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kingstnap

1,189 karmajoined last year
Hi :)

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kingstnap
·2 days ago·discuss
Why are resource limits considered at all aside from models accidentally fork bombing themselves?

I thought the benchmark was supposed to be about terminal use and specifically chaining together lots of bash tool calls. Which test cases does this matter for?
kingstnap
·3 days ago·discuss
Given current prices I doubt anyone is itching at the bone to spec out hardware.

Idk where you would even buy registered DDR5 dims right now. Newegg shows $Request a quote money and that its built to order ... for a 64 GB stick lol.
kingstnap
·6 days ago·discuss
These are not ideas worth pursuing from an engineering standpoints. It doesn't make any sense compared to just doing the cheap and proven at scale thing of just placing them in normal fields.

But I will agree that the idea has proven marketing merit. This is a class of truly top tier snake oil. The solar roadways people continue to go unbelievably far on almost the same grift.
kingstnap
·8 days ago·discuss
A DGX B200 costs like ~$0.5 M and uses around 14 kW.

If you plan to run it straight for 8 years 100% max usage thats around 1 GWhr.

A gigawatt hour is a lot of energy but its not that much compared to the price of the actual machine. In Germany for example with its expensive energy thats about €100k worth, which spread over 8 years is pretty minor compared to the up front half mill.

The real issue with high power consumption is not really the cost of energy but the limited powersupply you can get for a datacenter. A more efficient setup is highly desirable because it means you can fit more in the limited power hookup.
kingstnap
·8 days ago·discuss
A consumer CPU like a 285k caps out around 130 GB/s of memory bandwidth.

Each of its 24 cores can do two 8 wide FMA ops per cycle. Lets say holding a continuous 4 GHz clock speed.

This works out to over 1.5 trillion 32 bit floating point multiplies per cycle.

If you are doing vector matrix multiplies (like in single token no batching). `xW` then each weight loaded sort of gets used in 1 multiplication and 1 addition.

Doing the math you can clearly see even if each weight were just 1 byte you can at most load 130 billion of them in a second from memory.

But in the same timespan you could have done over 1.5 trillion multiplications.

So you are still memory bound.
kingstnap
·9 days ago·discuss
Btw if anyone is wondering, GPT 5.5 does the same garbage as 5.4 mini for 4 times the cost.

Fable manages to make a reasonable game, at a cost of 40 cents.

  X X O O O
  O O X X X
  X X X O O
  X O O X O
  X O X X O
kingstnap
·9 days ago·discuss
Input: $0.95

Cache hit (most important): $0.19

Output: $4.00

This is the same as how much Moonshot charges for it, and it puts it at roughly the price of GPT 5.4 mini, not a bad option.

For some context here is a stupid prompt that wastes tokens: "Play a game of tic tac toe against yourself on a 5x5 board, you need 5 in a row to win."

It costs $0.006 on Kimi K2.7, and you get to see the whole raw reasoning trace.

GPT-5.4 mini costs $0.016 and its summarized.

And in case you are wondering both play incredibly stupidly.

Kimi:

      A   B   C   D   E
  1   .   .   .   .   .
  2   .   .   .   .   .
  3   X   X   X   X   X
  4   .   O   O   O   O
  5   .   .   .   .   .
GPT 5.4 mini:

  1: X X X X X
  2: O O . . .
  3: . . O . .
  4: . . . O .
  5: . . . . O
kingstnap
·11 days ago·discuss
Relevant YouTube video about content farming channels creating AI generated math explainers.

https://youtu.be/mRO_QonhC2c
kingstnap
·13 days ago·discuss
Output tokens are actually kinda expensive for the provider.

The input cache hit tokens are incredibly cheap for them, (incredibly high margin too, except for deepseek).

And input tokens are in the middle. Input tokens can be processed very efficiently.

Also his math is wrong. $100k gets you 22.7B output tokens at $4.4/M which is how much GLM 5.2 costs.

At 500/s 22.7B is just 500 days. Or about 1.54 years. Which is much less then the life of the hardware.
kingstnap
·13 days ago·discuss
If the job pays well and is relatively stable it could be very worth it.

The thing about jobs like this are that they invite more opportunities. These manufacturing workers will want hairdressers, grocery stores, restaurants, teachers, doctors, etc.

Entire towns in the past used to get made on the backs of a few thousand manufacturering jobs.
kingstnap
·15 days ago·discuss
Don't forget this.

> For GPT‑5.6 and later models, cache writes are billed at 1.25x the model’s uncached input rate

Charging for cache writes is cringe and literally only Anthropic did it. Anyway this does mean the "real" prices are +25% on top of what you wrote there.
kingstnap
·15 days ago·discuss
This is basically just a 25% price increase being done subversively. Usually you do need caching.
kingstnap
·18 days ago·discuss
If you add up GE Aerospace, RTX Corporation, The Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics put together you get a market cap of about 1T btw.
kingstnap
·18 days ago·discuss
I don't understand this line of reasoning at all.

We have a pretty good idea of how much it costs to serve these models. You can pencil out the economics and guess at the model sizes and we know pretty decently how expensive the hardware is.

This like claiming it's meaningless to guess the margins of a restaurant without going into their books and seeing the exact recipets and recipes.

They ain't doing dark arts in the back. You can guess at what goes into the food based on similar recipies and how much that costs based on what you pay at the grocery store.
kingstnap
·19 days ago·discuss
Even if it drops to 1/2 its IPO price ($855B valuation) that still massively overpaying for it.

What do they think is gonna come from this SpaceX + Twitter + XAi + Cursor amalgamation? Sexbot agents vibe coding on Mars?
kingstnap
·24 days ago·discuss
According to many benchmarks this model is straight up frontier level and Zai seriously cooked. Some of these numbers are incredible.

Excited to see if this turns out to be a Open Weight Opus 4.5 or better.
kingstnap
·25 days ago·discuss
Cursor is massively overvalued. But so is SpaceX so it all evens out in the end.

> each share of Cursor’s common stock and each share of Cursor’s preferred stock outstanding immediately prior to the Effective Time of the Merger will be automatically converted into the right to receive shares of the Company’s Class A common stock based on an implied equity value of Cursor of $60.0 billion and the price of the Company’s Class A common stock equal to the volume-weighted average closing price thereof over the seven consecutive trading days

Current market cap is 2.66T which is pretty bonkers. Thats about intel, amd, and micron put together.
kingstnap
·26 days ago·discuss
What AI really seems to be posed to do is make labour a lot less valuable and capital a lot more valuable.

Running a government requires a lot of cash flow. I think its sort of inevitable that it's going to need to start coming mostly from the later and not the former.
kingstnap
·29 days ago·discuss
Highly reliable supply chains to bet the entire future on :)
kingstnap
·30 days ago·discuss
Your pricing is ridiculously cheap. Cars are expensive.

But aside from that you really can't offer unlimited usage. You would need to offer quota.

Maybe something like 30 km / day that rolls over into a limit of 300 km.