However, I didn't state a statistical fact, or assert the effect of guns on the amount of criminality.
"Widespread gun ownership significantly lowers the EV of committing crime."
EV is expected value, not expectation. That is, I didn't say that crime is less likely. I said that a person who comes into a house in the US has a not insignificant chance of leaving on a stretcher, which I consider negative value from the invader's PoV.
im not stating a statistical fact. All Im saying is, all else being equal, there is an extra nevative term in the expected value equation that goes boom and has a P ~ 0.5
"Not all of those people consent to the gun's presence."
No, of course not. But most do.
Anyway, to my original post, a criminal entering a household has about an even chance to burgling an armed home. It varies regionally, so in Kennesaw the chance is nearly 100%, in Chicago it's nearly 0% (legally owned anyway).
"Republicans failed to deliver abortion bans for 50 years. "
Indeed but pro-life voters voted for the GOP with their nose pinched, mostly aghast (their perspective) at the alternative (the Dems have long moved away from "safe, available and rare").
Anyway, gun control is far less popular than overturning Roe. At least until you slice "Roe" up (partial birth, first, second, third trimester). Gun control will have to happen through the administrative state
Like everything in stats you have a conditional probability given that I, like most gun owners, am a responsible gun owner.
I have a safe, trigger locks, don't have a history of violence, etc. The small minority who are irresponsible gun owners get slaughtered increasing the numbers for the larger pool.
That partition function in the denominator is key!
Agreed. And feel free to do so in your country home.
Like the 1A, 2A isnt absolute, even conservatives say it isnt. You cant shoot guns for fun in a patio in NYC (but you should be allowed to own a mortar!). Not absolute but unconstitutionally stifled for decades.
Good comment! I was hesitant to put a number. Thats why I chose "household". But its pretty close to the right figure (probably closer to the low to mid 40s).
No one knows how many guns there are in America (more than one per person though) and who owns them. We know its mostly men, with a significant, increasing, number of women. Minorities are also increasing their share of legal gun ownership.
About 20%-30% of the adult population owns a gun, but many women don't say they "own a gun" if their husbands own one - guns are, for many reasons, very much "personal" property. It's the husband's gun or the house's gun, not necessarily hers [1]. However, in my experience talking to other gun owners, the wives support or encourage their continued ownership. Hence "household" ownership estimated somewhere about a third to half.
(Its actually probably closer to the mid to low 40s, but varies regionally. Chicago has very little legal handgun ownership, Kennesaw GA has basically universal gun ownership.)
Furthermore a lot of Americans own a gun without considering themselves a "gun owner". The single shot .22lr they got for their 12th birthday. The Ruger 10/22 that was passed down. An emotional relic they cling to that is still very much a firearm. Then there is the "shy conservative" who will lie on a survey. This to say, there is a significant amount of people with guns who will answer "no" to a survey question about gun ownership.
I think the best way to gauge this, an to your point about gun control, is its electoral significance. Democrats aren't really affected at the pols for failing to deliver gun control, but Republicans are demolished if they waver a little bit (note every GOP senator who voted for bill is retiring or not up for election). I think this hints that gun ownership and tolerance is widespread among the GOP and independents.
[1] imagine 250 lb hubby has a double stacked 10mm and is married to a 90lb petite. The physics doesn't work.
Even myself, Id love for my wife to come to the range one day, but Ill have to rent her a smaller pistol - the 92 has a very large grip even for me.
My anonymous gun ownership make me and my neighbors safer because I:
1. Can protect myself and my family.
2. Gun seeking criminals (e.g. Mexican drug cartels) that are better armed for the occasion do not know to target my house for my rifles, shotgun and handgun.
3. Burgling my very (yet cool) progressive neighbors is risky since every other house in America has a gun (I found a corner of swing state America that looks down on lawn signs). Widespread gun ownership significantly lowers the EV of committing crime.