The author says: "I think this expanding birthrate is a great thing"
I think it's the dot-com bubble all over again. But this time, it's coinciding with a worldwide economic depression, market saturation and shrinking venture capital. Therefore, it does not bode well for the copy-cat startups and investors.
Alot of the big venture raised were from the heydays of 1999-2001, when the funds had 10 year lifespan. Those are expiring now/soon. Recently, venture fund raising is down 50% from last quarter, close to 2009 lows. http://venturebeat.com/2010/08/11/vc-portfolios-improve-in-q.... So venture is definitely shrinking.
Although startups nowadays require less capital, there are also fewer (niche) markets to go into these days, as those have already been filled up. So startups have to compete for the same niche market. Look at ycombinator's 3 (!!) social mail plugin companies (rapportive, xobni, etacts) (in pg's defense, those company founders chose to pivot and cannibalize the same market) And look at techstar/ycombinator/funded institues: They have alot of overlapping generic startups.
And with platforms becoming ever so dominant (twitter, facebook, google), startups can't compete in the same massive market.
So there will be lots of startup death as funds run dry and economy gets worse. As dave mcclure recently pronounced, "90% of you will fail". But the important thing is to know that, and to hunker down and focus on surviving.
Agreed. Also, there is the value perception. When players have to sort through all these MMO games to play, the paid ones stand out over the free ones. (for those players with limited time to play, and can afford to pay)
cynicalkane's biased; he programs for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Of course he wants to persuade the lemmings to invest so that he still has a job. Logical? yes. Immoral? probably.
Here we are again, trying to convince ourselves that the boat is still sinking. I really don't understand the lower galley's fascination with drowning.
For every item on the list you can point to trends that are positive for the exact same metric. The boat is still afloat.
I agree that the availability of fine wine is quite uncertain right now. However, waving the flag of doom isn't really productive at this point.
Either way, it makes you no better than that Jack Dawson guy.
Actually, the pink elephant in the room is the huge corporate debt - total domestic debts at 7.2 Trillions.
"American companies are not in robust financial shape. Federal Reserve data show that their debts have been rising, not falling. By some measures, they are now more leveraged than at any time since the Great Depression.
Central bank and Commerce Department data reveal that gross domestic debts of nonfinancial corporations now amount to 50% of GDP. That's a postwar record. In 1945, it was just 20%. Even at the credit-bubble peaks in the late 1980s and 2005-06, it was only around 45%."
Please read the post. The poster was talking about the bailout. The average gas price after the bailout in LA is around 1.69. The average gas price right now in LA is 3.13
Yes, and we are going to have economic correction regardless of whether the government print or not. Printing just makes the correction even greater and the suffering more pronounced.
1.) You're (like most people on this board) are confusing technology gains with monetary phenomenons.
2.) We went from a mainly single-income family in the 70s to dual-income family today. Notice how most household today goes to hell if even one parent is laid off.
I could be crazy :) I am sitting in a coffeeshop relaxing and spending money from my income-generating business, while I watch worker drones go to work with scowls on their face, awaiting to be blamed for failing profits at their company.
Oh and if you think inflation is near 0%, you're not as smart as I thought you were ;)
"we still haven't gotten that worthless dollar and inflation"
Oh yeah? Dollar is at 85 vs the yen, from 115 three years ago. Food prices doubled (food portions also got smaller), healthcare costs doubled, gas prices doubled, and so on. Are you using the old trusty government CPI for your inflation stats?
...Except it couldn't raise rates. Not with trillions of debt needing to be paid back by both government and corporations (hint: there's no way). So the fed will just print and print and print...until the dollar is worthless.
Please, then tell me why my arguments are wrong. Don't be offended just because you're one of those sheeples that go to work every day that have to withstand long commute and increasing workloads, so that you can be effectively taxed at 70% after inflation.
Should we feel sorry for you because you don't have the patience to wait? Because you weren't smart enough to realize that maybe housing prices doubling in 1-2 years don't equate? Did someone make you buy a house at gunpoint?
I think it's the dot-com bubble all over again. But this time, it's coinciding with a worldwide economic depression, market saturation and shrinking venture capital. Therefore, it does not bode well for the copy-cat startups and investors.
Alot of the big venture raised were from the heydays of 1999-2001, when the funds had 10 year lifespan. Those are expiring now/soon. Recently, venture fund raising is down 50% from last quarter, close to 2009 lows. http://venturebeat.com/2010/08/11/vc-portfolios-improve-in-q.... So venture is definitely shrinking.
Although startups nowadays require less capital, there are also fewer (niche) markets to go into these days, as those have already been filled up. So startups have to compete for the same niche market. Look at ycombinator's 3 (!!) social mail plugin companies (rapportive, xobni, etacts) (in pg's defense, those company founders chose to pivot and cannibalize the same market) And look at techstar/ycombinator/funded institues: They have alot of overlapping generic startups.
And with platforms becoming ever so dominant (twitter, facebook, google), startups can't compete in the same massive market.
So there will be lots of startup death as funds run dry and economy gets worse. As dave mcclure recently pronounced, "90% of you will fail". But the important thing is to know that, and to hunker down and focus on surviving.