I have used Claude to write a lot of code. I am however already a programmer, one with ~25 years of experience. I’ve also lead organizations of 2-200 people.
So while I don’t think the world I described exists today — one where non-programmers, with neither programming nor programmer-management experience, use these tools to build software — I don’t a priori disbelieve its possibility.
The thing is that also empowering individuals to do specialized activities by way of a tool (instead of themselves having to specialize) is a hallmark of progress? Like I don’t need a “professional” to wash my clothes, I don’t need to wash my clothes myself. I use a washing machine.
I don’t need to hire a programmer. I don’t need to be a programmer. I can use a tool to program for me.
(We sure as hell aren’t there yet, but that’s a possibility).
“Practical freedom” is a very important measure of freedom. If you are generally more free to do what you want, how much does it matter that you live in a dictatorship? If I live in a democracy with 10,000 laws I can’t meaningful affect with 1 vote, am I free?
So while I don’t think the world I described exists today — one where non-programmers, with neither programming nor programmer-management experience, use these tools to build software — I don’t a priori disbelieve its possibility.