Facebook scrambles to escape stock’s death spiral as users flee, sales drop(cnbc.com)
cnbc.com
Facebook scrambles to escape stock’s death spiral as users flee, sales drop
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/30/facebook-scrambles-to-escape-death-spiral-as-users-flee-sales-drop.html
33 comments
I've read "cyberpunk" novels so I had a certain vision of what a virtual world would look like that I probably share with a lot of people. Believe me, it's not the worlds biggest online cyber mall with cyber mall cops telling me to behave myself. Metaverse is a corporate wet dream. I regret spending money on my Oculus glasses.
I'd hoped the virtual world would start out and be built organically by people because it was fun, useful and anyone could make a little money, just like the early internet.
Foisting this mall world on us is not going to work. I hope they adjust.
I'd hoped the virtual world would start out and be built organically by people because it was fun, useful and anyone could make a little money, just like the early internet.
Foisting this mall world on us is not going to work. I hope they adjust.
> I'd hoped the virtual world would start out and be built organically by people because it was fun, useful and anyone could make a little money, just like the early internet.
The early internet having been so organically developed for fun and utility happened because money wasn't yet involved/in charge.
At this point could there ever again emerge any major new technology that wasn't either developed by a huge corporation or quickly acquired by a huge corporation?
Will we ever see a scenario again where such an important technology is allowed decades to emerge while it's ignored by industry for being too academic, too early, too much for nerds?
Today, even Wordle couldn't stay independent. How could anyone build a multiverse popular enough to have a network effect but not get invaded by spam, money, predation?
The early internet having been so organically developed for fun and utility happened because money wasn't yet involved/in charge.
At this point could there ever again emerge any major new technology that wasn't either developed by a huge corporation or quickly acquired by a huge corporation?
Will we ever see a scenario again where such an important technology is allowed decades to emerge while it's ignored by industry for being too academic, too early, too much for nerds?
Today, even Wordle couldn't stay independent. How could anyone build a multiverse popular enough to have a network effect but not get invaded by spam, money, predation?
The early internet was funded and created by the US government and DNS was run by them too. Then open standards committees were created to make sure everyone spoke the same tech language. No one owns the internet. There's no reason this can't be recreated.
There was an innocence that hadn't yet been lost then. We didn't have to worry about security, toxicity, and money in the early hobbyist/enthusiast internet of the 90s. We were able to let it be "built organically by people because it was fun".
The reason not everything was a mall was because it wasn't yet mainstream and there was a years-long head start before monetizing it at scale was solved. Today, the monetization (and other predatory) patterns already exist and will be ported over to any metaverse from the start.
Any metaverse will resemble Facebook or something equivalent. Discoverability will resemble Google or something equivalent. Community interaction will resemble Reddit or something equivalent. I don't see how this would be avoided.
The reason not everything was a mall was because it wasn't yet mainstream and there was a years-long head start before monetizing it at scale was solved. Today, the monetization (and other predatory) patterns already exist and will be ported over to any metaverse from the start.
Any metaverse will resemble Facebook or something equivalent. Discoverability will resemble Google or something equivalent. Community interaction will resemble Reddit or something equivalent. I don't see how this would be avoided.
There was all the same things we have now. But back then, being toxic was acceptable and when it went too far, admins came down with a ban hammer. Unlike back then, those banned people wouldn’t run away to some other place and cry out about how unfair the world is, especially that place they just got banned from. Mostly because there wasn’t “another place.”
The “innocence” wasn’t as innocent as you remember. The only reason it wasn’t monetized was because global payment systems weren’t really a thing yet. People sold things online anyway, it was just riskier than it is today. Today you can absolve your risk in a 2,5% + €0.30 flat rate, thanks to those trail-blazers of yesteryear.
Then people fixed bugs, and saw their sales decline. So they unfixed those bugs and consumers called them “dark patterns.” Some people started doing it on purpose, after hearing about fixing those bugs and what they did to sales.
Back then wasn’t so great. VR won’t be so great either. At least until we figure out how to spend more than a few hours in it, comfortably. Then it might get better.
The “innocence” wasn’t as innocent as you remember. The only reason it wasn’t monetized was because global payment systems weren’t really a thing yet. People sold things online anyway, it was just riskier than it is today. Today you can absolve your risk in a 2,5% + €0.30 flat rate, thanks to those trail-blazers of yesteryear.
Then people fixed bugs, and saw their sales decline. So they unfixed those bugs and consumers called them “dark patterns.” Some people started doing it on purpose, after hearing about fixing those bugs and what they did to sales.
Back then wasn’t so great. VR won’t be so great either. At least until we figure out how to spend more than a few hours in it, comfortably. Then it might get better.
Sure it can. Give me some way to build a virtual location on my desktop machine - virtual server vs. web server - and then design a protocol that lets people visit it, plus a discovery service that let's people find it. The discovery service could warn people if my site was harmful, like Google does now with web sites.
If the weird, unmonetized, organic virtual world existed now, there would be correlation between it being unmonetized, organic, and weird, and us not knowing about it.
> I regret spending money on my Oculus glasses.
The "Metaverse" might be a flop, but what about other VR games? There's tons of good ones out there.
And if you have a decent gaming PC, you can use your Oculus with it and play all the games on SteamVR.
The "Metaverse" might be a flop, but what about other VR games? There's tons of good ones out there.
And if you have a decent gaming PC, you can use your Oculus with it and play all the games on SteamVR.
That's my second disappointment. I prefer programming to playing games. Programming is my game. If I could stake a claim in the Metaverse and build Spalding Gray world (boxmonster comes from his Monster in a Box) so that Spalding was part of the virtual world then I would. Something similar to how I can build a website. Spalding Gray world just an example of what I'd like to be able to freely do for very little cost. The Metaverse should be more like Minecraft and less like AOL.
Do you program both for day job and after work as hobby? I love coding but sorta don’t let myself after work because I don’t wanna get burned out.
I watch movies to relax
What you describe exists in opensimulator worlds. It's friday night, so a lot of virtual parties going on: https://opensimworld.com/events
Cool, this is closer to what I think will ultimately be successful. From the FAQ: What is OpenSimWorld? OpenSimWorld is a directory of 3D worlds that use the open source OpenSimulator software and are connected to each other via the hypergrid functionality. OpenSimWorld is not a Grid, and we don't host or rent regions, we only provide an easy way to discover amazing virtual worlds and to advertise your own region.
That's primarily Second Life derived tech, right? SL was a pretty utopian attempt to create the Snowcrash metaverse, so if you want to understand why it wasn't (massively) successful you should investigate that.
A big part of the problem with attempts to create a metaverse, and the reason Facebook's efforts look so crude, is that it's very hard for ordinary people to create high quality and performant 3D content. Getting solid framerates in AAA games requires the art and tech teams to work very closely together, and for art to be constantly measured against performance goals in every scene the player could view. Also most AAA games are set indoors to limit draw distances. This kind of hyper-coordinated and planned effort just isn't compatible with a free-wheeling metaverse, so SL constantly had problems with performance.
For example, most people imagine the metaverse as starting from an open Earth-like world, therefore it is largely outdoor spaces. This implies potentially huge draw distances especially if you want a geographically contiguous space like SL had. Additionally, people loved to create objects that had way too many polygons, or textures that were too large, or more subtle problems like buildings with translucent windows. All this stuff seems fine and simple if you're a regular end user but to 3D rendering experts it's just a disaster because it requires so much overdraw.
Another key problem SL had was that the entire world was mutable, because the act of playing the game was the same thing as the act of building the game. AAA games rely heavily on large batch computations that optimize essentially static worlds with very carefully controlled mutation layered on top. For instance static lights are much cheaper than dynamic lights because you can 'bake' static lighting into textures. SL/metaverse isn't compatible with this sort of optimization process because at any moment someone might decide they like the light a different color, or in a different place, or to script it.
Finally, you have the tension between openness and professionalism. The utopian metaverse vision assumes a kind of roughly equal ability to create things, not just a small elite class of pro builders. The problem is that the better you make the world building tools, the quicker your population splits into a tiny creator class and a much larger passive consumer class. For instance SL had (has?) a small economy of people make and sell objects, in particular "clothes". Although in theory anyone can make anything, the more sophisticated your metaverse becomes the more quickly it becomes a consumer oriented culture. For a social network like Facebook this is problematic - the whole reason they got so huge is because social networks are great levellers. Twitter is of course the epitome of this approach in which you are literally prevented by software from writing anything long enough to be truly outstanding, but Facebook's design was very similar. There is no such thing as a professional tweeter or professional Facebook posters (the much more image-oriented Instagram does have professional posters).
So the ultra-crude Mii style approach is probably not the result of stupidity or lack of vision but rather an attempt to learn from prior metaverse efforts:
- Low quality graphics make it easy for people to create content.
- It sets expectations; this is not a world trying to look AAA quality and failing, it's not even trying.
- It frees up rendering resources to chew through extremely unoptimized content at a good frame rate. Especially vital if you're trying to achieve VR framerates!
A big part of the problem with attempts to create a metaverse, and the reason Facebook's efforts look so crude, is that it's very hard for ordinary people to create high quality and performant 3D content. Getting solid framerates in AAA games requires the art and tech teams to work very closely together, and for art to be constantly measured against performance goals in every scene the player could view. Also most AAA games are set indoors to limit draw distances. This kind of hyper-coordinated and planned effort just isn't compatible with a free-wheeling metaverse, so SL constantly had problems with performance.
For example, most people imagine the metaverse as starting from an open Earth-like world, therefore it is largely outdoor spaces. This implies potentially huge draw distances especially if you want a geographically contiguous space like SL had. Additionally, people loved to create objects that had way too many polygons, or textures that were too large, or more subtle problems like buildings with translucent windows. All this stuff seems fine and simple if you're a regular end user but to 3D rendering experts it's just a disaster because it requires so much overdraw.
Another key problem SL had was that the entire world was mutable, because the act of playing the game was the same thing as the act of building the game. AAA games rely heavily on large batch computations that optimize essentially static worlds with very carefully controlled mutation layered on top. For instance static lights are much cheaper than dynamic lights because you can 'bake' static lighting into textures. SL/metaverse isn't compatible with this sort of optimization process because at any moment someone might decide they like the light a different color, or in a different place, or to script it.
Finally, you have the tension between openness and professionalism. The utopian metaverse vision assumes a kind of roughly equal ability to create things, not just a small elite class of pro builders. The problem is that the better you make the world building tools, the quicker your population splits into a tiny creator class and a much larger passive consumer class. For instance SL had (has?) a small economy of people make and sell objects, in particular "clothes". Although in theory anyone can make anything, the more sophisticated your metaverse becomes the more quickly it becomes a consumer oriented culture. For a social network like Facebook this is problematic - the whole reason they got so huge is because social networks are great levellers. Twitter is of course the epitome of this approach in which you are literally prevented by software from writing anything long enough to be truly outstanding, but Facebook's design was very similar. There is no such thing as a professional tweeter or professional Facebook posters (the much more image-oriented Instagram does have professional posters).
So the ultra-crude Mii style approach is probably not the result of stupidity or lack of vision but rather an attempt to learn from prior metaverse efforts:
- Low quality graphics make it easy for people to create content.
- It sets expectations; this is not a world trying to look AAA quality and failing, it's not even trying.
- It frees up rendering resources to chew through extremely unoptimized content at a good frame rate. Especially vital if you're trying to achieve VR framerates!
Do you have any recommendations? Or must-reads in the genre?
Not to detract from your point about Meta, but isn't the online world in books like Snow Crash just as much of a corporate wet dream? I suppose it's more libertarian-corporate than what you might call the liberal-corporate of today, but it's still a brutal and gritty world.
> brutal and gritty world
I think that's the attraction for early adopters who build much of the foundations. Sort of like crypto, web3, DeFi and all that right now. A Wild West were only the smart survive and you can buy drugs and guns if you know how.
Zuckerberg's vision of the Metaverse is blessed by human resource managers who insist everyone follows the code of conduct and no one has genitals. It's bland and comfy, like a mall.
I think that's the attraction for early adopters who build much of the foundations. Sort of like crypto, web3, DeFi and all that right now. A Wild West were only the smart survive and you can buy drugs and guns if you know how.
Zuckerberg's vision of the Metaverse is blessed by human resource managers who insist everyone follows the code of conduct and no one has genitals. It's bland and comfy, like a mall.
I guess the natural follow-up question is, are you surprised at efforts to avoid making the mainstream internet into "a Wild West were only the smart survive and you can buy drugs and guns if you know how"? Let's not forget we're talking about the most popular and easiest to access parts of the internet. There is still a wild west in the deeper, darker corners of the web.
I don't think Zuckerberg enjoys having to police speech and behaviour and having to carefully design around that. It costs him time and money. More likely he does it for fear of losing money when the media reports on Facebook groups that spread hate, stir up racism, or share revenge porn.
I don't think Zuckerberg enjoys having to police speech and behaviour and having to carefully design around that. It costs him time and money. More likely he does it for fear of losing money when the media reports on Facebook groups that spread hate, stir up racism, or share revenge porn.
The US is a small percentage of FB usage. It is the internet in some countries.
Amazing that an iOS update did this though.
Amazing that an iOS update did this though.
According to this article [1] in the New York Times the introduction of Apple’s App Tracking Transparency isn’t among the four biggest challenges for Facebook. Daring Fireball has it summarized [2] like so:
“The age problem”: Young people aren’t using Facebook at all and are using Instagram less, but the success of both platforms as advertising revenue bonanzas is predicated on usage by the youth demographic.
“The innovation problem”: Facebook hasn’t invented a new hit since the blue app itself and its other successes were all acquired.
“The metaverse problem”: They’re betting the company on AR/VR, but it remains to be seen whether that’s going to be a big thing.
“The antitrust problem”: No summary necessary.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/22/briefing/facebook-metaver... [2] https://daringfireball.net/2022/08/facebooks_problems
“The age problem”: Young people aren’t using Facebook at all and are using Instagram less, but the success of both platforms as advertising revenue bonanzas is predicated on usage by the youth demographic.
“The innovation problem”: Facebook hasn’t invented a new hit since the blue app itself and its other successes were all acquired.
“The metaverse problem”: They’re betting the company on AR/VR, but it remains to be seen whether that’s going to be a big thing.
“The antitrust problem”: No summary necessary.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/22/briefing/facebook-metaver... [2] https://daringfireball.net/2022/08/facebooks_problems
In Thailand, the new Bangkok governor do Facebook live almost every day on his work. 100,000+ views on almost every video from a city of 8m.
It is truly refreshing to have this kind of transparency.
I have faith in FB. It is a good communication/community tool. They have to tone down the VR thing a bit. It is not the time for VR yet.
It is truly refreshing to have this kind of transparency.
I have faith in FB. It is a good communication/community tool. They have to tone down the VR thing a bit. It is not the time for VR yet.
I'd rather FB tone down the blatant anti-privacy practices against their users first.
We are talking about how FB can survive, not how it would be nice for you.
Also, this may come as a surprise to you, but, in many other parts of the world, privacy is low in priority to solve, especially in developing countries.
Also, this may come as a surprise to you, but, in many other parts of the world, privacy is low in priority to solve, especially in developing countries.
And it’s difficult for facebook to argue that apple giving users the option to keep their data private was anticompetitive.
This is the classic problem of building on someone else’s platform. I know facebook tried their own phone and bubble based android launchers, but they seemed to give that up too easily. In comparison to the money being spent on meta, attacking their weaknesses on the device front might have been a better avenue. They could have bought their way in rather than building it.
This is the classic problem of building on someone else’s platform. I know facebook tried their own phone and bubble based android launchers, but they seemed to give that up too easily. In comparison to the money being spent on meta, attacking their weaknesses on the device front might have been a better avenue. They could have bought their way in rather than building it.
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Examining away the current FB disaster with an iOS update completely missed the point.
Facebook has one customer: advertisers and billions of products.
The only way for them to fuck this up is to screw their advertisers (mostly small businesses) to the extent that THE ADVERTISERS LEAVE. Yes users leaving is bad, but if they continued to evolve their ad product it would easily be possible to compensate for that... except they aren't about evolving things so much as they are about breaking things... At their customers expense (advertisers).
Having spent many many years with a Facebook ad budget measured in percentages of a multimillion dollar gross, which is now zero due to being sold bot impressions constantly, and having my ability to remove those bot impressions... removed.. My guess is that at this point I am not alone.
Going from 8% gross to zero is going to hurt if it happens across every small business in the country.
If you own FB stock... Consider yourself warned. It's WAY worse than Musk's estimate of 20% bots on Twitter (because the bots are written to... Well... Engage with ads and thereby avoid being banned by generating revenue for FB).
The Metaverse will not solve this problem. Ever.
Facebook has one customer: advertisers and billions of products.
The only way for them to fuck this up is to screw their advertisers (mostly small businesses) to the extent that THE ADVERTISERS LEAVE. Yes users leaving is bad, but if they continued to evolve their ad product it would easily be possible to compensate for that... except they aren't about evolving things so much as they are about breaking things... At their customers expense (advertisers).
Having spent many many years with a Facebook ad budget measured in percentages of a multimillion dollar gross, which is now zero due to being sold bot impressions constantly, and having my ability to remove those bot impressions... removed.. My guess is that at this point I am not alone.
Going from 8% gross to zero is going to hurt if it happens across every small business in the country.
If you own FB stock... Consider yourself warned. It's WAY worse than Musk's estimate of 20% bots on Twitter (because the bots are written to... Well... Engage with ads and thereby avoid being banned by generating revenue for FB).
The Metaverse will not solve this problem. Ever.
how much money do you think they make in countries where they are "the internet..."?
Glad to see my quitfacebook.org is finally getting some sweet action.
Many of my friends moved off due to censorship, even my state republican group moved over to mewe, my gf's book club moved to mewe, few of my family members closed their fb due to politics on their hobby groups.
Seems like all the big platforms are running off users. I use to watch my podcasts on youtube, now its at least a 3rd on rumble.
Its kinda neat that the big corps politics are spawning up tons of other platforms.
Seems like all the big platforms are running off users. I use to watch my podcasts on youtube, now its at least a 3rd on rumble.
Its kinda neat that the big corps politics are spawning up tons of other platforms.
This must be why I suddenly started receiving emails for things I normally only get push notifications for.
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They're trying to juice ad numbers by jamming more Tiktok style reels into people's IG feeds, which will likely cause an even bigger exodus among IG's biggest accounts.