Sudden increase in number of mid-air diversions to Hawaii(beatofhawaii.com)
beatofhawaii.com
Sudden increase in number of mid-air diversions to Hawaii
https://beatofhawaii.com/hawaiian-joins-mid-air-diversions-now-7-in-three-weeks/
109 comments
How long were you waiting on the tarmac between landing and the second takeoff?
It's close to two decades ago so I don't exactly remember but I want to say less than an hour, maybe 30 minutes back at the gate with the fuel truck.
What's the expected incident rate? And is this far outside the probability of random clustering?
As the article points out:
> causes for flight diversions can range from medical (related to crew and passengers), weather (unlikely), unruly activity (we would have heard about that), and mechanical (the most likely). Someone even mentioned solar flares.
But none seem to be the case with these diversions, from what is publicly known.
But none seem to be the case with these diversions, from what is publicly known.
Two of the Southwest flights are known to be mechanical related:
https://avherald.com/h?article=4fc19a3b&opt=0 https://avherald.com/h?article=4fcfe330&opt=0
https://avherald.com/h?article=4fc19a3b&opt=0 https://avherald.com/h?article=4fcfe330&opt=0
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AvHerald finally supports HTTPS!
Medical diversions (a passenger gets too sick) are by far the most common type. I find this interesting how the planes are so much more reliable than the passengers on board.
There are also a hundred or more passengers on a transpacific flight. If planes and humans were equally reliable, we'd expect to see medical diversions to outnumber mechanical ones by more than 100:1....
Also depends on whether you had the fish for the in-flight dinner.
I think this post is referencing a joke from the movie Airplane!
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0080339/
which is in turn referencing the plot of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hour!
Surely one of the great comedies.
Surely one of the great comedies.
They serve dinner?
Never been on a plane before? Yeah they serve meals and drinks at your seat.
That's outrageous. Think of the profit they're giving up for comfortable service.
See: https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/5935/did-removi...
"Apparently there was an airline that managed to save tens of thousands of dollars per year by removing a single olive from the salads in their meals, because it was hardly noticed by customers it was a massive win, tens of thousands of dollars without anyone noticing.
How true is this story?"
"Apparently there was an airline that managed to save tens of thousands of dollars per year by removing a single olive from the salads in their meals, because it was hardly noticed by customers it was a massive win, tens of thousands of dollars without anyone noticing.
How true is this story?"
They serve food and drinks mainly to prevent medical related diversions.
Fed and watered customers are less likely to get ill and less likely to get unruly.
Fed and watered customers are less likely to get ill and less likely to get unruly.
Another reason is to keep passengers occupied. Keep'em fiddling with stuff and it keeps them out of the hair of the flight crew.
Trying to fit an airline meal into the terribly limited space of an airline tray, and unwrap things that need unwrapping, and keep the trash under control, and find places for the small things they include that you don't even eat or need - and still manage to partake of the comestibles - this requires skills in spatial management that for some may lead to an unrewarding career in solving infernal Chinese wooden puzzles.
Trying to fit an airline meal into the terribly limited space of an airline tray, and unwrap things that need unwrapping, and keep the trash under control, and find places for the small things they include that you don't even eat or need - and still manage to partake of the comestibles - this requires skills in spatial management that for some may lead to an unrewarding career in solving infernal Chinese wooden puzzles.
I wish they felt that way about space to move around.
Ah yes, I had lasagna.
Underrated comment right here.
That’s an interesting argument in favor of smaller and faster aircraft (for a given reliability…).
By quite a bit, right? Assuming passenger malfunctions were statistically independent, I guess passenger malfunctions would follow the binomial distribution.
The probability of any passenger malfunction should be exponential by the number of passengers.
Do you mean multiplicative? Or linear? Why would it be exponential?
Any one malfunctioning passenger is sufficient to fail the overall flight. Assume each is independently probable of malfunction. If we know nothing else about the passengers, we can only model them as having some average rate of successful flight without malfunction, say 99.9%.
Say there are 100 passengers. We roll the dice 100 times, once for each passenger.
The success rate for the overall flight would be 0.999 ^ 100 = 90.4% -> About a 10% chance of flight failure.
If there are 400 passengers, we get 67.0%, about a 33% chance of flight failure.
Given enough passengers per flight, few or no flights reach their destination.
Say there are 100 passengers. We roll the dice 100 times, once for each passenger.
The success rate for the overall flight would be 0.999 ^ 100 = 90.4% -> About a 10% chance of flight failure.
If there are 400 passengers, we get 67.0%, about a 33% chance of flight failure.
Given enough passengers per flight, few or no flights reach their destination.
I think they mean it's
1 - prob of any person getting sick ** number of people on plane
It's because of the redundancies. I have heard "Master Caution/Alarm" blaring on (IIRC two of) my flights, mid flight, and nobody said anything.
We just continued undisturbed and landed as we should. I'm sure the plane went to technical hangar, tho.
We just continued undisturbed and landed as we should. I'm sure the plane went to technical hangar, tho.
Also that goes off pretty frequently. When the PIC switches off autopilot when coming in for landing, for example.
Yeah, many activities trigger it (the pilot will be expecting it coming out of autopilot, if he hears it at cruise because autopilot disengaged they'll investigate).
It was squarely mid-flight/cruising, international IIRC. We were nowhere near landing/approach.
I suspect you meant "the PF" not the PIC (where PF equals 'pilot flying').
Autopilot disconnect sound is distinct from master caution/warning.
Also, serious processes dealing with anomalies, anonymous incident reporting, strict maintenance rules, long term active government research...
If each passenger underwent a 35 point health inspection prior to takeoff like the planes do, the numbers might look different.
I'll vote for the politician that proposes this lol
Find a politician that would pass said test first.
Isn't that what the TSA is doing?
Once I was too tired on a long journey and made a rude comment when TSA was checking my green card for the third time in a 50 meter line. At that time my green card was expired for reasons outside my control so I also needed to carry some letters from DHS explaining why my green card was expired and that it was not my fault and I should be let back in.
Anyway, after the rude comment she just smirked and wrote XXX or something like that on my boarding card. I was like whatever, but when I got to the line at the gate and they checked my boarding card I got taken into a run for a "special" inspection. So unless you love body cavity searches don't be stupid and say things you are going to regret to TSA agents.
Anyway, after the rude comment she just smirked and wrote XXX or something like that on my boarding card. I was like whatever, but when I got to the line at the gate and they checked my boarding card I got taken into a run for a "special" inspection. So unless you love body cavity searches don't be stupid and say things you are going to regret to TSA agents.
I mean, yeah, what else would you have expected?
You're lucky that it was only hand written. Some people get that printed on their boarding pass which means it will pretty much always happen to them.
I had a special sticker placed in my passport by Australia because I left my passport laying on the counter while having work gear inspected and paperwork. Didn't realize it until attempting to check in, and then left all of the gear with my coworker while I ran off to get the passport. When I returned with it, the official that was "helping" us with our gear placed the sticker in my passport. Everytime I returned to AU, I got the special screening minus cavity searches. It was my own damn fault, and I was never rude to anyone about it, but yeah, I probably did look a bit shady running off after leaving a stack of large pelican cases. Oh well, that passport has now expired and the new one is sticker free.
You're lucky that it was only hand written. Some people get that printed on their boarding pass which means it will pretty much always happen to them.
I had a special sticker placed in my passport by Australia because I left my passport laying on the counter while having work gear inspected and paperwork. Didn't realize it until attempting to check in, and then left all of the gear with my coworker while I ran off to get the passport. When I returned with it, the official that was "helping" us with our gear placed the sticker in my passport. Everytime I returned to AU, I got the special screening minus cavity searches. It was my own damn fault, and I was never rude to anyone about it, but yeah, I probably did look a bit shady running off after leaving a stack of large pelican cases. Oh well, that passport has now expired and the new one is sticker free.
> TSA was checking my green card
I would expect immigration and customs to check the green card. Immigration has never checked my boarding pass for what would be a potential onward flight. TSA would be at different area in the airport.
I would expect immigration and customs to check the green card. Immigration has never checked my boarding pass for what would be a potential onward flight. TSA would be at different area in the airport.
TSA checks ID. Most folks present a passport or drivers license, but a green card would probably be accepted there.
Yes the TSA will certainly accept a current permanent resident card (green card) as valid ID.
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/security-screening/identification
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/security-screening/identification
What gave you that impression? They're looking for hidden water bottles, not hidden diseases.
I assumed that comment was so obvisouly dripping with sarcasm that the /s wasn't needed, but that's what happens when on assumes
...perhaps an /ass may be needed?
Well the people don't get regular maintenance and inspections before every flight where the planes do for starters. It'd be concerning if a random group of a few hundred people were more reliably well than a given mechanical system their lives depend on.
Most people don’t even get a yearly inspection lol
I was on Sydney to LA and we diverted to Hawaii because a passenger died and was taken off. I found it curious that they wouldn’t just wait until LA as the person died in the air so it’s not like they needed immediate attention.
We all stayed on board and we’re maybe down for 20 minutes.
We all stayed on board and we’re maybe down for 20 minutes.
I would guess they diverted out of:
- respect for the dead: a person has just passed on. Many people want at least the illusion of deceased people being at rest, and would think it's undignified to bring the body all the way to the destination when it could be allowed to be taken off and "rest".
and
- the comfort of surrounding passengers: there's not a lot of free space on a passenger plane. I don't know if there are any procedures for moving a body to someplace more convenient to the other passengers, but doing so would kind of fly in the face of the previous point.
- respect for the dead: a person has just passed on. Many people want at least the illusion of deceased people being at rest, and would think it's undignified to bring the body all the way to the destination when it could be allowed to be taken off and "rest".
and
- the comfort of surrounding passengers: there's not a lot of free space on a passenger plane. I don't know if there are any procedures for moving a body to someplace more convenient to the other passengers, but doing so would kind of fly in the face of the previous point.
As others have pointed out, redundancy. Consider rather the likelihood of say 3 of 3 passengers falling ill - it's basically zero. (unless, as someone else pointed out, they all had the fish).
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Why would you say none of those reasons seem to be the case? We literally don't know, and there's not really any other reason (that's reasonably possible) other than those three.
I may have overstated my case there. Absence of evidence != evidence of absence, after all. Curious to see what the HN community makes of this though. Maybe it's a nothingburger.
LiveATC has archives of air traffic control comms in many places, it's possible that these flights are included. If we know the exact time, it might be possible for someone dedicated enough to check and see what the reported reason was.
If it's not a mechanical emergency (or even a caution) ATC often won't be informed; only if they need emergency equipment to meet, need priority, or have a security issue.
In other words if it's an airline policy diversion ATC may just see a plane requesting deviation from flight path.
In other words if it's an airline policy diversion ATC may just see a plane requesting deviation from flight path.
> longest stretch of ocean without diversions in the world.
I'm pretty sure this is wrong. LAX - Papetee is 8 hours and the only island that could break it up is probably Hawaii.
Not to mention Auckland->Santiago or Perth -> Jakarta.
I'm pretty sure this is wrong. LAX - Papetee is 8 hours and the only island that could break it up is probably Hawaii.
Not to mention Auckland->Santiago or Perth -> Jakarta.
https://simpleflying.com/etops-banned-areas/
Seems like ETOPS-330 and above is Santiago-Sydney and Auckland-Buenos Aires. These routes sound technically interesting but not especially fun for passengers. 17+ hours entirely over water.
Seems like ETOPS-330 and above is Santiago-Sydney and Auckland-Buenos Aires. These routes sound technically interesting but not especially fun for passengers. 17+ hours entirely over water.
Rarotonga is ~1000km more distant from LA with a similar great circle route.
By eyeball, there’s only a short segment where Hawaii is closer than LAX or PPT/RAR.
Kiribati might be an option but I don’t know if they have a runway sized for a 767.
By eyeball, there’s only a short segment where Hawaii is closer than LAX or PPT/RAR.
Kiribati might be an option but I don’t know if they have a runway sized for a 767.
Two useful tools for curious flyers: flights.google.com and milecalc.com
Sfo to papette is even longer, seems like no islands to break it up
This direct flight is probably the longest as you're pretty much over the Pacific from minutes after takeoff to minutes prior to landing. Hawaii is close to equidistant from either end (3800 to 4400 km).
If you can make it 2/3 of the way, Kiribati and Atuona Airport on Hiva Oa [1] look viable. If you can’t do that, I guess Kona/Hilo or Cabo are your “cross your fingers and pray” airports
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atuona_Airport
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atuona_Airport
There's an Auckland->Santiago? It doesn't overfly Antartica?
I'm missing out.
I knew there's a Santiago->South Pole. That I did know.
I'm missing out.
I knew there's a Santiago->South Pole. That I did know.
There’s an airport at the South Pole? I thought you landed at an ice airfield near a coastal base and overlanded directly to the pole
There's one at the Pole, capable of handling C-130s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_F._Paulus_Skiway
Other articles on the site point out that unexpectedly strong headwinds can cause the aircraft to need to return to refuel, and that some aircraft actually need to dump fuel before they can return to get the additional fuel.
This sounds like it might be playing a role. A while back someone posted an article about jet stream changes forcing commercial flights to land.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/gh/news/article/stronger-j...
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/gh/news/article/stronger-j...
Last year in June, my Hawaiian airlines flight leaving Honolulu turned back after 30 minutes into the flight.
No explanation was given, but they put us on a different plane about 3 hours later. But the experience was terrifying to be honest, when the pilot says we are turning around, and there are only miles of ocean in all directions.
No explanation was given, but they put us on a different plane about 3 hours later. But the experience was terrifying to be honest, when the pilot says we are turning around, and there are only miles of ocean in all directions.
People are typically scared of the plane falling out of the sky, right? If it helps at all, planes can still glide really really far with no engines. Not that that would happen.
another thing that sometimes reassures people is (ironically) watching those airplane disaster documentaries, e.g. on YouTube - you can see that planes are actually really robust, and lots of stuff has to go wrong at the same time before it's a real emergency, and how rare some of that stuff is. Mentour Pilot is an actual pilot who does accident documentaries sometimes.
another thing that sometimes reassures people is (ironically) watching those airplane disaster documentaries, e.g. on YouTube - you can see that planes are actually really robust, and lots of stuff has to go wrong at the same time before it's a real emergency, and how rare some of that stuff is. Mentour Pilot is an actual pilot who does accident documentaries sometimes.
If you're in the middle of the ocean no amount of gliding is going to get you off the ocean.
Air Transat Flight 236 would beg to differ
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Transat_Flight_236
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Transat_Flight_236
Well. Actually. They fly routes that keeps the within a single-engine distance to an airport as much as possible. (ETOPs) Gliding should even at least get you fairly close to land, if not to land.
I used to agree, until I found out about Alaska Airlines Flight 261. I'm not sure what fail-safes are built into current Boeing and Airbus planes, but having the horizontal stabilizers malfunction is my new worst case scenario when flying now.
Agreed. I did not get a license (thanks to getting married, getting old, having kids and stuff), however taking flying lessons was the best thing I ever did for myself. Planes want to stay in the air. They don't just crash.
Is this even an unusual number? Diversions are not uncommon, no?
It's usually hard to say. If you're going to do a diversion while flying across the pacific, you're probably going to go to Hawaii regardless of the reason.
And chaos theory says that there will occasionally be groupings of otherwise random events.
And chaos theory says that there will occasionally be groupings of otherwise random events.
This is diversions on flights TO Hawaii, not flights to elsewhere that diverted to Hawaii.
To and from Hawaii
...despite the confusing/misleading title "mid-air diversions to Hawaii".
Is there some rationale being implied here that I don't understand?
7 flight diversions over 3 weeks doesn't sound like some type of natural disaster or geopolitical conflict to me.
Not that I know anything. Genuinely curious.
7 flight diversions over 3 weeks doesn't sound like some type of natural disaster or geopolitical conflict to me.
Not that I know anything. Genuinely curious.
5 of them occured within one week, which is an uncommonly high rate of occurrence.
There is quite possibly no connection other than coincidence -- 2 of the 7 we're mechanical problems, after all -- but there may be some connection. For example, wind conditions could have been very unfavorable, putting the smaller aircraft closer to their range limits, exacerbating any other problems by reducing fuel margin.
There is quite possibly no connection other than coincidence -- 2 of the 7 we're mechanical problems, after all -- but there may be some connection. For example, wind conditions could have been very unfavorable, putting the smaller aircraft closer to their range limits, exacerbating any other problems by reducing fuel margin.
Hawaii is also pretty isolated geographically but has good infrastructure. If aircraft over the Pacific have issues, it's reasonable to expect them to go there.
Why not geopolitical? It's entirely possible that the US military is conducting surprise exercises/weapons tests in the northern Pacific that they gently request diversions away from, though I bet it's more likely to be spare parts supply chain crunches that are nudging airlines to stretch their metal thin (literally)
Note that four of the five not-definitely-known-to-be-mechanical incidents transmitted either to or from San Diego, where a lot of navy exercises start from (the shown flight track diverts near where the navy reported harassment from a mystery drone swarm). Would probably be neat to see if they lined up in time and see if there are any other flights that transmitted around then to immediately kill the hypothesis.
Note that four of the five not-definitely-known-to-be-mechanical incidents transmitted either to or from San Diego, where a lot of navy exercises start from (the shown flight track diverts near where the navy reported harassment from a mystery drone swarm). Would probably be neat to see if they lined up in time and see if there are any other flights that transmitted around then to immediately kill the hypothesis.
They would just tell planes not to fly there.
If it helps, in Europe (and with flights from Europe say to Toronto) the main cause for diversions are unruly passengers and technical issues.
Both are on a slight rise post covid
The airport was filled with "Be a little bitch, get a $1m fine" advertisements last time I flew. Was surprised, must be a bit of an issue.
> As you know, causes for flight diversions can range from medical (related to crew and passengers), weather (unlikely), unruly activity (we would have heard about that)
Honest question, not expressing an opinion: for "unruly activity" how would you have heard?
I was on a SFO-Toronto flight, and it diverted to Denver because a passenger got unruly & they had him taken off & arrested. Would this have appeared anywhere online?
Honest question, not expressing an opinion: for "unruly activity" how would you have heard?
I was on a SFO-Toronto flight, and it diverted to Denver because a passenger got unruly & they had him taken off & arrested. Would this have appeared anywhere online?
In today's society there's a pretty good chance of someone deciding it'll look good on TikTok or Reddit and start filming.
I think if you follow the ATC repost YouTubers, you have a pretty good chance of hearing about it. People are monitoring ATC 24/7 looking for something interesting to post.
https://avherald.com/ is also pretty thorough in terms of breadth.
https://avherald.com/ is also pretty thorough in terms of breadth.
I’ve seen news reports of this many times. I don’t think there’s anything to force the reporting, so maybe it’s missed sometimes?
> longest stretch of ocean without diversions in the world.
TIL.
From the linked article, you could be 3 hours away from a diversion when you are flying to Hawaii.
Thus, there is probably a lower threshold to divert, than say if you were flying trans-continental over the US where there are a lot of diversion options all along the route.
TIL.
From the linked article, you could be 3 hours away from a diversion when you are flying to Hawaii.
Thus, there is probably a lower threshold to divert, than say if you were flying trans-continental over the US where there are a lot of diversion options all along the route.
They kept the passengers onboard after landing while we watched the plane being fueled up before it took off again.
Apparently, someone forgot to fuel up the plane before takeoff AND the pilots missed it on their checklist. Last time I flew Aero Mexico.