Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies(journals.plos.org)
journals.plos.org
Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0258161
70 comments
You can just read their own description.
http://seshatdatabank.info/seshat-about-us/
http://seshatdatabank.info/seshat-about-us/
Re: Lazy Saturday Accommodations:
About Us Seshat: Global History Databank is a large, international, multidisciplinary team of evolutionary scientists, historians, anthropologists, archaeologists, economists, and other social scientists. Our team includes scholars from various backgrounds, policy makers, and enthusiastic volunteers. Seshat is governed by an editorial board, who oversee work done by postdoctoral researchers, collaborators and consultants, and research assistants all over the world. We are a nonprofit organization housed by the innovative Think-Tank the Evolution Institute. Our mission is to gather information from historical societies in order to rigorously test different hypotheses about the rise and fall of large-scale societies across the globe and human history.
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We also rely on the efforts of our team of Research Assistants and Volunteers — see how you can get involved in this exciting organization!
About Us Seshat: Global History Databank is a large, international, multidisciplinary team of evolutionary scientists, historians, anthropologists, archaeologists, economists, and other social scientists. Our team includes scholars from various backgrounds, policy makers, and enthusiastic volunteers. Seshat is governed by an editorial board, who oversee work done by postdoctoral researchers, collaborators and consultants, and research assistants all over the world. We are a nonprofit organization housed by the innovative Think-Tank the Evolution Institute. Our mission is to gather information from historical societies in order to rigorously test different hypotheses about the rise and fall of large-scale societies across the globe and human history.
The Seshat: Global History Databank is an umbrella organization for numerous research projects that examine different facets or themes of human life. Each project is headed by various members of the Seshat Team along with a group of consultants and contributing experts. Support for our research comes from a variety of private donors, academic, and governmental funding sources. The Seshat (project) Wikipedia page provides some additional information about how the project is organized and funded.
We also rely on the efforts of our team of Research Assistants and Volunteers — see how you can get involved in this exciting organization!
The analysis of Cavalry and Iron is fascinating. As is the correlation between MilTech and Phylogeny (cultural similarity between polities).
I was most surprised that the authors had no strong theories about the role of "agricultural productivity". In addition to building armies from agricultural surplus, the ability to feed horses, people, elephants, etc was key to large military campaign. A common defensive technique against large army campaigns included burning agriculture.. for instance Hannibal's invasion of Rome. ie, the agriculture supply-chain itself seems to be a necessary pre-requisite to military campaigns with thousands of troops.
I was most surprised that the authors had no strong theories about the role of "agricultural productivity". In addition to building armies from agricultural surplus, the ability to feed horses, people, elephants, etc was key to large military campaign. A common defensive technique against large army campaigns included burning agriculture.. for instance Hannibal's invasion of Rome. ie, the agriculture supply-chain itself seems to be a necessary pre-requisite to military campaigns with thousands of troops.
Speaking of examples of food innovation aiding military campaigns, Napoleon's army was responsible for the development of canned food[1].
[1] https://unrealfacts.com/napoleon-bonaparte-role-canned-food-...
[1] https://unrealfacts.com/napoleon-bonaparte-role-canned-food-...
James Burke covers this in Connections, season one I believe.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connections_(British_documenta...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connections_(British_documenta...
Wow, this might be one of the best Wikipedia pages I've ever encountered. Thanks for linking it!
You’re welcome! Enjoy the show! You can find it on YouTube. It may also be on Internet Archive and the usual places.
It all cumulates eventually into a race to singularity, which is a zero sum game. Whoever gets there first wins. I promise to make mine mostly benevolent.
I think emp warfare (actually already quietly a thing) is going to be the in between for stuff like drones...
I hope the new generations of children are being taught old school survival skills, because they are probably going to need them.
One of the best books on the post nuclear world that I reference often is The Shield of Achilles, and one of the conclusions that sticks with me is that there will be a rise in corporate power and a fall of nation state power.
Fight club was right after all... "planet Starbucks" indeed.
I think emp warfare (actually already quietly a thing) is going to be the in between for stuff like drones...
I hope the new generations of children are being taught old school survival skills, because they are probably going to need them.
One of the best books on the post nuclear world that I reference often is The Shield of Achilles, and one of the conclusions that sticks with me is that there will be a rise in corporate power and a fall of nation state power.
Fight club was right after all... "planet Starbucks" indeed.
I don't think a rise in corporate power and a fall of nation state power makes sense.
At some point, some group is going to need to have a monopoly on violence. It doesn't matter if two groups of power don't have complete dominance over a geographic region, they are still two groups with power that look after their own kind and perform diplomacy.
At some point, some group is going to need to have a monopoly on violence. It doesn't matter if two groups of power don't have complete dominance over a geographic region, they are still two groups with power that look after their own kind and perform diplomacy.
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One has to wonder how much of military "tech" is simply fake. Until its use is demonstrated in war (which i absolutely do not advocate, and is known to affected by propaganda as well), all the incentives from weapons' manufacturers and buyers are to exaggerate features and effectiveness. The main victim is the gullible public, who funds the military-industrial complex with taxes.
Even if 90% of military tech is fake (and I think "fake" more usually means "we think it works, but turns out it doesn't"), the other 10% can completely tip the scales in a war, to disastrous effect (to the loser). History has a lot of examples of technology which seemed preposterous until it completely turned the tides of battles or wars (radar, tanks, mustard gas, atomic bombs...)
Drone warfare is pretty clearly in this camp. Not a lot of people followed the Armenia / Azerbaijan war last year, but Armenia was fighting a war from 10 years ago (trench + urban warfare), and they got slaughtered by armed drones. It was a wipeout.
Nobody wants to be the Armenians in the next war... and often that means wasting a lot of money figuring out what the next breakthrough is.
Drone warfare is pretty clearly in this camp. Not a lot of people followed the Armenia / Azerbaijan war last year, but Armenia was fighting a war from 10 years ago (trench + urban warfare), and they got slaughtered by armed drones. It was a wipeout.
Nobody wants to be the Armenians in the next war... and often that means wasting a lot of money figuring out what the next breakthrough is.
Yeah, I’ve been waiting for a full reading of last year’s Armenian/Azerbaijani conflict but haven’t seen anything that runs down the full event. Any links? Thus far I’ve found some YouTube or other video clips. Looking for a more technical exploration of how that tech was used.
I recall The War Zone [1] having pretty good coverage of the tech component.
[1] https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone
[1] https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone
I believe there's a fairly comprehensive report on the Bayraktar TB2 and its use on this blog [oryxspioenkop.com]. You might want to check out popular front on instagram as well
Great source, thanks!
your comment shows little knowledge of history. wars, historically, have been won by the parties with the strongest economy. that's even true for pre-historical conquests, as far as we know. ww2 was won by the midwest industrial base, and (mostly), the soviet's. check out the ussr industrial growth in the 30s. (they didn't have the fed wrecking havoc.) today there's no match for china, this is not even controversial. thankfully they're smart enough to understand that war doesn't make sense.
What.
The US spent 20 years fighting goat herders with AK-47s, and lost. The CCCP did the same and also lost, albeit they left actually left when they realized is was a mess (with a little help from CIA, sure). There are other obvious examples.
Economic might is a major determinant in how well you can prosecute a war but it is by no means the only thing that matters.
The US spent 20 years fighting goat herders with AK-47s, and lost. The CCCP did the same and also lost, albeit they left actually left when they realized is was a mess (with a little help from CIA, sure). There are other obvious examples.
Economic might is a major determinant in how well you can prosecute a war but it is by no means the only thing that matters.
unless you live on the moon, it should be clear by now that the afghanistan occupation's main objective was to enrich contractors. the mission was accomplished.
I was there, so believe me I’m plenty familiar with the grift that went on. But your characterization of economic might Uber alles is not accurate, which was my point.
My objective is not to belittle the contribution of individuals in war efforts. Clearly wars are won by soldiers. But technology matters. Cement to make roads. Steel to make ak47s (which are much more valuable, per kilo of raw material, than drones). Coal to power it all. And so on.
> 20 years fighting goat herders with AK-47s, and lost
they lost because they never really intended to win at all costs, like in WW2.
There's no doubt that the US can win any war currently. You can't even really call afganistan a real war, since the other side is so hopelessly outgunned that they resort to guerilla warfare. It is the same in the vietnam war - the US could've spent more nukes, more severe firepower and more man power - it's just politically infeasible to do so - the technology and capability is there.
they lost because they never really intended to win at all costs, like in WW2.
There's no doubt that the US can win any war currently. You can't even really call afganistan a real war, since the other side is so hopelessly outgunned that they resort to guerilla warfare. It is the same in the vietnam war - the US could've spent more nukes, more severe firepower and more man power - it's just politically infeasible to do so - the technology and capability is there.
The vast majority of wars have been won by the party with stronger economy. There are of course exceptions. Especially when the theater of operation is on the other side of the globe (i.e. 1776)
Mujahideen that turned into Taliban were literally trained by the CIA.
Calling them goat herders is either ignorance, racism, or pushing whatever agenda you're trying to push.
Unless you're specifically speaking of the lowest caliber grunts of their infantry, in which theirs are nearly the same as ours. Mostly uneducated cannon fodder.
But yes, the US completely intentionally drew out the 20 years of war to put money in the military industrial complexes pockets. The Taliban tried to surrender 2-3 months after we first attacked them IIRC, and we said no.
Calling them goat herders is either ignorance, racism, or pushing whatever agenda you're trying to push.
Unless you're specifically speaking of the lowest caliber grunts of their infantry, in which theirs are nearly the same as ours. Mostly uneducated cannon fodder.
But yes, the US completely intentionally drew out the 20 years of war to put money in the military industrial complexes pockets. The Taliban tried to surrender 2-3 months after we first attacked them IIRC, and we said no.
Unless those mujahideen were time travelers, no they were not the same taliban I was fighting when I was there. I’m well aware of the early history of how the Taliban developed as a CIA proxy war against Soviet Union. It had little to do with who we were fighting when we were actually there. It’s a Reddit-tier reductionist reading of history to laugh it off as “you were fighting the people CIA trained”.
>Calling them goat herders is either ignorance, racism, or pushing whatever agenda you’re trying to push.
I’m accurately describing the people I personally fought in this war. Good to know it’s racist to accurately describe them.
> Unless you're specifically speaking of the lowest caliber grunts of their infantry, in which theirs are nearly the same as ours. Mostly uneducated canon fodder.
I actually laughed out loud at this.
>Calling them goat herders is either ignorance, racism, or pushing whatever agenda you’re trying to push.
I’m accurately describing the people I personally fought in this war. Good to know it’s racist to accurately describe them.
> Unless you're specifically speaking of the lowest caliber grunts of their infantry, in which theirs are nearly the same as ours. Mostly uneducated canon fodder.
I actually laughed out loud at this.
I wasn't trying to imply that anybody fighting post 2000 or even earlier is fighting the people the CIA trained.
I'm saying that today's Taliban receive training by yesterday's Taliban/whatever tribal spinoffs came from that who were trained by the CIA.
Is that anything like the direct US Military/CIA training? No, but the tribal knowledge of what was learned doesn't just disappear, it gets passed down.
Do you think it wasn't at all passed down? I too have more than one friend in the marines that went on multiple deployments mid 2000's-2010's. They seem to think it's a fairly reasonable argument.
I see no point in the goat herders comment. We don't refer to our basic infantry as former "factory laborers", "retail workers", "hamburger flippers", or "highschool dropouts" - all occupations I've seen go into the army, and end up as actively deployed infantry.
I don't know though. If you want to say the hamburger flippers got blown up by the goat herders IED, feel free.
I'm saying that today's Taliban receive training by yesterday's Taliban/whatever tribal spinoffs came from that who were trained by the CIA.
Is that anything like the direct US Military/CIA training? No, but the tribal knowledge of what was learned doesn't just disappear, it gets passed down.
Do you think it wasn't at all passed down? I too have more than one friend in the marines that went on multiple deployments mid 2000's-2010's. They seem to think it's a fairly reasonable argument.
I see no point in the goat herders comment. We don't refer to our basic infantry as former "factory laborers", "retail workers", "hamburger flippers", or "highschool dropouts" - all occupations I've seen go into the army, and end up as actively deployed infantry.
I don't know though. If you want to say the hamburger flippers got blown up by the goat herders IED, feel free.
One could think of rural hipsters with goats in america. I think characterizing Afghans as poor fighters was part of the propaganda push. "They're so weak, no way we'll lose." Turns out those goat herders have successfully expelled invaders since recorded history.
> I think characterizing Afghans as poor fighters was part of the propaganda push.
Dude I was there, on the ground, house to house and village to village. These guys were laughably incompetent as a fighting force. They were hungry, dirty, poorly trained and equipped, couldn't shoot, and often killed themselves or their buddies unintentionally.
We lost because of political factors, especially within the higher echelons of the military command structure. We had the tactical victories in spades but our leadership (military and political) could not translate tactical dominance into strategic momentum.
Dude I was there, on the ground, house to house and village to village. These guys were laughably incompetent as a fighting force. They were hungry, dirty, poorly trained and equipped, couldn't shoot, and often killed themselves or their buddies unintentionally.
We lost because of political factors, especially within the higher echelons of the military command structure. We had the tactical victories in spades but our leadership (military and political) could not translate tactical dominance into strategic momentum.
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> The Taliban tried to surrender 2-3 months after we first attacked them IIRC, and we said no.
The problem with fighting people who may have wronged you but have not seized any of your territories, yet whose values and principles are far from your own is that you can only accept unconditional surrender.
Otherwise, why fight.
The problem with fighting people who may have wronged you but have not seized any of your territories, yet whose values and principles are far from your own is that you can only accept unconditional surrender.
Otherwise, why fight.
The US “cannon fodder” comes from the most advanced civilian gun culture in the world. To this day the US federal government actively supports civilian marksmanship.
It was entertaining seeing how the CIA taught the 2021 Taliban proper trigger discipline compared to the fingers resting on the trigger of a machine gun photos of the early 2000s. Shades of Kipling there.
It was entertaining seeing how the CIA taught the 2021 Taliban proper trigger discipline compared to the fingers resting on the trigger of a machine gun photos of the early 2000s. Shades of Kipling there.
Do you know what the Army Commendation medal is? To my knowledge, it's mostly something that is given after your first deployment/duty, fairly common but you have to have done something meaningful.
A friend of mine got his commendation medal in what I believe was Basic training (and this was just national guard), or training slightly after basic. This, from his understanding at the time, was fairly uncommon/unheard of.
Why he received the medal? He was the singular person in his platoon/training regiment that shot a perfect score/sheet in their rifle marksman class. For some reason, very few others came even close to perfect, most more towards the (lol) average of what was required, or worse than that.
He got a lot of questions from his peers as to what he was doing differently to have so seemingly easily scored perfectly. He said he wasn't really sure... asked "did you zero your rifles?"
By his account, he was quite literally the singular person, of a group of people all having military training and fucking around with firearms and live ammunition, that read the actual manual, instructions, and properly zeroed his rifle.
So, while you may perceive "comes from the most advanced civilian gun culture in the world" to be true, I somewhat disagree on its merits and propose that if the Taliban infantry are indeed goat herders, they may have more hands on experience in properly using firearms, as animal husbandry in areas like Afghanistan has some livestock preditors they must be wary about. That and the whole growing up in a completely unstable place constantly in some form of war/conflict.
I have however heard reports from the tales of General Butt Naked & Co, that down in West Africa and such, that the child soldiers know nothing other than the idea of "big number equal good"
And so, they set the windage sights on their AK's to the highest number, and end up shooting completely over the heads of people 20 feet from them. Perhaps these are the types you're thinking of when you say Afghani goat herder? No, you may be thinking of African child soldiers.
A friend of mine got his commendation medal in what I believe was Basic training (and this was just national guard), or training slightly after basic. This, from his understanding at the time, was fairly uncommon/unheard of.
Why he received the medal? He was the singular person in his platoon/training regiment that shot a perfect score/sheet in their rifle marksman class. For some reason, very few others came even close to perfect, most more towards the (lol) average of what was required, or worse than that.
He got a lot of questions from his peers as to what he was doing differently to have so seemingly easily scored perfectly. He said he wasn't really sure... asked "did you zero your rifles?"
By his account, he was quite literally the singular person, of a group of people all having military training and fucking around with firearms and live ammunition, that read the actual manual, instructions, and properly zeroed his rifle.
So, while you may perceive "comes from the most advanced civilian gun culture in the world" to be true, I somewhat disagree on its merits and propose that if the Taliban infantry are indeed goat herders, they may have more hands on experience in properly using firearms, as animal husbandry in areas like Afghanistan has some livestock preditors they must be wary about. That and the whole growing up in a completely unstable place constantly in some form of war/conflict.
I have however heard reports from the tales of General Butt Naked & Co, that down in West Africa and such, that the child soldiers know nothing other than the idea of "big number equal good"
And so, they set the windage sights on their AK's to the highest number, and end up shooting completely over the heads of people 20 feet from them. Perhaps these are the types you're thinking of when you say Afghani goat herder? No, you may be thinking of African child soldiers.
> So, while you may perceive "comes from the most advanced civilian gun culture in the world" to be true, I somewhat disagree on its merits and propose that if the Taliban infantry are indeed goat herders, they may have more hands on experience in properly using firearms, as animal husbandry in areas like Afghanistan has some livestock preditors they must be wary about.
Your point is well taken, and I don’t know when your anecdote is from, but rural Americans definitely use guns as an agricultural tool. Hunting season laws don’t apply to wildlife that’s damaging crops or worrying livestock. In my neck of the woods everyone knows how to zero their rifle, because one shot is the most you’re going to get.
I don’t mean to say Americans are neo-Spartans or anything, just that I’m willing to bet the average Ame
> I have however heard reports from the tales of General Butt Naked & Co, that down in West Africa and such, that the child soldiers know nothing other than the idea of "big number equal good"
I heard that anecdote applied to the Bush War.
Your point is well taken, and I don’t know when your anecdote is from, but rural Americans definitely use guns as an agricultural tool. Hunting season laws don’t apply to wildlife that’s damaging crops or worrying livestock. In my neck of the woods everyone knows how to zero their rifle, because one shot is the most you’re going to get.
I don’t mean to say Americans are neo-Spartans or anything, just that I’m willing to bet the average Ame
> I have however heard reports from the tales of General Butt Naked & Co, that down in West Africa and such, that the child soldiers know nothing other than the idea of "big number equal good"
I heard that anecdote applied to the Bush War.
It's sad to hear that the neo-marxist lowering of educational standards is also happening in the military. Our faith rests with the self-regulated militia.
I don't know what self-regulated militia you speak of, but I hope they have a way to survive MIRV's & a supply chain that isn't reliant on fast food and Wal-Mart, because any domestic group that can't will likely be stopped the second our government feels like stopping them.
There’s the Unorganized Militia of the United States and if you’re a male US citizen odds are good that you’re a statutory[1] member. It’s completely distinct from Selective Service.
[1] https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/246
[1] https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/246
That was just a word play on the 2nd amendment. They couldn't stop the Afghans with GSM-targeted drone-delivered missiles though :)
The USSR was perfectly capable of wrecking havoc on itself without the fed.
While the Soviet evacuation of it's industry to the east was impressive one must not forget the massive aid the USSR received from the western allies.
You mean those "allies" who signed a non-aggression pact with them and then proceeded to discharge on them the largest amount of explosive material ever in the history of warfare? (Sadly that record held for only a few months.) Because those guys were well funded by the Western banksters.
No. I mean the support USSR received from USA after the German attack.
A third of trucks used by the Red Army where US made
A third of soviet airforce was US made. US also sent a lot of high octane fuel needed for the airplanes.
A significant amount of food.
It is very likely that the USSR would not win if not for the US material support.
It is very likely that the USSR would not win if not for the US material support.
Also... why would USSR and Germany need a non-aggression pact when they did not share any border?
> wars, historically, have been won by the parties with the strongest economy.
That isn't in conflict with what bpodgursky said - the country with the larger economy can iterate through technologies more quickly. If their opponents come up with an idea, a highly productive nation can copy and mass produce it. If they come up with an idea, their opponents may not have the industrial base to replicate it.
Although I do agree that based on the economy heuristic I'd expect China to do really well in any war. They're probably going to be better at drones than their opponents in a sustained conflict and it looks like drones win wars right now.
That isn't in conflict with what bpodgursky said - the country with the larger economy can iterate through technologies more quickly. If their opponents come up with an idea, a highly productive nation can copy and mass produce it. If they come up with an idea, their opponents may not have the industrial base to replicate it.
Although I do agree that based on the economy heuristic I'd expect China to do really well in any war. They're probably going to be better at drones than their opponents in a sustained conflict and it looks like drones win wars right now.
They don't need to engage in traditional warfare. It's enough to bring their products near their enemy and ask for payment in exchange for them. You know, what merchants do. The enemy is stubborn and insists in "paying" them with fake monopoly money, they are stubborn and don't discharge their merchandise. The people in the enemy country as so accustomed to high-quality cheap products that they want them more than a corrupt government, and would gladly rise against it if, say, their traditional Christmas presents are at risk.
It serves another purpose: Deterring potential enemies and giving confidence to allies. For example, the US has contributed to international peace East Asia for generations in part by having underlying muscle available. And today, if the US military tech was removed, I have a hard time imagining that alliances with Japan, S Korea, and others, not to mention Taiwan's freedom, would survive.
Wait, what? Did you miss the bit where they bombed North Korea until they had killed about one fifth of the population, and destroyed basically every form of standing shelter? Or the war in Vietnam? Or the support for South Korean dictators, even as they murdered their own people?
If that's a contribution to international peace, I hate to imagine what you'd think was a contribution to regional instability.
Even on a modern level, I think it's arguable that the 90's gulf war, and then the 2000's one, were the drivers behind a massive up-arming amongst states around the world that saw themselves as on the US's potential 'regime change' hitlist. It's often touted as a reason for China's massive arms buildup, for example.
If that's a contribution to international peace, I hate to imagine what you'd think was a contribution to regional instability.
Even on a modern level, I think it's arguable that the 90's gulf war, and then the 2000's one, were the drivers behind a massive up-arming amongst states around the world that saw themselves as on the US's potential 'regime change' hitlist. It's often touted as a reason for China's massive arms buildup, for example.
The US has done plenty of terrible things. It’s impossible to be certain of how much of the relative peace we have today is because of the United States.
Overall I’d say it’s probably done more good than harm.
Overall I’d say it’s probably done more good than harm.
You have to sort of narrow down 'today', though - in europe, you can argue US influence was a source of peace in the post-war era. In east asia, the post-war era was actually extremely bloody.
I think the one thing east asian states tend to have in spades is pragmatism. The US, on the other hand, is very often engaging in the region for ideological reasons. For that reason, it has tended to engage in bloody, somewhat pointless wars that have often span out into civil wars in neighboring states (Cambodia, for example) or produced traumatized, basketcase states (North Korea, for example, or pre-revolution South Korea).
I think the one thing east asian states tend to have in spades is pragmatism. The US, on the other hand, is very often engaging in the region for ideological reasons. For that reason, it has tended to engage in bloody, somewhat pointless wars that have often span out into civil wars in neighboring states (Cambodia, for example) or produced traumatized, basketcase states (North Korea, for example, or pre-revolution South Korea).
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War is peace?
No. The threat of war looming over 40 something countries for 60 years has kept them from going to war with each other, at the cost of having to go to war in a handful of countries for some years.
The country-years of war in the region between 1950 and 2010 could potentially have been in the order of 1000s, but has been in the low 100s.
I'm not saying US threat of war did actually prevent a lot of smaller wars in the region to occur.
I'm also not saying if it did, that it was a good thing. (Maybe like with forest fires, many small wars are better than a few big ones.)
But that's the argument used by people favouring this US threat of war.
The country-years of war in the region between 1950 and 2010 could potentially have been in the order of 1000s, but has been in the low 100s.
I'm not saying US threat of war did actually prevent a lot of smaller wars in the region to occur.
I'm also not saying if it did, that it was a good thing. (Maybe like with forest fires, many small wars are better than a few big ones.)
But that's the argument used by people favouring this US threat of war.
> The threat of war looming over 40 something countries for 60 years has kept them from going to war with each other
It's more the promise of security. War comes from insecurity (or for a few among non-democratic countries, the desire to take something from someone). The US security guarantee for Japan, S Korea, etc. meant that they could act with security.
It's more the promise of security. War comes from insecurity (or for a few among non-democratic countries, the desire to take something from someone). The US security guarantee for Japan, S Korea, etc. meant that they could act with security.
A threat of war over one country is security for all of its neighbours.
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I think that's partially why the United States is perpetually in some kind of war.
If you're the global superpower with an empire built on military might, you have to constantly practice your craft, and nothing beats the real thing.
And putting your capabilities on public display in a real theatre provides the entire world with the proof of violence (PoV) you are able to summon.
If you're the global superpower with an empire built on military might, you have to constantly practice your craft, and nothing beats the real thing.
And putting your capabilities on public display in a real theatre provides the entire world with the proof of violence (PoV) you are able to summon.
Arthur C. Clark's "Superiority" comes to mind ;)
Most countries have real safety concerns and their weapons are VERY effective.
I think wars in the future will be about who's better at computer science. It will be programmers vs programmers, and computer literacy will become the new military service and a national security interest
It's just the technology of the day. From an earlier day:
"Oscar Wilde issued a memorable prediction of the war of the future: "A chemist on each side will approach the frontier with a bottle."
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2003/12/22/the-ring-and-t...
"Oscar Wilde issued a memorable prediction of the war of the future: "A chemist on each side will approach the frontier with a bottle."
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2003/12/22/the-ring-and-t...
I was astonished about the rapid expansion of the list of cyber warfare forces in recent years and by the incredible mass of cyber warfare capabilities of the United States.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cyber_warfare_forces
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cyber_warfare_forces
I think it will be more psychological.
Memetic warfare.
Hell, this kind of war has been raging for decades.
Most people just don't know it.
Memetic warfare.
Hell, this kind of war has been raging for decades.
Most people just don't know it.
To me, it's very clear. Drone warfare will be the next big thing after a nuke, and ICBM.
Probably it's the only thing which can shift the power poles from the current nuclear states.
Probably it's the only thing which can shift the power poles from the current nuclear states.
Drones warfare will really have a big affect on small conflicts, not great power conflicts. Look at the recent Azerbaijan/Armenia war. Drones give the power of having a full fledged air force to small countries.
The role of drones in a big conflict is a tactical warfare again regaining critical importance.
Mid-sized drones are an unkillable airforce, following the front-line, with very small logistic footprint.
This way, nuclear countries cannot simply nuke your few airfields, and deprive your force in the field of air cover, and then bomb you with impunity with cheap bombs.
It very much means, a big conventional army can now get a decent chance to reach your capital in case of continental conflict even if you nuke all their airfields, and supply caches.
In fact, a lighter force can now have much bigger chances to win than a heavier one, burdened by expensive toys, with huge demand on supplies, which will run out of fuel in a day if the supply chain is interrupted. A tank without fuel is just a bunker with 50 cal. on top.
Mid-sized drones are an unkillable airforce, following the front-line, with very small logistic footprint.
This way, nuclear countries cannot simply nuke your few airfields, and deprive your force in the field of air cover, and then bomb you with impunity with cheap bombs.
It very much means, a big conventional army can now get a decent chance to reach your capital in case of continental conflict even if you nuke all their airfields, and supply caches.
In fact, a lighter force can now have much bigger chances to win than a heavier one, burdened by expensive toys, with huge demand on supplies, which will run out of fuel in a day if the supply chain is interrupted. A tank without fuel is just a bunker with 50 cal. on top.
satellite sabotage/hijacking/repair is a field I would foresee parallel accelerating development in. The critical path for comms and vision when paired with drones makes leo a likely playground but with the fun dynamics of many amateur astronomers being able to watch what’s going on.
In some sense, drones can replace the earlier usage of satellites, especially for countries which do not have a surveilalnce satellite fleet - satellites grant visibility of the battlefield without needing air superiority and risking your pilots; drones do the same. An in a major conflict, it's likely that the big players can take out each others' satellites (and those can't be replaced quickly/easily) but drone swarms can still provide battlefield visibility even in that case.
The small drones cheap enough to be used in swarms are very short range. They're useful for tactical intelligence but hardly a replacement for satellites.
Does anyone here know about that Seshat Databank? It looks fascinating, and I ran into it someplace else too. What is its scope? Who actually uses it and for what?