Ask HN: Exit strategy for those with only digital skills amid the AI revolution?
46 comments
To be completely honest, I think the "exit strategy" for EVERYONE here is to go into activism / politics.
AI can be a huge booster for many things, but it's going to increase inequalities WILDLY, even for people who thought they were "safe and out of reach"
If we make robots work for us, the benefits should be equitably redistributed to everyone (and that means everyone, even to other countries through subsidies, etc)
This means: TAX THE RICH, REDISTRIBUTE, PROTECT DEMOCRACY
this is the only way forward (and also: PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT)
and as much as AI might help to make discoveries it's going to:
- burn electricity and pollute, increasing climate change (think about people replacing "watching Netflix" by "let's burn 5h of GPU to generate my own personal movie for tonight, and repeat that every night, multiplied by 7 billion people)
- increase inequalities (why would Jeff Bezos and Sam Altman get 99% of the profit of a tech which is largely developed through the shared contribution of ALL OF HUMANITY in the form of texts, images, videos on the internet used as training)
- lower confidence in democracy (think incredibly realistic deep-fakes, very smart "troll bots" on Twitter working for foreign powers)
- lower confidence in the social fabric (people preferring AI girlfriends to real people, bullying each other, making "nude AI photographs")
AI can be a huge booster for many things, but it's going to increase inequalities WILDLY, even for people who thought they were "safe and out of reach"
If we make robots work for us, the benefits should be equitably redistributed to everyone (and that means everyone, even to other countries through subsidies, etc)
This means: TAX THE RICH, REDISTRIBUTE, PROTECT DEMOCRACY
this is the only way forward (and also: PROTECT THE ENVIRONMENT)
and as much as AI might help to make discoveries it's going to:
- burn electricity and pollute, increasing climate change (think about people replacing "watching Netflix" by "let's burn 5h of GPU to generate my own personal movie for tonight, and repeat that every night, multiplied by 7 billion people)
- increase inequalities (why would Jeff Bezos and Sam Altman get 99% of the profit of a tech which is largely developed through the shared contribution of ALL OF HUMANITY in the form of texts, images, videos on the internet used as training)
- lower confidence in democracy (think incredibly realistic deep-fakes, very smart "troll bots" on Twitter working for foreign powers)
- lower confidence in the social fabric (people preferring AI girlfriends to real people, bullying each other, making "nude AI photographs")
Just vote.
You don't need to up-end your life into full-blown activism to bring change. You just need to vote. IMO, trying to do everything is just going to discourage people. Trying to tax the rich and fix democracy is a good goal, but orthogonal to controlling the impact of AI, so packaging it together is likewise going to discourage people.
Even if you disagree, the first step to any of that is to actually get out and vote. Don't fall into the trap of being politically active online and then sitting home at elections because you bought into the lie that individual votes won't make a difference.
You don't need to up-end your life into full-blown activism to bring change. You just need to vote. IMO, trying to do everything is just going to discourage people. Trying to tax the rich and fix democracy is a good goal, but orthogonal to controlling the impact of AI, so packaging it together is likewise going to discourage people.
Even if you disagree, the first step to any of that is to actually get out and vote. Don't fall into the trap of being politically active online and then sitting home at elections because you bought into the lie that individual votes won't make a difference.
Of course, but right now no party has a clear recommendation on the effects of AI on workforce, that's why we need militants to educate politicians
[deleted]
it's going to be an "industrial revolution" all over again, except this time the "factory workers" of yesterday are going to be even us, the "knowledge workers"
So we better learn from history, and ask the people in power to redistribute before the social fabric is completely destroyed and people can barely sustain themselves
So we better learn from history, and ask the people in power to redistribute before the social fabric is completely destroyed and people can barely sustain themselves
> Just vote.
This, and staying informed with reliable sources.
This, and staying informed with reliable sources.
> It's obvious that my entire spectrum of artistry is going to be replaced by AI, sooner or later.
No, that’s not obvious or even likely, on any time horizon any of us needs to worry about. So-called AI is mostly hype at this point. It may obsolete some jobs but will create new opportunities, like past technological leaps.
Despite what self-serving executives or the witless media say, “AI” didn’t drive the waves of layoffs.
> People in my situation, what are your plans?
Did you make plans for $10/hr programmers in Bangladesh taking your job away? Or computer-generated music making producers redundant? Neither did I.
No, that’s not obvious or even likely, on any time horizon any of us needs to worry about. So-called AI is mostly hype at this point. It may obsolete some jobs but will create new opportunities, like past technological leaps.
Despite what self-serving executives or the witless media say, “AI” didn’t drive the waves of layoffs.
> People in my situation, what are your plans?
Did you make plans for $10/hr programmers in Bangladesh taking your job away? Or computer-generated music making producers redundant? Neither did I.
There needs to be strict regulations on U.S. businesses to disallow them from hiring anyone that is not a citizen or on a visa.
Products that are developed in other countries also must have such an expensive tariff it basically discourages the purchasing of it.
Products that are developed in other countries also must have such an expensive tariff it basically discourages the purchasing of it.
US law already imposes fines and penalties on hiring people trying to work illegally in the US. But offshoring by contract is legal and fairly common. My point is, offshoring started decades ago but hasn’t made a big dent in US tech employment. I remember the panics about offshoring and how we’d all lose our jobs. Didn’t happen.
Every country uses tariffs and trade restrictions already and have for centuries. Complete isolation isn’t possible unless you like living in North Korea, and doesn’t make economic sense. The US has benefited far more than it has lost from global trade, so I don’t find this argument compelling. It’s simplistic xenophobia and nationalism.
Every country uses tariffs and trade restrictions already and have for centuries. Complete isolation isn’t possible unless you like living in North Korea, and doesn’t make economic sense. The US has benefited far more than it has lost from global trade, so I don’t find this argument compelling. It’s simplistic xenophobia and nationalism.
>> I remember the panics about offshoring and how we’d all lose our jobs. Didn’t happen.
Well it kinda did, just not yet in the tech space. But manufacturing has certainly taken a giant hit over the last few decades. There has also been a fair bit in tech but fortunately there's a Lot of tech still to do, so there's plenty of work to go around.
All that said, I agree with your thesis that trade is a net gain at the societal level, while potentially being a net loss for some at the individual level.
Xenophobia and Nationalism are not the solution.
Well it kinda did, just not yet in the tech space. But manufacturing has certainly taken a giant hit over the last few decades. There has also been a fair bit in tech but fortunately there's a Lot of tech still to do, so there's plenty of work to go around.
All that said, I agree with your thesis that trade is a net gain at the societal level, while potentially being a net loss for some at the individual level.
Xenophobia and Nationalism are not the solution.
Offshoring / visas do not account for remote work. U.S. trade restrictions are usually light and can be bypassed easily.
The argument for it is one of vertical integration. A nation should control the items it creates, from banking to military end to end as much as possible. That also maximizes security. Look at the Boeing documents from the engineer over 10 years ago questioning outsourcing. All of your pii and banking data is probably managed by dbas in Asia. That does not sound secure or safe to me.
We are heading towards a time and place where we will not produce anything as a country. Many areas that were once prosperous now are destitute. People live by dealing drugs and by taking as much from the government as possible where their parents worked in factories. People’s respect and dignity have been offshored and outsourced.
Trying to do what’s best for a country and its people is not xenophobic. It’s common sense. It’s very sad and disconcerting to see us citizens wanting the most from their country having their ideas labeled as xenophobic.
I acknowledge U.S. trade has benefited but we are seeing signs of cracks and the side effects of it now. I also don’t think the average American has benefited from it. Living in Bangalore (nicer areas)felt like America in the 90s to me — the same places I used to enjoy in America that are now infested with crime .
The argument for it is one of vertical integration. A nation should control the items it creates, from banking to military end to end as much as possible. That also maximizes security. Look at the Boeing documents from the engineer over 10 years ago questioning outsourcing. All of your pii and banking data is probably managed by dbas in Asia. That does not sound secure or safe to me.
We are heading towards a time and place where we will not produce anything as a country. Many areas that were once prosperous now are destitute. People live by dealing drugs and by taking as much from the government as possible where their parents worked in factories. People’s respect and dignity have been offshored and outsourced.
Trying to do what’s best for a country and its people is not xenophobic. It’s common sense. It’s very sad and disconcerting to see us citizens wanting the most from their country having their ideas labeled as xenophobic.
I acknowledge U.S. trade has benefited but we are seeing signs of cracks and the side effects of it now. I also don’t think the average American has benefited from it. Living in Bangalore (nicer areas)felt like America in the 90s to me — the same places I used to enjoy in America that are now infested with crime .
Remote workers are either US citizens or green card holders, which means subject to US taxes regardless of where they live, or contractors not subject to employment laws or taxes. At scale offshoring generally means moving entire factories or business units to countries with cheaper labor costs and/or more lax regulations. I look at that trend like any other historical economic trend: it creates both winners and losers.
The US government ceased to represent the American people in favor of corporations and the wealthy some time ago. That’s also the norm for governments, historically. Attempts to change that get called socialism and dismissed in America. It’s too late for isolationism, but I agree that corporations have a responsibility to balance the effects of offshoring and imports so America doesn’t get hollowed out. You can see how that has worked out.
The US government ceased to represent the American people in favor of corporations and the wealthy some time ago. That’s also the norm for governments, historically. Attempts to change that get called socialism and dismissed in America. It’s too late for isolationism, but I agree that corporations have a responsibility to balance the effects of offshoring and imports so America doesn’t get hollowed out. You can see how that has worked out.
> It's obvious that my entire spectrum of artistry is going to be replaced by AI
No it isn't obvious. Calculators didn't replace 100% of mathematicians and accountants. The market will grow, the economy will grow, there will be more prosperity and the people will want even more thing/services. There will be new type of jobs. And don't assume AI will be able to do anything just because now it can do something that was considered impossible.
No it isn't obvious. Calculators didn't replace 100% of mathematicians and accountants. The market will grow, the economy will grow, there will be more prosperity and the people will want even more thing/services. There will be new type of jobs. And don't assume AI will be able to do anything just because now it can do something that was considered impossible.
Something I'm curious about:
There used to be a time when a "computer"[1] was an actual human being, whose full-time job was to perform mathematical calculations.
That job is basically obsolete now obviously, but I do wonder how they managed the transition when it became clear that their job will be automated away.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_(occupation)
There used to be a time when a "computer"[1] was an actual human being, whose full-time job was to perform mathematical calculations.
That job is basically obsolete now obviously, but I do wonder how they managed the transition when it became clear that their job will be automated away.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_(occupation)
Thats a very specific example, and I confess I don't know say ex-calculators to ask. Let me substitute with a more main-stream example. Secretaries.
My mother trained as a typist. She worked in a large open plan space doing, well, typing. From there you got promoted to being a secretary, taking dictation, typing, scheduling, and so on.
Today "secretarys" in that sense are mostly gone. I write my own emails. I manage my own schedule. We now have 2 "impersonal assistants", or "office managers" (or whatever else we should call them). They answer the phone, organise catering when needed, do a million admin-type tasks, process orders, keep the kitchen stocked and a bunch of other things that keep the office moving smoothly.
My point is the at the bottom end, roles morph. There are lots of useful things to do, and when done well you notice. (Ours are very good, we pay them well.)
AI is a tool. Just like any tool it will replace some jobs and create others. Change can be scary, but as one who has lived through many changes I can encourage by saying that change also brings opportunities. We can't predict the future but we can adapt to the present.
[1] Annecsotally the movie Hidden Figures showed them transitioning to programmers. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hidden_Figures
My mother trained as a typist. She worked in a large open plan space doing, well, typing. From there you got promoted to being a secretary, taking dictation, typing, scheduling, and so on.
Today "secretarys" in that sense are mostly gone. I write my own emails. I manage my own schedule. We now have 2 "impersonal assistants", or "office managers" (or whatever else we should call them). They answer the phone, organise catering when needed, do a million admin-type tasks, process orders, keep the kitchen stocked and a bunch of other things that keep the office moving smoothly.
My point is the at the bottom end, roles morph. There are lots of useful things to do, and when done well you notice. (Ours are very good, we pay them well.)
AI is a tool. Just like any tool it will replace some jobs and create others. Change can be scary, but as one who has lived through many changes I can encourage by saying that change also brings opportunities. We can't predict the future but we can adapt to the present.
[1] Annecsotally the movie Hidden Figures showed them transitioning to programmers. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hidden_Figures
If you are a framework junky who also cannot write original software then, and only then, be very afraid. You are easy to hire, and easy to fire, and AI will be coming for your once popular job with no entry barrier job that paid enormously well for knowing next to nothing and contributing even less. If on the other hand you can actually write original software that solves real problems you are fine assuming the problems have not already been solved a million times before with copy/paste plus a config file.
Honestly, its my hope AI gets a lot of people fired. The entire point of software is only automation. The original goal of software was to eliminate manual effort (jobs). When software itself becomes a manual effort of little more than copy/paste, like making a CRUD app with React, then the industry has failed on a leadership, hiring, and training level.
As with everything you should have a back up plan. After being laid off last year I abandoned my software development career for data science and enterprise API management. I could afford to be patient about that because I have a back up plan, a second unrelated career in management that I was able to turn into a full time job for a while.
Everything in the modern world is all about micro-successes in only 3 areas: sales, credentials, and experience. A sale is any activity that directly influences an outside party to make a decision directly in your favor. A credential is any recognized certification such as formal education, license, contract, government blessing in writing, and so forth. Both sales and credentials are non-practical social constructs. Experience is the only practical consideration on the list formed from time on utility. If you have those 3 things you can move into any career and/or wealth investment at will.
Honestly, its my hope AI gets a lot of people fired. The entire point of software is only automation. The original goal of software was to eliminate manual effort (jobs). When software itself becomes a manual effort of little more than copy/paste, like making a CRUD app with React, then the industry has failed on a leadership, hiring, and training level.
As with everything you should have a back up plan. After being laid off last year I abandoned my software development career for data science and enterprise API management. I could afford to be patient about that because I have a back up plan, a second unrelated career in management that I was able to turn into a full time job for a while.
Everything in the modern world is all about micro-successes in only 3 areas: sales, credentials, and experience. A sale is any activity that directly influences an outside party to make a decision directly in your favor. A credential is any recognized certification such as formal education, license, contract, government blessing in writing, and so forth. Both sales and credentials are non-practical social constructs. Experience is the only practical consideration on the list formed from time on utility. If you have those 3 things you can move into any career and/or wealth investment at will.
Maybe, but so far e.g. AI generated images haven't replaced good graphic illustrators. Once they can produce high-quality, consistent illustrations maybe, but they're not there yet, and I would argue that you still need a "professional" to work with AI-generated content as most folks don't have an eye for good design. Personally I'm already a bit tired of all the AI-generated content, people overuse it a lot in presentations and on websites and it's often slightly interesting to look at but also a bit bland and uncreative in its own overblown way (not sure how to describe this better). I still really like websites with high-quality, hand-drawn illustrations like e.g. fly.io or the early versions of the Dropbox website. So I would assume that illustrators will still exist but they will use AI tools to speed up their own workflows, much as we use digital tools today to speed up our work.
Just be open to those technologies and learn how to integrate them into your day.
We don't actually write code or run servers, we add value with those skills, along with project planning etc.
Development is easy, doing what people want (customers, your boss) is hard. Or even figuring it out.
If this ever becomes fully automated, it is very likely that no other job will exist. Many trades people, medicine and lawyers would also lose their jobs.
Most logistics jobs would be also gone. In that case, likely everybody will vote against this, or just live from UBI. So, nothing to worry.
Who has to worry are folks that got nothing, never had a career and live in a third world country plagued by malaria, those will be the last ones to make a living on UBI.
Instead of being anxious about the future, just keep on learning and trying to have a good time. People like to follow those who have a good time.
We don't actually write code or run servers, we add value with those skills, along with project planning etc.
Development is easy, doing what people want (customers, your boss) is hard. Or even figuring it out.
If this ever becomes fully automated, it is very likely that no other job will exist. Many trades people, medicine and lawyers would also lose their jobs.
Most logistics jobs would be also gone. In that case, likely everybody will vote against this, or just live from UBI. So, nothing to worry.
Who has to worry are folks that got nothing, never had a career and live in a third world country plagued by malaria, those will be the last ones to make a living on UBI.
Instead of being anxious about the future, just keep on learning and trying to have a good time. People like to follow those who have a good time.
Why obvious? Computers have been augmenting human skills without replacing them for a generation. Did copilot make all your coding skills obsolete or did it multiply your efforts? Does DevOps automation remove the need to DevOps skills or allow you to do more?
Remember that story of the doctor who leaned on chat gpt to communicate calmly and effectively with his patient’s family so they stopped interrupting with backseat care advice? Did the language automation replace him or improve his efficiency and communications effectiveness?
We’ll probably see another generation of computer augmented human effort before AI people start operating autonomously. If you care to prepare for a big transition focus on that one, but it will be a social transition not necessarily a technical one.
Build audience. Learn sales. No one can take you that away.
I am working on 485789344573985749 projects where I am trying to build audiences and create products and AI is very helpful in such a situation.
Also as a developer you can use AI in various ways to help you out for simple dev tasks :)
I am working on 485789344573985749 projects where I am trying to build audiences and create products and AI is very helpful in such a situation.
Also as a developer you can use AI in various ways to help you out for simple dev tasks :)
Btw what code do you write?
You are trying to hedge against a future which is both much richer in absolute terms but much less lucrative re/ your current skills. So the minimum viable strat is: Invest in index funds. Trust that the world's biggest firms are also probably pretty interested in increasing their economic productivity. Let the wheel turn. That's my "macro" strategy.
My "micro" strategy is to continue to work hard, go for interesting niches and keep learning how to increase my own output.
My "micro" strategy is to continue to work hard, go for interesting niches and keep learning how to increase my own output.
I've got two thoughts about this:
1. Industries don't go from 0% automated to 100% automated instantly. AI is still in its infancy, and still doesn't do a lot of things very well. I think we can last a while more before there's a significant change in how the industry works.
2. There's little stopping us from taking the other side of the trade. If you were selling software instead of software engineering labour, then it will be a very good thing for you that AI is driving down the costs of developing that software.
1. Industries don't go from 0% automated to 100% automated instantly. AI is still in its infancy, and still doesn't do a lot of things very well. I think we can last a while more before there's a significant change in how the industry works.
2. There's little stopping us from taking the other side of the trade. If you were selling software instead of software engineering labour, then it will be a very good thing for you that AI is driving down the costs of developing that software.
Become a lawyer or a doctor. Or any trade man as a matter of fact.
If the premise is that knowledge work is disappearing, I don’t see why law or medicine would be safe.
Lawyers (whom most lawmakers are) will build a moat of law around themselves and their profession. Doctors have enough money to hire lawyers to do the same.
And to be clear, I mostly mean lobbying groups and political organizations that have the time and energy to do this.
And to be clear, I mostly mean lobbying groups and political organizations that have the time and energy to do this.
I guess it is lobbying but there is some level of unions or protections that doctors or lawyers have that maintain gatekeeping and next to impossible to be out sourced.
Tech is the only sector that generated immense wealth and has zero protection.
Tech is the only sector that generated immense wealth and has zero protection.
Offshoring is going to take tech jobs before AI will.
Do u have any data behind this?
These aren't going to be replaced by AI in your lifetime.
My advice is to stop reading the hyped-up articles online, and go outside. Your job will be fine.
My advice is to stop reading the hyped-up articles online, and go outside. Your job will be fine.
Perhaps "his job" won't, but the one of his kids will. So he better prepare, with activism and politics
No, I’m sorry, but the idea that all computer work is going to be replaced by some amorphous AI that doesn’t require any management or direction is nonsense. These are new tools that people will have to learn.
My plans are to remain curious, to spend many hours exploring/learning.
I am fairly confident about my capacity to adapt, I truly enjoy learning, many people don't.
I don't see any valid reasons why
- a non filmmaker using AI would replace a filmmaker using AI
- a non-programmer using AI would replace a programmer using AI.
So, I am not really worried.
I am fairly confident about my capacity to adapt, I truly enjoy learning, many people don't.
I don't see any valid reasons why
- a non filmmaker using AI would replace a filmmaker using AI
- a non-programmer using AI would replace a programmer using AI.
So, I am not really worried.
My plan is to get a government clearance. The work that requires it is harder to outsource to anything.
The pay and the work itself is probably worse. But I’m just a sysadmin… Running dnf update and shooting the shit with the people around you is universal :^)
The pay and the work itself is probably worse. But I’m just a sysadmin… Running dnf update and shooting the shit with the people around you is universal :^)
Nothing to worry about. There is no AI revolution, just hype to raise stock prices. AI is the new blockchain.
If any one is scared of AI going to replace their jobs, its most likely they are doing work at a very shallow level.
If any one is scared of AI going to replace their jobs, its most likely they are doing work at a very shallow level.
FIRE - Financial Independence Retire Early.
Use your large software engineering salary to buy investments, then live off those investments. Own the companies that own the AI.
Use your large software engineering salary to buy investments, then live off those investments. Own the companies that own the AI.
Mine is to try and find physical work.
I hear there's going to be excellent job opportunities for guillotine sharpeners.
Let's wait until someone develops real AI and figure it out then.
I see a lot of fearmongering here, including AI labor doomsaying and some pushing for mercantilist luddite policies.
What the heck?
AI is just a new layer of automation, it's moving fast, yes, but it's still just another layer of technology that we as whole can take advantage of.
We won't stop hiring or working, we will just get much more for that same labor.
We are insanely lucky to live in our time.
What the heck?
AI is just a new layer of automation, it's moving fast, yes, but it's still just another layer of technology that we as whole can take advantage of.
We won't stop hiring or working, we will just get much more for that same labor.
We are insanely lucky to live in our time.
I worked hard to get good at my main skills (writing code, running servers) as well as secondary skills (designing graphics, making animated films, producing music, simulating physics, processing signals, CAD, math, etc.) at varying levels.
It's obvious that my entire spectrum of artistry is going to be replaced by AI, sooner or later.
People in my situation, what are your plans?
Others, what are your advice to people in my situation?