No, we don't know that either. For all we know, we could have BQP = P: today, we don't know any algorithm in P to factor integers, but that's not a proof that it doesn't exist. If we had such a proof, as mcpherrinm points out this would directly lead to a proof that P != NP (since we DO know that factoring is in NP).
Also, I don't mean to pile on, but this wasn't what you were trying to say in the paragraph I quoted: in that paragraph, you said that we just had to pick problems outside BQP to make cryptography work despite quantum computers. I don't know if that's what you had in mind, but for such an algorithm to be tractable, it should at least be in NP (nobody with a deterministic computer wants to spend an exponential amount of time establishing an SSL connection): so the mathematical statement is whether NP \ BQP is non-empty. Did I miss something?
However a quantum machine that would be capable of post-selection is described by the more powerful class PostBQP = PP, and we know that PP includes NP, so this justifies your analogy.
I don't know much about quantum physics or quantum computing, so I may be mistaken, but it seems to me that post-selection is more of a philosophical construct than something that is physically possible, though.
Also, I don't mean to pile on, but this wasn't what you were trying to say in the paragraph I quoted: in that paragraph, you said that we just had to pick problems outside BQP to make cryptography work despite quantum computers. I don't know if that's what you had in mind, but for such an algorithm to be tractable, it should at least be in NP (nobody with a deterministic computer wants to spend an exponential amount of time establishing an SSL connection): so the mathematical statement is whether NP \ BQP is non-empty. Did I miss something?