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ted_dunning

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ted_dunning
·vor 19 Tagen·discuss
Wow... that took me several, uh, seconds to find.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2516491

There's your hard data.
ted_dunning
·vor 19 Tagen·discuss
What do you mean by "immunizing vaccines"?

In the first sentence, you say that flu vaccines are not and in the second you admit they are.

Maybe you meant that their coverage is not comprehensive. If so, that's what you should say.

mRNA flu vaccines have substantial potential advantages in terms of the ability to target a wider spectrum of variants and faster time to manufacture.
ted_dunning
·vor 19 Tagen·discuss
Pushing those vaccines saved hundreds of thousands of lives.
ted_dunning
·vor 19 Tagen·discuss
This is usually modulated by whether the fib is about something "material".

In fact, he probably would have had the same decision with or without the claim which is the essence of "not material".

My own personal take is that the lying is crucial, however.
ted_dunning
·vor 19 Tagen·discuss
That's a fair point.

My own experience with converting unpaid customers is that it is really hard.
ted_dunning
·vor 20 Tagen·discuss
A bad abstraction would have caused many updates in many places because the API would never quite stabilize due to having been a force-fit from the start.

A uses the abstraction, but finds the API doesn't work. Fixes that.

That causes B to have to make a tracking change which induces a bug. B realizes that the API isn't quite right. Fixes it.

That causes A and C to make tracking changes. These induce more bugs. C fixes the abstraction to avoid these cases.

This breaks A and B so they decline to update.

And so on. This is what a bad abstraction looks like. API "fixes" bouncing around the code as they reflect off of the bad abstraction.
ted_dunning
·vor 20 Tagen·discuss
I, on the other hand, have had to burn through countless cycles of security alerts because I used a library for JSON parsing that had all kinds of other features that I didn't need or want.

The security bugs were all in features I never wanted.

A bit of simple duplication would have been golden.
ted_dunning
·vor 24 Tagen·discuss
That may be true, but it is likely that the contract limits you to arbitration, forbids class action and limits the penalty dramatically.
ted_dunning
·vor 24 Tagen·discuss
Add in the fact that they claim 900 million weekly uniques. Pretending the growth and cost rates compound as described in the article, they will need to generate about 100x current revenue to growth out of their current hole. That sort of implies that they will have 10x the entire world's population as weekly uniques at that time.

That seems unlikely.
ted_dunning
·letzten Monat·discuss
Cutting out the middlemen. Getting rid of the pesky chlorophyl syndicate.
ted_dunning
·letzten Monat·discuss
and I cry again when I see mountains of fly ash from coal burning.
ted_dunning
·letzten Monat·discuss
This is an important point. In the 1980's, PV panels extracted 5-10% of the incident solar energy which could be converted to heat at roughly 100% efficiency. Solar thermal collectors collected at 80+% efficiency and could store and return the heat at about that level for a net 70% round trip. That's a lot better than PV, especially if the collector is your entire south-facing facade.

Nowadays, panels are sitting at roughly 20% and heat pumps have a coefficient of performance around 4x. If you need a battery round trip, you are right about the 70% point and you now have electricity which is more generally useful than low grade heat.

Those 40 year old decisions, as you say, have had several decades of ossification, though, so it is hard to uproot them.
ted_dunning
·letzten Monat·discuss
It scales up just the way that siloes on farms scale up ... you build more of them.

And the Finns put a priority on staying warm. For normal electrical generation, they largely use wind with a growing solar fraction.
ted_dunning
·letzten Monat·discuss
And even better is to augment it with large scale batteries.

Nuclear is fine, but very expensive and very slow to deploy.
ted_dunning
·letzten Monat·discuss
The adoption rate in places like Australia and even Texas is what demonstrates that the argument holds water.

People wouldn't be rushing to shift entire markets at the observed rates if the economics were upside down. It is the soundness of the economic model that is driving the adoption even against tariffs and subversion by the current US regime.
ted_dunning
·letzten Monat·discuss
It would be pretty easy to put a DuckDB data source into this code.

It might be pretty easy to use overloading to get special case implementations that form SQL queries progressively until the results need to be materialized as something like a dataframe for the function code to work on.
ted_dunning
·letzten Monat·discuss
Are you saying that you have not observed these things in the world? I definitely have. The blog didn't do the work for you, but if we look at some of the claims I think it is pretty clear:

a) increased training scale would result in highly fluent systems that would fool users into trusting untrustworthy output.

Can you possibly be claiming that this is not a common experience? Do you really need references to the legal cases which had hallucinated legal theories and citations? Or the utter slop being passed off as research papers?

b) large-scale AI would amplify bias in the source material.

The large investments nearly every frontier model development team spends on this problem is probably good enough evidence. Grok is another point of evidence. The studies showing that AI systems imitate gender bias in evaluating resumes is another. The gender bias in estimating names of people in sentences is another.

The blog actually mentions specific cases that exhibited all of these problems. They did not cite references for them, but you can use a search engine.

c) environment costs

This is widely discussed and documented. Take Xai's use of polluting turbine generators for their data center in for Collossus 2 in Mississippi as just a single example. Do you really need a reference for the environmental impact of the proposed data center in Utah that (as planned) will consume more energy than the entire state currently does?

d) training set audits are impossible.

Do you need substantiation of the inappropriate imagery in training data? The blog gives you a pretty solid reference.

... and so on ...

I suppose that it could be true that when you say "I don't see" you really meant "I didn't look at the blog". Is that why you can't see the substantiation?
ted_dunning
·vor 2 Monaten·discuss
You're right.

It's the physics of cooling the beasts and the communication delays that make those plans ludicrous.

To turn your assertion on its head, the fact that the supporters don't seem to be able (or willing) to do the math to fact check these proposals is not an indicator that the plans will work.

As a starting point for comparison, the total power budget of the ISS is under 100kW and a single supercomputer rack dissipates about 4x that. What changes to the ISS can be made to get 100x more power and dissipate 100x more heat?
ted_dunning
·vor 2 Monaten·discuss
Putting your single egg into multiple baskets isn't all that much better. Now you have many points of failure rather than a single point of failure.
ted_dunning
·vor 2 Monaten·discuss
The guardrails are channels.

If you have a mutex on a structure, linters such as are packaged into Goland will catch oversights quite effectively.

If you are using fancier concurrency structures, you should consider channels instead.