wkyle · HackerTrans

vor 3 Jahrendiscuss

I don't think that it makes a ton of sense to draw an ideological difference between shorting and buying in the secondary market, where buying is 'Investing' and short selling isn't. Both are valid contributors to price discovery. The initial investment already happened, you're not actually adding capital to the company when buying shares on an exchange.

wkyle

vor 3 Jahrendiscuss

No, NW border of Excelsior is 280, so definitely not north of Monterrey Blvd. Broad strokes neighborhood is Twin Peaks area. That part of Twin Peaks is heavily influenced by historically affluent planned developments. Some of the more well known ones listed here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_Residence_Parks.

I am not familiar with the history of some of the other planned tracts there but this map seems to suggest that area is mostly composed of master planned communities. https://sfrichmondreview.com/2023/01/10/local-author-and-his...

wkyle

vor 3 Jahrendiscuss

Note that nonfarm payroll is still seasonally adjusted - 156105k vs. 156306k adjusted. The FRED series for NFP with and without sesonality: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=15LPE

wkyle

vor 4 Jahrendiscuss

> The answer to that more likely has to do with some very broad phenomenon: capital has been accumulating due to increases in energy availability. Human talent (that turns capital into something actual) is plateauing due to slowing of population growth.

> As the world became more stable over time, the default risk also lessened over time

I think these are both saying the same thing from two sides - the default risk going down doesn't really mean anything in isolation. The implied context is the default risk goes down for the same rate of return (or the rate of return goes up for the same default risk).

wkyle

vor 4 Jahrendiscuss

I'm not sure if this claim really makes sense - if water districts are incentivized by income, and if high users really have such inelastic water consumption, then wouldn't the water district continue to raise the tiered rates at the highest level?

Thus, under these assumptions, the current tiered rates should accurately reflect the marginal price that the wasteful users are willing to pay, and any rise in price would result in a decrease in consumption.

wkyle

vor 4 Jahrendiscuss

If the intention of this idea is to allocate reasonable consumption to each person at low prices and quickly increase prices beyond that, then I don't think this wouldn't be a bad thing.

Tradeable quotas can be an effective way to protect a common resource.

wkyle

vor 4 Jahrendiscuss

The parent comment suggests a progressively priced system that would presumably allow for cheap consumption of water at small quantities. I think the comments here discarding this idea by claiming price sensitivity doesn't exist for wealthy people are unimaginative.

I'm not totally sold on on the idea, but it is very possible to create a tiered pricing system that makes domestic water waste unsustainably expensive. The price required to deter consumption may be absurdly high, but demand elasticity will always exist at high enough prices.

wkyle

vor 4 Jahrendiscuss

A cyclist must be courteous for you not to kill them? The instigator on an unsafe pass is the person passing, not the person getting passed.

wkyle

vor 4 Jahrendiscuss

It's certainly possible that even with the volatility smile markets still underprice unlikely events, but high returns from a tail-heding fund during a black swan event hardly provides any evidence. Regardless of pricing, the expectation of the strategy is infrequent high returns and frequent poor or negative returns. Whether the market accurately prices these events also depends on how bad returns are during years without anomalous market conditions, and the intervals between fat-tail events.

wkyle

vor 4 Jahrendiscuss

To give a brief counter to the Taleb/Spitznagel Empirica Kurtosis strategy, the pricing of deep out of the money options is systematically overvalued in relation to the Black-Scholes model, suggesting that the market correctly prices in fat tails.

The volatility smile pattern describes the 'overvalued' nature of these options, and the SKEW index tracks their pricing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility_smile

https://www.cboe.com/us/indices/dashboard/skew/

wkyle

vor 4 Jahrendiscuss

Why would a larger bicycle be less eco-friendly than a small, intricate bicycle with many bespoke components?