We discuss this somewhat in the post - the line at which you say something "works" is arbitrary. We explore how the choice of definition changes the stat.
We think even if AGI is only invented in 50 years, then it's still worth doing some work on the control problem today, so our view isn't that dependent on whether we're currently in an AI investment bubble or not.
However, if you did really believe the hype, and think that ML will lead to major breakthroughs in the next decade or so, then that would make it even more urgent.
We're going to work on the causes that we think our most pressing, so to be consistent, we're going to end up recommending the same things we work on.
At 80,000 Hours, our focus is also not on giving money. We're trying to help people find jobs in these areas, often in academia or policy and many other sectors.
We're a fan of CCC - they're one of the main resources we've drawn upon, and we agree with many of these recommendations under the heading of global health.
However, they focus on what will most help the global poor in the near term. We're interested in considering the full range of issues, especially those that are important from the perspective of the long-term future (for reasons explained in the article).
Our estimate of the mean is still 400-900k, whereas the mean in sports/arts/entertainment is only about $70k.
https://80000hours.org/articles/highest-paying-jobs/
Even the junior roles in trading are higher paid than this.
You're right that you also need to account for the chance of dropping out of the role all together, which is hard. (Though drop out rates are high in both sports and finance.)
I totally agree you can't easily use these figures as your expected earnings, since you need to adjust for the chance of drop out. (And also future industry prospects and many other factors.) Also agree about quant funds being different.
By "portfolio manager" I (the author) just mean the more senior person who oversees trading. It seems like a couple of different titles get used.
We don't mean portfolio management in the sense of advising individuals on what to do with their portfolio, which is what some investment banks use. That's a totally different job.
Like I say, this article is only based on a couple of interviews, and we still have a lot to clear. I'd be keen to get more data.
I agree it would be good to go more fine grained in the categories though.