Does the Drake equation model the universe to provide any real insight into the Fermi Paradox? Even if it does, only a few factors have enough data points to allow the ranges in the learned SDO analysis to strongly illuminate the question, “Where’s ET?”
We slowly make empirical progress on the ranges. For one thing, we now know how many stars in the immediate neighborhood have planets: the vast majority. We now know that the prospects for water/organic based “life” look pretty good in our neighborhood: there are in the range of half a dozen prospects in our solar system. We might nail that one down a bit more within a few decades. We just need one hit on Enceladus, Europa, or Mars.
Until contact is confirmed, it seems the question comes down to two big problems:
(1) It took 3-4 billion years for life on earth to evolve from first replicating molecules to “intelligent life.” Our species is ≈ 200,000 years old. That represents 1/23000th the age of the earth.
(2) We have had “radio” (radiotelegraphy) for a little more than one century. That represents 1/46 millionth the life of the planet.
Assuming humans survive for quite a while longer, what are the chances that another species—say, within 1000 light years of us—will be using “radio” (EM communication) at the same time? Even if our two species each survive a million years, the chances we appear at the same time are slim. A million years represents 1/4600th the life of our planet.
On a positive note, there are in the range of 16 million stars within 1000 light years of earth.
The Fermi Paradox presumes much: intelligent life is destined to evolve on suitable planets; intelligent life survives the filters (my doomsday money is on human pollution, ye olde shite problem); EM communication or star travel is a logical outcome of intelligent life. All of these seem a bit dubious to my limited mind.
On the other hand, almost by definition, a starship is immortal. If humans ever achieve a viable industrial infrastructure, at say, Jupiter, we will have already overcome many of the obstacles of traveling to Alpha Centuri. A self-contained, self-repairing, self-propulsing “vehicle” has to avoid collision, of course.
Here, my money bets first contact will be, or has been with machines.
We slowly make empirical progress on the ranges. For one thing, we now know how many stars in the immediate neighborhood have planets: the vast majority. We now know that the prospects for water/organic based “life” look pretty good in our neighborhood: there are in the range of half a dozen prospects in our solar system. We might nail that one down a bit more within a few decades. We just need one hit on Enceladus, Europa, or Mars.
Until contact is confirmed, it seems the question comes down to two big problems: (1) It took 3-4 billion years for life on earth to evolve from first replicating molecules to “intelligent life.” Our species is ≈ 200,000 years old. That represents 1/23000th the age of the earth.
(2) We have had “radio” (radiotelegraphy) for a little more than one century. That represents 1/46 millionth the life of the planet.
Assuming humans survive for quite a while longer, what are the chances that another species—say, within 1000 light years of us—will be using “radio” (EM communication) at the same time? Even if our two species each survive a million years, the chances we appear at the same time are slim. A million years represents 1/4600th the life of our planet.
On a positive note, there are in the range of 16 million stars within 1000 light years of earth.
The Fermi Paradox presumes much: intelligent life is destined to evolve on suitable planets; intelligent life survives the filters (my doomsday money is on human pollution, ye olde shite problem); EM communication or star travel is a logical outcome of intelligent life. All of these seem a bit dubious to my limited mind.
On the other hand, almost by definition, a starship is immortal. If humans ever achieve a viable industrial infrastructure, at say, Jupiter, we will have already overcome many of the obstacles of traveling to Alpha Centuri. A self-contained, self-repairing, self-propulsing “vehicle” has to avoid collision, of course.
Here, my money bets first contact will be, or has been with machines.