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MP_1729

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What AGI can do you for your average enterprise?

metacriticcapital.substack.com
1 points·by MP_1729·5 months ago·0 comments

What can still be a reasonable AI bear thesis?

metacriticcapital.substack.com
1 points·by MP_1729·5 months ago·1 comments

comments

MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
This is Eliezer Yudkowskyto to blame LMAO, alongside with all the EAs extremists that shifted the Overton Window to think that images can be unsafe.
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
Because tradition is incredibly important.
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
Really funny people complaining about classical chess, I don't know which games they have been watching.

Nepo Magnus game 6, Nepo Ding many many games, Nepo Caruana draw on round 14 of candidates. ALL OF THEM WERE TERRIFIC GAMES.

I don't understand what people mean by stagnation
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
I'm in a low-cost country, haha! So the intern is even cheaper.
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
25 prompts is the daily limit on o1-preview. And I wrote that script in just one day.
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
My 3rd day intern still couldn't do a script o1-preview could do in less than 25 prompts.

OBVIOUSLY a smart OAI employee wouldn't want the public to think they are already replacing high-level humans.

And OBVIOUSLY OAI senior management will want to try to convince AI engineers that might have 2nd-guessings about their work that they aren't developing a replacement for human beings.

But they are.
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
That's not how pricing works.

If o1-pro is 10% better than Claude, but you are a guy who makes $300,000 per year, but now can make $330,000 because o1-pro makes you more productive, then it makes sense to give Sam $2,400.
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
My new internet is in his 3rd day in the job and he's still behind o1-preview with less than 25 prompts.
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
Good. Effective Austruism is trying to destroy democratic institutions and it's likely a bigger threat to society than fascism. The pro-progress people needs to organize themselves to stop types like SBF from giving AI to China.
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
Satya Nadella's Microsoft is such a weird company. It's like there's one side of it that is running with Zuckerberg's "move fast and break things" and the other side is saying "wait, we're the most important software company in the world! Things can't break!"
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
“You want to know how to paint a perfect painting? It's easy. Make yourself perfect and then just paint naturally.” - Robert M. Pirsig

The Musk reasoning here is stupid, but smart. If he makes a superhuman intelligence, he can only ask it "What is dark matter?" and it might figure out.

I have some big problems with this idea, but it isn't 100% stupid. Just 98% stupid.
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
It's more like: don't invest $100B in capital when there's still orders of magnitude improvements in software to be made.
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
Ask stuff like "Check whether there's some correlation between the major economies fiscal primary deficit and GDP growth in the post-pandemic era" and get an answer.
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
Obviously, I know these timetables.

But there's a light and day difference post-Nov22 than before. Both in the AI race it sparkled, but also in the funding all AI labs have.

If you're expecting GPT-5 by 2026, that's ok. Just very weird to me.
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
Nope, I'm not
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
Was there ever a time when betting that computer scientists would not make better algorithms was a good idea?
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
I'm curious now. Can you give color on what you're doing that you keep hitting boundaries? I suppose it isn't limited by human-attention.
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
they literally launched TODAY a GPT-4 model!
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
Two pushbacks.

1- The mania only started post Nov 22. And the huge investments since then didn't meant substantial progress since GPT-4 launch in March 22. 2- We are running out of high quality tokens in 2024. (per Epoch AI)
MP_1729
·2 years ago·discuss
I am sure that people at OpenAI, particularly former YC CEO Sam Altman, will be fine, even if they read the bad stuff MP_1729 says around here.