> Al-Hussainy expects investors to turn to even more aggressive positioning for rate cuts. He says the signal from the curve suggests money markets should be pricing in a higher probability of the Fed’s policy rate going to zero in the coming year.
Not just zero, but beyond.
The yield out to 30 years on German bonds recently fell below zero. Several other advanced industrial countries are in a similar negative-yielding boat. These are economies that are technically not even in recession.
The amount of negative yielding debt now exceeds $13 trillion:
That's not a negative real rate (rate - inflation) which is not uncommon, it's an absolute (nominal) interest rate.
No country wants to be left with the currency that appreciates. All countries will pull out the stops to find a way to devalue.
The only thing industrialized countries fear more than an appreciating currency is deflation. The first whiff of that monster and the big guns come out and never stop firing.
At this point it's not unreasonable to expect the following possibilities (in order of first appearance):
0. zero short term rates to follow much quicker than consensus
1. shock-and-awe QE (first implemented, but in a way that will look quaint by comparison, in 2008-2009 crisis)
2. direct purchase of stocks by the Fed and the ECB (Bank of Japan has been doing this for a long time)
3. debt forgiveness for college loans (regardless of the party in power)
4. debt forgiveness for mortgages (discussed in 2008-2009 but never tried)
5. credit card debt forgiveness (because why not, every other debt is being forgiven)
Oddly enough, the later phases start to look like the systemic debt repudiation brought about through the "jubilee year":
> Ancient Near Eastern societies regularly declared noncommercial debts void, typically at the coronation of a new king or at the king’s order.
Really well done and I like the brevity. Here are some ideas for revising the code:
1. There are two functions called "distance" and they're identical. Only the outermost appears to be needed.
2. As written, the game places variable and function names into the global scope. It doesn't matter for this game, but will be a problem for larger games. One idea would be to use the Immediately Invoked Function Expression (IIFE) pattern [1]. Another would be to take advantage of ES6 modules[2] (<script type="module">) to limit variable scope.
Not just zero, but beyond.
The yield out to 30 years on German bonds recently fell below zero. Several other advanced industrial countries are in a similar negative-yielding boat. These are economies that are technically not even in recession.
The amount of negative yielding debt now exceeds $13 trillion:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/value-of-debt-with-negativ...
That's not a negative real rate (rate - inflation) which is not uncommon, it's an absolute (nominal) interest rate.
No country wants to be left with the currency that appreciates. All countries will pull out the stops to find a way to devalue.
The only thing industrialized countries fear more than an appreciating currency is deflation. The first whiff of that monster and the big guns come out and never stop firing.
At this point it's not unreasonable to expect the following possibilities (in order of first appearance):
0. zero short term rates to follow much quicker than consensus
1. shock-and-awe QE (first implemented, but in a way that will look quaint by comparison, in 2008-2009 crisis)
2. direct purchase of stocks by the Fed and the ECB (Bank of Japan has been doing this for a long time)
3. debt forgiveness for college loans (regardless of the party in power)
4. debt forgiveness for mortgages (discussed in 2008-2009 but never tried)
5. credit card debt forgiveness (because why not, every other debt is being forgiven)
Oddly enough, the later phases start to look like the systemic debt repudiation brought about through the "jubilee year":
> Ancient Near Eastern societies regularly declared noncommercial debts void, typically at the coronation of a new king or at the king’s order.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jubilee_(biblical)