Ask HN: The future is not equally distributed
19 comments
I have a roof to sleep under and clean water to drink, along with food on the table every meal. The same cannot be said for tens of thousands of my countrymen, maybe more.
Forget AI. I'd be ecstatic if we could reliably provide 20th century basic household amenities for all.
Forget AI. I'd be ecstatic if we could reliably provide 20th century basic household amenities for all.
Self-driving taxis.
I'm in one of Waymo's service areas, so instead of calling a Lyft or Uber, I can call a Waymo self-driving car when I need a ride somewhere. It's througly boring, which is great. It has its ins and outs, so I don't user it every time, but it's just normal for me to get in a car with no driver and have it take me places.
I'm in one of Waymo's service areas, so instead of calling a Lyft or Uber, I can call a Waymo self-driving car when I need a ride somewhere. It's througly boring, which is great. It has its ins and outs, so I don't user it every time, but it's just normal for me to get in a car with no driver and have it take me places.
An amusing anecdote, in light of all these other comments. I've lived in downtown Dallas for about a decade now and am a frequent pedestrian. I run every morning and didn't have a car for nearly six years. So I see a lot of people who live on the street. I've seen entire tent cities come and go. One of the striking changes over the years is that people living on the street actually do have mobile phones and Internet access now. There are so many electrical outlets in public places that they can easily keep them charged and working and I'm guessing the devices and data plans are either subsidized, free to them, or just really cheap if you don't need latest and greatest.
This seemingly means they can access whatever web-based AI friend as a service thing your friend's daughter is using.
But indoor plumbing, running water, temperature control, clean food. A whole lot of people still don't have those things. Police protection is an underappreciated one. How often do you see people on Hacker News complaining that police won't investigate package theft or shoplifting or something? Imagine if they investigated no crimes at all. Live on the street and you can have everything you own stolen from you every day, get beaten, raped, even murdered, and no one will care or do anything about it. Your interaction with the police is them waking you up and telling you to move if you're sleeping somewhere a tourist might see you.
Civilization itself is less equally distributed than AI chat services.
This seemingly means they can access whatever web-based AI friend as a service thing your friend's daughter is using.
But indoor plumbing, running water, temperature control, clean food. A whole lot of people still don't have those things. Police protection is an underappreciated one. How often do you see people on Hacker News complaining that police won't investigate package theft or shoplifting or something? Imagine if they investigated no crimes at all. Live on the street and you can have everything you own stolen from you every day, get beaten, raped, even murdered, and no one will care or do anything about it. Your interaction with the police is them waking you up and telling you to move if you're sleeping somewhere a tourist might see you.
Civilization itself is less equally distributed than AI chat services.
Excellent post, thank you
Renewables deployment trajectory. Engineer abundance. Power will be ubiquitous and almost free globally in the next two decades.
https://newsroom.bloomenergy.com/blog/the-engineering-workfo...
https://archive.is/2024.06.24-223854/https://www.economist.c...
https://newsroom.bloomenergy.com/blog/the-engineering-workfo...
https://archive.is/2024.06.24-223854/https://www.economist.c...
I look to the past.
Back in the 70s, many of my relatives were farmers. Landlords came in with their tractors, had tremendous output with little labor. Rice prices dropped. Farmers could no longer make enough for a living so they sold their land. The landlords bought all the land, then they hired the farmers. As productivity increased, they fired the farmers. Many farmers ended up too poor to have children and their dynasty died out, forgotten. The rest survived by clearing land for plantations, which led to a caste of people who favor lifelong jobs, and tell their kids to work in factories or gov.
Many blame a specific ethnic group or the rich, but I blame tech. My grandfather was a rice tycoon. He had the tech. Tech made him rich. My father went to Harvard, did a MBA. He regretted not doing tech because the power was in the hands of the engineers. Back in the day, rich people gave money to the ones who could build and fix the tractors. Yesterday, it was cloud and apps. Tomorrow, it will be AI.
Some people think they can boycott, ignore, cancel tech. If they roll their eyes hard enough, it goes away. That's a kind of privilege, isn't it? Where you can tell them to stop, and then they stop. But I think those who have lived through industrialization are less optimistic.
Back in the 70s, many of my relatives were farmers. Landlords came in with their tractors, had tremendous output with little labor. Rice prices dropped. Farmers could no longer make enough for a living so they sold their land. The landlords bought all the land, then they hired the farmers. As productivity increased, they fired the farmers. Many farmers ended up too poor to have children and their dynasty died out, forgotten. The rest survived by clearing land for plantations, which led to a caste of people who favor lifelong jobs, and tell their kids to work in factories or gov.
Many blame a specific ethnic group or the rich, but I blame tech. My grandfather was a rice tycoon. He had the tech. Tech made him rich. My father went to Harvard, did a MBA. He regretted not doing tech because the power was in the hands of the engineers. Back in the day, rich people gave money to the ones who could build and fix the tractors. Yesterday, it was cloud and apps. Tomorrow, it will be AI.
Some people think they can boycott, ignore, cancel tech. If they roll their eyes hard enough, it goes away. That's a kind of privilege, isn't it? Where you can tell them to stop, and then they stop. But I think those who have lived through industrialization are less optimistic.
This is a non-answer in a way, because it's set in the past.
I think it might have been in the early '90s - certainly it was when mobile phones were new and faddish and the province of people with more money than sense. There was an earthquake in Thailand, and newspapers reported that survivors were calling for help from inside fallen buildings ON THEIR MOBILE PHONES. At the time I thought that was the most purely science-fictional real event I'd ever heard of.
These days, of course, I've got to stretch my mind to see why that should seem even slightly unusual.
I think it might have been in the early '90s - certainly it was when mobile phones were new and faddish and the province of people with more money than sense. There was an earthquake in Thailand, and newspapers reported that survivors were calling for help from inside fallen buildings ON THEIR MOBILE PHONES. At the time I thought that was the most purely science-fictional real event I'd ever heard of.
These days, of course, I've got to stretch my mind to see why that should seem even slightly unusual.
In real life nothing is ever “equally” distributed, what’s the point of the question, sorry I don’t get it?
I think OP is engaging with a remark (possibly[1]) from the futurist and writer William Gibson: "The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed".
[1] wording and attribution varies
[1] wording and attribution varies
Opposite: 250k households in the US do not have running water.
Thank you for this, eye opening - IMO it adds more weight to the quote (I misquoted). Found this:
"According to water accessibility nonprofit DigDeep, there are 2.2 million people in the U.S. without running water inside their homes—no sinks, bathtubs, or toilets. An additional 44 million Americans may have indoor plumbing, but their water systems have been in violation of the Safe Water Drinking Act."
"According to water accessibility nonprofit DigDeep, there are 2.2 million people in the U.S. without running water inside their homes—no sinks, bathtubs, or toilets. An additional 44 million Americans may have indoor plumbing, but their water systems have been in violation of the Safe Water Drinking Act."
GNU radio is simply amazing. Just connect components together and building a working VOR receiver was a pretty amazing experience.
The same is true of 3d printing, CNC machining, and the ability to get chips made.
The same is true of 3d printing, CNC machining, and the ability to get chips made.
Family, kids, friends.
It seems like in a lot of rich countries we are heading towards a major population shrinkage, to go with a solitude and isolation crisis.
It seems like in a lot of rich countries we are heading towards a major population shrinkage, to go with a solitude and isolation crisis.
The quote is from William Gibson. It goes well with Faulkner:
The past is never dead.
It’s not even past.
The empire never ended.
mkpp(2)
What have you seen recently, where you know you were seeing the future that other readers might not have experienced?