Two Triple Vaccinated Israeli Doctors Infected with Omicron(reuters.com)
reuters.com
Two Triple Vaccinated Israeli Doctors Infected with Omicron
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/two-israeli-doctors-infected-with-omicron-hospital-says-2021-11-30/
105 comments
Reuters is just reporting an event. Nobody goes to the front page of Reuters to see what stories are important. It’s aggregators like… hacker news… that are fanning the flames.
Reuters used to represent a “just the facts” news wire. But now it just isn’t. Yes this is an event in the same way that someone relapsing in cancer is an event. It alone is pointless and does not a trend make.
> Reuters used to represent a "just the facts" news wire.
After reading the article I'm still not seeing the problem. The sentences in the article are factual information, there is no obvious editorial bias like a CNN or Fox article, and there is nothing telling you how to feel (e.g. "You should be afraid" NYT title).
Reuters still seems pretty good compared to what's available out there.
After reading the article I'm still not seeing the problem. The sentences in the article are factual information, there is no obvious editorial bias like a CNN or Fox article, and there is nothing telling you how to feel (e.g. "You should be afraid" NYT title).
Reuters still seems pretty good compared to what's available out there.
Publishing the story is itself an editorial decision.
Are you asking for self-censorship of facts?
From the GP:
> Two people having breakthrough infections for any variant is not at all unlikely
The point is that this fact isn't newsworthy... unless Reuters is running an agenda. This article is blatant fearmongering.
> Two people having breakthrough infections for any variant is not at all unlikely
The point is that this fact isn't newsworthy... unless Reuters is running an agenda. This article is blatant fearmongering.
News is a two way street. People want to stay informed about Coronavirus, Reuters is happy to run stories on the topic. They've probably got a few editors focused on the topic, and maybe today was what you might call a "slow news day" in the industry. You can't stand in front of the firehose and complain about being wet though.
I most certainly can when the person operating the firehose does so under the guise of professional standards where they claim to only use their granted powers to inform, not to convince or persuade. Reuters isn’t like CNN or Fox who hide their prime time talking heads behind some technicality of “entertainment vs news”. Reuters claims to be news, full stop. If they live by that sword they better be prepared to be judged by that sword
Of course it's news. Governments are massively ramping up booster programmes specifically because of Omicron, and here are two doctors at the very same hospital who had it despite having had three shots. Note these are not "two random doctors separated in time by a large amount", they're two doctors who work together. Conclusion: booster shots do not stop people getting it or getting infected.
People flagging this thread are in denial. This is an event of direct relevance to the justification for government policies affecting billions of people, that's why Reuters considers it newsworthy.
People flagging this thread are in denial. This is an event of direct relevance to the justification for government policies affecting billions of people, that's why Reuters considers it newsworthy.
> Conclusion: booster shots do not stop people getting it or getting infected.
...and that's a non-news. We know that, we didn't expect anything else for a long time now since it's also true for other variants. Booster policies were made with that information already taken into account.
...and that's a non-news. We know that, we didn't expect anything else for a long time now since it's also true for other variants. Booster policies were made with that information already taken into account.
A whole lot of people don't realize that. BBC News quoted just a few days ago someone saying that vaccine passports made her feel safe, because she knows everyone is tested, recovered or vaccinated. The fact that she can still get COVID from other vaccinated people hadn't registered and the BBC didn't bother pointing it out.
Two examples is not remotely proof that "booster shots do not stop people getting it or getting infected."
Stop pushing this agenda. It is ignorant and false.
Stop pushing this agenda. It is ignorant and false.
It is an existence proof of two. People, in this case two people, did get it.
I'm honestly having trouble deciding if you're trolling or not. Do you really not understand that it's not binary but about the chances? isn't it simply how many out of a some big number of vaccinated got it and how bad did they get it, versus how many out of the same big number of non-vaccinated people got it, and how bad did they get it?
Yes, we all understand that. You have to use Bayesian reasoning here. The prior probability of one person infecting another they've spent little time next to, if the vaccines are "extremely effective" to use the claims we've all heard, is very, very low. That's the whole point of saying the vaccines are effective.
What you're arguing is that this event is merely an extreme fluke that a hungry press managed to dredge out of ... somewhere. That doesn't hold water because Omicron is only days old as a recognized variant at all, and these aren't 'two random people' but rather one clearly and recognizably infecting another in a low density space (e.g. not a conference or other big accumulation of people), despite that they're doctors and thus highly vaccinated.
Now, here's something to chew on. The claims of vaccine efficacy you keep reading are all wrong. They aren't measures of relative likelihoods of getting infected as you might imagine. They are heavily adjusted using a statistical methodology that's known to malfunction in the presence of variants. The raw, unadjusted data is unfortunately hidden almost everywhere, except England, where the public health authorities publish it alongside the adjusted numbers. And the raw numbers show that vaccination makes people more likely to get infected, not less. The rates per 100k are higher in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.
This has led to the ultimate absurdity of the UK public health agency claiming, "Comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 infection".
https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/ukhsa-efficacy-stats-death-...
Someone made a dashboard you can use the explore the UK numbers here:
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/t.coddington/viz/UKRe...
What you're arguing is that this event is merely an extreme fluke that a hungry press managed to dredge out of ... somewhere. That doesn't hold water because Omicron is only days old as a recognized variant at all, and these aren't 'two random people' but rather one clearly and recognizably infecting another in a low density space (e.g. not a conference or other big accumulation of people), despite that they're doctors and thus highly vaccinated.
Now, here's something to chew on. The claims of vaccine efficacy you keep reading are all wrong. They aren't measures of relative likelihoods of getting infected as you might imagine. They are heavily adjusted using a statistical methodology that's known to malfunction in the presence of variants. The raw, unadjusted data is unfortunately hidden almost everywhere, except England, where the public health authorities publish it alongside the adjusted numbers. And the raw numbers show that vaccination makes people more likely to get infected, not less. The rates per 100k are higher in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.
This has led to the ultimate absurdity of the UK public health agency claiming, "Comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 infection".
https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/ukhsa-efficacy-stats-death-...
Someone made a dashboard you can use the explore the UK numbers here:
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/t.coddington/viz/UKRe...
You want to hear all of the facts? Well, sit down and get comfy, we are going to be here for a while…
Journalists should strive for neutrality (good ones try to despite what boulevard tells you, they are on a completely different mission) even if they can never reach it. A case where neutrality fails often is deciding what is newsworthy and what is not.
That said, I don't see that as egregious and of interest because the effectiveness of the vaccine against this mutation is as well. It does not provide answers and the focus on the researchers is questionable, but I don't really see it as a problem or fear mongering.
That said, I don't see that as egregious and of interest because the effectiveness of the vaccine against this mutation is as well. It does not provide answers and the focus on the researchers is questionable, but I don't really see it as a problem or fear mongering.
I disagree that COVID was a bane for the news industry - I think it’s been a great boon to them. People locked down in their apartments with nothing else to do but refresh news sites and Twitter and have their chosen news network tell them how the other side is making it worse, all against the backdrop of an election? This is modern media’s wet dream and they’ve pounced on it.
Fuck I mixed up my banes and boons. In my defense I’m a tad drunk and ran out of cocaine
This isn't helping your credibility.
You’d be shocked to learn how much you consider credible was discovered, discussed or announced under the influence of either alcohol or cocaine.. or both.
That’s a definite bane.. er, boon.
[deleted]
Both my parents, sister, and a slew of friends and co-workers have had "breakthrough infections" from covid, I'm not really sure (if you're not getting boosters) whether you even have protection from regular let alone Omicron at this point.
That only means you're in the place with a lot virus flowing around, nothing else. Vaccine stimulate your immune system to lower the chance to get infected, and even if infected much lower chance to get severely damaged.
I’m not sure your explanation is sound. Studies have shown doctors/nurses get sick (pre-Covid) at more or less the same rate as the rest of the population, despite increased exposure to circulating colds and flus. Explanations ranged from “they get vaccinated more” to “background exposure to very low payloads primes the immune system and keeps them healthier.”
I am thinking that maybe doctors/nurses have two factors that cancel out so it makes their infected numbers look like the rest of the population:
- higher exposure
but also
- better, and stricter safety measures that are really followed
- higher exposure
but also
- better, and stricter safety measures that are really followed
I hate to put it in these terms, but do you have credible peer reviewed literature on this claim? What you're saying is exactly what state media & state authorities started espousing after everyone realized the vaccine didn't offer the protection everyone had assumed and been promised. I'm wondering if there is any actual evidence for their claims or if it's just saving face and moving goal posts.
Very few people have been talking about it responsibly throughout the course. It’s become a weird morality issue and anyone taking about it from that position is adding to the problem regardless of moral stance, and the morality isn’t even being done correctly focusing on the actual issues.
I guess it’s just a symptom of the attention economy and the bad state of education and ability for independent thought everywhere.
I guess it’s just a symptom of the attention economy and the bad state of education and ability for independent thought everywhere.
Disease has always been viewed through a moral lens. Plague was from sin, aids was from sin. We have always judged the sick through a moral lens and only through hindsight do we see how terrible that was. And then we repeat the same mistake.
I am confident that the people giving out so called “Herman Cain Awards” for COVID will be judged as harshly as we judge those who called HIV the gay plague.
I am confident that the people giving out so called “Herman Cain Awards” for COVID will be judged as harshly as we judge those who called HIV the gay plague.
It’s possible. My understanding though is that “Hermain Cain Awards” go out to folks who fall into several categories.
They deny the virus exists/ is dangerous.
They don’t take precautions, like masks or get vaccinated.
The advocate against folks who get vaccinated calling them “sheep” or other names.
On one hand, many of these folks have fallen victim to disinformation and one political party in America that’s trying to actively hurt them for some sort of gain. So yea maybe it’s not their fault. On the other hand, my friend got accosted trying to get his kiddo vaxxed by one of these folks. Not cool.
They deny the virus exists/ is dangerous.
They don’t take precautions, like masks or get vaccinated.
The advocate against folks who get vaccinated calling them “sheep” or other names.
On one hand, many of these folks have fallen victim to disinformation and one political party in America that’s trying to actively hurt them for some sort of gain. So yea maybe it’s not their fault. On the other hand, my friend got accosted trying to get his kiddo vaxxed by one of these folks. Not cool.
> I am confident that the people giving out so called “Herman Cain Awards” for COVID will be judged as harshly as we judge those who called HIV the gay plague.
I’m not so sure. If there were a safe, free and widely available vaccine for HIV and gay men were going out of their way to shout about not taking it then I think the situation may have been comparable.
I’m not so sure. If there were a safe, free and widely available vaccine for HIV and gay men were going out of their way to shout about not taking it then I think the situation may have been comparable.
[deleted]
As a counterpoint I wonder how many thousands of lives we could have/would have saved if we reported on delta with the same type of urgency. We don't have the facts yet, and every story I've seen underscores that point. But to just say "we don't know so let's ignore it entirely until we do" seems to minimize the deadliness of the past mutations we've seen.
It is just as irresponsible to say “we don’t have all the facts… but it could render vaccines useless and reinfect everyone and spread like measles and kill like small pox”.
Ignoring it is irresponsible. Panicking is irresponsible. This isn’t a difficult or new concept! Each year the flu is a new “variant” and every single year it has the _potential_ to be 1918 all over again. But we don’t close borders and force quarantine until we have proof it isn’t 1918 bad. We study it, we prepare vaccines and we take reasonable precautions
Ignoring it is irresponsible. Panicking is irresponsible. This isn’t a difficult or new concept! Each year the flu is a new “variant” and every single year it has the _potential_ to be 1918 all over again. But we don’t close borders and force quarantine until we have proof it isn’t 1918 bad. We study it, we prepare vaccines and we take reasonable precautions
I think our top doctor here in bc said it wonderfully. We must anticipate and plan for the worst even as we hope for the best.
It isn't asking for much after what we've been through to go a month with more caution. If we had a 1918 flu, and then another strain worse than that within 2 years, of course we might take some precautions when we find a 3rd strain overtaking the 2nd strain.
It isn't asking for much after what we've been through to go a month with more caution. If we had a 1918 flu, and then another strain worse than that within 2 years, of course we might take some precautions when we find a 3rd strain overtaking the 2nd strain.
How is this news? We've known for some time that the vaccines are leaky, and they appear to be working in regards to keeping the doctors out of the hospital and only afflicted with mild symptoms.
We've entered a culture fueled by indignation, where every apparent slight contradiction is waved like a flag and denounced as a conspiracy.
Reality is nuanced. That's all been lost in public discourse. Because there's no thrill in that.
Reality is nuanced. That's all been lost in public discourse. Because there's no thrill in that.
> Because there's no thrill in that
No, it's because there's no political gain in that. This is a result of politicizing everything.
No, it's because there's no political gain in that. This is a result of politicizing everything.
Not why the rank and file do it. It may be politically related, but most folks are just essentially trolling. It's become a national pastime
Trolling as a national pastime - I think you're onto something!
Exactly. To be perfectly honest, if Omicron had 100% breakthrough rate but still was 95% effective at preventing severe disease and hospitalization, that is still amazing. In the developed world where vaccines are incredibly easy to obtain, we need to move on.
Yes we need to protect the people who can’t receive a vaccine, and we need to help the world distribute the vaccine but we need to stop this constant state of emergency
Yes we need to protect the people who can’t receive a vaccine, and we need to help the world distribute the vaccine but we need to stop this constant state of emergency
Yes, you see this as people point out that Gibraltar, a place that is supposedly 100% vaccinated, is experiencing an outbreak of 3000 cases since June.
What they leave out is that 4 people have died in Gibraltar of Covid since that outbreak started. In January before vaccines were available, they had an earlier outbreak of 3000 cases. Close to 100 people died during that outbreak.
This seems like a very obvious case study on the effectiveness of the vaccine, yet the vaccine skeptic analysis seems to stop at the cases and concludes that the vaccine is ineffective. When in reality, it's working fantastically well at preventing the most serious cases that lead to death.
What they leave out is that 4 people have died in Gibraltar of Covid since that outbreak started. In January before vaccines were available, they had an earlier outbreak of 3000 cases. Close to 100 people died during that outbreak.
This seems like a very obvious case study on the effectiveness of the vaccine, yet the vaccine skeptic analysis seems to stop at the cases and concludes that the vaccine is ineffective. When in reality, it's working fantastically well at preventing the most serious cases that lead to death.
> vaccine skeptic analysis seems to stop at the cases and concludes that the vaccine is ineffective
This is not accurate. It's the mandates which most people have problems with, not the vaccine. Mandating something which doesn't prevent transmission under coercion from the government is illogical. The current shots are basically potential severe symptom mitigator - which if you think you would benefit, you should take it. It should not be mandated.
Here in Canada:
The Supreme Court of Canada has repeatedly recognized "the right of a patient to decide what, if anything, should be done with his body" and that no treatment can be given to a competent patient without their "voluntary informed consent." A treating doctor avoids liability for battery only with a valid and informed consent. The doctor must explain the risks and is legally and ethically obliged to treat within the confines of that consent. An aspect of the respect for human dignity is the right to make fundamental personal decisions without interference from the state.
However, the same liability considerations do not apply to a patient's right to refuse treatment which is an inherent component of the supremacy of the patient's right over his own body. That right to refuse treatment is not premised on an understanding of the risks of refusal. A patient has the right to refuse treatment regardless of whether it is necessary to preserve their life or health. People must have the right to make choices that accord with their own values "regardless of how unwise or foolish those choices may appear to others". The right "to decide one’s own fate" includes the unqualified right to refuse life-saving medical treatment."
Source for Canada SCC rulings on voluntary informed consent:
https://canlii.ca/t/1ftjt
https://canlii.ca/t/1mjv6
https://canlii.ca/t/1p78q
https://canlii.ca/t/g1757
https://canlii.ca/t/24432
This is not accurate. It's the mandates which most people have problems with, not the vaccine. Mandating something which doesn't prevent transmission under coercion from the government is illogical. The current shots are basically potential severe symptom mitigator - which if you think you would benefit, you should take it. It should not be mandated.
Here in Canada:
The Supreme Court of Canada has repeatedly recognized "the right of a patient to decide what, if anything, should be done with his body" and that no treatment can be given to a competent patient without their "voluntary informed consent." A treating doctor avoids liability for battery only with a valid and informed consent. The doctor must explain the risks and is legally and ethically obliged to treat within the confines of that consent. An aspect of the respect for human dignity is the right to make fundamental personal decisions without interference from the state.
However, the same liability considerations do not apply to a patient's right to refuse treatment which is an inherent component of the supremacy of the patient's right over his own body. That right to refuse treatment is not premised on an understanding of the risks of refusal. A patient has the right to refuse treatment regardless of whether it is necessary to preserve their life or health. People must have the right to make choices that accord with their own values "regardless of how unwise or foolish those choices may appear to others". The right "to decide one’s own fate" includes the unqualified right to refuse life-saving medical treatment."
Source for Canada SCC rulings on voluntary informed consent:
https://canlii.ca/t/1ftjt
https://canlii.ca/t/1mjv6
https://canlii.ca/t/1p78q
https://canlii.ca/t/g1757
https://canlii.ca/t/24432
I am a bit on the fence with Vaccine mandates, I wish they weren't necessary.
But I get the key reason for them, which you have missed, is it isn't really about the health choices of the person getting vaccinated.
If your vaccination status affected no-one but yourself then I would be strongly against any vaccine mandate. If you are unvaccinated you are more likely to get infected, that is your risk. But, if you do get infected then you are MUCH more likely to pass the virus onto other people, including cancer patients etc who cannot be vaccinated. You are also likely to clog up the hospital system for an extended time, causing everyone else to receive a poor standard of care as the healthcare system strains.
This is the issue. Someone's decision to not get vaccinated has severe impacts on other people. Its NOT just about them, and if they say it is just about them then they are being incredibly selfish.
But I get the key reason for them, which you have missed, is it isn't really about the health choices of the person getting vaccinated.
If your vaccination status affected no-one but yourself then I would be strongly against any vaccine mandate. If you are unvaccinated you are more likely to get infected, that is your risk. But, if you do get infected then you are MUCH more likely to pass the virus onto other people, including cancer patients etc who cannot be vaccinated. You are also likely to clog up the hospital system for an extended time, causing everyone else to receive a poor standard of care as the healthcare system strains.
This is the issue. Someone's decision to not get vaccinated has severe impacts on other people. Its NOT just about them, and if they say it is just about them then they are being incredibly selfish.
"if you do get infected then you are MUCH more likely to pass the virus onto other people"
No, that isn't the case. Studies have shown there's no difference in infectiousness or viral loads between the vaccinated and unvaccinated, and the original clinical trials didn't even measure infectiousness at all let alone reduce it.
But this hardly matters. Even if there was some small improvement in infectiousness, so what? Vaccines aren't free. They cause collateral damage: some people end up injured, other people end up dead. Given that the virus/viruses are endemic at this point there is no real benefit to reducing infectiousness by some percentage, as vulnerable people will (supposedly) end up getting it anyway no matter what.
Also re: morality. This idea that refusing a vaccine is selfishness is itself enormous selfishness. You are asking healthy young people who are not at risk of COVID to take a risk of getting sick from the vaccine. It seems often that people who push this "vaccines are moral purity" angle cannot really handle this fact and go into denial about it, but there are many such stories out there, and databases filled with reports of such injuries. When you are demanding healthy young people risk sacrificing their own health, just to make you a bit less scared or to give an 80 year old another 8 months of life, it doesn't look like any recognizable morality to me.
No, that isn't the case. Studies have shown there's no difference in infectiousness or viral loads between the vaccinated and unvaccinated, and the original clinical trials didn't even measure infectiousness at all let alone reduce it.
But this hardly matters. Even if there was some small improvement in infectiousness, so what? Vaccines aren't free. They cause collateral damage: some people end up injured, other people end up dead. Given that the virus/viruses are endemic at this point there is no real benefit to reducing infectiousness by some percentage, as vulnerable people will (supposedly) end up getting it anyway no matter what.
Also re: morality. This idea that refusing a vaccine is selfishness is itself enormous selfishness. You are asking healthy young people who are not at risk of COVID to take a risk of getting sick from the vaccine. It seems often that people who push this "vaccines are moral purity" angle cannot really handle this fact and go into denial about it, but there are many such stories out there, and databases filled with reports of such injuries. When you are demanding healthy young people risk sacrificing their own health, just to make you a bit less scared or to give an 80 year old another 8 months of life, it doesn't look like any recognizable morality to me.
What you are describing falls under "discrimination based on perceived disability" which both Canadian Supreme Court and US Supreme Court have repeatedly frowned upon.
The Ontario Human Rights Code includes "any degree of infirmity" in the definition of disability. They also recognize that the definition of disability extends to the actual or perceived possibility that a person may develop a disability in the future. "Anticipated" disabilities are covered where a person is not currently disabled, but are treated adversely because of a perception that they will eventually become disabled, become a burden, pose a risk, and/or require accommodation. OHRC requires that focus should always be on the current abilities of a person and the situation’s current risks rather than on limitations or risks that may or may not arise in the future.
Our courts have repeatedly recognized that all aspects of contagious diseases such as tuberculosis, HIV etc, constitute a disability. This includes the period of asymptomatic infection. In cases such as Biggs v. Hudson and others, Canadian courts have often relied on the United States Supreme Court ruling in School Board of Nassau County v. Arline which stated that a person with the contagious disease of tuberculosis was considered a "handicapped individual" and soundly rejected the argument that the exclusion could be justified on the basis of "pernicious mythologies" or "irrational fear." The court held that it would be wrong to permit discrimination “between the effects of a disease on others and the effects of a disease on a patient and use that distinction to justify discriminatory treatment.”
Therefore, tuberculosis is included in the definition of "disability". Due to the similar contagious nature and social stigma associated with COVID-19, it also fits the definition of a "disability".
Look up Biggs v. Hudson for Canadian or School Board of Nassau County v. Arline for SCOTUS ruling regarding perceived disability discrimination which was about Tuberculosis and included asymptomatic infection.
In Gehman v. Seyffert, BC's human rights tribunal allowed discrimination based on perceived disability to be amended when a landlord kicked out a tenant just because she was coughing and he thought she had COVID.
Anderson v. Exxon Co. is another US case that stated that "prejudice in the sense of a judgment or opinion formed before the facts are known is the fountainhead of discrimination engulfing medical disabilities which prove on examination to be unrelated to job performance or to be non-existent."
Also, your assumption is incorrect. The week between Nov 6 and Nov 13, 53.96% of Canada's cases were fully vaxed, whereas 38.52% were unvaccinated and rest were partially vaxxed or under the 14 day period. I understand that Canada has high vaccination rate. But that doesn't explain the much faster growth of the fully vaccinated cases after 3-6 months of the vaccination and the rate of fully vaccinated is much higher than the rate of vaccinations.
As I pointed out in my other comment, mild cases in vaccinated have the same viral load as unvaccinated:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29400950
If the goal is to prevent the spread of COVID, why would you only focus on the 39% and not on the 54% (and quickly rising due to waning effectiveness as vast majority of Canada's vaccinations occurred in the last 3-4 months). And why would you not allow testing as a sufficient measure - which would be even better than allowing 54% fully vaccinated cases?
In fact, in Ontario, the government admits testing is good enough because they didn't mandate it for health care workers as well as the politicians themselves:
> "We expect that if people have not received the vaccine, they are being tested regularly before they go into anyone’s homes or before they go to work in hospitals. But there are safeguards in place for people currently. If they’re not vaccinated, they need to be tested regularly to ensure that it is safe for them to go into someone’s home."
https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/house-documents/...
The Ontario government has also allowed natural immunity for Member of Parliaments but not for citizens:
> "But on August 18, the government whip issued notice to government MPPs that they’re required to vaccinate unless they can provide a medical exemption or a physician’s note that vaccination is “unnecessary by reason of past infection or laboratory evidence of immunity.”"
https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/house-documents/...
The Ontario Human Rights Code includes "any degree of infirmity" in the definition of disability. They also recognize that the definition of disability extends to the actual or perceived possibility that a person may develop a disability in the future. "Anticipated" disabilities are covered where a person is not currently disabled, but are treated adversely because of a perception that they will eventually become disabled, become a burden, pose a risk, and/or require accommodation. OHRC requires that focus should always be on the current abilities of a person and the situation’s current risks rather than on limitations or risks that may or may not arise in the future.
Our courts have repeatedly recognized that all aspects of contagious diseases such as tuberculosis, HIV etc, constitute a disability. This includes the period of asymptomatic infection. In cases such as Biggs v. Hudson and others, Canadian courts have often relied on the United States Supreme Court ruling in School Board of Nassau County v. Arline which stated that a person with the contagious disease of tuberculosis was considered a "handicapped individual" and soundly rejected the argument that the exclusion could be justified on the basis of "pernicious mythologies" or "irrational fear." The court held that it would be wrong to permit discrimination “between the effects of a disease on others and the effects of a disease on a patient and use that distinction to justify discriminatory treatment.”
Therefore, tuberculosis is included in the definition of "disability". Due to the similar contagious nature and social stigma associated with COVID-19, it also fits the definition of a "disability".
Look up Biggs v. Hudson for Canadian or School Board of Nassau County v. Arline for SCOTUS ruling regarding perceived disability discrimination which was about Tuberculosis and included asymptomatic infection.
In Gehman v. Seyffert, BC's human rights tribunal allowed discrimination based on perceived disability to be amended when a landlord kicked out a tenant just because she was coughing and he thought she had COVID.
Anderson v. Exxon Co. is another US case that stated that "prejudice in the sense of a judgment or opinion formed before the facts are known is the fountainhead of discrimination engulfing medical disabilities which prove on examination to be unrelated to job performance or to be non-existent."
Also, your assumption is incorrect. The week between Nov 6 and Nov 13, 53.96% of Canada's cases were fully vaxed, whereas 38.52% were unvaccinated and rest were partially vaxxed or under the 14 day period. I understand that Canada has high vaccination rate. But that doesn't explain the much faster growth of the fully vaccinated cases after 3-6 months of the vaccination and the rate of fully vaccinated is much higher than the rate of vaccinations.
As I pointed out in my other comment, mild cases in vaccinated have the same viral load as unvaccinated:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29400950
If the goal is to prevent the spread of COVID, why would you only focus on the 39% and not on the 54% (and quickly rising due to waning effectiveness as vast majority of Canada's vaccinations occurred in the last 3-4 months). And why would you not allow testing as a sufficient measure - which would be even better than allowing 54% fully vaccinated cases?
In fact, in Ontario, the government admits testing is good enough because they didn't mandate it for health care workers as well as the politicians themselves:
> "We expect that if people have not received the vaccine, they are being tested regularly before they go into anyone’s homes or before they go to work in hospitals. But there are safeguards in place for people currently. If they’re not vaccinated, they need to be tested regularly to ensure that it is safe for them to go into someone’s home."
https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/house-documents/...
The Ontario government has also allowed natural immunity for Member of Parliaments but not for citizens:
> "But on August 18, the government whip issued notice to government MPPs that they’re required to vaccinate unless they can provide a medical exemption or a physician’s note that vaccination is “unnecessary by reason of past infection or laboratory evidence of immunity.”"
https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/house-documents/...
I know people who aren't vaccinated. You aren't forced to do anything at all. You just can't be expected to be able to do anything you want (go into crowded restaurants for example). Also mps who aren't vaccinated aren't allowed to take their seats in parliament. These are very sound public safety measures.
The statistics on the vaccines are very clear. Misinterpreting the data doesn't change their worldwide objective effectiveness at preventing our hospitals from filling up. Think of it as the same health measures we've put in place against public smoking. You're free to smoke or be unvacced all you want, just don't do it around me, thanks.
The statistics on the vaccines are very clear. Misinterpreting the data doesn't change their worldwide objective effectiveness at preventing our hospitals from filling up. Think of it as the same health measures we've put in place against public smoking. You're free to smoke or be unvacced all you want, just don't do it around me, thanks.
I just wanted to say bravo for your last two posts in this chain. I learned a lot; thank you.
Thank you for your informative reply.
You are right, regular (as in, weekly or more frequently) testing should also prove effective at preventing the spread amongst both vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
But, the key there is you would have to trust people to do the right thing, and actually get tested, and isolate if they test positive. I'm not confident that enough people who won't get vaccinated would comply with that.
And you are misusing statistics when you say that a greater growth of cases amongst the vaccinated proves the vaccine doesn't prevent the spread. Everyone knows the vaccine doesn't 100% prevent you catching covid, no surprise there. But it does slow it somewhat, and most crucuially it does greatly reduce your chances of dying or being hospitalized. I'm too lazy to link references, but a quick google would show you plenty of reputable sources with statistics showing you are much safer vaccinated than unvaccinated.
Regarding the greater growth of cases amongst the vaccinated, many, many things explain this. For a start, 76% of Canada's population is vaccinated. So, if the vaccine had no effect then you'd expect 76% of all new cases would be amongst the vaccinated. You stated the actual measure is 53%, so clearly the vaccine is preventing a lot of the spread.
But in the end of the day, setting aside the whole issue of should the vaccine should be mandated or not, disagreeing with the mandate is not a valid reason to not get vaccinated. Just get vaccinated. Once you disregard all the crazy, crazy conspiracy theories about the vaccine "magentizing" your body, or changing your DNA or causing infertility then you are left with a real, but infantesimal risk of a bad reaction to the vaccine. A rational comparison of the risks of getting vaccinated vs the risks of not getting vaccinated cleary shows there is no valid reson to not get vaccinated except a tiny fraction of people who cannot get vaccinated due to valid medical advice.
You are right, regular (as in, weekly or more frequently) testing should also prove effective at preventing the spread amongst both vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
But, the key there is you would have to trust people to do the right thing, and actually get tested, and isolate if they test positive. I'm not confident that enough people who won't get vaccinated would comply with that.
And you are misusing statistics when you say that a greater growth of cases amongst the vaccinated proves the vaccine doesn't prevent the spread. Everyone knows the vaccine doesn't 100% prevent you catching covid, no surprise there. But it does slow it somewhat, and most crucuially it does greatly reduce your chances of dying or being hospitalized. I'm too lazy to link references, but a quick google would show you plenty of reputable sources with statistics showing you are much safer vaccinated than unvaccinated.
Regarding the greater growth of cases amongst the vaccinated, many, many things explain this. For a start, 76% of Canada's population is vaccinated. So, if the vaccine had no effect then you'd expect 76% of all new cases would be amongst the vaccinated. You stated the actual measure is 53%, so clearly the vaccine is preventing a lot of the spread.
But in the end of the day, setting aside the whole issue of should the vaccine should be mandated or not, disagreeing with the mandate is not a valid reason to not get vaccinated. Just get vaccinated. Once you disregard all the crazy, crazy conspiracy theories about the vaccine "magentizing" your body, or changing your DNA or causing infertility then you are left with a real, but infantesimal risk of a bad reaction to the vaccine. A rational comparison of the risks of getting vaccinated vs the risks of not getting vaccinated cleary shows there is no valid reson to not get vaccinated except a tiny fraction of people who cannot get vaccinated due to valid medical advice.
I was going to reply but your last paragraph tells me you are bringing some unnecessary biased baggage and stereotyping me as believing in nonsense. I suggest reaching out to a variety of people who are against mandates and you would understand that vast majority of them don’t believe in the nonsense which you are stereotyping me as.
I am not misusing stats. your paragraph about the fully vaccinated cases vs fully vaccinated % in Canada seems to missed the point I made. I stated that week but week, that % has risen and a lot faster now after 3-6 months. Ontario had a 19% jump in fully vaccinated cases between October 10 and November 10. Our fully vaccinated % barely rose in that time. Canada had under 10% vaccinations till June 10th so vast majority of our full vaccinations happened in the last 3-5 months. So as we are now coming off the honeymoon period, the cases of fully vaccinated are drastically rising again.
Firstly, the objectives which our Canadian government has claimed for the mandates claim that vaccines somehow prevent transmission - which is simply not true. And obviously they are not 100% effective - the problem is that these effectiveness drops to 3%-66% after 3-6 months. This is not his typical vaccines for polio, measles etc work.
And if you look at stats from Ireland, Iceland, Belgium, Netherlands, Singapore, UK, Germany etc, you would know the shots aren’t doing what you are claiming they are doing. I have been following this daily and have family in 3 of those countries.
I am not misusing stats. your paragraph about the fully vaccinated cases vs fully vaccinated % in Canada seems to missed the point I made. I stated that week but week, that % has risen and a lot faster now after 3-6 months. Ontario had a 19% jump in fully vaccinated cases between October 10 and November 10. Our fully vaccinated % barely rose in that time. Canada had under 10% vaccinations till June 10th so vast majority of our full vaccinations happened in the last 3-5 months. So as we are now coming off the honeymoon period, the cases of fully vaccinated are drastically rising again.
Firstly, the objectives which our Canadian government has claimed for the mandates claim that vaccines somehow prevent transmission - which is simply not true. And obviously they are not 100% effective - the problem is that these effectiveness drops to 3%-66% after 3-6 months. This is not his typical vaccines for polio, measles etc work.
And if you look at stats from Ireland, Iceland, Belgium, Netherlands, Singapore, UK, Germany etc, you would know the shots aren’t doing what you are claiming they are doing. I have been following this daily and have family in 3 of those countries.
This is exactly right. Vaccine mandates are the problem, as the US government has done for government employees, and Biden is attempting to do for all employers with over 100 employees. Almost every single person agrees the vaccines are a good thing (now that Trump is out of office) but this specific vaccine goes a step further and does not stop the spread of the virus. Some articles and data extrapolation studies claim it reduces the spread by 5 to even 50 percent in some cases, but it is extremely obvious vaccinated are spreading the disease nearly as much as non vaccinated. Since hospitals never were overwhelmed since COVID began, I don’t even know why the US government is still allowed to make the case that we should be in a state of emergency and under emergency rules passed by the president and governors. All of the lockdowns and emergency orders should have been halted until hospitals were actually overwhelmed, not just projected to be overwhelmed. When it is a real emergency the army will need to set up bases or ships to be hospitals, not just a few doctors working overtime, like they always did already.
No one is mandating that you be vaccinated in Canada. They're just saying don't go to restaurants or bars or other places if you aren't since you're more likely to spread the disease.
Air-travel is an essential service according to Canadian Air Transport Security Authority (Crown corporation).
https://www.catsa-acsta.gc.ca/en/covid19-response
You aren't allowed to air-travel without COVID shots. Is that not mandatory then?
Also the courts have stated before that:
> "at the very least, liberty must include those freedoms of lawful conduct always enjoyed by Canadians and by our predecessors in the Anglo-Saxon heritage. If we have enjoyed a right for many centuries then it must surely be included in "liberty" whether specifically stated in the Charter or not."
If one had been able to access centuries old liberties like gyms, restaurants, weddings, funerals etc without disclosing private medical data, then they are covered under Section 7 of the Canadian Charter regarding liberty and privacy is covered under both s.7 and s.8 of the Charter.
> if you aren't since you're more likely to spread the disease
This is inaccurate. Even in mild symptom cases, vaccinated and unvaccinated infections harbour the same levels of viral load. The Delta variant is able to grow in the noses of vaccinated people to the same degree as if they were not vaccinated at all and both groups can unknowingly and unwittingly transmit the virus for 3 days before experiencing any symptoms in 75% of the Delta variant infections.
https://www.catsa-acsta.gc.ca/en/covid19-response
You aren't allowed to air-travel without COVID shots. Is that not mandatory then?
Also the courts have stated before that:
> "at the very least, liberty must include those freedoms of lawful conduct always enjoyed by Canadians and by our predecessors in the Anglo-Saxon heritage. If we have enjoyed a right for many centuries then it must surely be included in "liberty" whether specifically stated in the Charter or not."
If one had been able to access centuries old liberties like gyms, restaurants, weddings, funerals etc without disclosing private medical data, then they are covered under Section 7 of the Canadian Charter regarding liberty and privacy is covered under both s.7 and s.8 of the Charter.
> if you aren't since you're more likely to spread the disease
This is inaccurate. Even in mild symptom cases, vaccinated and unvaccinated infections harbour the same levels of viral load. The Delta variant is able to grow in the noses of vaccinated people to the same degree as if they were not vaccinated at all and both groups can unknowingly and unwittingly transmit the virus for 3 days before experiencing any symptoms in 75% of the Delta variant infections.
> This is inaccurate. Even in mild symptom cases, vaccinated and unvaccinated infections harbour the same levels of viral load. The Delta variant is able to grow in the noses of vaccinated people to the same degree as if they were not vaccinated at all and both groups can unknowingly and unwittingly transmit the virus for 3 days before experiencing any symptoms in 75% of the Delta variant infections.
It's more nuanced than peak viral loads clearance rate is important. there is research suggesting that vaccines do reduce transmission, though that benefit may not last as long as one would hope.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y
It's more nuanced than peak viral loads clearance rate is important. there is research suggesting that vaccines do reduce transmission, though that benefit may not last as long as one would hope.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02689-y
The data is all over the place. There's this peer reviewed study stated:
> "By analyzing viral loads of over 16,000 infections during the current, Delta-variant-dominated pandemic wave in Israel, we found that BTIs in recently fully vaccinated individuals have lower viral loads than infections in unvaccinated individuals. However, this effect starts to decline 2 months after vacci- nation and ultimately vanishes 6 months or longer after vac- cination. Notably, we found that the effect of BNT162b2 on reducing BTI viral loads is restored after a booster dose. These results suggest that BNT162b2 might decrease the infectious- ness of BTIs even with the Delta variant, and that, although this protective effect declines with time, it can be restored, at least temporarily, with a third, booster, vaccine dose."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01575-4.pdf
However, we also know that the viral loads are also very high in elders, in the obese, comorbidity as well as males. The drop in effectiveness happens the fastest in males, elderly and those with comorbidities.
Also expecting everyone to keep getting boosters every 2-6 months (Canada is allowing after 2 months) is entirely unreasonable.
There's other studies which found same viral loads in vaccinated vs unvaccinated even in mild cases (though it's not clear after what period did they perform the study).
Highly vaccinated Dane County in Wisconsin, US found no difference in viral loads when comparing unvaccinated to vaccinated infections, the viral load was consistent with the ability to shed infectious viruses.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v...
Similarly, data from 36 Wisconsin counties found that both vaccinated and unvaccinated can transmit the infection. Infectious virus is found even in vaccinated when specimen Ct values are low, meaning mild cases in vaccinated individuals can spread the virus too.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v...
Houston Methodist Hospital of Texas also found similar viral loads and low Ct values in vaccinated vs unvaccinated infections.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.19.21260808v...
Similar finding in Massachusetts:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm
Overall, there's no logical reasoning to not allow tests as a reasonable accommodation and not testing both vaccinated and unvaccinated if the goal is to prevent the spread of COVID.
Also these minute differences in viral loads for maybe 1 to 2 months after inoculation won't be sufficient to justify discrimination based on perceived disability.
> "By analyzing viral loads of over 16,000 infections during the current, Delta-variant-dominated pandemic wave in Israel, we found that BTIs in recently fully vaccinated individuals have lower viral loads than infections in unvaccinated individuals. However, this effect starts to decline 2 months after vacci- nation and ultimately vanishes 6 months or longer after vac- cination. Notably, we found that the effect of BNT162b2 on reducing BTI viral loads is restored after a booster dose. These results suggest that BNT162b2 might decrease the infectious- ness of BTIs even with the Delta variant, and that, although this protective effect declines with time, it can be restored, at least temporarily, with a third, booster, vaccine dose."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01575-4.pdf
However, we also know that the viral loads are also very high in elders, in the obese, comorbidity as well as males. The drop in effectiveness happens the fastest in males, elderly and those with comorbidities.
Also expecting everyone to keep getting boosters every 2-6 months (Canada is allowing after 2 months) is entirely unreasonable.
There's other studies which found same viral loads in vaccinated vs unvaccinated even in mild cases (though it's not clear after what period did they perform the study).
Highly vaccinated Dane County in Wisconsin, US found no difference in viral loads when comparing unvaccinated to vaccinated infections, the viral load was consistent with the ability to shed infectious viruses.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v...
Similarly, data from 36 Wisconsin counties found that both vaccinated and unvaccinated can transmit the infection. Infectious virus is found even in vaccinated when specimen Ct values are low, meaning mild cases in vaccinated individuals can spread the virus too.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v...
Houston Methodist Hospital of Texas also found similar viral loads and low Ct values in vaccinated vs unvaccinated infections.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.19.21260808v...
Similar finding in Massachusetts:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm
Overall, there's no logical reasoning to not allow tests as a reasonable accommodation and not testing both vaccinated and unvaccinated if the goal is to prevent the spread of COVID.
Also these minute differences in viral loads for maybe 1 to 2 months after inoculation won't be sufficient to justify discrimination based on perceived disability.
> You aren't allowed to air-travel without COVID shots.
From your link:
From your link:
As of October 30, 2021, all travellers 12 years and four (4) months of age and older departing from Canadian airports must, upon request, present a valid record of their COVID-19 vaccination status **or molecular COVID-19 test result**.
Read the very next paragraph of what you quoted:
> After November 30, 2021, all passengers must be fully vaccinated and present valid proof of being fully vaccinated, with very limited exceptions. COVID-19 test results will no longer be accepted after this date.
> As of November 15, 2021, screening officers will be conducting random proof of vaccination checks of non-passengers at CATSA security screening checkpoints. The checks will take place at 15 airports located in Victoria, Vancouver, Kelowna, Edmonton, Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, London, Toronto (Pearson International and Billy Bishop), Ottawa, Montreal (Trudeau), Quebec City, and St. John’s. Upon request, non-passengers will be required to provide proof of vaccination against COVID-19 in order to enter an airport’s restricted area.
I know about this because I have an ongoing lawsuit with the Canadian government.
> After November 30, 2021, all passengers must be fully vaccinated and present valid proof of being fully vaccinated, with very limited exceptions. COVID-19 test results will no longer be accepted after this date.
> As of November 15, 2021, screening officers will be conducting random proof of vaccination checks of non-passengers at CATSA security screening checkpoints. The checks will take place at 15 airports located in Victoria, Vancouver, Kelowna, Edmonton, Calgary, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, London, Toronto (Pearson International and Billy Bishop), Ottawa, Montreal (Trudeau), Quebec City, and St. John’s. Upon request, non-passengers will be required to provide proof of vaccination against COVID-19 in order to enter an airport’s restricted area.
I know about this because I have an ongoing lawsuit with the Canadian government.
> with very limited exceptions.
So again not a mandate. Good luck on your lawsuit, you'll need it.
edit: Since you called me dishonest, I'll explain exactly why I think you'll need luck on your lawsuit:
I understand you are highly charged about this issue due to your being involved in a lawsuit, so you seem to be in litigation attack mode. That's understandable. But calling the other side dishonest and not worthy of engagement won't serve you or your lawyer well in a court of law, so you might as well get used to being challenged without taking it personally.
Based on what you've posted here it seems like you feel the vaccine requirements are discriminatory and unfair because they restrict people from gaining access to essential services like air travel.
Yet the links you provide have shown that the Canadian government
1. Had an extended period of time when unvaccinated people could travel with a test to give them time to get vaccinated.
2. Have now moved to a phase where they don't accept tests but still have exceptions to vaccination
3. Those exceptions are specifically designed to accommodate people who rely on air travel for an essential service.
4. There are exceptions for people who cannot get vaccinated
5. There are exceptions for people in the process of getting vaccinated
6. There are options for you to travel if you cannot get vaccinated, making air travel not essential in that case, so your argument falls apart there.
I have no idea how this would hold up in court, obviously I'm not a lawyer. But the government is going to argue that they have the right to set public health policy (true), they have made accommodations (true), there are exceptions (true), and for anyone whom air travel is essential there are further accommodations (true). For the sake of your case, I hope your lawyer presents your arguments in court better than you have presented them here, because I'm not convinced.
So again not a mandate. Good luck on your lawsuit, you'll need it.
edit: Since you called me dishonest, I'll explain exactly why I think you'll need luck on your lawsuit:
I understand you are highly charged about this issue due to your being involved in a lawsuit, so you seem to be in litigation attack mode. That's understandable. But calling the other side dishonest and not worthy of engagement won't serve you or your lawyer well in a court of law, so you might as well get used to being challenged without taking it personally.
Based on what you've posted here it seems like you feel the vaccine requirements are discriminatory and unfair because they restrict people from gaining access to essential services like air travel.
Yet the links you provide have shown that the Canadian government
1. Had an extended period of time when unvaccinated people could travel with a test to give them time to get vaccinated.
2. Have now moved to a phase where they don't accept tests but still have exceptions to vaccination
3. Those exceptions are specifically designed to accommodate people who rely on air travel for an essential service.
4. There are exceptions for people who cannot get vaccinated
5. There are exceptions for people in the process of getting vaccinated
6. There are options for you to travel if you cannot get vaccinated, making air travel not essential in that case, so your argument falls apart there.
I have no idea how this would hold up in court, obviously I'm not a lawyer. But the government is going to argue that they have the right to set public health policy (true), they have made accommodations (true), there are exceptions (true), and for anyone whom air travel is essential there are further accommodations (true). For the sake of your case, I hope your lawyer presents your arguments in court better than you have presented them here, because I'm not convinced.
> So again not a mandate
https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-canada/news/2021/10/manda...
Look at what the government calls it: "Mandatory COVID-19 vaccination requirements for federally regulated transportation employees and travellers"
Notice the "Mandatory".
You are being purposefully dishonest. This discussion is not worth proceeding.
https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-canada/news/2021/10/manda...
Look at what the government calls it: "Mandatory COVID-19 vaccination requirements for federally regulated transportation employees and travellers"
Notice the "Mandatory".
You are being purposefully dishonest. This discussion is not worth proceeding.
I admire your detailed and thorough analysis. Don't let those with an agenda tamp your energy. Your posts present the most concentrated unbiased information I've seen in any thread about COVID.
Using unbiased information for biased purposes (a lawsuit) does not make the information biased.
Using unbiased information for biased purposes (a lawsuit) does not make the information biased.
Mandatory doesn't mean that it's been mandated.
They're two separate words with separate meanings.
but you're right about this: >This discussion is not worth proceeding.
but you're right about this: >This discussion is not worth proceeding.
I think the prevention of the collapse of medical care is a worthwhile government goal. Prior to the vaccines our medical care system was on the verge of collapse. The areas remaining under vaccinated are still in danger of having impacted medical care. People are dying from non-covid illnesses because they can't get the medical care they need due to the medical responders being overwhelmed by covid. The vaccines have made it so that the breakthrough cases are mild and generally don't require hospitalization. This allows us to get our medical infrastructure back on track.
Having said that, medical infrastructure collapse is on a county basis. Maybe vaccine mandates should be handled at the county level?
Having said that, medical infrastructure collapse is on a county basis. Maybe vaccine mandates should be handled at the county level?
No it doesn't. That is not a scientific observation at all and your perfectly round numbers are completely made up.
A novel disease is most potent when it hits populations with no built in immunity. The disease hit elderly people particularly hard. Among those that survived the first wave of covid, people built up natural immunity.
A novel disease is most potent when it hits populations with no built in immunity. The disease hit elderly people particularly hard. Among those that survived the first wave of covid, people built up natural immunity.
> That is not a scientific observation at all
I said it would be a good case study, which would be an element of research trying to establish the effectiveness of the vaccine. Obviously what I presented here is not science, and I didn't claim it was. Science is one tool of many that we can use to observe reality and try to draw conclusions about it. It's not the only tool, and you shouldn't discount one tool for not being another tool.
> your perfectly round numbers are completely made up
Good on you to insist on a source, I forgot to provide it. My perfectly round number are approximations of these data, they are not "made up": https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/gibraltar/
5 deaths in Dec 2020 up to 94 deaths ~100 deaths. Cases were ~1000 in December 2020 and went up to ~4000 in February, an increase of ~3000 cases. Infections leveled off and started increasing in June from ~4000 to exactly 7248 today, an increase of ~3000 cases. During this outbreak, exactly 4 people have died.
> The disease hit elderly people particularly hard. Among those that survived the first wave of covid, people built up natural immunity.
Maybe. Or maybe the vaccine is doing in the wild exactly what scientists found it did in their vaccine trials? Occam's razor would say to go with the vaccine as the explanation due to it requiring fewer assumptions (we know everyone is vaccinated, we don't know what proportion of that population has built up immunity by contracting Covid naturally).
I said it would be a good case study, which would be an element of research trying to establish the effectiveness of the vaccine. Obviously what I presented here is not science, and I didn't claim it was. Science is one tool of many that we can use to observe reality and try to draw conclusions about it. It's not the only tool, and you shouldn't discount one tool for not being another tool.
> your perfectly round numbers are completely made up
Good on you to insist on a source, I forgot to provide it. My perfectly round number are approximations of these data, they are not "made up": https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/gibraltar/
5 deaths in Dec 2020 up to 94 deaths ~100 deaths. Cases were ~1000 in December 2020 and went up to ~4000 in February, an increase of ~3000 cases. Infections leveled off and started increasing in June from ~4000 to exactly 7248 today, an increase of ~3000 cases. During this outbreak, exactly 4 people have died.
> The disease hit elderly people particularly hard. Among those that survived the first wave of covid, people built up natural immunity.
Maybe. Or maybe the vaccine is doing in the wild exactly what scientists found it did in their vaccine trials? Occam's razor would say to go with the vaccine as the explanation due to it requiring fewer assumptions (we know everyone is vaccinated, we don't know what proportion of that population has built up immunity by contracting Covid naturally).
i agree with you, but i am having a lot of difficulty convincing most people i know that the current vaccines are leaky. i find most people still consider the current vaccines to neutralize the virus and they often begin to question why i don't understand how vaccines work...
Because people are losing their jobs and liberty over perhaps the least effective vaccine in history.
> The two doctors had received three doses of the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine, and so far have shown mild COVID-19 symptoms, the hospital said.
The mildness of the symptoms is just as newsworthy as the fact that there are breakthrough infections. It has long been speculated that COVID-19 would evolve into more contagious but less virulent variants. Omicron may be one such variant. If it is, that's probably a good thing.
Wouldn't it be great if a vaccinated person could get omicron, have a mild illness, and then have even stronger immunity against other variants?
The mildness of the symptoms is just as newsworthy as the fact that there are breakthrough infections. It has long been speculated that COVID-19 would evolve into more contagious but less virulent variants. Omicron may be one such variant. If it is, that's probably a good thing.
Wouldn't it be great if a vaccinated person could get omicron, have a mild illness, and then have even stronger immunity against other variants?
You don't get stronger immunity. It's like cold virus. The idea behind cold virus is to not allow your host to develop any immunity. Before host's immune system gets around it, cold virus spreads and kills itself in host. This combined with rapid mutations means that there is no cure for cold. Covid DNA structure is similar and may eventually evolve to adopt same strategy in long term. Killing host is not a good strategy for viruses which is why Ebola was unable to take stronger foothold.
You don't think that getting one variant of COVID-19 gives you stronger immunity to other variants? Has that been the case for any variants so far?
> Wouldn't it be great if a vaccinated person could get omicron, have a mild illness, and then have even stronger immunity against other variants?
That would be great, but it appears the immune system does not work that way:
> the body's immune system ... preferentially utilize(s) immunological memory based on a previous infection when a second slightly different version of that foreign pathogen (e.g. a virus or bacterium) is encountered. This leaves the immune system "trapped" by the first response it has made to each antigen, and unable to mount potentially more effective responses during subsequent infections.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin
That would be great, but it appears the immune system does not work that way:
> the body's immune system ... preferentially utilize(s) immunological memory based on a previous infection when a second slightly different version of that foreign pathogen (e.g. a virus or bacterium) is encountered. This leaves the immune system "trapped" by the first response it has made to each antigen, and unable to mount potentially more effective responses during subsequent infections.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin
> It has long been speculated that COVID-19 would evolve into more contagious but less virulent variants.
That speculation has only come from people who don't know what they're talking about.
Is there any other virus where this happened? It didn't happen for smallpox, ebola, measles, flu.
You're also ignoring the law of big numbers: if it kills fewer people than delta but infects more people we're probably going to see more deaths. People won't want to take any precautions against it, which means very many more people will get infected.
That speculation has only come from people who don't know what they're talking about.
Is there any other virus where this happened? It didn't happen for smallpox, ebola, measles, flu.
You're also ignoring the law of big numbers: if it kills fewer people than delta but infects more people we're probably going to see more deaths. People won't want to take any precautions against it, which means very many more people will get infected.
That seems to be a decent strategy. Virus is endemic and you will catch it at some point. It isn't sure and probably unlikely that immunity against this variant would shield you from the others. Same problem the vaccine has in the end. If there aren't unknown long term effects, the idea doesn't seem to bad. I guess responsible doctors would always advise against this though because it would still be an experiment.
It's just as newsworthy in the sense that it's not newsworthy at all. A mild infection in a triple-vaccinated person is the default case. Two such anecdotes tells us basically nothing.
I think you're reading too much into this. Vaccinated people who get covid _normally_ have mild symptoms.
The bigger fear though is in the unvaccinated. Read news coming out of Israel that R has increased by 1.3x and severity (not sure how that's measured) has increased by 2.4x over Delta [1].
[1] https://tinyurl.com/yckjcmzu
[1] https://tinyurl.com/yckjcmzu
It also says that the vaccine effectiveness for triple vaccinated people is 90% vs 95% for delta, so still pretty good.
That may turn out to be true but there is absolutely no way they have enough data to make such claims yet. To do so is irresponsible at best
Which is why this story is considered news. People are trying to reassess the risk factor of doing whatever the hell they want. The info has been sparse so far, so we want whatever we can get.
Personally I don't mind sitting inside again for 2-3 weeks while this all gets figured out, but I know I'm in the vast minority by this point.
Personally I don't mind sitting inside again for 2-3 weeks while this all gets figured out, but I know I'm in the vast minority by this point.
I agree, it's up to anyone consuming sources to decide for themselves based on available evidence.
Right, but anyone who takes a position yet should be dismissed without prejudice. The default, null hypothesis is that Omicron is exactly as virulent and deadly as the current baseline, Delta. Anything else is bullshit for now and anyone who claims to have data contra that null hypothesis is lying
The problem I see there, and it's the exact reason governments/media/the stock market are all bracing, is that if it's not the way you describe and we keep doing what we're doing (which with Delta has now become next to nothing) it could end up killing 10s of thousands of people. It's important to at least consider that we have a new mutation that needs to be treated differently than the old ones. Be careful out there folks. Wash your hands, wear a mask.
Yes, we research it, we warn those who are at high risk to be extra cautious but we don’t spread FUD that everyone is going to get reinfected, that the vaccines are useless. You must be able to tell the difference between a cautious but reasonable approach and panic.
My favorite part is the invocation of counter-terrorism measures:
Israel shut its borders to foreigners from all countries for 14 days on Saturday to try to contain the spread of Omicron and has reintroduced counter-terrorism phone-tracking technology to trace contacts of a handful of people who have likely been infected.
Israel shut its borders to foreigners from all countries for 14 days on Saturday to try to contain the spread of Omicron and has reintroduced counter-terrorism phone-tracking technology to trace contacts of a handful of people who have likely been infected.
Related NYTimes:
> Israel's domestic intelligence agency has been granted temporary permission to access the phone data of people in the country with confirmed cases of the Omicron variant for contact tracing.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1465439194575253514
> Israel's domestic intelligence agency has been granted temporary permission to access the phone data of people in the country with confirmed cases of the Omicron variant for contact tracing.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1465439194575253514
"Counterterrorism measures" is a weird way for Reuters to phrase it - gives the impression that what's "counter-terrorism" is the legal authority, when it's the technology that's "counter-terrorism". But perhaps I'm wrong about the most likely public reading.
(Specifically - the security services' surveillance systems are flipped on for the entire domestic Israeli cell network, and known infected people's cell phone tower data handed over to the Ministry of Health along with that of uninfected people they were near.)
(Specifically - the security services' surveillance systems are flipped on for the entire domestic Israeli cell network, and known infected people's cell phone tower data handed over to the Ministry of Health along with that of uninfected people they were near.)
Why is this news other than to create hype? The data always indicated that you can get infected even if you are vaccinated and you can still spread. The only reduction was in severe symptoms and hospitalization. Are these doctors sick and hospitalized or in ICU? This scaremongering is getting very tiring.
sfmayorloser(2)
sfmayorloser(1)
Lol should’ve quadruple vaxxed.
And the pointless emotional fact that they are doctors, as if any virus considers ones CV. And the excessive use of “probably” in this story.
I get that COVID was a ~bane~ (I meant boon) for the news industry and that people scared shitless are more likely to click but this shit is getting borderline irresponsible.