U.S. to announce fusion energy ‘breakthrough’(washingtonpost.com)
washingtonpost.com
U.S. to announce fusion energy ‘breakthrough’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/12/11/fusion-nuclear-energy-breakthrough/
34 comments
And this applies 10000X fold to battery and fusion announcements which seem to come daily.
Can you please remind us the last time the Department of Energy announced that net-positive energy fusion was achieved?
So we should make an exception because it DoE?
I'm apparently in minority here, but I've suffered announcement fatigue and will very like to focus on more achievable (= practical) near-term solutions, of which there are many.
I'm apparently in minority here, but I've suffered announcement fatigue and will very like to focus on more achievable (= practical) near-term solutions, of which there are many.
Yes, we should make an exception when the government agency that manages the world's largest supply of nuclear weapons and materials vets a claim. Obviously.
See also the Financial Times, which originally reported the story: https://www.ft.com/content/4b6f0fab-66ef-4e33-adec-cfc345589...
> The laboratory confirmed that a successful experiment had recently taken place at its National Ignition Facility but said analysis of the results was ongoing.
> “Initial diagnostic data suggests another successful experiment at the National Ignition Facility. However, the exact yield is still being determined and we can’t confirm that it is over the threshold at this time,” it said. “That analysis is in process, so publishing the information . . . before that process is complete would be inaccurate.”
> “Initial diagnostic data suggests another successful experiment at the National Ignition Facility. However, the exact yield is still being determined and we can’t confirm that it is over the threshold at this time,” it said. “That analysis is in process, so publishing the information . . . before that process is complete would be inaccurate.”
Yes. This story has proven impossible to wait for because it was leaked and is being widely reported, so I guess we're going with https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33945863 - as you say, that article seems to be the 'original source' of at least the current wave.
"The Department of Energy plans to announce Tuesday that scientists have been able for the first time to produce a fusion reaction that creates a net energy gain"
Oh, just like this time in 2013, https://www.science.org/content/article/fusion-breakthrough-..., and this one in 2021 https://www.sciencealert.com/for-the-first-time-a-fusion-rea...
Which definition of breakeven are they using this time? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JurplDfPi3U&t=3s
Oh, just like this time in 2013, https://www.science.org/content/article/fusion-breakthrough-..., and this one in 2021 https://www.sciencealert.com/for-the-first-time-a-fusion-rea...
Which definition of breakeven are they using this time? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JurplDfPi3U&t=3s
To add another point to the above post, the lab in question a year ago made the following statement regarding fusion. The hype circle continues...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/17/lawrence-livermore-lab-makes...
Excerpt copied for emphasis:
Hurricane, however, is more cautious about seeing fusion as an answer to a need for clean energy.
“While our team is very excited about this result, because it is a hard won science/engineering achievement, I don’t see it as being useful for a clean energy source. The learning from our result may, however, be relevant,” Hurricane tells CNBC.
“I am very concerned, in general, about fusion being hyped as a solution for climate change,” he says. “My personal opinion is that fusion energy is still a future technology, so it would be foolish for people bet the planet on fusion addressing the immediate climate concerns.”
Also noteworthy, research at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory National Ignition Facility is part of the Stockpile Stewardship Program, a government effort born in 1995 to study aging nuclear weapons without nuclear testing.
“One of the original visions for the NIF was for it to be a substitute for underground nuclear testing, keeping weapons scientists tethered to the reality of experiment so that the Nation can depend upon their skills, knowledge, and most importantly judgement,” said Hurricane. “This new result helps support that vision.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/17/lawrence-livermore-lab-makes...
Excerpt copied for emphasis:
Hurricane, however, is more cautious about seeing fusion as an answer to a need for clean energy.
“While our team is very excited about this result, because it is a hard won science/engineering achievement, I don’t see it as being useful for a clean energy source. The learning from our result may, however, be relevant,” Hurricane tells CNBC.
“I am very concerned, in general, about fusion being hyped as a solution for climate change,” he says. “My personal opinion is that fusion energy is still a future technology, so it would be foolish for people bet the planet on fusion addressing the immediate climate concerns.”
Also noteworthy, research at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory National Ignition Facility is part of the Stockpile Stewardship Program, a government effort born in 1995 to study aging nuclear weapons without nuclear testing.
“One of the original visions for the NIF was for it to be a substitute for underground nuclear testing, keeping weapons scientists tethered to the reality of experiment so that the Nation can depend upon their skills, knowledge, and most importantly judgement,” said Hurricane. “This new result helps support that vision.”
Yes, they have been working on this for years and making progress, what's your point?
NIF will suck research dollars from programs more likely become powerplant platforms.
Click-bait wins. Not that it really matters, it will always be 30 years away.
Click-bait wins. Not that it really matters, it will always be 30 years away.
NIF is not for power plant research. It's an end run around the nuclear test ban treaty. The US signed a treaty promising to not conduct any nuclear weapons tests. So the NIF creates a functional equivalent by smashing energy from 192 high energy lasers into a very small space, the interior of a hohlraum. At the center of the hohlraum is a tiny capsule of deuterium and tritium. And under all that energy, for a brief moment, some of the tritium and deuterium fuse.
...you realize that has nothing to do with conventional nuclear weapons other than being a neutron source for more complete fission of a fissile primary right?
Most of the energy in "fusion" weapon is all fission based.
You aren't going to turn a hohlraum into the basis of a bomb.
Most of the energy in "fusion" weapon is all fission based.
You aren't going to turn a hohlraum into the basis of a bomb.
the point is that "first time" happened several times before already according to references.
Well, if the definition of "net energy" keeps expanding to include more of the experimental infrastructure, that is progress and we are just splitting hairs about wording - which is a real waste, considering they are one of the few groups with consistent tangible experimental improvements.
In 2021, that was 1.3 megajoules, or net in comparison to the energy absorbed by the fuel. This is a bigger milestone at 2.5 megajoules, since it is in reference to the energy in the lasers themselves.
In 2021, that was 1.3 megajoules, or net in comparison to the energy absorbed by the fuel. This is a bigger milestone at 2.5 megajoules, since it is in reference to the energy in the lasers themselves.
> that is progress and we are just splitting hairs about wording - which is a real waste
we (those who don't have deep expertise) trying to understand what is "breakthrough" and "net energy" in this case comparing to previous claims. Your explanation added some value on this, thank you.
we (those who don't have deep expertise) trying to understand what is "breakthrough" and "net energy" in this case comparing to previous claims. Your explanation added some value on this, thank you.
I have been following this work for a few years but I am no expert. Both numbers, and both explanations as to their significance, are from the articles linked in this thread. The next step will likely be net energy in respect to the entire system - or unqualified net energy. From there it is work on improving efficiency and scaling to commercial usefulness, which of course might be just as hard.
This is just popular scientific journalism/clickbaiting, they also claim it "provides unlimited, cheap, clean power" which is also not true precisely speaking.
It's the NIF at LLNL, these people are studying weapons, not clean energy. If they discovered something about clean energy in a hohlraum, it's secondary or tertiary to the real findings.
They are studying both equally. The official term is "dual-use" technology, which is a major focus at all national labs.
And there's nothing wrong with studying weapons for our national defense, so all discoveries are welcome.
I think many people (myself included) think there is something wrong with developing new nuclear bomb technologies specifically.
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The image on the top of this article is a hohlraum, used in laser fusion.
The article is scant on details, but does mention that a powerful laser is involved.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohlraum
The article is scant on details, but does mention that a powerful laser is involved.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohlraum
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Let me guess: fusion for power generation is just 20 years away...
Wake me up when there's a fusion tax on my power bill.
Wake me up when there's a fusion tax on my power bill.
The irony of putting a potentially civilization-altering breakthrough behind a newspaper paywall is not lost on me.
Which also leads me to believe, it's a breakthrough only in the sense of a successful experiment somewhere.
Which also leads me to believe, it's a breakthrough only in the sense of a successful experiment somewhere.
Another Washington Post irony is that they had the tongue-in-cheek but applaudable bravery to put quotes (albeit single ones) around 'Breakthrough' in their Title -- unlike other new sources trying to appear relevant by jumping on the coattails of this leak.
Well-played WP, well-played.
Well-played WP, well-played.
Pretty sure we'll just be able to ask ChatGPT how to build a fusion reactor. Let's get to work!!
"Announcement of an announcement" is an offtopic category on HN: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor...
We can afford to burn the layer(s) of indirection and just wait until the thing itself exists: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so....