You're mixing hindsight with foresight. It's never obvious at the time what will bring about the next recession. It also doesn't have to be a single factor that causes a recession. The previous two could be majorly tied to a single cause but the 1990 recession cannot. It was triggered by the savings and loans crisis but was also tied to ballooning deficits and an inflated real estate market. (sound familiar?) The hairline cracks of the next recession could already be happening but those that see them will remain quiet as it is in everyone's best interest to project confidence in the market until the point where it all falls down. I was flipping houses before the housing bubble burst and things didn't quite feel right but everyone just kept chugging right along like it was going to be that way for ever. I started feeling uneasy when, at one point, there were 9 large subdivisions being built at the same time. "Where are all these people coming from?" Nowhere, that's where they were coming from. But I remained confident up until the day when I got stuck with 11 adjustable rate mortgages that almost doubled overnight. My gut feeling is we're heading into a recession but I'm probably more overly cautious than I used to be.