I think there would still be a supply for refurbished products (maybe a bit less this time with the shortages) – as Apple cannot sell open-boxes or returned products as new.
Not All Apple refurbished products are created equal though.
Apple have literally the BEST condition you can expect on any refurbished product on the market.
But all other refurbishers (Gazelle, Mac of All trades, Amazon Warehouse, Decluttr...) grade them in a scale (A, B, C) based on their cosmetic condition and add a year warranty as well.
That was exactly my pain point back in 2007 when I wanted to get a specific configuration for the retina Macbook Pro.
That's why I built RefurbMe as a comparison and monitoring service :)