Ask HN: What are your odds that "we are not alone" is confirmed this year?
HN prediction market, table your bets.
17 comments
Zero. We cannot possibly be alone, but confirmation depends upon our ability to imagine the unimaginable.
Life, yes. Intelligent life, yes. Intelligent life whose manifestations we can recognize, no.
Life, yes. Intelligent life, yes. Intelligent life whose manifestations we can recognize, no.
Excellent point and intellectually honest. There’s no guarantee that EXO intelligence would be anything we could fathom.
That said we could probably recognize it via traces and I’m sure we’re about to confirm it’s existence.
That said we could probably recognize it via traces and I’m sure we’re about to confirm it’s existence.
0% - assuming you're referring to intelligent alien species
Yes, and noted with thanks.
You're welcome. I see you're more optimistic :-)
I will add that "not alone" also implies we are able to be aware of "them" as they currently are, not billions of years ago.
Put differently, if we discover signs of a civilization OR even traces of something akin to life, but we cannot validate they still exist, we are still alone.
I will add that "not alone" also implies we are able to be aware of "them" as they currently are, not billions of years ago.
Put differently, if we discover signs of a civilization OR even traces of something akin to life, but we cannot validate they still exist, we are still alone.
Fair enough and that’s an interesting situation nonetheless.
In some ways emotionally, I’d prefer the archaeological previous advanced civilization discovery that both confirms: We’re not alone in the extent of time, but we don’t really have anything else to consider in the present, so we can study and learn from something static.
Though I feel, optimistically, I guess, that the reality is more dynamic than that.
In some ways emotionally, I’d prefer the archaeological previous advanced civilization discovery that both confirms: We’re not alone in the extent of time, but we don’t really have anything else to consider in the present, so we can study and learn from something static.
Though I feel, optimistically, I guess, that the reality is more dynamic than that.
that said a dynamic present is pretty fucking interesting and exciting. If it’s all dead, it’s kind of sad and forboding for us as this civilization.
But if there’s others out there now that’s so cool and imagine the opportunities for learning interaction and trade science spirituality society it’s just such a cool idea.
But if there’s others out there now that’s so cool and imagine the opportunities for learning interaction and trade science spirituality society it’s just such a cool idea.
Infinitesimally close to zero.
Discard as Chinese propaganda.
Discard what? My opinion?
Yep
lol! What a bizarre reaction. I didn't see that one coming.
Glad you’ve seen something strange
0.5%
Respectably non-zero. 1 in 200. I think I'm at 1 in 30 rationally. But 61.8% emotionally. Intuitively, I'd say 86-87%.