Crypto Geniuses Who Vaporized a Trillion Dollars(nymag.com)
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Crypto Geniuses Who Vaporized a Trillion Dollars
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/three-arrows-capital-kyle-davies-su-zhu-crash.html
53 comments
Cryptocurrencies are the sympton of the population distrust towards central banks and governments who are very irresponsible when controlling the money. I mean, look at the Covid-19 pandemic. They irresponsibly stopped the entire economy, printed a buttload of money out of thin air and now are "struggling" to fight the resulting inflaction. Well, they aren't struggling with anything, it's you, me, the average Joe that are suffering from inflaction. Why? Because irresponsibility.
It's pretty much enough to look into the time of birth of the Bitcoin and you can see what was the first purpose ot cryptocurrencies. If some morons lose money on get rich fast schemes, it's on them.
It's pretty much enough to look into the time of birth of the Bitcoin and you can see what was the first purpose ot cryptocurrencies. If some morons lose money on get rich fast schemes, it's on them.
> distrust towards central banks and governments who are very irresponsible when controlling the money
Where does this distrust come from? Central Banks have been running QE for ages (the Fed since the GFC 2008, BoJ even earlier), and inflation has been fine for decades (too low, rather).
Now, in exceptional circumstances (pandemic and war and supply chain problems due to those and fiscal easing) there's a short spike of inflation that's brought inflation averaged over a decade just a tad over the 2% goal. Where's the "irresponsibility"?
Where does this distrust come from? Central Banks have been running QE for ages (the Fed since the GFC 2008, BoJ even earlier), and inflation has been fine for decades (too low, rather).
Now, in exceptional circumstances (pandemic and war and supply chain problems due to those and fiscal easing) there's a short spike of inflation that's brought inflation averaged over a decade just a tad over the 2% goal. Where's the "irresponsibility"?
Cryptocurrencies are the symptom
The key word is "symptom" --- not to be confused with "cure".
The key word is "symptom" --- not to be confused with "cure".
> They irresponsibly stopped the entire economy,
The ... banks?
... irresponsibly?
The ... banks?
... irresponsibly?
Even better: being able to create money out of thin air…oh wait.
Isn't that what the federal reserve is being doing for the last decades?
I know ... just let anyone act like the federal reserve for fun and profit. 12,000 cryptocurrencies and "stable coins" later (the number doubled over the last year) --- does anyone really feel like the problem has been fixed?
Just because you can clone Facebook doesn’t mean you get a valuable user base
Crypto is much easier to clone than Facebook --- as evidenced by the fact they are multiplying like rabbits.
The only thing restraining the creation of crypto is the fact that it is virtually unusable as an actual currency. If it were otherwise, every celebrity, politician and corporation would just mint their own continuous stream of the stuff. There is nothing to stop them.
Productive work would become obsolete. Why work to "earn" money when you can just mint it? A lot of life's major problems could be solved instantly by crypto. If you buy this, I've got some crypto to sell you.
The only thing restraining the creation of crypto is the fact that it is virtually unusable as an actual currency. If it were otherwise, every celebrity, politician and corporation would just mint their own continuous stream of the stuff. There is nothing to stop them.
Productive work would become obsolete. Why work to "earn" money when you can just mint it? A lot of life's major problems could be solved instantly by crypto. If you buy this, I've got some crypto to sell you.
Creating something doesn’t automatically make it valuable.
You’re failing to realize that value is socially derived.
You’re failing to realize that value is socially derived.
You’re failing to realize that value is socially derived.
You're failing to realize that lots of people/companies have a larger social presence than Satoshi Nakamoto and are thus in a much stronger position to derive value from their own crypto.
But most of these have had the good sense thus far to avoid crypto scams due to the potential legal issues. Kim Kardashian being one example of a prominent exception.
https://decrypt.co/106533/kim-kardashian-ethereum-max-dismis...
You're failing to realize that lots of people/companies have a larger social presence than Satoshi Nakamoto and are thus in a much stronger position to derive value from their own crypto.
But most of these have had the good sense thus far to avoid crypto scams due to the potential legal issues. Kim Kardashian being one example of a prominent exception.
https://decrypt.co/106533/kim-kardashian-ethereum-max-dismis...
Corporations generally avoid creating cryptocurrencies because of the immense regulation and legal work they would have to do. And because banking regulation and compliance is generally out of their wheelhouse. Facebook tried it with their fiat basket backed stable coin.
Crypto isn't regulated at the current time --- at least not in the USA.
However, the fact it isn't regulated doesn't mean they can't be sued in civil court for running a scam. This is what they are really afraid of --- see Kim Kardashian for an example.
This is why crypto bros tend to hide their identify (Satoshi) or re-locate outside the USA and go into hiding once the scam collapses (the guys from 3AC).
BOTTOM LINE: Selling electrons as money from your momma's basement is a shady business in more ways than one. Participate at your own risk.
However, the fact it isn't regulated doesn't mean they can't be sued in civil court for running a scam. This is what they are really afraid of --- see Kim Kardashian for an example.
This is why crypto bros tend to hide their identify (Satoshi) or re-locate outside the USA and go into hiding once the scam collapses (the guys from 3AC).
BOTTOM LINE: Selling electrons as money from your momma's basement is a shady business in more ways than one. Participate at your own risk.
Yes, but at least greenbacks are backed by real stuff. Backed by the USA, all the millions of workers, the US military, goods being produced, etc. Can a national currency be wiped out? Sure, through mismanagement. BUT, that does not negate the fact that the US dollar is backed by a whole lot of actual assets.
Crypto is backed by nothing. Nothing.
Crypto is backed by nothing. Nothing.
> Yes, but at least greenbacks are backed by real stuff.
Fiat currencies are not “backed”, you have nothing they are even theoretically guaranteed to be exchangeable for, at a fixed rate of currency to commodity, setting a value floor, at least relative to the commodity.
They are, instead, actively managed.
The theory is that this is better, at least for large, geopolitically and economically powerful, countries as issuers, because backing commodities themselves are only at best a limited fit for the (even as a value basis) desirable features of currency, and have somewhat random performance at any given time compared to that “at best”, and active management (which is also not perfect!) seems to be able to do better, if the manager governs a big and powerful enough market to start with.
Fiat currencies are not “backed”, you have nothing they are even theoretically guaranteed to be exchangeable for, at a fixed rate of currency to commodity, setting a value floor, at least relative to the commodity.
They are, instead, actively managed.
The theory is that this is better, at least for large, geopolitically and economically powerful, countries as issuers, because backing commodities themselves are only at best a limited fit for the (even as a value basis) desirable features of currency, and have somewhat random performance at any given time compared to that “at best”, and active management (which is also not perfect!) seems to be able to do better, if the manager governs a big and powerful enough market to start with.
As I said in a comment to another person, if you go down that road, nothing is "backed."
I'm just talking about regular everyday stuff. The US dollar has been exceedingly strong for a long time, due to many factors, none of which is that it is "backed" by gold or baby diapers or star trek transporters machines or orange juice.
This is just a colloquial conversation. If you want to be exacting, I can write 200 pages on it, complete with sources. But are you going to want to read it? or would I be wasting my time writing a long and thorough explanation? Wouldn't a couple of paragraphs suffice and just not have people nitpick in order to score "gotcha" points?
I'm just talking about regular everyday stuff. The US dollar has been exceedingly strong for a long time, due to many factors, none of which is that it is "backed" by gold or baby diapers or star trek transporters machines or orange juice.
This is just a colloquial conversation. If you want to be exacting, I can write 200 pages on it, complete with sources. But are you going to want to read it? or would I be wasting my time writing a long and thorough explanation? Wouldn't a couple of paragraphs suffice and just not have people nitpick in order to score "gotcha" points?
You misuse the word “backed”. The US economy does not “back” the dollar, figuratively or literally.
America, it’s workers, corporations, military, etc., will happily abandon the dollar should it become necessary. No one wants to be paid in money undergoing massive devaluation.
America, it’s workers, corporations, military, etc., will happily abandon the dollar should it become necessary. No one wants to be paid in money undergoing massive devaluation.
I'm not misusing the word "backed." I'm assuming some sophistication from the reader.
And to that point, it is true that nothing backs the dollar, but nothing backs nothing if you go down that road.
In past times, when, let's say a city was being attacked and there's a seige, and food runs out, people will sell their $500,000 diamond ring for a potato, so diamonds and gold have no value as compared to a potato.
However, if a meteor like the one that hit the earth 65 million years ago and wiped out the dinosaurs, hits again and wipes all of humanity out, there is no "back" of any currency anywhere.
I mean, if you're going to go down that road, let's take it to it's conclusion.
However, in the everyday world, the US dollar has a lot behind it. Like a huge military. No country is going to come in and take over the USA and throw out our money. Because we have a big military. There's a lot of trade going on with greenbacks. It is the world currency.
I'm not saying it is impossible for the dollar to go down the tubes, please don't assume I'm that stupid, nor anyone else is.
But there's a hell of a lot more reasons to stick with US dollars as a store of value, rather than bitcoin. Bit coin has got nothing, just a bunch of narcoterrorists and billionaires trying to smuggle out ill-gotten gains so they don't have to pay taxes. And the speculators working from the greater fool theory.
And to that point, it is true that nothing backs the dollar, but nothing backs nothing if you go down that road.
In past times, when, let's say a city was being attacked and there's a seige, and food runs out, people will sell their $500,000 diamond ring for a potato, so diamonds and gold have no value as compared to a potato.
However, if a meteor like the one that hit the earth 65 million years ago and wiped out the dinosaurs, hits again and wipes all of humanity out, there is no "back" of any currency anywhere.
I mean, if you're going to go down that road, let's take it to it's conclusion.
However, in the everyday world, the US dollar has a lot behind it. Like a huge military. No country is going to come in and take over the USA and throw out our money. Because we have a big military. There's a lot of trade going on with greenbacks. It is the world currency.
I'm not saying it is impossible for the dollar to go down the tubes, please don't assume I'm that stupid, nor anyone else is.
But there's a hell of a lot more reasons to stick with US dollars as a store of value, rather than bitcoin. Bit coin has got nothing, just a bunch of narcoterrorists and billionaires trying to smuggle out ill-gotten gains so they don't have to pay taxes. And the speculators working from the greater fool theory.
...as well as any/all US Chartered banks/FCUs. See "Fractional Reserve Banking."
Fidelis in Numeris
Fidelis in Numeris
See "stable coins" --- particularly Tether which underpins more than half of all crypto trades.
It's "fractional reserve banking" --- only worse --- minus any accountability or guarantee of solvency.
Crypto solves all the problems of the Federal Reserve and banking --- simply by mimicing it for fun and profit. If you buy that, I've got some crypto to sell you.
It's "fractional reserve banking" --- only worse --- minus any accountability or guarantee of solvency.
Crypto solves all the problems of the Federal Reserve and banking --- simply by mimicing it for fun and profit. If you buy that, I've got some crypto to sell you.
In fact no actual money vaporized. Every actual dollar exchanged for these turkeys went into a ready, yawning pocket.
A very great deal of imaginary money, that had never been exchanged for more dollars than were spent mining it, evaporated.
So, the winners were those who got actual dollars while the con ran. The losers were whoever handed over dollars.
Of course this phenomenon is not limited to crypto. Who here remembers Global Crossing? In the future, it will be Tesla.
A very great deal of imaginary money, that had never been exchanged for more dollars than were spent mining it, evaporated.
So, the winners were those who got actual dollars while the con ran. The losers were whoever handed over dollars.
Of course this phenomenon is not limited to crypto. Who here remembers Global Crossing? In the future, it will be Tesla.
Is Tesla an actual con though? Sure it's over valued. And self driving is being over sold. And many announced products appear to be vapourware. And the CEO is. Well.
But it is an actual business, bringing in actual money, and the money appears to be correctly accounted for.
But it is an actual business, bringing in actual money, and the money appears to be correctly accounted for.
Tesla as a car manufacturer is not a con. But Tesla as a tradeable security is a con, massively inflated by machinations of its chief grifter. People who put their life savings into Tesla stock will lose their shirts, come the correction.
this comment will not age well ... at the currently stock price of 900 dollars.
You are correct: as soon as people get wise to Tesla's actual competitive position in the car business, share price will collapse. After that time, predictions of collapse will instead refer to past activity, and its subsequent future will be less predictable.
To be fair, I remember a long time ago that Musk said that he was creating the electric car to force other car companies to create electric cars, in order to help with climate change and all that.
I specifically remember reading that while he wants the business to succeed, he would consider it a success if he got all the other car companies to go electric and he went out of business. Not that he would want to go out of business.
I don't know how old you all are, but I remember when it first started, I thought it would go all John Delorean and be out of business in one or two years, and lo and behold all this time later. So I'm impressed. The guy is actually trying to do shit, as opposed to Jeff Bezos who all he is doing is attempting to ape Musk with the spaceship (what's happening with that now), and buying a $150 million Los Angeles mansion and making a massive yacht, and divorcing his beautiful wife and going out with that clown-faced nasty looking woman. $200 billion and she's the best he could do???
Bill Gates with his billions is just jerking off too. What's he doing?
I specifically remember reading that while he wants the business to succeed, he would consider it a success if he got all the other car companies to go electric and he went out of business. Not that he would want to go out of business.
I don't know how old you all are, but I remember when it first started, I thought it would go all John Delorean and be out of business in one or two years, and lo and behold all this time later. So I'm impressed. The guy is actually trying to do shit, as opposed to Jeff Bezos who all he is doing is attempting to ape Musk with the spaceship (what's happening with that now), and buying a $150 million Los Angeles mansion and making a massive yacht, and divorcing his beautiful wife and going out with that clown-faced nasty looking woman. $200 billion and she's the best he could do???
Bill Gates with his billions is just jerking off too. What's he doing?
True, billionaires are a plague. How many have provided any service proportional even to the square root of their hoard?
So where do you think the stock price is going to bottom out?
Some reasonable multiple of actual net revenue. Not to zero, anyway.
Soon electric cars will not be a novelty, and Tesla's poor build quality, poor reliability, and poor repairability will start to be remarked upon.
Soon electric cars will not be a novelty, and Tesla's poor build quality, poor reliability, and poor repairability will start to be remarked upon.
"Soon electric cars will not be a novelty"
We are years away from that happening. And someone is going to have to start producing a lot more batteries before it happens.
"Tesla's poor build quality, poor reliability, and poor repairability will start to be remarked upon."
Where numbers are you referencing here. Just because a few loud people on the internet complain about these things doesnt mean it endemic. Is it not more likely that most Tesla customers are extremely satisfied with their purchase and just dont post about it online?
We are years away from that happening. And someone is going to have to start producing a lot more batteries before it happens.
"Tesla's poor build quality, poor reliability, and poor repairability will start to be remarked upon."
Where numbers are you referencing here. Just because a few loud people on the internet complain about these things doesnt mean it endemic. Is it not more likely that most Tesla customers are extremely satisfied with their purchase and just dont post about it online?
Consumer Reports put Teslas at the very bottom of their reliability ratings.
Every professional car reviewer remarks on their poor "fit and finish".
The number of people complaining that Tesla quoted them repair estimates for relatively minor failures exceeding the resale value of the car is disturbingly large.
Every professional car reviewer remarks on their poor "fit and finish".
The number of people complaining that Tesla quoted them repair estimates for relatively minor failures exceeding the resale value of the car is disturbingly large.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
Right, bets on the collapse happening at any particular time will lose. It will probably happen simultaneously with a bunch of other collapses.
We are now in the position of Wile E Coyote having run off the cliff, but not yet looked down.
We are now in the position of Wile E Coyote having run off the cliff, but not yet looked down.
>[despite its flaws, Tesla is] an actual business, bringing in actual money...
This exact same reasoning applies to drug dealers (illicit and BigPharma), sex dens, and other perverse corruptions (both sanctioned and not). I think the reasons you list as Tesla's faults are reason enough to look elsewhere (for a car or stock investment).
But, if your reasons are not enough, consider E.Musk's primary stated reason for running Tesla: to generate profits enough to get humanity to Mars. The task of doing so may very well deplete significant Earth resources... does it make sense to [further] pollute our space marble just to infect another space rock with us?
This exact same reasoning applies to drug dealers (illicit and BigPharma), sex dens, and other perverse corruptions (both sanctioned and not). I think the reasons you list as Tesla's faults are reason enough to look elsewhere (for a car or stock investment).
But, if your reasons are not enough, consider E.Musk's primary stated reason for running Tesla: to generate profits enough to get humanity to Mars. The task of doing so may very well deplete significant Earth resources... does it make sense to [further] pollute our space marble just to infect another space rock with us?
None of those are examples of a con though.
If you thought you were buying coke and got flour, that would be a con, but if not it's just illegal.
I'm not saying buy the stock, but that doesn't make it a con any more than any other thing I wouldn't buy.
Going to mars also isn't a con. It's just a reason (for you) not to buy the stock and or the cars.
If you thought you were buying coke and got flour, that would be a con, but if not it's just illegal.
I'm not saying buy the stock, but that doesn't make it a con any more than any other thing I wouldn't buy.
Going to mars also isn't a con. It's just a reason (for you) not to buy the stock and or the cars.
The whole Mars colonization thing is absolutely a con, because there will never be a Mars colony, and Starship would in any case be wholly inadequate to the job of establishing one.
Even O'Neill Can Donuts make more sense.
Even O'Neill Can Donuts make more sense.
A con has to have some intention to be a con.
For example, many are calling star citizen a cons/scam. But IMO the intention to scam people just isn't there.
So, no, I wouldn't say tesla is a con.
For example, many are calling star citizen a cons/scam. But IMO the intention to scam people just isn't there.
So, no, I wouldn't say tesla is a con.
Many cons don't start out as cons. Even Theranos was originally meant to be legitimate. Enterprises turn into cons in preference to folding immediately, often with hope of no longer being a con, someday soon.
Yup. Crypto is basically a pump and dump on a very large scale.
White collar crime and doing time in Dubai. I can just see guy's the personal trainer: You are sentenced to a lifetime of generic air conditioned malls with nothing to do but eat awesome food so you can get really damn fat.
Lol, that's the best description of Dubai I've ever read.
The final lesson these guys will learn is: never be a not actually rich conman. It's like fishing bait for prosecutors because the targets have no real wealth or power. It's much better to be an actually wealthy and thus powerful conman, where your generally untouchable.
The trillion dollars didn't exist before so why is it a problem that it doesn't exist now?
While market cap is a popular number, it isn't meaningful wrt "total value" because the marginal price has no useful relationship to the average price.
While market cap is a popular number, it isn't meaningful wrt "total value" because the marginal price has no useful relationship to the average price.
A lot of wealth transfer can happen under the rise and fall of a net zero asset.
To be a bit rhetorically excessive, you didn't exist before your birth so why would it be a problem for you to stop existing now?
To be a bit rhetorically excessive, you didn't exist before your birth so why would it be a problem for you to stop existing now?
I'm pretty sure that crypto isn't aware of, let alone care about, about value changes.
Calling 3AC responsible for the larger market decline in crypto is incredibly sensationalist. Total market cap had already declined 50% by the time 3AC became insolvent.
Crypto. Genius. Pick one.
>Sir... this is a Wendy's.
Been in crypto since 2012. You're not wrong.
Been in crypto since 2012. You're not wrong.
same argument could be made for the .com bust in the early 2000s, and of the bankers for the 2008 sub-prime mortgage crash, this is sensationalism. Money isn't real, things are worth whatever people are willing to pay for it and it doesn't have to make sense, its why we have things like fine art and luxury goods, value is subjective.
The ultimate con --- selling virtual bridges made of electrons to rubes who had been convinced that their powers of observation were superior to all those others who just didn't "get it".