HackerTrans
TopNewTrendsCommentsPastAskShowJobs

bubblelicious

no profile record

comments

bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
I think you’re welcome to that opinion and are far from alone but (1) I am very happy to pay for Claude, even $200/mo is worth it and (2) idk if people just sort of lose track or what of how far things have come in the span of literally a single year, with the knowledge that training infra is growing insanely and people are solving on fundamental problem after another.
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
I disagree, you have to take yourself back to when electricity was not widely available. How much labor did electricity eliminate? A LOT I imagine.

AI will make a lot of things obsolete but I think that is just the inherent nature of such a disruptive technology.

It makes labor cost way lower for many things. But how the economy reorganizes itself around it seems unclear but I don’t really share this fear of the world imploding. How could cheap labor be bad?

Robotics for physical labor lag way behind e.g. coding but only because we haven’t mastered how to figure out the data flywheel and/or transfer knowledge sufficiently and efficiently (though people are trying).
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
Epoch has a pretty good analysis of bottlenecks here:

https://epoch.ai/blog/can-ai-scaling-continue-through-2030

There is plenty of data left, we don’t just train with crawled text data. Power constraints may turn out to be the real bottleneck but we’re like 4 orders of magnitude away
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
Show me a paper, this makes no sense of course scaling laws are scaling
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
Sounds like someone has no knowledge of the literature, synthetic data isn’t like asking ChatGPT to give you a bunch of fake internet data.
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
Right let’s not have done the Industrial Revolution or the Internet or electricity
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
This based on any non anecdotal evidence by chance?
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
And you don’t think that’s already happening? Also where is your evidence for this?
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
Why do people think this is any different than other major economic revolutions like electricity or the Industrial Revolution? Society is not going to collapse, things will just get weirder in both unbelievably positive ways and then also unbelievably negative ways, like the internet.
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
Where does this view come from? I’m not aware of any real evidence for this. Also consider our data center buildouts in 26 and 27 will be absolutely extraordinary, and scaling is only at the beginning. You have a growing flywheel and plenty of synthetic data to break the data wall
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
Are you talking about just preferences or A/B tests on like retention and engagement? The latter I think is pretty reliable and powerful though I have never personally done them. Preferences are just as big a mess: WHO the annotators are matters, and if you are using preferences as a proxy for like correctness, you’re not really measuring correctness you’re measuring e.g. persuasion. A lot of construct validity challenges (which themselves are hard to even measure in domain).
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
I work on LLM benchmarks and human evals for a living in a research lab (as opposed to product). I can say: it’s pretty much the Wild West and a total disaster. No one really has a good solution, and researchers are also in a huge rush and don’t want to end up making their whole job benchmarking. Even if you could, and even if you have the right background you can do benchmarks full time and they still would be a mess.

Product testing (with traditional A/B tests) are kind of the best bet since you can measure what you care about _directly_ and at scale.

I would say there is of course “benchmarketing” but generally people do sincerely want to make good benchmarks it’s just hard or impossible. For many of these problems we’re hitting capabilities where we don’t even have a decent paradigm to use,
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
I’m not really sure how you envision AI use at your job but AI can be the extremely imperfect tool it is now and also be extremely useful. What part of AI use to you feels like a slot machine?
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
It just totally is different from my own personal experience which leads me to believe people just are lamenting poor usage of AI tools which is very understandable.

But nuanced and effective AI use, even today with current models, is incredible for productivity in my experience
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
I think that’s perfectly fair.

However, if you were leadership in this scenario, and you see people using various AI tools are systematically more productive then the people that aren’t, what would you do?
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
What do you mean?
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
Can you be more specific? What are the trivial cases you’re talking about? AI just doesn’t work? Coding agents are not saving anyone any time?
bubblelicious
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
What’s the controversy, unless people are straw manning or pulling from some bad personal experience?

If you are not leveraging the best existing tools for your job (and understanding their limitations) then your output will be lower than it should be and company leadership should care about that.

Claude reduces my delivery time at my job like 50%, not to mention things that get done that would never have been attempted before. LLMs do an excellent job seeding literature reviews and summarizing papers. Would be a pretty bad move for someone in my position to not use AI, and would be pretty unreasonable of leadership not to recognize this.
bubblelicious
·vor 9 Monaten·discuss
Great take! Certainly resonates with me a lot

- this is war path funding

- this is geopolitics; and it’s arguably a rational and responsible play

- we should expect to see more nationalization

- whatever is at the other end of this seems like it will be extreme

And, the only way out is through
bubblelicious
·vor 9 Monaten·discuss
It’s more like people pretend it’s “obvious” that the market is going to do something or that AI developments are not going to support the spend, it’s just not obvious to me. I think people overweight probability on a bubble. Saying it’s “clearly a bubble” is hubris.