How good are social scientists at forecasting?(nber.org)

4 pointsby oatsandsugarvor 8 Monaten1 comments

How good are social scientists at forecasting?

https://www.nber.org/papers/w34493

1 comments

[This paper] show[s] that forecasters, on average, over-estimate treatment effects; however, the average forecast is quite predictive of the actual treatment effect.