Ask HN: Will GPU and RAM prices ever go down?
A good graphics card costs a lot ever since the cryptomining fever, and RAM is a more recent case. Assembling a gaming or a "local AI" PC is practically out of question today given the budget needed - prices just don't sound reasonable, regardless of whether affordable or not. What's your take - are living in this world from now on, or will it revert, and why?
5 comments
> What's your take - are living in this world from now on, or will it revert, and why?
I expect it will revert, but what I cannot predict is when the reversion will occur.
Why:
1) Eventually another "AI Winter" [1] is going to occur (again, no way to predict when). But the current hype cycle and endless money burn with no visible path to profitability is going to catch up to all of the AI's and an AI Winter will occur. When that happens, the AI demand for RAM/GPU's will crater (and, as well, some portion of the existing purchases will be sold off at bankruptcy discounts). Both will result in a reversion in pricing when the winter arrives.
2) The current extreme pricing will also encourage one or both of:
2a) existing players to ramp up their production capacity to meet the demand; (this will be sluggish, but as they begin to ramp up their capacity, the result will be a softening of prices)
2b) the high prices may encourage other players to enter the production market to capture some of the current profits, this will also soften pricing;
Once the current demand spike calms down (and it will calm down) both 2a and 2b will lead to a reversion in pricing.
What I can't tell you is how long we may have to wait for the reversion. It is coming, sometime in the future, but how long we have to suffer the current extreme pricing before it arrives we can't predict.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ai_winter
I expect it will revert, but what I cannot predict is when the reversion will occur.
Why:
1) Eventually another "AI Winter" [1] is going to occur (again, no way to predict when). But the current hype cycle and endless money burn with no visible path to profitability is going to catch up to all of the AI's and an AI Winter will occur. When that happens, the AI demand for RAM/GPU's will crater (and, as well, some portion of the existing purchases will be sold off at bankruptcy discounts). Both will result in a reversion in pricing when the winter arrives.
2) The current extreme pricing will also encourage one or both of:
2a) existing players to ramp up their production capacity to meet the demand; (this will be sluggish, but as they begin to ramp up their capacity, the result will be a softening of prices)
2b) the high prices may encourage other players to enter the production market to capture some of the current profits, this will also soften pricing;
Once the current demand spike calms down (and it will calm down) both 2a and 2b will lead to a reversion in pricing.
What I can't tell you is how long we may have to wait for the reversion. It is coming, sometime in the future, but how long we have to suffer the current extreme pricing before it arrives we can't predict.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ai_winter
Micron is building a bunch of new fabs in the US right now- two in Idaho, two in New York, and modernizing one existing fab in Virginia. The first Idaho fab will come online in 2027 and NY/Virginia fabs in 2030.
https://www.micron.com/us-expansion
So, more chips coming soon, but who knows if that's enough to keep up with demand for the next few years.
https://www.micron.com/us-expansion
So, more chips coming soon, but who knows if that's enough to keep up with demand for the next few years.
Moreover openai (i.e. chatgpt) is facing a tricky financial situation. Openai's sources of income pertain to profitability from investors and API/subscription business model. Supposedly they are losing on every subscriber. And the reason why it held up is because there was a lot of hope generated causing investors to overinvest.
With the past investments of Nvidia into openai, the business model held up. Lately, AMD has caught up enough in AI efficiency that openai decided to built an entire stack of servers in AMD. openai's boyfriend i.e Nvidia did not like that and with Nvidia unable to guarantee return of investments via sales of it's cards to openai, Jensen Huang i.e. CEO of Nvidia is backing off from investing 100B$ simultaneously tanking a -6% of stock in a week.
With the past investments of Nvidia into openai, the business model held up. Lately, AMD has caught up enough in AI efficiency that openai decided to built an entire stack of servers in AMD. openai's boyfriend i.e Nvidia did not like that and with Nvidia unable to guarantee return of investments via sales of it's cards to openai, Jensen Huang i.e. CEO of Nvidia is backing off from investing 100B$ simultaneously tanking a -6% of stock in a week.
And yes ram prices will go down, but a price crash is most probably gonna last a single day.
Pricess will 'crash' some 20 percent over the next year or two, but they will not go back to where they were in my estimate.
DDR6 will be bigger and better but not cheaper.
DDR6 will be bigger and better but not cheaper.