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martinvol

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What happens when your blog hits #1 in Hacker News?

martinvol.pe
2 points·by martinvol·2 months ago·3 comments

Blogging like a nerd: Cloudflare Pages is all you need

martinvol.pe
5 points·by martinvol·2 months ago·0 comments

The Hormuz Blockade: The energy and supply chain crisis that's upon us

martinvol.pe
6 points·by martinvol·3 months ago·2 comments

How the AI Bubble Bursts

martinvol.pe
372 points·by martinvol·4 months ago·523 comments

Why Isn't Anyone Panicking?

martinvol.pe
1 points·by martinvol·4 months ago·0 comments

comments

martinvol
·2 months ago·discuss
Isn't this how the Jaguar fiasco came to be?
martinvol
·2 months ago·discuss
Haven't tried, but have you checked OpenCode?
martinvol
·2 months ago·discuss
Obviously it helps that the content is good, but ultimately is very hard to predict what people will find interesting. There's also a big share of luck about how the people that are online at that time react to it.
martinvol
·3 months ago·discuss
I guess it's also a bit after that, because that'd make reserves full and they'll start depleting day-by-day. In any way we should see prices consistently increasing.
martinvol
·3 months ago·discuss
if they have the capital they can't risk but keep training, if someone comes up with a marginally better model than them then everyone will migrate and their business crashes down. Only big tech is in a position to take that risk.
martinvol
·4 months ago·discuss
bubbles are created by people investing more than reasonable in something, independent of the actual value it will generate for society.
martinvol
·4 months ago·discuss
I don't think token demand will shrink because we're still just learning how to use it, demand will skyrocket. The problem is what price we'll be willing to pay for it, specially if competition keeps soaring.
martinvol
·4 months ago·discuss
they have to fight to stay competitive because mag7 can outspend them, but my hypothesis is that they wont need to ultimately.
martinvol
·4 months ago·discuss
yeah good point, although it's just one of all the catalysers I mentioned. I fact I had written most of the post already before I saw the news about RAM.
martinvol
·4 months ago·discuss
RAM prices haven't crashed yet and it'll take time because it has to propagate within the supply chain. Micron is -20% from the top already https://www.investing.com/equities/micron-tech

Stock price is the best forward indicator I can think of
martinvol
·4 months ago·discuss
> The problem with these kind of posts is that "How" is almost useless, I can tell you how the bubble pops: The value of these AI companies crash and take out a lots of other stuff with it.

That's like saying "I know exactly how you're going to die, your heart will stop"
martinvol
·4 months ago·discuss
great feedback