The closest wild strain of CoVID happens in bats living thousand kilometres from Wuhan
- Wuhan had two institutes which, on record, did gain of function experiments on bat coronaviruses
- SARS had a record of lab escapes past the previous pandemic even without live animal hosts.
Current facts on the ground:
- 1st response to CoVID occurrence was certainly in Wuhan.
- The closest wild strain of CoVID happens in bats living thousand kilometres from Wuhan
- Wuhan had two institutes which, on record, did gain of function experiments on bat coronaviruses
- SARS had a record of lab escapes past the previous pandemic even without live animal hosts.
The story with the miners[1] has caught my attention. A group of miners fell ill w/ a SARS-like virus via bat droppings. In retrospect it sounds a heck of a lot like COVID. Wuhan was known to have investigated the case. Perhaps a researcher manages to get infected, or something like that.
[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7606707/
[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7606707/
garblegarble's link explains it better than I could, but the tl;dr is that there are patterns that occur with natural evolution. Messing with those patterns would look, well, unnatural.
I don't know why some people are so sure that it couldn't be from a lab. People research viruses in labs and it's not impossible that a virus could escape from such a lab. And China doesn't like bad press and likes to suppress it as they did with Dr. Li Wenliang.[1]
I'm not saying that I know that it did come from a lab, but to say it definitely didn't is just as silly in my opinion.
[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51364382
I'm not saying that I know that it did come from a lab, but to say it definitely didn't is just as silly in my opinion.
[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51364382
The answer is in the other comments. The reason the lab leak theory is rejected is because some people that believe in other theories that are not popular also believe in this one.
It's guilt by association. It has nothing to do with the merits of the case.
It's political. Trump accused the Chinese of negligence and/or intent. If Trump said it, then all left leaning folks rejected it outright as horrible and racist. Their hatred of him was so intense that they'd take the side of _anyone_ opposed to him, or that he opposed. Therefore, to be resolute in their hatred, they steadfastly demanded that it must not be from a lab.
>It's political. Trump accused the Chinese of negligence and/or intent. If Trump said it, then all left leaning folks rejected it outright as horrible and racist.
Another example: Just last year, we had Biden, Harris, and Pelosi all saying they won't trust any Trump vaccine (https://www.newsweek.com/anti-vaccine-covid-trust-skepticism...)
Another example: Just last year, we had Biden, Harris, and Pelosi all saying they won't trust any Trump vaccine (https://www.newsweek.com/anti-vaccine-covid-trust-skepticism...)
There are two different kinds of inquiry: one to learn lessons for avoiding this in the future, and one for assigning blame. Blame assignment gives motivation to destroy evidence and obstruct the inquiry. The only culture that seems to have managed to reliably achieve low-blame investigations is air crash investigation.
So there's basically three questions:
- was this virus a lab escape?
- if it was a lab escape, was that because it had been isolated from elsewhere, bred in the lab, or was it deliberately engineered for some purpose?
- regardless of origin, was the escape somehow intentional? This seems unlikely given that it was first a disaster for China and - like all bioweapons - cannot really be targeted. There has been no visible politics associated with this, so we could apply the Dr Strangelove argument: what good is a superweapon if you don't tell anyone about it?
And a question for the future:
- what is the minimum tech level for virus engineering? At what point can a random militant just 3D print themselves a plague with no co-conspirators? We're a long way off that, but I don't think HN is willing to bet on technology being intractable forever.
And for all of these:
- what real evidence do we have?
- if this were true, what would we do about it?
So there's basically three questions:
- was this virus a lab escape?
- if it was a lab escape, was that because it had been isolated from elsewhere, bred in the lab, or was it deliberately engineered for some purpose?
- regardless of origin, was the escape somehow intentional? This seems unlikely given that it was first a disaster for China and - like all bioweapons - cannot really be targeted. There has been no visible politics associated with this, so we could apply the Dr Strangelove argument: what good is a superweapon if you don't tell anyone about it?
And a question for the future:
- what is the minimum tech level for virus engineering? At what point can a random militant just 3D print themselves a plague with no co-conspirators? We're a long way off that, but I don't think HN is willing to bet on technology being intractable forever.
And for all of these:
- what real evidence do we have?
- if this were true, what would we do about it?
Framed that way, more important than investigating would be aiming there is a 50% likelihood that this came from a lab, and to introduce reforms as is it did. That does seem more productive than essentially a criminal investigation.
The problem it is not very useful if we don't know how it happened. The Wuhan lab is already highest security, and in fact, higher security than what was required for coronaviruses. I guess they already thought of the "generic" security measures.
For example, you will not take the same action if it is the result of someone intentionally taking the virus out or if there is something wrong with the ventilation system. And addressing both "just to be safe" will not help much it waste management turned out to be the problem.
For example, you will not take the same action if it is the result of someone intentionally taking the virus out or if there is something wrong with the ventilation system. And addressing both "just to be safe" will not help much it waste management turned out to be the problem.
This seems unlikely given that it was first a disaster for China
On that note, from the very beginning China's reaction appeared extreme and overbearing, but in hindsight it worked better than most other countries' responses. The question is... if other countries had known that it was from an accidental leak would they and the population in general have taken it much more seriously? I think they would have. If it were proven to be from a leak would there be less vaccine hesitancy? I think so too. The strongest contrarian argument against doing anything was always "it's just a flu" and some variation of "let nature take its course."
On that note, from the very beginning China's reaction appeared extreme and overbearing, but in hindsight it worked better than most other countries' responses. The question is... if other countries had known that it was from an accidental leak would they and the population in general have taken it much more seriously? I think they would have. If it were proven to be from a leak would there be less vaccine hesitancy? I think so too. The strongest contrarian argument against doing anything was always "it's just a flu" and some variation of "let nature take its course."
>On that note, from the very beginning China's reaction appeared extreme and overbearing
No, it actually did not. It was clear that they tried to hide it and downplay it in the beginning. But once the cat was out of the bag and you could see picture of clinics overcrowding, they figured out it as quite deadly. They were able to use both the lessons of SARS(due to which people were much more amenable to drastic measures) and being a totalitarian regime to suppress it.
No, it actually did not. It was clear that they tried to hide it and downplay it in the beginning. But once the cat was out of the bag and you could see picture of clinics overcrowding, they figured out it as quite deadly. They were able to use both the lessons of SARS(due to which people were much more amenable to drastic measures) and being a totalitarian regime to suppress it.
The source is irrelevant to to the virulence. We were able to measure the virulence from the start. That should be the guide for our response.
A natural virus could evolve to be very dangerous and a lab leak could give you a sore throat for a day. Origin != danger level.
A natural virus could evolve to be very dangerous and a lab leak could give you a sore throat for a day. Origin != danger level.
That's not what GP is saying.
Facts and figures are next to worthless when trying to motivate billions of people to do something. If people hear "Covid gives you flu symptoms", they aren't going to care. If people hear "Covid is an experimental virus that escaped from a lab", that's scary and people will care more.
Facts and figures are next to worthless when trying to motivate billions of people to do something. If people hear "Covid gives you flu symptoms", they aren't going to care. If people hear "Covid is an experimental virus that escaped from a lab", that's scary and people will care more.
Nah, the people who deny the severity of covid will do the same, because of their masters who downplay it for political purposes and for personal inconvenience. You can see it play out right now in a certain part of the political spectrum. "Covid is just a flu, don't need to risk a vaccine from it, but also it's a very dangerous virus released by Chyna".
> Blame assignment gives motivation to destroy evidence and obstruct the inquiry.
The problem with this angle is, ‘what if the destruction of evidence and obstruction of inquiry’ already happened? Then shouldn’t we blame destruction and obstruction?
The problem with this angle is, ‘what if the destruction of evidence and obstruction of inquiry’ already happened? Then shouldn’t we blame destruction and obstruction?
Well, you could, if you find evidence that the obstruction actually happened - and there's certainly obstruction coming from China, not really surprising in a non-free country. China can reasonably be blamed for that.
What you can't do is make up what would have been found if there had been evidence.
What you can't do is make up what would have been found if there had been evidence.
If it escaped a lab, via researchers accidentally infecting themselves and then started to spread, infecting a few people at the wet market as a cover might have happened. Or just fabricating evidence that it started there would work.
If it was a lab escape, the virus may have been from a number of sources, but one would think their end goal was to create a vaccine / study it.
If you look at this from a high level, there were countries that did better with this and countries that did worse. On the whole, democratic, free countries have trouble controlling what their citizens do. So this has a slight benefit for countries that have more “control” over their citizens or stricter laws. Everyone loses something though, so I don’t think it was intentional.
I would say the longest game would be to create a virus like this and the vaccine, vaccinate your people, then spread it and let the rest of the world deal with a pandemic. But then you still can’t control mutations. And I don’t think this was the case with this one at all.
If it’s true, what do we do about it?
Nothing. We can’t do anything. Saving face is likely more valued than the truth coming out, and it would potentially cause a revolution and great instability if this got out. It could be World War III and lead to more death.
What does America do next time?
Be a hell of a lot more aggressive with emerging illnesses and with our support. If it is a well known secret that they had a leak before but we don’t publicize it, other countries may be more welcoming to support and transparency if it happens again.
I think all we can do in this case is look forward and put things in place so it doesn’t happen again.
If it was a lab escape, the virus may have been from a number of sources, but one would think their end goal was to create a vaccine / study it.
If you look at this from a high level, there were countries that did better with this and countries that did worse. On the whole, democratic, free countries have trouble controlling what their citizens do. So this has a slight benefit for countries that have more “control” over their citizens or stricter laws. Everyone loses something though, so I don’t think it was intentional.
I would say the longest game would be to create a virus like this and the vaccine, vaccinate your people, then spread it and let the rest of the world deal with a pandemic. But then you still can’t control mutations. And I don’t think this was the case with this one at all.
If it’s true, what do we do about it?
Nothing. We can’t do anything. Saving face is likely more valued than the truth coming out, and it would potentially cause a revolution and great instability if this got out. It could be World War III and lead to more death.
What does America do next time?
Be a hell of a lot more aggressive with emerging illnesses and with our support. If it is a well known secret that they had a leak before but we don’t publicize it, other countries may be more welcoming to support and transparency if it happens again.
I think all we can do in this case is look forward and put things in place so it doesn’t happen again.
> what good is a superweapon if you don't tell anyone about it?
Off-topic, but that's a very big misconception, and also very common misconception. The bigger is the weapon, the more you gain to have it hidden not the other way around, moreover a superweapon like an H-bomb.
On-topic, it's very much clear that the COVID blame assignment is pretty much a proxy now for Western World's decision how to treat China now.
In case a smoking gun level proof is found, and it is any much blameable on Beijing, Western politicians will not be engaging China for the next 5-8 years, for sure.
Off-topic, but that's a very big misconception, and also very common misconception. The bigger is the weapon, the more you gain to have it hidden not the other way around, moreover a superweapon like an H-bomb.
On-topic, it's very much clear that the COVID blame assignment is pretty much a proxy now for Western World's decision how to treat China now.
In case a smoking gun level proof is found, and it is any much blameable on Beijing, Western politicians will not be engaging China for the next 5-8 years, for sure.
pjc50 says: "...it was first a disaster for China..."
Was it a disaster for China? A virus that primarily killed elderly and immune-compromised persons? The virus leaves China with a younger, healthier and more productive population. China's economic situation is better today than it was before the pandemic b/c they now have a reduced dependent population.
Mao Tse-tung said he did not fear nuclear holocaust b/c their huge population protected China from being wiped out. In contrast, other nations would be annihilated. That is an idea CCP members are familiar with:
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Mao%27s+comments+on+nuclear+war+po...
Was it a disaster for China? A virus that primarily killed elderly and immune-compromised persons? The virus leaves China with a younger, healthier and more productive population. China's economic situation is better today than it was before the pandemic b/c they now have a reduced dependent population.
Mao Tse-tung said he did not fear nuclear holocaust b/c their huge population protected China from being wiped out. In contrast, other nations would be annihilated. That is an idea CCP members are familiar with:
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Mao%27s+comments+on+nuclear+war+po...
"What do we do with this information?"
Tell the lab to stop gain of function research.
Any kind of gain of function research lab needs to run under continuous international supervision from now on.
International Space Station (ISS) could serve as a good analogy here: have scientists and auditors from many countries in there so that we know what goes on day-to-day.
After that? Hold any country doing independent gain of function research responsible (from potentially building a bioweapon)
Tell the lab to stop gain of function research.
Any kind of gain of function research lab needs to run under continuous international supervision from now on.
International Space Station (ISS) could serve as a good analogy here: have scientists and auditors from many countries in there so that we know what goes on day-to-day.
After that? Hold any country doing independent gain of function research responsible (from potentially building a bioweapon)
I think this would only work if already done research was shared. Otherwise you get in the situation where countries that had the resources to do this before oversight get access to knowledge they can deny others to obtain.
>> Tell the lab to stop gain of function research
"Please don't kill millions of people again".
"Please don't kill millions of people again".
> Tell the lab to stop gain of function research.
There's still no evidence, anywhere, that this lab did any gain of function research.
The only gain of function research that was know was done was on American soil with SARS-CoV-1 in mice, where it gained function in mice (and most likely lost function in humans).
There's still no evidence, anywhere, that this lab did any gain of function research.
The only gain of function research that was know was done was on American soil with SARS-CoV-1 in mice, where it gained function in mice (and most likely lost function in humans).
The fact is that the actions by the Chinese authorities in the early part of the epidemic created a global disaster. Lab leaks are a distraction from this fact - folks are obsessing over something that is possible (for which there is no real evidence that I have seen though) and ignoring the facts that having a massive party [1] in a city in the middle of a pandemic outbreak was criminally negligent.
[1] https://www.ft.com/content/fa83463a-4737-11ea-aeb3-955839e06...
[1] https://www.ft.com/content/fa83463a-4737-11ea-aeb3-955839e06...
Indeed. This should be their Chernobyl. But the reasons are all the paranoia and fear that all the cognitive dissonance creates in such a repressing atmosphere.
> We know enough to acknowledge that the scenario is possible, and we should therefore act as though it’s true.
Kind of incendiary to act as if it's true.
I do agree that it might be worth examining the wisdom of keeping virology institutions near cities.
Kind of incendiary to act as if it's true.
I do agree that it might be worth examining the wisdom of keeping virology institutions near cities.
It's fucked up that "it's wrong because that's what Trumpists say" is considered a powerful argument.
The same as not wanting to publicize the results of the vaccine effectiveness with Trump in office "not to make it seem he should have the credit".
But I fully know that "that's what the libtards say" is an equivalent idiotic argument.
Luckily I don't live in the US and I never felt forced to pick a side. I have always been skeptical about the origins of the virus and even know I am not afraid to say that I don't know. It could be artificial or natural but I have yet to see something really conclusive.
I am afraid what will happen when all Earth will live as a single society under a single government. I see too much stupidity and idiotic dynamics in human societies and I always managed to keep away or change my surroundings. As we become more and more connected this is becoming harder and harder.
The same as not wanting to publicize the results of the vaccine effectiveness with Trump in office "not to make it seem he should have the credit".
But I fully know that "that's what the libtards say" is an equivalent idiotic argument.
Luckily I don't live in the US and I never felt forced to pick a side. I have always been skeptical about the origins of the virus and even know I am not afraid to say that I don't know. It could be artificial or natural but I have yet to see something really conclusive.
I am afraid what will happen when all Earth will live as a single society under a single government. I see too much stupidity and idiotic dynamics in human societies and I always managed to keep away or change my surroundings. As we become more and more connected this is becoming harder and harder.
>It's fucked up that "it's wrong because that's what Trumpists say" is considered a powerful argument.
>The same as not wanting to publicize the results of the vaccine effectiveness with Trump in office "not to make it seem he should have the credit".
Indeed, last year we had Biden, Harris, and Pelosi all saying they won't trust any Trump vaccine (https://www.newsweek.com/anti-vaccine-covid-trust-skepticism...)
Speaking as a fully vaccinated person, had Trump won reelection, the current relentless media drumbeat over a) how safe COVID19 vaccines are, b) how great the deployment has been, and c) how if you don't get vaccinated yesterday you are an antivax nut and traitor to the human race would be completely different.[1] We'd be hearing a lot more about the "Trump vaccine", both by the Trump administration itself (because it's the one that in March 2020 began Operation Warp Speed, the process of throwing incredible amounts of money at every proposed vaccine that resulted in the happy situation today of the US's massive and growing surplus of shots from multiple manufacturers) and by powerful media and opposition-politics voices continually highlighting every real and imagined fault in vaccines.
[1] The federal government is almost completely uninvolved in the end-user vaccine delivery process. The process since the beginning—i.e., before the election—has been for the federal government to distribute vaccine supplies to each state based on population, with each state's government responsible for everything else.
>The same as not wanting to publicize the results of the vaccine effectiveness with Trump in office "not to make it seem he should have the credit".
Indeed, last year we had Biden, Harris, and Pelosi all saying they won't trust any Trump vaccine (https://www.newsweek.com/anti-vaccine-covid-trust-skepticism...)
Speaking as a fully vaccinated person, had Trump won reelection, the current relentless media drumbeat over a) how safe COVID19 vaccines are, b) how great the deployment has been, and c) how if you don't get vaccinated yesterday you are an antivax nut and traitor to the human race would be completely different.[1] We'd be hearing a lot more about the "Trump vaccine", both by the Trump administration itself (because it's the one that in March 2020 began Operation Warp Speed, the process of throwing incredible amounts of money at every proposed vaccine that resulted in the happy situation today of the US's massive and growing surplus of shots from multiple manufacturers) and by powerful media and opposition-politics voices continually highlighting every real and imagined fault in vaccines.
[1] The federal government is almost completely uninvolved in the end-user vaccine delivery process. The process since the beginning—i.e., before the election—has been for the federal government to distribute vaccine supplies to each state based on population, with each state's government responsible for everything else.
If I had some ant colonies at home and after a while my neighbors complained of ants in their apartments, I would certainly audit my ant-husbandry procedures in case some of my ants had escaped.
Ignoring the possibility of an escape, even in the absence of hard data, would be unnecessarily cavalier.
Ignoring the possibility of an escape, even in the absence of hard data, would be unnecessarily cavalier.
Yeah, but if your neighbors bred ants that had to be sustained in a specialized environment to stay alive, you wouldn’t blame them for an outbreak. Viruses in the wild must be able to survive the environment, while a lab grown version would be protected from competitive viruses and enemies.
Based on the available data [0], it seems like this particular breed of ant not only lives but thrives in a non-specialized environment as long as humans are around.
Just to make it clear, I am talking about an accidental release of an otherwise wild virus. I'm not implying the virus was engineered.
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_deaths
Just to make it clear, I am talking about an accidental release of an otherwise wild virus. I'm not implying the virus was engineered.
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_deaths
Apologize to "conspiracy theorists" and fact check the fact checkers
I think a more relevant question is:
What if the lab leak story is not true, but it continues being pushed by the sitting US administration for political purposes, then what happens next?
I think a parallel is the Soviet disinformation campaign in 80es trying to link AIDS to secret US biological weapons research. Especially in poorer countries it contributed to skepticism and paranoia around treatments and prevention measures. Ultimately the Soviet empire collapses while the paranoia and mistrust in official authorities persists.
What if the lab leak story is not true, but it continues being pushed by the sitting US administration for political purposes, then what happens next?
I think a parallel is the Soviet disinformation campaign in 80es trying to link AIDS to secret US biological weapons research. Especially in poorer countries it contributed to skepticism and paranoia around treatments and prevention measures. Ultimately the Soviet empire collapses while the paranoia and mistrust in official authorities persists.
> What if the lab leak story is not true, but it continues being pushed by the sitting US administration for political purposes, then what happens next?
Them it will serve the task of galvanising West's otherwise weak popular demand to do anything about China.
The political system in the West is driven by two things: elections, and lobbying. Western politicians will not go on offensive on China if it will not win them the election, and will probably oppose it if will loose them the election (imagine protesting angry hipster not getting their new iphone.)
Them it will serve the task of galvanising West's otherwise weak popular demand to do anything about China.
The political system in the West is driven by two things: elections, and lobbying. Western politicians will not go on offensive on China if it will not win them the election, and will probably oppose it if will loose them the election (imagine protesting angry hipster not getting their new iphone.)
Yeah. That is probably the political purpose of it.
The problem as I see it is that you are injecting your own population with anti-science and paranoia. Ultimately this may come back to haunt you.
The problem as I see it is that you are injecting your own population with anti-science and paranoia. Ultimately this may come back to haunt you.
What this showed is how woefully unprepared national defenses were for a bioattack, even though NBC is a core of military planning.
I would expect Congress to reallocate DoD budgets, from trillion-dollar planes that stop flying if you look at them funny, to building enough PCR monitoring infrastructure and vaccine-generation capacity to nip any such future pandemic in the bud.
I would expect Congress to reallocate DoD budgets, from trillion-dollar planes that stop flying if you look at them funny, to building enough PCR monitoring infrastructure and vaccine-generation capacity to nip any such future pandemic in the bud.
Then hopefully the world powers with the resources to do this kind of research work together to come up with new standards to prevent lab-leaks.
Without a doubt, countries like the US, Russia, and China, have tons of experiments going on as we speak that have the potential to create another COVID-19 or worse.
Without a doubt, countries like the US, Russia, and China, have tons of experiments going on as we speak that have the potential to create another COVID-19 or worse.
I have been continually bothered that "escaped from a lab" is allowed to carry hints that this is an 'experimental' or other modified form of the virus.
Why does lab-origin reporting not come with a bright line between an engineered virus and samples collected for study?
Why does lab-origin reporting not come with a bright line between an engineered virus and samples collected for study?
Whether the virus was recombinant or not has been a subject of debate. The fact is that we can't know for sure unless we hear from the researchers working in that lab.
https://www.factcheck.org/2021/05/the-wuhan-lab-and-the-gain...
https://www.factcheck.org/2021/05/the-wuhan-lab-and-the-gain...
Because there isn't really a bright line there. It could be a sample collected and nothing done, or it could be one they've tried on humanized mice or a bunch of other stuff.
The thing that should be noted is that a lab escape does not mean that the lab is the origin of the virus. It is equally plausible that the lab experimented with the virus after it was caught in the wild.
The lab leak is right, does this mean the final nail in the coffin of so-called “journalism” and media? I’ve really had it with people in this country saying someone is wrong, only because of their political party.
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What’s next!? Maybe we should stop fiddling with viruses in countries that struggle with basic quality control for even the most basic manufacturing?!
Why is the left so uninterested in finding the truth here? This “if it came from a lab, what next” narrative is complete gaslighting.
Why is the left so uninterested in finding the truth here? This “if it came from a lab, what next” narrative is complete gaslighting.
First of: The lab leak story has always been mainstream.
It was pushed by the Trump administration and now by the Biden administration.
For a take on what is wrong with it see:
https://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1396240581651742724
It was pushed by the Trump administration and now by the Biden administration.
For a take on what is wrong with it see:
https://twitter.com/MoNscience/status/1396240581651742724
This thread doesn’t address gain of function research. It’s doesn’t address the lab-leak hypothesis that is being talked about.
It explicitly does (serial passing).
Sorry those Twitter threads are hard on my eyeballs. That’s the most convincing argument against lab leak I’ve seen so far. By his logic, gain of function could never produce a dangerous virus because any such virus would only be adapted to grow in a Petri dish. I don’t buy it.
I googled lab leak for the first time just now. I haven’t wanted to get involved in the team sports. But anyway my mind is made up. The Seattle times (iirc) has a good timeline of all the developments. Bat infested copper mine workers fell ill with an “extremely similar” virus to COVID 19 back in 2012 and that virus was sampled and taken to WIV. It’s pretty much impossible to deny at this point. Which makes sense because nobody would be talking about it otherwise.
I googled lab leak for the first time just now. I haven’t wanted to get involved in the team sports. But anyway my mind is made up. The Seattle times (iirc) has a good timeline of all the developments. Bat infested copper mine workers fell ill with an “extremely similar” virus to COVID 19 back in 2012 and that virus was sampled and taken to WIV. It’s pretty much impossible to deny at this point. Which makes sense because nobody would be talking about it otherwise.
> First of: The lab leak story has always been mainstream.
Just because Trump said something doesn't make it mainstream. Until this week Facebook even blocked people from suggesting it was a possibility.
Just because Trump said something doesn't make it mainstream. Until this week Facebook even blocked people from suggesting it was a possibility.
Belief is the death of intelligence.
economusty(1)
> If the Lab-Leak Theory Is Right, What’s Next?
What next is Western governments getting a solid scapegoat.
They can say "We completely bungled the quarantine, but now you can blame commies"
With so many Western governments guaranteed to loose their next election, only an absolutely massive outrage can save them.
What next is Western governments getting a solid scapegoat.
They can say "We completely bungled the quarantine, but now you can blame commies"
With so many Western governments guaranteed to loose their next election, only an absolutely massive outrage can save them.
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This Lab-Leak Theory should have been killed in the cradle. This idle speculation about the origin theory of Covid19 only goes to fuel the machinations of conservative think tanks and does nothing to further science.
As a scientist, I would love to know how why and where this covid strain started. But understand that lab-leak or lab-escaped is just a stones throw away from lab-created and the last thing we need is science blamed for this virus.
With conservatives in the US so hell bent on defunding anything science related, this would only be used to kill off research programs. We need these programs to be researching against these pathogens now, so that when something new pops up we have methods to create vaccines. If it hadn't been for decades of covid research there wouldn't have been a covid19 vaccine created in 9 months. It would have been years, possibly decades, with our only hope of containment some kind of collapse of the virus similar to the Spanish Flu of 1918.
As a scientist, I would love to know how why and where this covid strain started. But understand that lab-leak or lab-escaped is just a stones throw away from lab-created and the last thing we need is science blamed for this virus.
With conservatives in the US so hell bent on defunding anything science related, this would only be used to kill off research programs. We need these programs to be researching against these pathogens now, so that when something new pops up we have methods to create vaccines. If it hadn't been for decades of covid research there wouldn't have been a covid19 vaccine created in 9 months. It would have been years, possibly decades, with our only hope of containment some kind of collapse of the virus similar to the Spanish Flu of 1918.
Perhaps it’s important to discourage improper safety procedures in gain of function labs?
Sure, but it's important to recognize that science is dangerous and slip-ups do happen. That is why research has rigorous safety precautions and procedures.
> the last thing we need is science blamed for this virus.
I think this is the primary reason so many virologists are against the lab-leak idea. It's not because they think it's unlikely, but because if people were aware of how dangerous this research was the funding would dry up and it might even get banned.
I think this is the primary reason so many virologists are against the lab-leak idea. It's not because they think it's unlikely, but because if people were aware of how dangerous this research was the funding would dry up and it might even get banned.
This lab leak caused a historical pandemic that's killed countless people and infected even more than that. That shows that whatever was being done safety-wise, it wasn't nearly enough. Research of covid-level danger shouldn't be suppressed (if anything, we need more of it to be prepared for the next pandemic), but it should absolutely be more stringently controlled. Millions of people now have to go through vaccinations, quarantines, testing, and more as a result of the leak. It would've been quite a return on investment to prevent all of that time and effort by requiring covid/coronavirus researchers to quarantine themselves from society or something in case of infections.
There is so much wrong here that it's hard to pick where to start. Just wow.
Josh rogan is a frequent CNN correspondent and a veteran journalist. He came on the joe rogan podcast to sell his book about China. He made a plausible claim that COVID was the result of “gain of function” research performed on a naturally occurring bat-born virus. This idea has also been floated on 60 minutes.
He also claimed that China threatened the United States with cutting off our supply of masks if our government acknowledged the fact that all of the circumstantial evidence pointed to a lab-leak. China has been known to do this and it was certainly to their benefit, so it strikes me as plausible. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Biden admin is now signaling support for lab-leak just as it is becoming clear that the pandemic is now over.
As a person with some background in biology, I initially dismissed lab-leak because the popular discussion was about engineered viruses which is bullshit. I didn’t know about gain of function. I’m personally heavily in favor of the lab-leak hypothesis.
The entire world was a science experiment for a year. Stop gain of function research. Stop stigmatizing prepper culture.
He also claimed that China threatened the United States with cutting off our supply of masks if our government acknowledged the fact that all of the circumstantial evidence pointed to a lab-leak. China has been known to do this and it was certainly to their benefit, so it strikes me as plausible. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Biden admin is now signaling support for lab-leak just as it is becoming clear that the pandemic is now over.
As a person with some background in biology, I initially dismissed lab-leak because the popular discussion was about engineered viruses which is bullshit. I didn’t know about gain of function. I’m personally heavily in favor of the lab-leak hypothesis.
The entire world was a science experiment for a year. Stop gain of function research. Stop stigmatizing prepper culture.
Do you have any resources to learn more about "gain of function" for people with no background in biology?
Rogin's opinion peace here includes something about that:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/03/04/covid-tru...
By the end of March, China had delivered aid to 120 countries, a massive “mask diplomacy” effort. Early on, these Chinese efforts were widely welcomed — but later “mask diplomacy” would become synonymous with China’s use of aid as a means of leverage over countries that might want to criticize it or its handling of the coronavirus outbreak that had begun within its borders.
...
Privately but explicitly, Chinese diplomats told U.S. officials they would cut off exports of medical supplies to the United States if Washington wasn’t careful in this war of words. Beijing was seeking to snuff out any discussion of the virus, along with any criticism of its domestic response and any allegation that it was hiding or misrepresenting information about the virus. In a move that U.S. officials saw as punitive, Beijing had halted exports of items such as face masks, even when they were made by American companies like 3M, which had factories inside China
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/03/04/covid-tru...
By the end of March, China had delivered aid to 120 countries, a massive “mask diplomacy” effort. Early on, these Chinese efforts were widely welcomed — but later “mask diplomacy” would become synonymous with China’s use of aid as a means of leverage over countries that might want to criticize it or its handling of the coronavirus outbreak that had begun within its borders.
...
Privately but explicitly, Chinese diplomats told U.S. officials they would cut off exports of medical supplies to the United States if Washington wasn’t careful in this war of words. Beijing was seeking to snuff out any discussion of the virus, along with any criticism of its domestic response and any allegation that it was hiding or misrepresenting information about the virus. In a move that U.S. officials saw as punitive, Beijing had halted exports of items such as face masks, even when they were made by American companies like 3M, which had factories inside China
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The "lab or market" part of this is irrelevant. China caused a global pandemic by gross incompetence either way.
Add that to their ethnic and religious cleansing, suppression of all descent, acts of aggression towards their neighbours and 101 other issues and decide: is sanctioning them worth the costs?
I think so. Many disagree.
Add that to their ethnic and religious cleansing, suppression of all descent, acts of aggression towards their neighbours and 101 other issues and decide: is sanctioning them worth the costs?
I think so. Many disagree.
Think about how a claim that the outbreak of a virus from a place with a lab that did gain of function experiments on the same group of viruses was deemed to insane to exist online and was scrubbed from every platform. If something so very plausible can be so easily removed from global discourse, maybe the conspiracy loonies are on to something.
For all those jacked up to hype your conspiracy crap again, just FYI it says "IF the lab-leak." As in, this is an opinion column, just like your conspiracy, not based on facts. Worse, the very first line is "We know enough to acknowledge that the scenario is possible, and we should therefore act as though it’s true." We know you are all humans, which means you COULD be pedophiles, so we should therefore act as though it is true. That is the world you want.......
Here's a scientist explaining the various covid origin hypotheses going around, and which one is correct:
https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...
The press likes to stir things up because emotional people follow their stories more and make them more popular. But this is definitely putting the cart before the horse. Stirring up a mob almost never ends well.
https://old.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...
The press likes to stir things up because emotional people follow their stories more and make them more popular. But this is definitely putting the cart before the horse. Stirring up a mob almost never ends well.
This guy has a PhD and never heard of gain of function research?
I don't think that's an accurate representation. Can you link where he says he never heard of gain of function research?
I can’t link to an absence of a thing. I looked through his link and I didn’t see any mention of gain of function research. Maybe I missed it because that thread is completely schizophrenic, but I did look.
It's interesting that you dismiss it because it's completely schizophrenic, and yet mizzack dismisses it because it's neatly organized and long.
And yes, he does talk about gain-of-function. His background is in high risk biocontainment viruses, and his PhD was specifically focused on Ebola-, Hanta-, and Flavi-viruses.
And yes, he does talk about gain-of-function. His background is in high risk biocontainment viruses, and his PhD was specifically focused on Ebola-, Hanta-, and Flavi-viruses.
I said it’s schizophrenic because of its format which is more a consequence of the modern web than any particular person. Why did he say gain of function couldn’t be applied to a pre-existing virus and result in a highly infectious corona virus?
This is nothing but a bunch of appeal to authority and presumption masquerading as compelling argument. People propagate and buy it simply because it's long winded, neatly organized, and presented by someone claiming to be an authority.
And, were any humility to arise out of that exercise, perhaps they could direct that newfound and unfamiliar trait towards some other things they currently dismiss as "conspiracy theories".