Working from home is here to stay(wolfstreet.com)
wolfstreet.com
Working from home is here to stay
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/10/there-hasnt-been-much-if-any-reduction-in-wfh-in-over-2-years-despite-all-the-hype-about-rto/
84 comments
100hr a week months on end. So 14 hour days 7 a week? 9am to 12am (assuming some kinda break). Every single day for 100 or so days. The fuck?
Add commute time... did it stink? Did people shower? Did they eat? Did anyone die?
Add commute time... did it stink? Did people shower? Did they eat? Did anyone die?
~16.5 * 6 days. Most of the time folks didn't work Sundays. One night I was so exhausted, I would park my car in a parking deck (at 3am I was the only car there), I managed to back my VW Golf into a massive pillar (just a bump, but still.)).
This was early on in my career - I'd already had 2 years of dev work under my belt. But most of the devs there, this was their first gig out of college. They didn't know this wasn't the norm I guess.
Yes the commute was awful (Boston). If I left for work before 6:15am I would get to the office in 15 minutes. After 6:15am, it was a 45 minute traffic jam.
They would feed us dinner. Nobody died. They had their own gym, and yes showers at work too. I quit after a few months. They laid everyone off 9 months later. I should have taken the hint right away when I saw they had private nap rooms with beds, alarm clocks and everything. Can't make this shit up. Loved my peers there, but the company (management consulting company trying to turn their "IP" into software) had a shit culture. Our managers were trying to make partner and didn't give a shit who they grinded into the ground to get it.
This was early on in my career - I'd already had 2 years of dev work under my belt. But most of the devs there, this was their first gig out of college. They didn't know this wasn't the norm I guess.
Yes the commute was awful (Boston). If I left for work before 6:15am I would get to the office in 15 minutes. After 6:15am, it was a 45 minute traffic jam.
They would feed us dinner. Nobody died. They had their own gym, and yes showers at work too. I quit after a few months. They laid everyone off 9 months later. I should have taken the hint right away when I saw they had private nap rooms with beds, alarm clocks and everything. Can't make this shit up. Loved my peers there, but the company (management consulting company trying to turn their "IP" into software) had a shit culture. Our managers were trying to make partner and didn't give a shit who they grinded into the ground to get it.
This sounds like a labour law horror story. I'm so happy now that I stayed on ordinary 40h/week work contract (no overtime) in the beginning of my career. Otherwise I'd end up with burnout and/or health issues pretty soon.
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Wait lotus sametime as in lotus 1-2-3?
I think WFH is good for some people but not good at all for others.
For example, I don't usually do well at all. I get distracted all the time, my brain doesn't seem to feel it's in work mode and so on.
I actually prefer to commute (I take the tube, read and listen to music; my brain is gradually turning on) and work from the office, have some chitchat, meet new colleagues, enjoy the snacks and beverages and then once I'm done I go home and the commute back is like a shutdown of my work brain.
To each his own I guess, I highly dislike polarising opinions (WFH is the best for everyone! or Everyone should be in the office all time!).
For example, I don't usually do well at all. I get distracted all the time, my brain doesn't seem to feel it's in work mode and so on.
I actually prefer to commute (I take the tube, read and listen to music; my brain is gradually turning on) and work from the office, have some chitchat, meet new colleagues, enjoy the snacks and beverages and then once I'm done I go home and the commute back is like a shutdown of my work brain.
To each his own I guess, I highly dislike polarising opinions (WFH is the best for everyone! or Everyone should be in the office all time!).
Yep, hybrid works best for me too.
Being at home 100% of the time works if I have perfectly clear tasks and deadlines. But as soon as there's something that requires collaboration with multiple people it's just SO MUCH EASIER to do it in person with everyone physically in the same room.
Zoom is good and all, but it's always janky the more people are in the meeting.
On site you can get more of the subtle hints off of people and the conversation flows better when you can talk over each other without the software deciding whose voice gets through.
Then you make the decisions you need and can hole up in your comfy home office for a while before needing to emerge again to collaborate.
Being at home 100% of the time works if I have perfectly clear tasks and deadlines. But as soon as there's something that requires collaboration with multiple people it's just SO MUCH EASIER to do it in person with everyone physically in the same room.
Zoom is good and all, but it's always janky the more people are in the meeting.
On site you can get more of the subtle hints off of people and the conversation flows better when you can talk over each other without the software deciding whose voice gets through.
Then you make the decisions you need and can hole up in your comfy home office for a while before needing to emerge again to collaborate.
> Zoom is good and all, but it's always janky the more people are in the meeting.
It's the little things, isn't it? Like when someone starts talking one second before you finish and you can't hear them, and then you ask them to repeat, and there's some lag, and you are not sure if they really said something or it was a glitch... Then you lose 20 seconds doing the "did you say something? No no, it was my cat passing by" and everyone lost focus.
It's the little things, isn't it? Like when someone starts talking one second before you finish and you can't hear them, and then you ask them to repeat, and there's some lag, and you are not sure if they really said something or it was a glitch... Then you lose 20 seconds doing the "did you say something? No no, it was my cat passing by" and everyone lost focus.
Or people on site talking with each other and not noticing the raised hand of someone online.
All this can be mitigated with processes, but it takes conscious work to keep it up.
All this can be mitigated with processes, but it takes conscious work to keep it up.
I think it's a platitude, but of course a "non-restricted hybrid" is the best choice, so when you want to work from home you just do, and when you prefer to go the office you go there.
Full remote is not for everyone. Full time office-based can be hard for parents or people living far away (or just suck if the office is noisy/messy).
Full remote is not for everyone. Full time office-based can be hard for parents or people living far away (or just suck if the office is noisy/messy).
That's how we work. We're officially a "remote-first" company, in that nobody is required to come into the office or work at specific times of day unless their work physically requires it. People still come in most days because we have nice big monitors and it's hard to get parts off the 3D printer remotely. (It still feels sci-fi as hell to be able to design a part and start printing it, all from the pub, though!)
Yeah I agree that hybrid is the way to go, different people have different needs and preferences and that is totally fine!
I agree with you. When I work at home I'm barely half as efficient, and I get depressed after a couple of days. My brain is just not wired for it.
This reads like it has been written by AI for someone who really wishes for an RTO.
Who the hell enjoys office snacks?
Who the hell enjoys office snacks?
Snacks are great. I work better when I have a little something to munch on. Free food unlocks something in our silly little primate brains I think.
Also my office often has great snacks. We also have a barista and that alone is worth it.
Also my office often has great snacks. We also have a barista and that alone is worth it.
I'm not an AI, my office (trading firm) has awesome snacks and drinks. I'm sorry that's not your case.
I'm going to make an argument centered around hygiene. Many people in this world have certain bathroom habits, but generally we believe a modern bathroom is probably the best place for us to handle things. Some people don't, some people find it perfectly fine to piss in a corner if they really need to out on the street. What are you gonna do?
We can easily show a lot of people why WFH is the correct way, but some people will ... you know, still enjoy a good piss on the street. It's like, something is wrong with them you know?
So we can't really consider the pissing on the street people's (in this case, the people that love the office) opinions too seriously. It's unhygienic.
RTO people are trying to make the world worse.
We can easily show a lot of people why WFH is the correct way, but some people will ... you know, still enjoy a good piss on the street. It's like, something is wrong with them you know?
So we can't really consider the pissing on the street people's (in this case, the people that love the office) opinions too seriously. It's unhygienic.
RTO people are trying to make the world worse.
> I'm going to make an argument centered around hygiene
Instant win in any discussion because nobody wants to be considered unhygienic, even if it makes zero measurable difference. Same as "security" because nobody wants to be blamed for a security incident, even if costs of potential incident are less than the costs of maintaining security solutions. Same as "return to office" because nobody wants to be blamed for negative consequences of WFH even if they're negligible.
Instant win in any discussion because nobody wants to be considered unhygienic, even if it makes zero measurable difference. Same as "security" because nobody wants to be blamed for a security incident, even if costs of potential incident are less than the costs of maintaining security solutions. Same as "return to office" because nobody wants to be blamed for negative consequences of WFH even if they're negligible.
My optimistic outlook? I think AI will eliminate waste in tech to the point where developers will launch their own businesses (we won’t need the waste of project managers, agile, administrative roles, etc). A new type of business owner will emerge and these types are WFH-minded first. This is the group that will elevate wFH permanently, since these developers will be part of the exodus from corporate America (leaving behind the culture of in-office work).
We just need the courage to keep crossing the Bering Strait.
We just need the courage to keep crossing the Bering Strait.
I think it is optimistic to assume the position of power or close to power (agile clergy, 'sales', middle management etc) are more disposable than programmers.
Their class loyalty is just way higher than the workers'.
Programmer coops are not really a thing. You wont get the deals.
Their class loyalty is just way higher than the workers'.
Programmer coops are not really a thing. You wont get the deals.
I’m not suggesting an evolution of the current machine, I’m suggesting an exodus.
Rebuild these apps without a single one of those bastards is what I’m saying. We could do it if wanted to. Rebuild GitHub, rebuild LinkedIn, rebuild Jira, without all the grifters.
Rebuild these apps without a single one of those bastards is what I’m saying. We could do it if wanted to. Rebuild GitHub, rebuild LinkedIn, rebuild Jira, without all the grifters.
Some people's pets will shit right at centre of office. Or in kitchen... Shit then gets smeared everywhere with paper towels!
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Working from home has increased my productivity tenfold. No idle chitchat, no wasted hours commuting, and full control over my environment. I’ve reached peak productivity, and there’s no compelling reason for me to return to the office.
Everyone is a different case. I know many people who work from home. Some sleep, watch sports, and post on HN during working hours.
I think you'll find those same people were wasting an equal amount of time in the work place as well. They just find other ways. I know one guy who was writing their novel at work, because it only requires a computer/is discrete.
I’m someone who finds it hard to stay productive at home but has no trouble focusing in the office.
Ala Atomic Habits, my home environment is set up to make my personal life easy. During the workday it’s way too easy to slip into leisure activities, while on personal time it’s easy to unwind. The office, on the other hand, is the opposite: it’s not full of things I enjoy doing, so distractions come with a lot more friction.
Working from home can be a net negative for some, even if it is a huge boost for many.
Ala Atomic Habits, my home environment is set up to make my personal life easy. During the workday it’s way too easy to slip into leisure activities, while on personal time it’s easy to unwind. The office, on the other hand, is the opposite: it’s not full of things I enjoy doing, so distractions come with a lot more friction.
Working from home can be a net negative for some, even if it is a huge boost for many.
It's the change of context.
Even before COVID and the standardisation of remote work I got my best work done when I just grabbed my laptop from the office and went to a pub or a cafe to work.
There's some actual science in there how changing the place where you work makes it ... different somehow and you can focus on what you need to do instead of falling into old habits based on the location.
Even before COVID and the standardisation of remote work I got my best work done when I just grabbed my laptop from the office and went to a pub or a cafe to work.
There's some actual science in there how changing the place where you work makes it ... different somehow and you can focus on what you need to do instead of falling into old habits based on the location.
That’s definitely a big factor, and I’ve noticed a similar pattern with cafes or other locations.
The office is just the most reliable “not at home” environment for getting work done for me—there’s no guilt about camping out all day, seating is always available, internet is reliable, and so on.
The office is just the most reliable “not at home” environment for getting work done for me—there’s no guilt about camping out all day, seating is always available, internet is reliable, and so on.
I have thought a lot about this and it is why I think remote is doomed long term at the mass market because of a type of scaling property.
I am much more productive working remote. It isn't even close.
The dysfunctional slacker at the office though can get some productivity squeezed out of them at the office. Remote, they are completely useless and dysfunctional.
Then take the average worker with kids who can save a ton of money by not sending the kid to daycare and the loss of productivity from that.
At some scale, the productivity increases do not make up for the productivity loss in aggregate. The more you scale up, the worse it gets.
Remote is only going to work long term for small organizations who won't be much effected by this scaling property.
I am much more productive working remote. It isn't even close.
The dysfunctional slacker at the office though can get some productivity squeezed out of them at the office. Remote, they are completely useless and dysfunctional.
Then take the average worker with kids who can save a ton of money by not sending the kid to daycare and the loss of productivity from that.
At some scale, the productivity increases do not make up for the productivity loss in aggregate. The more you scale up, the worse it gets.
Remote is only going to work long term for small organizations who won't be much effected by this scaling property.
> The dysfunctional slacker at the office though can get some productivity squeezed out of them at the office. Remote, they are completely useless and dysfunctional.
Honestly, I think part of the issue I see with this is "squeezing productivity" out of them. Almost every other manager I've spoken to would see this as a complete waste of their own time and would simply fire the slacker instead. I know that it's easier or harder in different companies/countries. Maybe it's a sign that the slackers are in HR? ;-)
Honestly, I think part of the issue I see with this is "squeezing productivity" out of them. Almost every other manager I've spoken to would see this as a complete waste of their own time and would simply fire the slacker instead. I know that it's easier or harder in different companies/countries. Maybe it's a sign that the slackers are in HR? ;-)
Primary way of wasting time is emails that become meetings because meetings really look like working.
Staring at a screen to figure out what to write in an email looks like slacking off, even though it has a much higher productivity than meetings.
Staring at a screen to figure out what to write in an email looks like slacking off, even though it has a much higher productivity than meetings.
Back in the 80s my dad worked at a factory as a chemist. He said one dude who worked the night shift had put a cot in a closet. He'd come in and sleep basically his entire shift so he'd be well rested for his day job.
Crazy. They almost certainly could lose the IP. Just shitpost. Or think about the novel and write at home.
One of the productivity boosts I’ve gotten from wfh is the ability to have a 35 minute nap in the afternoon. Amazing how much better my work is compared to the post coffee break work that was equivalent when I was in office.
Plenty of ways to waste time at the office as well.
The idle chit-chat, the wasted hours commuting (cycling rules), the lack of control are the essence of work life. WFH is largely like a chicken in a cage, just pooping out eggs without even being able to rotate.
> WFH is largely like a chicken in a cage, just pooping out eggs without even being able to rotate.
I think that chicken in a cage is much better metaphor for staying at the office than for WFH.
I think that chicken in a cage is much better metaphor for staying at the office than for WFH.
It's not about details of each environment, it's about how the parent comment focuses on maximizing productivity (number of eggs), while discarding everything else.
> the wasted hours commuting (cycling rules), the lack of control are the essence of work life.
Good riddance then.
Good riddance then.
- Finding a conference room that isn't taken
- People hanging around socializing loudly rather than working
- The unhygienic and jerk habits of previous users of hot desks
- Uncomfortable, unergonomic hot desks
- Pointless, wasteful, and expensive commute times and expense
- Inferior meals and snacks
- Contracting things from ill people who refuse to stay home
- Disruptions
- Superficial interactions
- People hanging around socializing loudly rather than working
- The unhygienic and jerk habits of previous users of hot desks
- Uncomfortable, unergonomic hot desks
- Pointless, wasteful, and expensive commute times and expense
- Inferior meals and snacks
- Contracting things from ill people who refuse to stay home
- Disruptions
- Superficial interactions
Let’s all 50 of us share the same bathroom by choice, even when we have the choice of a private bathroom.
Let’s make it so we all deprive ourselves of an hour of sleep each morning.
Let’s deprive ourselves of an hour when we get home too (the commute home).
Let’s not let families spend most of their time together, even when we have all the tools to do so.
Let’s deny ourselves the freedom to live in affordable parts of the country. No seriously, lets literally deny ourselves this and slave away on this hamster wheel stacked on top of each other in these god forsaken overpriced cities.
Let’s do this for 40 years.
And when offered a miracle to rectify all of this, let’s reject it. Let’s talk about how great the office is for some people. Who are these selfish maniacs?
Madness. There’s not enough poetry in the world to capture the madness.
Let’s make it so we all deprive ourselves of an hour of sleep each morning.
Let’s deprive ourselves of an hour when we get home too (the commute home).
Let’s not let families spend most of their time together, even when we have all the tools to do so.
Let’s deny ourselves the freedom to live in affordable parts of the country. No seriously, lets literally deny ourselves this and slave away on this hamster wheel stacked on top of each other in these god forsaken overpriced cities.
Let’s do this for 40 years.
And when offered a miracle to rectify all of this, let’s reject it. Let’s talk about how great the office is for some people. Who are these selfish maniacs?
Madness. There’s not enough poetry in the world to capture the madness.
Yeap. I forgot those and more. It's like some sort of culture of medieval hazing rituals that too many people have normalized and accepted that somehow "proves" their loyalty, dedication, and/or self-worth to a company that probably took out dead peasant insurance on them and continually weighs whether laying them off would be profitable.
> The media have jumped all over it with breathtaking headlines every time a company mandated a full five-days-a-week RTO... But those media reports may be giving the wrong impression, and in fact very little has changed since the beginning of 2023 in terms of actual office attendance and the percentage of full paid days worked from home
The core thesis of this, with data to back it up, is that there was a RTO push in the wake of COVID, but its stalled since 2023, and the amount of workers returning to office has been flat. The partial WFH or "hybrid" schedule is clearly shown in data, with huge variations in certain regions between different days.
> The average occupancy in the top 10 office markets in the latest week was still only at 54%... with Houston being at 65% at the top end and Philadelphia being at 44% at the bottom. The epicenter of WFH, San Francisco, was at 45% (chart from Kastle, click on the chart to enlarge it):
Which looks to be pretty constant for years based on their data. And, again, there is huge daily differences showing hybrid work is popular, but also not equally.
> The average occupancy on Fridays in January was 28% in San Francisco and 30% in New York City. Even at the high end, in Houston, it was only 48%.
The final bit of interesting data, which cements their thesis that WFH is here to stay.
> In January 2025, over 29% of all full paid days were worked from home, up a hair from the Januarys in 2023 and 2024.
> So the share of WFH has given up about half of the Covid spike (which peaked in June 2020 at 62%) and then got stuck at a share that is roughly four times higher than it had been in 2019 (7%).
The core thesis of this, with data to back it up, is that there was a RTO push in the wake of COVID, but its stalled since 2023, and the amount of workers returning to office has been flat. The partial WFH or "hybrid" schedule is clearly shown in data, with huge variations in certain regions between different days.
> The average occupancy in the top 10 office markets in the latest week was still only at 54%... with Houston being at 65% at the top end and Philadelphia being at 44% at the bottom. The epicenter of WFH, San Francisco, was at 45% (chart from Kastle, click on the chart to enlarge it):
Which looks to be pretty constant for years based on their data. And, again, there is huge daily differences showing hybrid work is popular, but also not equally.
> The average occupancy on Fridays in January was 28% in San Francisco and 30% in New York City. Even at the high end, in Houston, it was only 48%.
The final bit of interesting data, which cements their thesis that WFH is here to stay.
> In January 2025, over 29% of all full paid days were worked from home, up a hair from the Januarys in 2023 and 2024.
> So the share of WFH has given up about half of the Covid spike (which peaked in June 2020 at 62%) and then got stuck at a share that is roughly four times higher than it had been in 2019 (7%).
> here was a RTO push in the wake of COVID, but its stalled since 2023, and the amount of workers returning to office has been flat
Presumably because a lot of the push for full RTO was just a means for companies to implement layoffs without calling them what they were. Once the target was achieved, everything went back to business as usual, including WFH.
Presumably because a lot of the push for full RTO was just a means for companies to implement layoffs without calling them what they were. Once the target was achieved, everything went back to business as usual, including WFH.
"Kastle Back to Work Barometer"? Another company placing subtle suggestions that working from home is not really working? Of course, a provider of access control systems is also interested in keeping the office real estate sector healthy...
It's worth noting that it was a growing trend even before the pandemic and lockdowns only put the proverbial foot in the door for the general public.
I took my first remote role in 2015 and even back then it wasn't my only option. What's more interesting is that organisations which were remote first only doubled down on it after 2020, as e.g. cutting flights was a great way for them to save money.
All that being said both then and now promotions are more likely to be dispensed to those who show up.
I took my first remote role in 2015 and even back then it wasn't my only option. What's more interesting is that organisations which were remote first only doubled down on it after 2020, as e.g. cutting flights was a great way for them to save money.
All that being said both then and now promotions are more likely to be dispensed to those who show up.
I've been applying for tech jobs in Australia and what I've seen is almost all tech jobs are hybrid, with 2-3 mandatory days in office and the rest up to you. Have not encountered any 5 day mandatory jobs, and few 100% remote.
Which makes sense to me. In office is very much useful for collaboration, team building, etc. But you aren't doing that 5 days a week anyway.
Which makes sense to me. In office is very much useful for collaboration, team building, etc. But you aren't doing that 5 days a week anyway.
What's fascinating to me is how much everyone seems to have accepted the "per week" framing, which puts an implicit 20% lower bound on the ratio. In-office may be useful for some things, but I see very little thought given to how little of those things you actually need, what the optimum frequency is (rather than the overall amount), how clumping days in a row might affect things, or how those in-office days should be coordinated between teams.
My hunch is that team-building and the more social aspects need far less than justifies anything like once a week; and collaboration is always best done at point of need, not to a schedule, in my experience. That need might be week-long! That can happen! But to assume everyone's best served by some arbitrary ratio is patently absurd; so much so that I find it hard to take arguments for it in good faith.
I will acknowledge that new starters and juniors do need hand-holding, and in most companies that's hard to substitute out. The mechanisms for doing that face to face are well established. But I don't think that's impossible to migrate to a mostly remote experience.
My hunch is that team-building and the more social aspects need far less than justifies anything like once a week; and collaboration is always best done at point of need, not to a schedule, in my experience. That need might be week-long! That can happen! But to assume everyone's best served by some arbitrary ratio is patently absurd; so much so that I find it hard to take arguments for it in good faith.
I will acknowledge that new starters and juniors do need hand-holding, and in most companies that's hard to substitute out. The mechanisms for doing that face to face are well established. But I don't think that's impossible to migrate to a mostly remote experience.
If I had to do hybrid, I would MUCH rather 1 week per month than 1 day per week, even though it would technically be more time spent in the office. And I would much rather 3 months per year than 1 week per month, assuming corp subsidizes a hotel room like all business travel. Both of those alternative schedules allow me to move out of my employer's expensive location which to me is the number one selling point of remote work. 1 day per week means I still have to live there.
Personally I find 2-3 days pretty much right. If I ever need to talk to someone I just have to hold it for tomorrow and chat in person. But still allowing for flexibility for the random stuff you might have to do (doctors appointments, rental inspections, etc)
I interviewed for a UK company that said 5 days in-office was a hard requirement. I politely declined and the interview ended shortly thereafter!
Seems like a massive time waste for no benefit. I go to the office 1-2x a week and that's enough for me to meet my team members and collaborate. But any more than that is too much!
Seems like a massive time waste for no benefit. I go to the office 1-2x a week and that's enough for me to meet my team members and collaborate. But any more than that is too much!
I also have 2 mandatory days but they are completely useless. Due to the hotdesking I'm sitting next to people I have nothing to do with. On the same calls as i am doing at home because my entire team is in other countries.
We have a suggestion that teams decide which day to be at the office, but it's not enforced on a company level.
For my team we picked Mondays, so we can have our chats and meetings then and focus on work the rest of the week.
For my team we picked Mondays, so we can have our chats and meetings then and focus on work the rest of the week.
So RTO is just an excuse for layoffs, I guess?
It's an excuse for doing layoffs really badly. https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/the-data-is-in-return-to...
And such a transparent one at that. Companies closed offices and significantly reduced footprints in offices that stayed open. Now they're ordering employees to return to offices that do not exist anymore or that do not have enough workspaces for them.
It is a method of layoffs not an excuse for - they will fire 20% of people no matter what. It is as good if not better than the old way of doing things which was based on the picking teams in the playground and a dartboard.
It's all a huge game of chicken.
They're copying a technique from the minimum wage employer playbook, where you would lay people off, replace them with whoever (or no one at all) and rehire your original staff once they softened up while firing those new hires who proved problematic.
Of course companies don't do it in concert, so weirdly it's easy to both get hired and fired in this space, but net effect is that people keep getting paid minimum wage.
And therein lies the crux of the issue - our employers are pretty well synchronized in their layoffs so they're not worried that their projects will stall for a few months, as everyone else's will as well.
They're copying a technique from the minimum wage employer playbook, where you would lay people off, replace them with whoever (or no one at all) and rehire your original staff once they softened up while firing those new hires who proved problematic.
Of course companies don't do it in concert, so weirdly it's easy to both get hired and fired in this space, but net effect is that people keep getting paid minimum wage.
And therein lies the crux of the issue - our employers are pretty well synchronized in their layoffs so they're not worried that their projects will stall for a few months, as everyone else's will as well.
> they're not worried that their projects will stall for a few months, as everyone else's will as well
In a competitive market, there would be defection from any layoff cartels, to gain market share.
If the employer has a monopoly, they are mostly competing with themself.
In a competitive market, there would be defection from any layoff cartels, to gain market share.
If the employer has a monopoly, they are mostly competing with themself.
More avenues to market failure than a cartel or a monopoly.
Here it seems that the moment LLMs hit the market in earnest, every C-level started asking themselves if they have the manpower to compete in this space and ultimately reached the conclusion that no, they don't, so they started doing layoffs, (correctly) assuming that everyone would have the same strategy.
We will all be rehired eventually, but the perception of our value vs that of AI is lower and that is reinforced by the number of people currently looking for a role.
In a sense the press was right - developers were replaced with AI - at least temporarily.
Funny thing is this happened to a project I was in back in 2017. The company figured that instead of building a huge system using a team of 40+ people they'll... use Watson.
Here it seems that the moment LLMs hit the market in earnest, every C-level started asking themselves if they have the manpower to compete in this space and ultimately reached the conclusion that no, they don't, so they started doing layoffs, (correctly) assuming that everyone would have the same strategy.
We will all be rehired eventually, but the perception of our value vs that of AI is lower and that is reinforced by the number of people currently looking for a role.
In a sense the press was right - developers were replaced with AI - at least temporarily.
Funny thing is this happened to a project I was in back in 2017. The company figured that instead of building a huge system using a team of 40+ people they'll... use Watson.
There was also the Section 174 US tax law changes for 5-year amortization of R&D and software dev salaries, which started in 2022. Presumably the rolling deductions means that by 2027, companies would have an aggregate deduction approximating the pre-2022 status quo.
That could mean 2 more years of LLM CapEx running air cover for engineer labor OpEx tax policy, which ironically puts humans and servers/GPUs/robots/AI on a comparable depreciation schedule. Meanwhile, an LLM subscription would be immediately deductible, while the developer's salary would require 5 years, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34627712
That could mean 2 more years of LLM CapEx running air cover for engineer labor OpEx tax policy, which ironically puts humans and servers/GPUs/robots/AI on a comparable depreciation schedule. Meanwhile, an LLM subscription would be immediately deductible, while the developer's salary would require 5 years, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34627712
Hah, you're right - I completely forgot about section 174.
Hybrid 3/2 schedules seem to be the landing point for most companies. I personally prefer to work at my office 4-5 days because it's basically my dream job and I have a real office with a kitchen area on the floor and no distractions. If I was back in a cube farm there is no way I'd want to RTO. The issue where I work is the mix of full remote and forced hybrid, even among the same roles. It's the ambiguous application of policy that is hated the most.
A lot of RTO push is subjective and allows for manager override, at least from what I have seen, I also sense where this is the case managers more lenient on giving overrides and whilst it's all being tracked senior management OK with it for now. This is all conjecture but this data might back it.
If people are ok with "live and let live", yes. If not, there will be a lot of bickering ("why did they get an exception and me not?!"). Or senior management will be unhappy with their metrics ("we said three days in the office, and the average is just 2,78? Not acceptable!") - so rules might get tightened, as in my employer's case. Which also has the (in management's opinion, beneficial) side effect of getting rid of some of those pesky "troublemakers" who insist on having more home office than management wants them to have, without a severance package.
"The Office" that existed before COVID no longer exists. It's impossible to return to it.
Albeit open-plan, relatively quiet has been replaced with just a bunch of people on teams/zoom calls talking loudly, whilst the constraint to meetings that physical meeting rooms provided has disappeared.
Albeit open-plan, relatively quiet has been replaced with just a bunch of people on teams/zoom calls talking loudly, whilst the constraint to meetings that physical meeting rooms provided has disappeared.
I first joined the corporate world in 2018. (previously, I worked in government) I was absolutely shocked by my first job; the open office was incredibly loud, and we'd get on Zoom calls while sitting next to each other in the open room. I wouldn't be able to talk correctly as my own voice would play itself back to me from my coworker's mic. There was so much cross-talk and noise I could barely get any work done. We had a couple offices at this company, and one was somewhat near an outdoor diesel generator, which would flood the office with diesel fumes when it ran weekly for maintenance.
I have no idea what the hell the business owners were thinking, but working there was one of my worst jobs I've ever had.
I have no idea what the hell the business owners were thinking, but working there was one of my worst jobs I've ever had.
or everything is fake until 7% unemployment and then youll take the job and go to work like normal
Working in the office is fine if the commute isn't too long and there's actually something to do. When I had a lot of work on my hands time flew by, when there wasn't anything to do it felt like a black hole popped up somewhere close.
Good if it does. But here's London mayor calling for RTO: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj3ep20drr0o.
In tech there is probably also a shift to consulting work that might be contributing to increased WFH, though I’ve not seen any studies on this.
I have severe allergies to animals saliva, hair and dander. I have to carry Epipen, I almost suffocated a few times! Yet pets are allowed in office!
Coworkers just do not care, and are happy to put my life at risk! Their pets are "hypoallergenic" and usual BS. I am evil, for not wanting to lick their pets!
Final insult is we are not allowed anything with traces of peanuts. One person has a peanut allergy and they could accidentally eat my lunch!
Office is BS!
Coworkers just do not care, and are happy to put my life at risk! Their pets are "hypoallergenic" and usual BS. I am evil, for not wanting to lick their pets!
Final insult is we are not allowed anything with traces of peanuts. One person has a peanut allergy and they could accidentally eat my lunch!
Office is BS!
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After that job I spent a couple of years working in offices. It was absolutely helpful in some ways (I worked and learned from smarter people (MIT, Dartmouth grads, etc) and less productive in others (employer tried to work us 100+ hours per week for months on end). Looking at the code you wrote at 3am the next morning and wondering what the hell you all were thinking (pair programming) was eye-opening.
I am so much more productive at home and more importantly I'm happier. Sure, it's nice to see people I work with a few times per year. But the fact is we're distributed all over the country (and the world for that matter). My neighbor works at IBM. She's been forced back to the office where she spends her day on Zoom calls. It's madness.
Shame on companies who use RTO and AI to disguise layoffs. Fuck these companies. Man-up and just say you want to save money.