Ask HN: Tactical/military reasons for difficulty unblocking the Hormuz Straits?
Naively couldn’t you have a convoy with a mine sweeper at the front. Hundreds of tankers in a line and then guard ships/aircraft on the sides? What weapons/tactics does Iran have that work well etc?
6 comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRImYairm1A
There is not a good way to "guard ships on the sides" against hundreds of Shahed drones or small seaborne drones.
They would overwhelm any defenses and only a few would need to get through to destroy a tanker.
If multiple tankers are together in a line the risk becomes greater: more targets for the drones to hit and any fires or explosions on one tanker might spread to other tankers.
There is not a good way to "guard ships on the sides" against hundreds of Shahed drones or small seaborne drones.
They would overwhelm any defenses and only a few would need to get through to destroy a tanker.
If multiple tankers are together in a line the risk becomes greater: more targets for the drones to hit and any fires or explosions on one tanker might spread to other tankers.
Over an area even that size, the resources needed to plant mines, or more importantly attack with drones, are miniscule compared to the resources needed to defeat them, especially when 100% success is needed. This means it doesn't take much to do more than US Navy can counter.
For a really good explanation of current events involving shipping, check out What's Going On With Shipping: https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping
For a really good explanation of current events involving shipping, check out What's Going On With Shipping: https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping
If it is swarms of drones thats the risk. Couldn’t we have defensive drone swarms? Isn’t anduril working on drone submarine? Just trying to understand how we can tactically defeat this problem since politics doesn’t seem to be a solution here.
Or you know, Trump can just pull out. It was open before all this nonsense.
One could conceivably run convoys, but the underlying issue is risk and business loss. (1) Cannot get insurance and even if they did (2) losing a ship is years of lost work because getting a replacement takes a long time
I mean, set aside the military/tactics aspect for a second. The Strait was open during the ceasefire, America's blockade is what incentivized Iran to close it again. The motivation to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed right now is a political incentive to cut off Iran's exports to China, stunting their ability to import weapons and incentivizing Iran's normal customers to import American or Russian oil.
Militarily speaking, shipping is something that's ideally a zero-risk operation. Choke points like the Strait are so dangerous because you can ratchet up the risk however you want. The optics at the beginning of the war was that Iran's Navy had been decimated and traffic threat would be negligible - as time goes on, Iran's Naval forces have effectively demonstrated that the risk to shipping is fairly credible.
The tactics the IRGC has used most effectively are small, light attack watercraft that can be hidden and deployed from austere shorelines, as well as Shahed waves from their substantial stockpile of drones. The US Navy could defend these strikes at a significant cost to taxpayers, but it's possible Iran would escalate with suicide UGVs similar to how Ukraine has attacked Russia's Navy with the Sea Baby/MAGURA drone. Military escorts would get extremely expensive and waste a lot of America's AEGIS missile magazine depth.
Militarily speaking, shipping is something that's ideally a zero-risk operation. Choke points like the Strait are so dangerous because you can ratchet up the risk however you want. The optics at the beginning of the war was that Iran's Navy had been decimated and traffic threat would be negligible - as time goes on, Iran's Naval forces have effectively demonstrated that the risk to shipping is fairly credible.
The tactics the IRGC has used most effectively are small, light attack watercraft that can be hidden and deployed from austere shorelines, as well as Shahed waves from their substantial stockpile of drones. The US Navy could defend these strikes at a significant cost to taxpayers, but it's possible Iran would escalate with suicide UGVs similar to how Ukraine has attacked Russia's Navy with the Sea Baby/MAGURA drone. Military escorts would get extremely expensive and waste a lot of America's AEGIS missile magazine depth.