c0m

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1 pointsby c0m3 years ago0 comments

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3 years agodiscuss

I would like to test whether prediction markets are worse than they were during zero-interest land. The incentive to create sophisticated models to get low percentage points of edge is much lower today than it was before. Why risk time and effort trying to predict the 2024 election for a few pp of edge when you can… just buy a 1y tbill instead? Sure there are probably better ways to express an opinion on these types of things too. Options that favour a team red or team blue win come to mind, but no matter what you’re still competing with 5% yield.

I think this is solvable by having some kind of betting token that itself accrues interest over time to reduce the opportunity cost but if regulators already don’t like prediction markets boy they especially wouldn’t like that.

3 years agodiscuss

Just as calling the maintainer's offer extortion is not correct, I think it's also to call the email a threat is not correct. It's at worst entitled and slightly aggressive in the part that we saw.

It's pretty shocking that someone in the industry so long thinks that OSS maintainers owe him anything though, or that he didn't think to simply fork his own version - he must know this is an option. He's probably read the MIT license at some point in his career - has he never stopped to think about what to provide something 'as-is' means? His position suggests that he has the resources available to do a lot of things that were far less embarrassing than asking someone who owes him nothing to make his job easier.

3 years agodiscuss

From the IBM employee's perspective it should seem reasonable that if he's asking for specifics that take time to figure out and for answers to questions while not contributing anything to the project, that he should pay for those answers in a timely fashion for his benefit. He's treating the Github like a support page so I don't see anything wrong with the maintainer offering a support contract in response to that. It would be beneficial to both parties.

If the maintainer said "I'm not releasing this until you grant me a support contract", maybe that would be extortion. Until then, he's simply getting the service he pays for.

3 years agodiscuss

I've spent the last two years very successfully trading and I am interested in a career where I need to think like this. I've written a comprehensive blog on what I did in lieu of a CV, as it's more interesting and tells you more about who I am and how I think.

I'm expanding my skillset from just programming and trading to include generative AI, currently making a mentoring companion to language learning. I've got strong soft skills from years working in care. I'm seeking junior trading roles or internships, or a similar career where risk is thought about a lot.

  Location: Ireland
  Remote: No preference
  Willing to relocate: Anywhere in the world, UK + Irish citizenship
  Technologies: Python w/ Jupyter notebooks and dataviz libraries, ChatGPT, C#
  Résumé/CV: https://medium.com/@c0m/learning-the-business-of-risk-a1d69dda915a
  Email: hn [AT] omaolain [DOT] com

3 years agodiscuss

Docket if you want to see what the lawyer comes up with after the deadline passes https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/63107798/mata-v-avianca...

3 years agodiscuss

This is a centuries-long debate with both of the two methods I mentioned being centuries old. Who are these grifters you are talking about? What is this new style you are talking about?

This comment reads like ChatGPT being asked to be contrarian for contrarian's sake.

3 years agodiscuss

Why would a $1k/month drug increase costs more compared to the status quo of expensive bariatric surgeries and complicated heart failure/joint issues/osteoarthritis/sleep apnea etc. cases that arise from obesity? Massively reducing obesity rates seems like a good thing from the POV of an insurer.

3 years agodiscuss

- Prewrite essay with ChatGPT

- Spend 15 minutes writing an essay structure in Google Docs (with the essay you already have, also maybe this step could be done for you by ChatGPT)

- Gradually rewrite the essay you've already got in front of you, which can look like a normal writing process

Congratulations, you have now not only got a legit looking edit history, but also you've rewritten what ChatGPT spat out, thwarting other potential methods of detection.

3 years agodiscuss

Sean Hannity also promised the same in 2009, though is yet to follow through with it. I wonder why.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hannity-offers-to-be-wate_n_1...

3 years agodiscuss

Monitoring of workplace comms is fine and legal, ditto for access logs; (taking this post at face value) monitoring of facial expressions, undisclosed webcam and microphone monitoring at home, abusing access to workers’ personal phones, and feeding all this in to a black box for a score that your manager basically pinky swears to not use as part of your review is not okay.

3 years agodiscuss

I suspect the CSA’s new ‘rip-off tip-off’ campaign would be interested in this!

https://ripoff-tipoff.campaign.gov.uk/

3 years agodiscuss

All politicians and companies do this type of thing. Here's [1] a particularly egregious example from 9/11, where a UK government advisor sent out a memo at advising "It's now a very good day to get out anything we want to bury".

Judging from the tone, the writer was elated. She sent the email shortly after the second plane hit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/oct/09/uk.past

3 years agodiscuss

Wow, I didn't realise this was a risk picking up steam. Can only imagine how frustrating the internet was for screen reader users in 2020, which probably spurred this campaign on.

Info for the underinformed: https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/behavioral-...

https://www.whoisaccessible.com/guidelines/largest-web-acces...

3 years agodiscuss

It's probably also the mental health [1], less intimacy with their peers (imo reflected in [2] teen sex plummeting), less face time with peers in general in part due to increased homework loads (if you went to school in the 90s, your kid is prob doing 2x the hw you did) [3] which is of dubious effectiveness anyway [4].

I'm not saying it's not the guns. But I am saying that the US is the only developed country with the problem on this scale and it's a probably a far deeper cultural issue than just access to weaponry.

Forcing students to wear clear bags is ridiculous security theatre to the particular detriment of students with needs from (possibly undiagnosed) scoliosis etc. Thank God that there are no winter coats which could easily hide a pistol and several mags or a knife! All this policy achieves is scaring people.

1: https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/04/amer...

2: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2023/04/28/teenag...

3: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/02/20/the-way-u...

4: https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2019/03/homewo...

3 years agodiscuss

Totally agree so I installed SwiftKey. It worked great for years and I’ve been super happy! Then in the last year, SwiftKey has been randomly crashing so while I type I swap between the SwiftKey and normal keyboard unwillingly several times per message. The built-in keyboard seems absolutely determined to believe that the word 'fuck' does not exist.

3 years agodiscuss

It’s concerning to think of some sort of major constitutional crisis taking place during wartime due to disagreement between PM and King. I’m a little baffled that this has never been framed as a national security issue, at least it hasn’t been a popular narrative in my lifetime.

At the same time, whatever government opens that particular Pandora’s box is in for a hell of a ride, so I understand why.

I'm obviously an abolitionist but I would be much less worried about this if the powers matched the role. I'm sure HN could empathise better than most websites that giving a supposed read-only user unused, powerful permissions is probably not the best idea.

3 years agodiscuss

> The [monarch] doesn’t really have any power in practice

Entirely untrue. The monarch has a weekly meeting with the Prime Minister. There have been many cases of the Queen getting carveouts, influencing laws, and vetting bills. There is no law forbidding the monarch from not granting Royal Assent. This notion that the British monarch has no power is an absolute farce.

There’s also the whole concept of King’s Consent, wherein the King gets to vet every single bill for affect the crown's own prerogatives or interests, and negotiate secretly with the government to change the contents of that bill. The Guardian articles detail this process as well. If you seriously believe the King has no power in practice I have a bridge to sell you.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/King%27s_Consent

https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/07/revealed-queen-l...

https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/08/queen-lobbied-fo...

https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jul/28/queen-secretly-l...

https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jul/28/revealed-queen-v...

3 years agodiscuss

If you have a bad lock on your door, is it still criminal if I bypass it with lockpicking tools and distribute them, telling everyone how to exploit your specific lock? FWIW I disagree with anti-circumvention laws as they exist in the DMCA, but it seems like a straightforward passage to interpret.

The devil’s advocate argument that I can come up with for it is that it allows developers incapable of adding sufficient protection to have their work have protection of the law, rather than code.

See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_City_Studios,_Inc._v...

3 years agodiscuss

Negative spin? The editorialising of it is reasonably nuanced, even going so far as to point out that customers “[might not] have to trade in [their] older Model S or Model X vehicle when taking this offer”, and calling the offer ‘interesting’.

Really hard to see this as anything other than at worst neutral.

3 years agodiscuss

Hell, even CSGO is running on DX9.