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dia80

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dia80
·3 months ago·discuss
Tailscale on your PC and phone. Free (as in beer). I run vikunja.io in docker at home and simply web browse to it over the tailnet.
dia80
·12 months ago·discuss
If you are using the dollar right now, what pain are you taking? None. What's actually happened? US added some tariffs and became a bit more isolationist and the Fed has lost some independence. Might not bode well for the future but has very little impact on today.
dia80
·12 months ago·discuss
Even if the dollar was "dead" the time and effort required by the world economy to switch away from the dollar system would be enormous so not much is likely to happen quicker than a few decades.
dia80
·2 years ago·discuss
This warrant's a little caution, there may well be some negative selection bias here. The banks most likely to go bust are the ones most desperate for cash so they offer the highest interest rates... If it's FDIC insured you are good up to $250k but I don't know exactly how much inconvenience is associated with your bank going bust and potentially collecting FDIC insurance.
dia80
·2 years ago·discuss
UK rules differ from the US there is a 3-point test for insider trading:

1. The information has to be specific - Yes - you should sell Boeing

2. Would a reasonable investor take this information into account when making a decision to trade - Yes - this seems quite clear

3. The information must be non public - IIRC disclosure to a large group of people - in this case the perhaps 200ish people on the plane knowing it had a problem would probably count as the information being public and thus this test is not met and you are free to trade - I think the bar is around 30 people

I knew all those hours spent in compliance training would come in handy one day!
dia80
·3 years ago·discuss
Not really going to help you make money...
dia80
·3 years ago·discuss
Forecast! Time to reach for your linear regression, GBDT or NN.
dia80
·3 years ago·discuss
Quant trader here... I'm a big seller of this list. Making money tends to be a relatively empirical endeavor. It's all about having information about the future and using that in judiciously way and less so about any particular theory or model. I see someone else mentioning Grinold and Khan "Active Portfolio Management", I can't recommend it enough, it's basically a how to for making money quantitatively in a principled way, there are lots of "tips and tricks" that go on top of this and it really helps to have some good intuition for the space you are trying to operate in (by that I mean understanding the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of your risk matrix). T-costs are also extremely important and the main "enemy" it's trivial to make money if you don't have to pay to trade.

Steven Boyd at Stanford and his students / colleagues are probably the richest seam of up to date portfolio optimization wisdom. If you are using python you shoult probably be using CVXPY to build your portfolio. He has lots of good papers, e.g. see [2].

Of course you also need an "edge", that information about the future, and that's the jealously guarded part...

[1] https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/Active_Portfolio_Mana...

[2] https://stanford.edu/~boyd/papers/pdf/cvx_portfolio.pdf
dia80
·3 years ago·discuss
What's that little box for? A foot warmer?
dia80
·3 years ago·discuss
Great video, thoughtful and persuasive. Highly recommended to broaden your perspective, it did for me.
dia80
·3 years ago·discuss
As I understand it SVB is insolvent primarily due to incompetence, the actual actions they have taken: take deposits and buying US treasury bonds are every day activities for a bank. There are no exotic derivatives or off balance sheet special purpose vehicles. It's hard to regulate that away.
dia80
·3 years ago·discuss
Not so, Kherson was annexed and is now back in Ukrainian hands. You can conclude from this that RU accepts their annexations are BS.
dia80
·3 years ago·discuss
True Story: I visited No. 11 Downing Street as a school boy in 1998 when Gordon Brown, our local MP, was chancellor. He took us next door to no. 12 where Nick Brown was chief whip, he started pointing out things in his office and as he was doing so a side door opened and a man stepped in. He pointed at the man and said "And that's a civil servant". The man reversed course, closed the door, opened it again and stuck his head around and said "Yes, minister". My classmates didn't get the joke, I did but was too stunned to laugh as Nick Brown and Gordon Brown had fallen about laughing and I was just thinking "aren't you meant to be running the country and not making TV jokes?" To be fair it was pretty funny :)
dia80
·3 years ago·discuss
You are going to love this:

How real are real numbers?

https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0411418
dia80
·4 years ago·discuss
To me, some of the benefits of having the occasional meeting is to create a shared understanding of what's going on and also to enable a vigorous group discussion. I'm not sure I would know how to replicate that with writing alone.
dia80
·5 years ago·discuss
The opinions on consultants in the thread is largely negative and it's suggested hiring them is a sign of organisational dysfunction. If you can find information on consulting spend in annual reports you could create a "consultant factor" for stocks and see if big spenders underperform.