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Tutorial Forecasting for Data Scientists (Christoph Bergmeir) [video]

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3 points·by squidproquo·vor 2 Jahren·0 comments

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squidproquo
·vor 8 Monaten·discuss
When OpenAI goes public that will be the sign that they need to pass the baton to the retail invest--I mean--bag-holders.
squidproquo
·vor 9 Monaten·discuss
The non-determinism is part of the allure of these systems -- they operate like slot machines in a casino. The dopamine hit of getting an output that appears intelligent and the variable rewards keeps us coming back. We down-weight and ignore the bad outputs. I'm not saying these systems aren't useful to a degree, but one should understand the statistical implications on how we are collectively perceiving their usefulness.
squidproquo
·vor 9 Monaten·discuss
Reminds me of the marketing for a really bad movie:

- “genius” - “the missing link” - “breaks the barrier”
squidproquo
·vor 10 Monaten·discuss
The other thing to note is that journalism in the US has gotten really lazy. A lot of the articles you will see in the MSM are based on leaked info and press-releases from PR firms, etc. It's easier to for journalists to regurgitate stories hand-fed to them than doing truly hard and costly investigative work.
squidproquo
·letztes Jahr·discuss
Agree with this. Human language is also not very information-dense; there is a lot of redundancy and uninformative repetition of words.

I also wonder about the compounding effects of luck and survivorship bias when using these systems. If you model a series of interactions with these systems probabilistically, as a series of failure/success modes, then you are bound to get a sub-population of users (of LLM/LLRMs) that will undoubtedly have “fantastic” results. This sub-population will then espouse and promote the merits of the system. There is clearly something positive these models do, but how much of the “success” is just luck.
squidproquo
·vor 2 Jahren·discuss
Thank you for this. It’s nice to feel not alone.
squidproquo
·vor 2 Jahren·discuss
Excellent blog post. Summed up what I've been thinking for the past few years. I find myself endlessly consuming content (videos, podcasts, etc.) that I would deem "educational". It feels good, like you're learning something new, improving yourself. But at the end-of-the day you aren't. Your brain is just sitting there passively - not really doing any hard work. Instead of your brain generating ideas and solving problems, that process has been palmed off to the internet.