Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
186 comments
Large, squid like aliens will show up and announce they have been grooming humanity for the last 4,000 or so years to manufacture and repair microelectronics for them.
Do they let us work remote?
Galactically-feared aliens arrive on Earth and come up with a diabolical plan to force us to work 4 hours a day, three days a week with full medical, dental, and prescription coverage along with 60 days of vacation per year.
The rest of the galaxy scratches their...whatevers...wondering why the humans throw down their tools and rush to work for the invaders.
The rest of the galaxy scratches their...whatevers...wondering why the humans throw down their tools and rush to work for the invaders.
I'd buy that book.
I actually saw this recently (within the last week) on /r/hfy. (Not the book, just a short story. The aliens were going to kidnap a million humans, work them 20 hours a week for five years, then send each one home with a kilo of gold. If we didn't agree, they were going to destroy the earth. They thought they were being big nasty conquerors, imposing harsh terms...)
The Coworking Space at the End of the Universe.
So far. Transplanting things to a different biosphere is just so.. icky.
Explains the shortage as well as Apple letting people fix their own stuff.
Sad to say this sounds nowhere near as bad as the scenarios at the low end of my estimation error bars for how next year could go.
So long as we get to make a heroic - if futile - last stand, I wouldn’t even be that upset. At least we’d know we are not alone.
Don't be so hasty... let's find out what the pay and benefits are, first.
I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment.
Remote work is here to stay.
Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now).
Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pandemic was.
The culture wars will continue humming away in the foreground, distracting us from our declining quality of life and the transfer of wealth from the lower and middle classes taking place before our eyes.
Overall, it will get worse as our current predicament perhaps needs to.
Remote work is here to stay.
Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now).
Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pandemic was.
The culture wars will continue humming away in the foreground, distracting us from our declining quality of life and the transfer of wealth from the lower and middle classes taking place before our eyes.
Overall, it will get worse as our current predicament perhaps needs to.
I'd argue that rents will fall as large volumes of "investment" housing starts to hit the market. The end of a decade (almost 2, actually) of quantitative easing and and resulting increase in interest rates is the death knell for asset value-derived investment. This includes any stock where the value is not correlated with revenue.
I purposely avoided the asset bubble collapse because it's all so volatile and overhwelming right now. But you're right - and it would quite likley crater rents.
> large volumes of "investment" housing starts to hit the market
Are people currently not living in this housing? How much un-lived in property is there? I don't see much, if any, in Houston. But house purchase prices here still doubled in the past few years.
Are people currently not living in this housing? How much un-lived in property is there? I don't see much, if any, in Houston. But house purchase prices here still doubled in the past few years.
Don't most just get fixed rate mortgages?
>I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing
There is going to be an excess supply shock in first quarter of q4. Most of the suppliers are over stocked up to such an extent and most 3PLs are over capacity and unable to take up any new clients.
And not sure how "fake" the inflation is. The cost of container from china was $1k before pandemic. Now its $10k-$20k. Though rates are falling back its not enough https://www.statista.com/statistics/1250636/global-container...
There is going to be an excess supply shock in first quarter of q4. Most of the suppliers are over stocked up to such an extent and most 3PLs are over capacity and unable to take up any new clients.
And not sure how "fake" the inflation is. The cost of container from china was $1k before pandemic. Now its $10k-$20k. Though rates are falling back its not enough https://www.statista.com/statistics/1250636/global-container...
>I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment.
The inflation is not fake. It is being caused the but incredible amount of dollars that have been created in the last 2 years. There were $12 trillion added to the money supply in May 2020 alone, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL. Before May 2020 There were only $4.7 trillion in circulation in April 2020. This the text book case of inflation.
The inflation is not fake. It is being caused the but incredible amount of dollars that have been created in the last 2 years. There were $12 trillion added to the money supply in May 2020 alone, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL. Before May 2020 There were only $4.7 trillion in circulation in April 2020. This the text book case of inflation.
> I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment.
> Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now).
I think these two contradict each other. Inflation is fake, but interest rates rise?
> Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pandemic was.
Yup.
> Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now).
I think these two contradict each other. Inflation is fake, but interest rates rise?
> Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pandemic was.
Yup.
Rents going up (faster than usual) is nearly a per se inflationary environment for most Americans due to rent being a high % of income. You're arguing that would happen, but you'd label it a deflationary environment?
But don't most people just get fixed rates?
You’re spot on! Except for the deflation part.
Hackernews comments will continue to devolve and become more Reddit-like on the whole. Someone will begin working on an alternative that will make them rich in 2024.
> alternative that will make them rich
Given that HN doesn't make money, I doubt that any alternative would either.
Given that HN doesn't make money, I doubt that any alternative would either.
It helps make money for its owners. It's not here for charity.
yes by primarily acting as an advertising platform for ycombinator companies /thought leaders involved there as well, although we do get other awesome content here and the community is awesome, so i can say that i don't mind paying that "fee" to be able to enjoy this site.
CodeGlitch(1)
Countries will look for viable Small Modular Reactor designs that aren't too expensive. If they succeed, it will kickstart a huge nuclear renaissance and whoever can supply the finished reactors fast will make a lot of money on it. If not, the entire technology will probably be dead (in the civilian sector) forever.
Some of the longevity trials will show significant reduction of epigenetic age in humans. I am almost sure that TRIIM-X will. That is pretty close to the first flight of the Wright brothers, only in the anti-aging field.
During the next 10 or so years, all the debt-fueled spending is going to bite us back hard.
We might have a new round of Yellow Vests in Europe if consumer prices of electricity and fuels go up again. If such protests really happen, governments will crack down on social networks heavy-handedly.
The digital giants will open up their app stores voluntarily to escape antitrust prosecution.
Some of the longevity trials will show significant reduction of epigenetic age in humans. I am almost sure that TRIIM-X will. That is pretty close to the first flight of the Wright brothers, only in the anti-aging field.
During the next 10 or so years, all the debt-fueled spending is going to bite us back hard.
We might have a new round of Yellow Vests in Europe if consumer prices of electricity and fuels go up again. If such protests really happen, governments will crack down on social networks heavy-handedly.
The digital giants will open up their app stores voluntarily to escape antitrust prosecution.
>During the next 10 or so years, all the debt-fueled spending is going to bite us back hard.
that's like saying it will happen eventually, which is not that helpful or useful of a prediction
that's like saying it will happen eventually, which is not that helpful or useful of a prediction
Timing the market is a hopeless task. We do not know yet if our treasuries will make an attempt to wean themselves off cheap credit or not.
I am afraid they won't, but even then the curve may vary a lot.
I know this isn't a very good prediction. The only thing that bothers me is that the contemporary ruling class seems to operate as if the borrowing could go on forever.
I am afraid they won't, but even then the curve may vary a lot.
I know this isn't a very good prediction. The only thing that bothers me is that the contemporary ruling class seems to operate as if the borrowing could go on forever.
What precisely is going to stop it? Where else is the safety-seeking money going to go? Even the periodic threat of a gratuitous default doesn't rattle US bond prices.
The U.S. might be a special case, with the dollar being a reserve currency.
Italian lira was weak and Italians used to buy a lot of property. Until today, an average Italian family has much more real estate than an average German family.
Polish zloty went into a tailspin in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In 1995, they decided to start again and remove four zeros off the new zloty. IDK what happened to all the debt held in non-zlotys.
Italian lira was weak and Italians used to buy a lot of property. Until today, an average Italian family has much more real estate than an average German family.
Polish zloty went into a tailspin in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In 1995, they decided to start again and remove four zeros off the new zloty. IDK what happened to all the debt held in non-zlotys.
- Companies that are buying up large swaths of real estate figure out that "money pit" is a real thing, and owning a thousand houses isn't a good way to make hard cash. They start merging with one another to stave off a crash.
- A new social media company starts to gain traction. Because that's what happens every few years.
- People start unloading their streaming subscriptions when they realize that for many people, they cost more than cable or satellite. But rather than go back to the other delivery methods, they just consume less video. Streaming companies start to cannibalize one another, and set up for merging.
- My wife will continue to complain about her neck pain, but refuse to stop scrolling through Instagram hunched over on the toilet. She will continue to try to hide this from me.
- A new social media company starts to gain traction. Because that's what happens every few years.
- People start unloading their streaming subscriptions when they realize that for many people, they cost more than cable or satellite. But rather than go back to the other delivery methods, they just consume less video. Streaming companies start to cannibalize one another, and set up for merging.
- My wife will continue to complain about her neck pain, but refuse to stop scrolling through Instagram hunched over on the toilet. She will continue to try to hide this from me.
My old landlord was a couple who owned 11 houses, 10 of which they rented out.
Over the couple of years we lived there, we discovered they weren't even all that rich... but they sure will be. They own the house they live in, and rent out their other houses. It started with them renting out a house to help pay their mortgage, and then they found ways to accumulate mortgages for more homes.
Clever but I suspect they were stressed out pretty big time, too. If any one of them failed, it would collapse in full domino style. But if it works (and it surely will), they retire fully owning 11 properties in their name, for whatever they might want to do with them.
Over the couple of years we lived there, we discovered they weren't even all that rich... but they sure will be. They own the house they live in, and rent out their other houses. It started with them renting out a house to help pay their mortgage, and then they found ways to accumulate mortgages for more homes.
Clever but I suspect they were stressed out pretty big time, too. If any one of them failed, it would collapse in full domino style. But if it works (and it surely will), they retire fully owning 11 properties in their name, for whatever they might want to do with them.
My landlord also owns 11 multi family buildings. He bought them in the early 2000s, in a rapidly gentrifying neighborhood on the Brooklyn waterfront, for 100-200k each. Each building is now worth 2-5million and he charges 2,800-4,000 per unit (in 6-8 unit buildings) for rent. He told me that he’ll never sell and will keep using leverage to buy up more buildings.
My grandmother’a brother bough 2 buildings in the same neighborhood in the early 90s for even less and had them fully paid off by 2000. Each one was making him 20k a month before he sold them for >3 million to developers who will come in and jack up rents by 50-100% on the old people that have been living there the past 15-20 years.
My grandmother’a brother bough 2 buildings in the same neighborhood in the early 90s for even less and had them fully paid off by 2000. Each one was making him 20k a month before he sold them for >3 million to developers who will come in and jack up rents by 50-100% on the old people that have been living there the past 15-20 years.
My heuristic is to extend pre-2022 trends outward:
Higher stock market even though everyone keeps calling it a bubble
More inflation, but not as much gain in the CPI as 2021
Strong GDP growth, same for corporate profits
Big tech gets bigger; Facebook, Tesla , Amazon, Google Microsoft stock keep going up.
No anti-trust action against big tech companies
No bursting of 'higher ed bubble' despite Covid
US dollar continues to be strong
Bezos, Musk remain richest men alive
Biden wealth tax fails
Fed raises rates maybe twice; bond market and stock market unperturbed
Higher real estate prices in spite of insistence of it being a bubble
More political division and unrest online, people are angrier than ever at each other online
Covid never goes away although daily case counts will remain below 2021 highs
Higher stock market even though everyone keeps calling it a bubble
More inflation, but not as much gain in the CPI as 2021
Strong GDP growth, same for corporate profits
Big tech gets bigger; Facebook, Tesla , Amazon, Google Microsoft stock keep going up.
No anti-trust action against big tech companies
No bursting of 'higher ed bubble' despite Covid
US dollar continues to be strong
Bezos, Musk remain richest men alive
Biden wealth tax fails
Fed raises rates maybe twice; bond market and stock market unperturbed
Higher real estate prices in spite of insistence of it being a bubble
More political division and unrest online, people are angrier than ever at each other online
Covid never goes away although daily case counts will remain below 2021 highs
> No bursting of 'higher ed bubble' despite Covid
Do you mean students will keep taking on debt to go to school? Or tuition prices will keep going up? Or both?
Do you mean students will keep taking on debt to go to school? Or tuition prices will keep going up? Or both?
both
previously (compiled by csomar here[0]):
[0]2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068
2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596
2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859
2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988
2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767
2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723
2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370
2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201
2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023
2010: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
And predictions for the decade:
2020s: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21941278
2010s: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
[0]2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068
2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596
2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859
2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988
2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767
2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723
2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370
2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201
2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023
2010: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
And predictions for the decade:
2020s: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21941278
2010s: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
Going back a few years, it seems like people were taking their predictions more seriously. Now, most commenters are just making silly joke predictions. I wonder what that says about our times. Maybe people feel less and less confident about their ability to predict the future.
Things don’t make as much sense as they used to.
In the first comment for 2020:
"We will have driverless cars but not mainstream yet. Trucking jobs in the US won't go away as Andrew Yang is predicting them to be."
I'm guessing Andrew Yang wouldn't have expected an operational truck shortage like we have right now.
"We will have driverless cars but not mainstream yet. Trucking jobs in the US won't go away as Andrew Yang is predicting them to be."
I'm guessing Andrew Yang wouldn't have expected an operational truck shortage like we have right now.
The companies that are double or triple ordering this year, in fear of suppliers not delivering, are going to get a lot of stuff in 2022. In other words, the shortages and empty shells will be followed by fire sales and stories of companies destroying their inventories.
* Queen Elizabeth II will die, prompting complaints about how much coverage the BBC will give the event.
* A large earthquake (>6) in the SF Bay Area.
* COVID cases will reduce but not enough to rescind mask-wearing rules.
* A large "stablecoin" will crash but the crypto market will (unfortunately, probably) recover reasonably quickly.
* The NFT craze will not persist.
* In the US, the GOP will make significant political gains primarily through gerrymandering.
* A large earthquake (>6) in the SF Bay Area.
* COVID cases will reduce but not enough to rescind mask-wearing rules.
* A large "stablecoin" will crash but the crypto market will (unfortunately, probably) recover reasonably quickly.
* The NFT craze will not persist.
* In the US, the GOP will make significant political gains primarily through gerrymandering.
Obviously some people will complain to the BBC, but I really don’t think that will be much of a thing. It will be an undeniably monumental event.
It will definitely be big news when it happens. Her death doesn't occur in a void - the throne will have someone else's cheeks assigned to it.
It will be impossible to not talk about the future of the monarchy when she dies, next year or in 2028. It would be BBC's duty to report extensively on it.
It will be impossible to not talk about the future of the monarchy when she dies, next year or in 2028. It would be BBC's duty to report extensively on it.
> COVID cases will reduce but not enough to rescind mask-wearing rules.
In a lot of the US there aren't really mask requirements anymore outside of maybe hospitals. I moved to Seattle from Utah recently and the change in attitudes is pretty astonishing.
In a lot of the US there aren't really mask requirements anymore outside of maybe hospitals. I moved to Seattle from Utah recently and the change in attitudes is pretty astonishing.
> I moved to Seattle from Utah recently and the change in attitudes is pretty astonishing.
Could you be more specific here? What's the difference in attitudes between Seattle and Utah?
Could you be more specific here? What's the difference in attitudes between Seattle and Utah?
No one cares if you don't wear a mask in Utah (there are also no mask mandates for most places, hospitals might be an exception, and some workers still need to wear them I think) and you're not even allowed to sit in a coffee shop without being vaccinated in Seattle.
It's on the surface like this in Seattle, but not really. Places I visit have silently dropped real enforcement, and no one bats an eye if there's folks without masks. Of course the fact it's all theater still makes it annoying.
Satoshi Nakamoto will be revealed to be an extraterrestrial info-warrior sent to destroy humanity by tricking us into turning all our carbon fuels into random numbers. This will happen sometime in April.
Inflation rate would be worse than expected, between 7-10%
Fed will raise rates after mid-term only.
Stock market will not crash until after Fed raises rates
Supply chain bottlenecks will continue into 2023
FAANG will continue to grow bigger. Regulation will not be finalized.
SaaS book will falter as FAANG make SaaS business models a feature.
M&A of SaaS companies being absorbed into FAANGs will happen
Cloud will move to the Edge. 5G enabled devices will gather traction.
CRIPSR related news will make more headlines
People will get bored of Metaverse related news
Roblox will become bigger
Infrastructure and Manufacturing in US will become cool again
Internet will become more balkanized globally
People will come back to offices. Remote workers will be disadvantaged
COVID will die out before Q2 2022
Fed will raise rates after mid-term only.
Stock market will not crash until after Fed raises rates
Supply chain bottlenecks will continue into 2023
FAANG will continue to grow bigger. Regulation will not be finalized.
SaaS book will falter as FAANG make SaaS business models a feature.
M&A of SaaS companies being absorbed into FAANGs will happen
Cloud will move to the Edge. 5G enabled devices will gather traction.
CRIPSR related news will make more headlines
People will get bored of Metaverse related news
Roblox will become bigger
Infrastructure and Manufacturing in US will become cool again
Internet will become more balkanized globally
People will come back to offices. Remote workers will be disadvantaged
COVID will die out before Q2 2022
Everything in your post looked legitimate until you said COVID will die out in Q2 2022.
Perhaps I am interpreting this sentence incorrectly and you meant the "economic effects of COVID will die out in Q2 2022"?
Perhaps I am interpreting this sentence incorrectly and you meant the "economic effects of COVID will die out in Q2 2022"?
Yes, herd immunity will happen through both natural infection or vaccine induced infection. People will adjust and come back to work, school and economic activities.
> herd immunity will happen through both natural infection or vaccine induced infection.
People can catch covid more than once AND you can still transmit it when vaccinated. What leads you to believe herd immunity is even possible?
People can catch covid more than once AND you can still transmit it when vaccinated. What leads you to believe herd immunity is even possible?
This isn't really far fetched. If by then all the anti-vaxxers have caught it, then only the ones who suffer few or no symptoms will remain. The ones that were destined to have the worst effects of Covid will eventually either be vaccinated or dead.
SaaS book will falter as FAANG make SaaS business models a feature
Can you expand on this? It seems as if even DTC businesses are being consolidated as well
Can you expand on this? It seems as if even DTC businesses are being consolidated as well
Adam Selipsky of AWS has clearly said he will move more into applications. We will hear more in ReInvent shortly. Most SaaS runs on Cloud. Once the SaaS valuations in market reaches more normal levels, FAANGs will swoop in to buy. Core IaaS/PaaS is a commodity.
People will make a big deal about a date that is all zeros and twos. Eg. 02/02/2022 or 02/20/2022 or some other variation.
Other people will make fun of weird Murrican date ordering and propose some other date.
Arguments will be had about which datetime(s) should be considered palindromic given the different orderings, or some such nonsense.
Other people will make fun of weird Murrican date ordering and propose some other date.
Arguments will be had about which datetime(s) should be considered palindromic given the different orderings, or some such nonsense.
While silly, I think this absolutely will happen as you describe. It would be too hard for Twitter to resist.
I don't even mean this pejoratively. 22/02/2022 will be a thing, and it will spark up the arguments in your prediction.
I don't even mean this pejoratively. 22/02/2022 will be a thing, and it will spark up the arguments in your prediction.
Housing price collapse in the USA. It will be the 2008 collapse all over again. Everyone is predicting further increases with the same gusto as someone living in 2006. And they may be right for a time. But the stilts these home prices are walking on are even taller and shakier than they were in 2006 when everyone was sure housing was up up up forever.
There's bunch of foreclosures slated for 2022 that were put on hold due to covid. Something is going to pop, and it will pop hard.
There's bunch of foreclosures slated for 2022 that were put on hold due to covid. Something is going to pop, and it will pop hard.
The most important event looming, and it may be as early as 2022, but no further away than 2025, is a hot war between the West (5 eyes, Europe, Japan) and one or more of China, Russia, Iran.
That war will be so major that its onset will completely change all sorts of other things like chip availability, metals availability, motor vehicle production, phone sales, computer sales, house prices, etc, etc, etc.
That war will be so major that its onset will completely change all sorts of other things like chip availability, metals availability, motor vehicle production, phone sales, computer sales, house prices, etc, etc, etc.
I'll bet zero hot wars between the named major powers emerge before 2030. At least not directly. The most I'd be willing to allow is some sort of proxy conflict. As for cold/warm wars between the named major powers... they're already ongoing. Network/information/trade war is well underway and will not let up for some time.
I hope/think more countries will start to compete for remote workers and add more favorable policies to have them move. Like Portugal.
https://twitter.com/tomazstolfa/status/1454441367359430663
https://twitter.com/tomazstolfa/status/1454441367359430663
A physical in ear device which does real time translation of almost all major languages.
A successful drone assassination of a world leader by terrorists.
Massive explosion in international tourism at some point.
Great leaps in biotechnology which has surprising implications.
Increasing geopolitical tensions due to a flexing China and insecure America.
A successful drone assassination of a world leader by terrorists.
Massive explosion in international tourism at some point.
Great leaps in biotechnology which has surprising implications.
Increasing geopolitical tensions due to a flexing China and insecure America.
loving that ear device
Was it not google pixel buds? 4 years ago: https://support.google.com/googlepixelbuds/answer/7573100?hl...
They're gonna find intelligent life up there on the moon
And The Canterbury Tales will shoot up to the top of the best-seller list
And stay there for twenty-seven weeks
And the Chicago Cubs will beat every team in the league
And the Tampa Bay Bucs will make it all the way through January
The stars are gonna spell out the answers to tomorrow's crosswords And the Phillips Corporation will admit that they've made an awful mistake And Bill Gates will single-handedly spearhead the Heaven 17 revival And the Chicago Cubs will beat every team in the league And the Tampa Bay Bucs will take it all the way to the top
And I will love you again I will love you like I used to
The stars are gonna spell out the answers to tomorrow's crosswords And the Phillips Corporation will admit that they've made an awful mistake And Bill Gates will single-handedly spearhead the Heaven 17 revival And the Chicago Cubs will beat every team in the league And the Tampa Bay Bucs will take it all the way to the top
And I will love you again I will love you like I used to
Trust of public in governments and media fall dawn rapidly, because people will get more angry and tired of constant restrictions, massive surveillance and rising prices of everything. Eventually civil war here and there. Tendencies of green pass and deals will fall, because people simple will not be rich that much to afford "care to nature", priorities will be more focused on survive (financially, mentally, physically...). Later (probably not 2022) being off-line and living in communities became new way of living.
I think distrust in governments has already peaked, at least in Europe. The right conservatives have lost votes in the last elections. Also paradoxically Covid has proven conspiracy theorists wrong and further will since more anti-vaccination people will get seriously sick.
On the other hand disillusionment in governments will be greater especially from the progressives because of Climate Change. The latter will probably be pivotal and if both governments and economies fail to deliver, this will lead to disrupting changes in the way politics is done. In France there are already citizen councils since the Yellow vest protests (sparked by increased fuel taxes) and in Germany they are also being evaluated. I expect those to grow much stronger already in the upcoming year.
On the other hand disillusionment in governments will be greater especially from the progressives because of Climate Change. The latter will probably be pivotal and if both governments and economies fail to deliver, this will lead to disrupting changes in the way politics is done. In France there are already citizen councils since the Yellow vest protests (sparked by increased fuel taxes) and in Germany they are also being evaluated. I expect those to grow much stronger already in the upcoming year.
> proven conspiracy theorists wrong
the problem with conspiracies is that they don't require proof for their world-views!
the problem with conspiracies is that they don't require proof for their world-views!
That's true, it's mostly a feeling. On the other hand if looking at Qanon for instance. There are established politicians who kind of support it. I don't think they actually believe there are reptile people below the ground. I would assume it's rather a generic criticism of how things are going.
Define conspiracy.
Sorta predictions, sorta hopes...
GPT-4 or another huge language model like it will be released, and we will see diminishing returns continue to plateau.
Graph-based approaches in NLP will continue to grow in significance, with KGs, ontologies, and semantic graphs seeing growing adoption for their interpretability.
Model robustness in ML will probably remain a significant obstacle to productionization, holding back use-cases that need high reliability e.g. self-driving and front-facing chatbots.
Reinforcement Learning may see increased research focus for applications in NLP and user interaction.
GPT-4 or another huge language model like it will be released, and we will see diminishing returns continue to plateau.
Graph-based approaches in NLP will continue to grow in significance, with KGs, ontologies, and semantic graphs seeing growing adoption for their interpretability.
Model robustness in ML will probably remain a significant obstacle to productionization, holding back use-cases that need high reliability e.g. self-driving and front-facing chatbots.
Reinforcement Learning may see increased research focus for applications in NLP and user interaction.
> GPT-4 or another huge language model like it will be released, and we will see diminishing returns continue to plateau.
It was my understanding that GPT-3 showed pretty well that the returns are not dimishing but rather surprisingly still scaling along with data rather nicely.
It was my understanding that GPT-3 showed pretty well that the returns are not dimishing but rather surprisingly still scaling along with data rather nicely.
Figure 3.8 in the GPT-3 paper (SuperGLUE Performance) pretty clearly shows a plateau in performance, with the increase in performance from 13B to 175B parameters (13.5x params, +6 score) not being significantly different from the increase between 6.7B to 13B (1.9x params, +4 score).
Social media-reality and outside-your-window reality will finally diverge so much people will begin to notice.
They won't notice because the dopamine reinforcement of media-reality is too large. Media and marketing is just hacking the circuits of the brain that we all have.
hahaha nooo. They won't notice!
- Apple will release its VR headset, significantly boosting the already growing interest in XR for entertainment and productivity. Combined with Meta's developments and marketing, the concept of the "metaverse" will enter average Americans' lexicon, but it will be overhyped relative to its current maturity level. However, this new hardware and increased interest and will spur real innovation and commerce, resulting in new applications and companies that will have a significant impact years in the future.
- AR headsets will still to be too expensive for consumers, but Microsoft's Hololens 2 will continue to see adoption for high-end industrial applications.
- Society will continue transitioning toward living with Covid as an endemic disease, and as the severity of outbreaks decrease, life will continue its slow approach back to normalcy.
- The S&P 500 will see modest gains with the tech sector doing particularly well.
- AR headsets will still to be too expensive for consumers, but Microsoft's Hololens 2 will continue to see adoption for high-end industrial applications.
- Society will continue transitioning toward living with Covid as an endemic disease, and as the severity of outbreaks decrease, life will continue its slow approach back to normalcy.
- The S&P 500 will see modest gains with the tech sector doing particularly well.
- Gross' proposal to remove the GIL from Python is accepted;
- Speculative Inlining Smalltalk Architecture (Sista) for the Cog VM gets finished. Squeak and Pharo become much faster;
- Existence of a massive 9th planet in the outer solar system is confirmed. Women go on demonstrations so the IAU gives it a female name. Name of African deity chosen, Yemọja, a major water spirit from the Yoruba religion;
- China announces deadlines for a manned mission to the Moon;
- Kamala Harris becomes first female US president, after Joe Biden passes away;
- WHO announces discovery of Covid-19 Omega strain;
- Whistleblower reveals NSA is collecting the bookmarks, passwords, ID numbers and passport numbers stolen by Microsoft Edge, as revealed in https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2021/11/is-microsoft-...
- Speculative Inlining Smalltalk Architecture (Sista) for the Cog VM gets finished. Squeak and Pharo become much faster;
- Existence of a massive 9th planet in the outer solar system is confirmed. Women go on demonstrations so the IAU gives it a female name. Name of African deity chosen, Yemọja, a major water spirit from the Yoruba religion;
- China announces deadlines for a manned mission to the Moon;
- Kamala Harris becomes first female US president, after Joe Biden passes away;
- WHO announces discovery of Covid-19 Omega strain;
- Whistleblower reveals NSA is collecting the bookmarks, passwords, ID numbers and passport numbers stolen by Microsoft Edge, as revealed in https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2021/11/is-microsoft-...
Love the shout out for Sista.
Focus on Covid will pivot to smallpox or something else.
Governments will crack down on NFTs with new regulation.
Volatility in the financial markets.
Some type of reaction to price increases in the US.
New types of remote jobs will emerge as technology matures around remote learning. Think Mesh for MS teams
Governments will crack down on NFTs with new regulation.
Volatility in the financial markets.
Some type of reaction to price increases in the US.
New types of remote jobs will emerge as technology matures around remote learning. Think Mesh for MS teams
2022 starts the Roaring 20s. Covid takes a backseat as new therapeutics become available. Remote work trend allows mass migration out of the Western states and into more rural areas.
Prices and employment stabilize as the Fed tapers QE.
TikTok launches new Metaverse product.
Biden steps down to allow for Kamala to take over.
Lebron James wins one final NBA championship and retires. Patriots return to win the Super Bowl and Alabama wins another College football championship.
Prices and employment stabilize as the Fed tapers QE.
TikTok launches new Metaverse product.
Biden steps down to allow for Kamala to take over.
Lebron James wins one final NBA championship and retires. Patriots return to win the Super Bowl and Alabama wins another College football championship.
>Biden steps down to allow for Kamala to take over.
I second this. Although I wonder if it will be Biden stepping down or the 25th Amendment being enacted. I think Kamala takes over after the mid-term elections. Her current poll numbers would necessitate them waiting at least until then.
I second this. Although I wonder if it will be Biden stepping down or the 25th Amendment being enacted. I think Kamala takes over after the mid-term elections. Her current poll numbers would necessitate them waiting at least until then.
Huawei/HiSilicon will start producing highend chips again, fabbed outside the reach of US sanctions. Probably first the chips sitting inside their 5G base stations.
This will mark a turning point in the US-China tech war.
This will mark a turning point in the US-China tech war.
It doesn't matter where they are fab'ed. There is so much pressure worldwide to not add them to communications infrastructure by those that depend on US defense (basically everyone outside of Russia an China) that, if anything, I think this situation gets worse for these two.
As it is now they (Huawei and ZTE) cannot fab the chips they have designed for their base stations, meaning the rollout of 5G in China is in danger.
Covid-19 will continue into Covid-22 (as in the same virus into 2022, not a new virus entirely).
Return to office will tick up more than expected
City -> Suburbs/Rural will revert back to pre-covid trend of Suburbs/Rural -> City
Return to office will tick up more than expected
City -> Suburbs/Rural will revert back to pre-covid trend of Suburbs/Rural -> City
- Malware crypto coin(s) will be created.
- James Webb telescope will miss its desired orbit.
- Brain drain in Australia.
- EU will not figure out its daylight savings issue.
- Fields medal will award another woman maybe Maryna Viazovska or Kaisa Matomäki
-An explicit example will be found (e.g. Merten's or Skewes's)
- World cup will be one of the biggest sport disasters.
- A heat dome near the Baltic Sea.
- Seeing Jim Morrison's work is in public domain (2022) for Canada & NZ. Causes the UK to pressure these two to switch to +70 policy before J. R. R. Tolkien works become public (2024).
-Covid causes more places to consider "die with dignity" policies.
- James Webb telescope will miss its desired orbit.
- Brain drain in Australia.
- EU will not figure out its daylight savings issue.
- Fields medal will award another woman maybe Maryna Viazovska or Kaisa Matomäki
-An explicit example will be found (e.g. Merten's or Skewes's)
- World cup will be one of the biggest sport disasters.
- A heat dome near the Baltic Sea.
- Seeing Jim Morrison's work is in public domain (2022) for Canada & NZ. Causes the UK to pressure these two to switch to +70 policy before J. R. R. Tolkien works become public (2024).
-Covid causes more places to consider "die with dignity" policies.
Continued Covid battles until it eventually becomes something like the flu.
In American politics, the pendulum swings back the other way and 'red' politicians defeat 'blue' politicians.
Inflation continues. Interest rates rise.
The Great Resignation continues until cash reserves are dried up and rising prices mandate people have a source of income. At that point, jobs become a little harder to get. Generally tough economic times.
Containerization continues to dominate IT headlines. This results in a fertile job market for IT practitioners.
In American politics, the pendulum swings back the other way and 'red' politicians defeat 'blue' politicians.
Inflation continues. Interest rates rise.
The Great Resignation continues until cash reserves are dried up and rising prices mandate people have a source of income. At that point, jobs become a little harder to get. Generally tough economic times.
Containerization continues to dominate IT headlines. This results in a fertile job market for IT practitioners.
On Good Judgment Open there is a question about where the Fed Funds Rate will be in January 2022. I have a blog post [1] tracking my forecast of this event. Currently I have the odds at:
* 0% chance the rate will be lower
* 98% chance the rate will be the same
* 2% chance the rate will be higher
[1] https://kayce.basqu.es/bets/january-2022-fed-funds-rate/
* 0% chance the rate will be lower
* 98% chance the rate will be the same
* 2% chance the rate will be higher
[1] https://kayce.basqu.es/bets/january-2022-fed-funds-rate/
Jan 2023 would be more interesting
Bitcoin bull due to inflation worries and bitcoin lack of intrinsic value means the only metric is FOMO, so if it goes up it goes up more.
To stabilise a high price long term you’d need additional countries adopting it, and they need to fix the climate impact.
Eventually Bitcoin will be a lacklustre investment like gold. Essentially cash-like but deflationary at heart. That’s if it succeeds. Or it will implode to nothing!
Eventually Bitcoin will be a lacklustre investment like gold. Essentially cash-like but deflationary at heart. That’s if it succeeds. Or it will implode to nothing!
[deleted]
My prediction is that the FOMO thing will work the other way and there will be a stampede out of bitcoin in a 1930s style crash.
Yes the FOMO does go both ways. Without a network problem it will still hold some value but could be less than 1% of current market traded price in that scenario but unlikely zero.
Politics: The environment will get a bigger slice of the political discussion, but nothing major will come out of it. North America will put everything on electric cars while neglecting everything else. Europe will do a lot more. The rest of the world won't do anything.
COVID: Governments will tighten the screws on unvaccinated people and nudge them agressively towards vaccination or isolation. It will make some people uneasy, and others will cheer for it.
Entertainment: Adam Driver will be cast in every blockbuster, sometimes more than once.
Technology: Big tech will build more of their own chips, mostly ARM chips. The Metaverse will fail to excite the crowd. The EU will isssue billion dollar antitrust fines.
COVID: Governments will tighten the screws on unvaccinated people and nudge them agressively towards vaccination or isolation. It will make some people uneasy, and others will cheer for it.
Entertainment: Adam Driver will be cast in every blockbuster, sometimes more than once.
Technology: Big tech will build more of their own chips, mostly ARM chips. The Metaverse will fail to excite the crowd. The EU will isssue billion dollar antitrust fines.
2022 is the year when the internet is going to morph, from an almost 100% human generated content to a 100% machine generated content.
CPI & PPI will remain high.
Despite that, central banks won't meaningfully tapper or raise rates (some have already started, and more will try, but soon they will revert to low/current rates).
Inequality will continue to get worse.
Despite that, wealth will not get taxed.
The Great Resignation will not happen (even though we're told it already is/has happened).
Despite that, central banks won't meaningfully tapper or raise rates (some have already started, and more will try, but soon they will revert to low/current rates).
Inequality will continue to get worse.
Despite that, wealth will not get taxed.
The Great Resignation will not happen (even though we're told it already is/has happened).
Prince Charles will die, followed shortly after by the Queen. King William will begin the process of ending the British monarchy.
Chris Pratt will be in the highest-grossing English-language film.
A novel virus worse than Covid will arise, and humanity will succeed in containing it, but at great cost.
Tampa Bay will lose in the Super Bowl.
Chris Pratt will be in the highest-grossing English-language film.
A novel virus worse than Covid will arise, and humanity will succeed in containing it, but at great cost.
Tampa Bay will lose in the Super Bowl.
Covid-19 is recognised as being endemic (here to stay).
Inconvenient behavioural changes like mask wearinng taper off. Proof of recent vaccination will still be required in public gathering places, and laws will be passed making vaccination mandatory in many occupations. Covid vaccination will be combined with influenza vaccination.
The realisation will become widespread that working age population in the developed world and East and South-east Asia is on a 20-year decline. (Government policy people already know this.) It won't change attitudes to immigration.
(Wishful thinking) The realisation will sink in that decarbonising electricity (and part of road transport) is only one-third of the job, and doing the other two-thirds will cost approximately 20 times as much, not twice as much. Everyone resolves to do it anyway.
The idea of global dimming (spraying sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere) to cool down the planet will go mainstream and be seriously planned.
Deep learning will be acknowledged as a dead end, but there will be no promising replacement.
Autonomous, low-speed road-going goods delivery vehicles will be trialed in an area being over 25% of the outer, suburban area of one major (top 150) North American city starting in or after '24.
Russia will continue its "North Korea" geo-political strategy (do crazy things, including actions that might harm its own interests. This is straight out of the game theory textbooks).
Inconvenient behavioural changes like mask wearinng taper off. Proof of recent vaccination will still be required in public gathering places, and laws will be passed making vaccination mandatory in many occupations. Covid vaccination will be combined with influenza vaccination.
The realisation will become widespread that working age population in the developed world and East and South-east Asia is on a 20-year decline. (Government policy people already know this.) It won't change attitudes to immigration.
(Wishful thinking) The realisation will sink in that decarbonising electricity (and part of road transport) is only one-third of the job, and doing the other two-thirds will cost approximately 20 times as much, not twice as much. Everyone resolves to do it anyway.
The idea of global dimming (spraying sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere) to cool down the planet will go mainstream and be seriously planned.
Deep learning will be acknowledged as a dead end, but there will be no promising replacement.
Autonomous, low-speed road-going goods delivery vehicles will be trialed in an area being over 25% of the outer, suburban area of one major (top 150) North American city starting in or after '24.
Russia will continue its "North Korea" geo-political strategy (do crazy things, including actions that might harm its own interests. This is straight out of the game theory textbooks).
> Deep learning will be acknowledged as a dead end
I don't disagree, but as soon as next year? Why do you think so?
I don't disagree, but as soon as next year? Why do you think so?
- tensions will rise between EU, the US (along with the UK and Australia), and China leading to more supply chain issues.
- crypto crash of 2022. Ethereum will switch to PoS, leading to a global wide sale of GPUs and miners are no longer a thing.
- maybe the stock market will crash similarly to 2022.
- crypto crash of 2022. Ethereum will switch to PoS, leading to a global wide sale of GPUs and miners are no longer a thing.
- maybe the stock market will crash similarly to 2022.
It will be exactly the same as 2021; covid cycles, market will be ok, crypto will fluctuate, inflation will rise slowly, interest rate will stay the same. Earth will continue to suffer with global warming. People are displaced with fires, floods and sea levels. Civil unrest in many poor countries as autocrats seize more power. And finally Trump will still think he can convince us he won the election, it wont be on twitter
Rent going up. I think that one's pretty safe.
Remote work will continue - maybe not as strong as during the lockdowns, but still much stronger than in 2019.
Covid will continue to be a problem. By the end of 2022, we won't be at a "new normal" that is any different from where we currently are. There will still be a war about mask mandates and vaccine mandates and vaccine booster mandates.
The 2022 elections will be very vicious, maybe even marked by violence, but in the end the Republicans will control at least one branch of Congress, most likely both.
There will be violence associated with the 2024 election cycle.
Oh, you wanted tech predictions?
GPT-3 continues to impress, but has a much harder time turning into something useful. The "doesn't actually understand what it's saying" problem is too big to fix. Systems that actually do understand and then generate appropriate text are stronger, but cannot be created by GPT-3-like methods.
We'll still mostly be on IPv4.
Nothing dramatic changes in chips or fabs. Nothing dramatic changes in self-driving vehicles. There will be some cool stuff in medical, though. Between Alzheimer's and cancer, there will be at least one major advance.
Remote work will continue - maybe not as strong as during the lockdowns, but still much stronger than in 2019.
Covid will continue to be a problem. By the end of 2022, we won't be at a "new normal" that is any different from where we currently are. There will still be a war about mask mandates and vaccine mandates and vaccine booster mandates.
The 2022 elections will be very vicious, maybe even marked by violence, but in the end the Republicans will control at least one branch of Congress, most likely both.
There will be violence associated with the 2024 election cycle.
Oh, you wanted tech predictions?
GPT-3 continues to impress, but has a much harder time turning into something useful. The "doesn't actually understand what it's saying" problem is too big to fix. Systems that actually do understand and then generate appropriate text are stronger, but cannot be created by GPT-3-like methods.
We'll still mostly be on IPv4.
Nothing dramatic changes in chips or fabs. Nothing dramatic changes in self-driving vehicles. There will be some cool stuff in medical, though. Between Alzheimer's and cancer, there will be at least one major advance.
- Big loans will be transacted in cryptocurrency due to concerns about inflation. This will become more commonplace.
- Large scale ransoms and hacks will continue. Driving fear to take cybersecurity more seriously.
- Distrust in mainstream media outlets will push users to siloed echo chamber platforms. Lower barriers to entry to develop the tech behind the platforms will allow them to grow rapidly.
- The metaverse will not get adoption but the signs of being the future of entertainment will be there.
- A significant breakthrough for brain computer interfaces will be released for gaming. (See Gabe Newell interview) Every big company starts racing to research BCI tech.
- EV startups productionizing for the first time will experience reliability and scalability issues. Tesla’s lead in industry will be apparent but competitors will start closing the gap.
- Large scale ransoms and hacks will continue. Driving fear to take cybersecurity more seriously.
- Distrust in mainstream media outlets will push users to siloed echo chamber platforms. Lower barriers to entry to develop the tech behind the platforms will allow them to grow rapidly.
- The metaverse will not get adoption but the signs of being the future of entertainment will be there.
- A significant breakthrough for brain computer interfaces will be released for gaming. (See Gabe Newell interview) Every big company starts racing to research BCI tech.
- EV startups productionizing for the first time will experience reliability and scalability issues. Tesla’s lead in industry will be apparent but competitors will start closing the gap.
The first major Assassination Politics[0] event, based on decentralized prediction markets.
[0] https://cryptome.org/ap.htm
[0] https://cryptome.org/ap.htm
That's very interesting. That and dead pools never really had a practical way to operate. But now they do.
Eventually it will happen, but I suspect that even before then, there will be some other added layer of plausible deniability come into existence.
Incidentally, I'm not sure why you provided that particular link. It's not very fashionable to post links on HN without first checking if they even work. Cryptome hasn't been around for more than a decade.
Your first part is spot on, though. Maybe not next year. But it will happen some time since all the technology is heading in a way that makes it quite possible.
Eventually it will happen, but I suspect that even before then, there will be some other added layer of plausible deniability come into existence.
Incidentally, I'm not sure why you provided that particular link. It's not very fashionable to post links on HN without first checking if they even work. Cryptome hasn't been around for more than a decade.
Your first part is spot on, though. Maybe not next year. But it will happen some time since all the technology is heading in a way that makes it quite possible.
The link works and they're alive. I'm curious on why it doesn't work for you.
Well, that is weird then.
I get:
403: Forbidden
This error message is generated when the web server is trying to access a file that does not exist or has been configured incorrectly
So I asked Google if they were still around, and one of the links says they no longer are. I think there was a time that they were actually taken offline, so that comment might very well be outdated.
Maybe the error is a country thing. I'm in Canada. I used to be able to see their site no problem years ago.
I get:
403: Forbidden
This error message is generated when the web server is trying to access a file that does not exist or has been configured incorrectly
So I asked Google if they were still around, and one of the links says they no longer are. I think there was a time that they were actually taken offline, so that comment might very well be outdated.
Maybe the error is a country thing. I'm in Canada. I used to be able to see their site no problem years ago.
- Unity Software will hit $400 per share.
- The first serious mass-market VR haptics glove will be announced. By the end of the decade, most newly purchased consumer VR headsets will use haptic gloves instead of controllers.
- At some point during the year, SpaceX's Starship will reach orbit and then land successfully, but SpaceX will not attempt to send anything to Mars yet.
- Another machine learning model will go viral, generating a similar amount of excitement as GPT-3.
- Most people will still be wearing masks in Bay Area grocery stores at the end of the year.
- In 2022 or 2023, a disease that is not Covid will sweep through the world. The phrase "twin pandemics" will emerge and become popular.
- Republicans will win big in U.S. midterm elections.
- US media outlets will identify a surge in far right, nationalist sentiment among young people, with Nick Fuentes being a central figure.
- Crypto will become politicized. By the end of the year, it will be universally felt that support for crypto suggests right-wing sentiment.
- The first serious mass-market VR haptics glove will be announced. By the end of the decade, most newly purchased consumer VR headsets will use haptic gloves instead of controllers.
- At some point during the year, SpaceX's Starship will reach orbit and then land successfully, but SpaceX will not attempt to send anything to Mars yet.
- Another machine learning model will go viral, generating a similar amount of excitement as GPT-3.
- Most people will still be wearing masks in Bay Area grocery stores at the end of the year.
- In 2022 or 2023, a disease that is not Covid will sweep through the world. The phrase "twin pandemics" will emerge and become popular.
- Republicans will win big in U.S. midterm elections.
- US media outlets will identify a surge in far right, nationalist sentiment among young people, with Nick Fuentes being a central figure.
- Crypto will become politicized. By the end of the year, it will be universally felt that support for crypto suggests right-wing sentiment.
- Republicans will win big in U.S. midterm elections.
- US media outlets will identify a surge in far right, nationalist sentiment among young people, with Nick Fuentes being a central figure.
I agree with this first point for the same reason I disagree with the second. I think people are generally done with social media fueled extremes.
I think the Trump brand is done and the progressive agenda will be voted into a minority. I think people will be voting for more Republicans than Democrats in 2022 but the real winners from either party will be centrists/moderates talking about budgets.
- US media outlets will identify a surge in far right, nationalist sentiment among young people, with Nick Fuentes being a central figure.
I agree with this first point for the same reason I disagree with the second. I think people are generally done with social media fueled extremes.
I think the Trump brand is done and the progressive agenda will be voted into a minority. I think people will be voting for more Republicans than Democrats in 2022 but the real winners from either party will be centrists/moderates talking about budgets.
There will be more slow "disclosure" of UFO/UAP life
[deleted]
I would love for this to become a regular thing on HN. And it would be even more wonderful if we had a standard template where we expressed our predictions in probabilities.
and some type of score keeping for who gets things right over time.. to know who are the bellwethers
Record-breaking heatwaves in 2022. The same in 2023 and 2024.
I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla gets their self driving software to a human level within the next 5 years. And that this will be a huge wake-up call for mankind. To think about the future in the face of AI.
I often watch videos of people who drive with FSD for the first time. Those are the most intense reactions to a product I can remember.
If one day we wake up and see self driving cars all around us, we will start thinking about how the world will look like when everything is automated. This will be a huge challenge and adventure.
I often watch videos of people who drive with FSD for the first time. Those are the most intense reactions to a product I can remember.
If one day we wake up and see self driving cars all around us, we will start thinking about how the world will look like when everything is automated. This will be a huge challenge and adventure.
I would actually expect the opposite - that FSD gets banned in the short term because mistakes are a. inevitable and b. super, super dangerous.
I think self driving cars only become safe when every vehicle is capable of self driving, and infrastructure is adapted accordingly.
happy to be proven wrong though!
I think self driving cars only become safe when every vehicle is capable of self driving, and infrastructure is adapted accordingly.
happy to be proven wrong though!
You could have made the same prediction for the past 6-7 years and you would have been wrong every time. Sure, it might happen some day but I don't know why 2022 should be different from 2021.
I have worked on some hard engineering problems in my life, where one could not have been sure if it is possible to find a solution. In my experience, when you get to a "From here on it is just more of the same" situation, that is a strong indicator that a solution will be found in the near future.
And that is the feeling I get when I watch FSD videos these days.
5 years ago, people were celebrating lane changes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7jNHFwZ3Ec
Nowadays, FSD drives through all kinds of weird scenarios:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LISLFHCPWrw
And people complain about specific situations FSD can not handle:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OT2H42k7Z1g
I'm pretty sure someone at Tesla sees this and thinks "Hmm.. we can solve this in a similar way we solved lane changes".
And that is the feeling I get when I watch FSD videos these days.
5 years ago, people were celebrating lane changes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7jNHFwZ3Ec
Nowadays, FSD drives through all kinds of weird scenarios:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LISLFHCPWrw
And people complain about specific situations FSD can not handle:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OT2H42k7Z1g
I'm pretty sure someone at Tesla sees this and thinks "Hmm.. we can solve this in a similar way we solved lane changes".
[deleted]
I expect Tesla to give up on driving by cameras, and simplier solutions requiring less processing power, but a more bespoke combination of hires maps, cameras, lidars, and other sensors, to acheive practical FSD before Telsa.
[deleted]
NY Mets will be out of contention by early June.
oh come on now, at least try :)
- Unsupervised pre-training of vision transformers goes mainstream
- An NFT platform reinvents DRM
- Apple teases AR devices (Late 22, spring 23)
- An NFT platform reinvents DRM
- Apple teases AR devices (Late 22, spring 23)
What’s the first one?
got some paper recs for that first one?
I know nobody care but in 2022 I will lose my job because France will mandate vaccination at work.
This is a problem easy to avoid.
Alternatively you could choose to lie in an hospital bed with a plastic tube raping you orally non-stop 24/7 for four entire months as somebody that I know, but I would humbly suggest you to take any necessary measure so this never, ever, happens to you (or to one of your beloved ones). Don't be another stupid victim.
Alternatively you could choose to lie in an hospital bed with a plastic tube raping you orally non-stop 24/7 for four entire months as somebody that I know, but I would humbly suggest you to take any necessary measure so this never, ever, happens to you (or to one of your beloved ones). Don't be another stupid victim.
What a frightening false dichotomy.
[deleted]
I got COVID in January. 2 or 3 days in bed, I was at work the 7th day.
Sorry for your friend.
FWIW I know more people with adverse effects from the vaccine than of COVID, see my other response below.
Sorry for your friend.
FWIW I know more people with adverse effects from the vaccine than of COVID, see my other response below.
> I know more people with adverse effects from the vaccine than of COVID,
Unlikely, as we know that more than 5 millions of people suffered the annoying adverse effect of being killed by Covid, but if you have meet an equivalent number of people suffering a worse fate because the vaccines:
1) Congratulations, your social life is legendary and you must be the ultimate animal party. I'm really jealous.
2) Please write a scientific article in Nature, Science or whatever. I guarantee you that you will appear in all the breaking news from coast to coast in the entire planet if you can report a much minor number of cases.
Unlikely, as we know that more than 5 millions of people suffered the annoying adverse effect of being killed by Covid, but if you have meet an equivalent number of people suffering a worse fate because the vaccines:
1) Congratulations, your social life is legendary and you must be the ultimate animal party. I'm really jealous.
2) Please write a scientific article in Nature, Science or whatever. I guarantee you that you will appear in all the breaking news from coast to coast in the entire planet if you can report a much minor number of cases.
It is simply the truth, I'm not trying to win any argument here.
I don't know anybody that died of COVID, meanwhile a colleague of mine knows 6 persons that died of it. It's just random distribution I guess.
When I say KNOW, I mean someone that I have met at least once. Not someone that I have heard of.
I don't know anybody with long COVID either, nor even hospitalized for it. All the people I know that got COVID were very sick from 2 to 4 weeks then recovered on their own.
Among all these cases I was the least affected, I was sick less than a week and was able to get back to work (I'm not remote) after 7 days.
Here are the adverse effects I know from the vaccines, citing myself:
> I know one man with thrombosis and another one with Guillain Barré syndrome. My sister lost conscientiousness after the second shot. One of my cousin has extraordinary abundant periods. A colleague told me that his running times were much lower than before, he feels always tired since he got vaccinated.
I don't know anybody that died of COVID, meanwhile a colleague of mine knows 6 persons that died of it. It's just random distribution I guess.
When I say KNOW, I mean someone that I have met at least once. Not someone that I have heard of.
I don't know anybody with long COVID either, nor even hospitalized for it. All the people I know that got COVID were very sick from 2 to 4 weeks then recovered on their own.
Among all these cases I was the least affected, I was sick less than a week and was able to get back to work (I'm not remote) after 7 days.
Here are the adverse effects I know from the vaccines, citing myself:
> I know one man with thrombosis and another one with Guillain Barré syndrome. My sister lost conscientiousness after the second shot. One of my cousin has extraordinary abundant periods. A colleague told me that his running times were much lower than before, he feels always tired since he got vaccinated.
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants
Just out of curiosity, what is the reasoning behind you not getting vaccinated?
Basically I got COVID in January and I don't trust the safety of the vaccines.
If they're so safe, why big pharma and my government aren't liable?
Why all the censorship about adverse effects?
I know one man with thrombosis and another one with Guillain Barré syndrome. My sister lost conscientiousness after the second shot. One of my cousin has extraordinary abundant periods. A colleague told me that his running times were much lower than before, he feels always tired since he got vaccinated.
If they're so safe, why big pharma and my government aren't liable?
Why all the censorship about adverse effects?
I know one man with thrombosis and another one with Guillain Barré syndrome. My sister lost conscientiousness after the second shot. One of my cousin has extraordinary abundant periods. A colleague told me that his running times were much lower than before, he feels always tired since he got vaccinated.
I get the tired thing a lot.
That sounds scary. I'm vaccinated twice and I've decided that I won't mix vaccines for the booster. I'm staying with what I know isn't hurting me.
Yet I'm tracking a lot of my sporting data (I do at least 1h of bike riding a day) and noticed that I'm not as energetic as half a year ago. But this may also be because of an accident I had where I hurt my shoulder pretty bad and I'm also not eating as much in order to loose some weight. I've been thinking about analyzing all that data to find out when this "decay" started.
Yet I'm tracking a lot of my sporting data (I do at least 1h of bike riding a day) and noticed that I'm not as energetic as half a year ago. But this may also be because of an accident I had where I hurt my shoulder pretty bad and I'm also not eating as much in order to loose some weight. I've been thinking about analyzing all that data to find out when this "decay" started.
Kamala will take over the presidency when Biden's colonoscopy comes back with colon cancer.
Graphics cards will return to msrp prices.
Government action to fix container pileup issues (incentives for hiring more workers, penalties for containers in stacks for longer than x weeks) (it's my understanding this a manufactured crisis to increase profits)
James Webb will observe proof of alien life nearby
Donbas will become part of Russia
North Korea will start modernizing and trying to rehab their image
Graphics cards will return to msrp prices.
Government action to fix container pileup issues (incentives for hiring more workers, penalties for containers in stacks for longer than x weeks) (it's my understanding this a manufactured crisis to increase profits)
James Webb will observe proof of alien life nearby
Donbas will become part of Russia
North Korea will start modernizing and trying to rehab their image
> James Webb will observe proof of alien life nearby
Agree
Agree
- Covid still a thing, but much greater geographic divergence of vaxed and non-vaxed areas, leading to political and economic turmoil in those areas "left behind" and most impacted (more fun from Trump counties). Folks find that WFH in rural areas isn't all that great when everyone's sick and your kids' school is always closed
- Because of push-back on supply chain and other issues, Biden and Harris are massively unpopular for 2022, which causes a greater split among Dems (similar to Howard Dean in 2002, who broke with CW to become popular). Perhaps it's a young populist Dem who doesn't talk about "woke" stuff but squarely focuses on the unrest caused by bad cops, bad protestors (including on the right), and bad econ policy
- It's been predicted since forever, but a major revolution about Jan 6 and Trump, which the press won't care about
- Meta as the new 5G; whole lot of hype but too bulky to be useful
- Unionizing begins to impact professional sector, as employers want employees back in the office as the labor market tightens
- As disenchanted people are sick of online conspiracies, a reformist Social Contract-like movement takes hold
- Because of push-back on supply chain and other issues, Biden and Harris are massively unpopular for 2022, which causes a greater split among Dems (similar to Howard Dean in 2002, who broke with CW to become popular). Perhaps it's a young populist Dem who doesn't talk about "woke" stuff but squarely focuses on the unrest caused by bad cops, bad protestors (including on the right), and bad econ policy
- It's been predicted since forever, but a major revolution about Jan 6 and Trump, which the press won't care about
- Meta as the new 5G; whole lot of hype but too bulky to be useful
- Unionizing begins to impact professional sector, as employers want employees back in the office as the labor market tightens
- As disenchanted people are sick of online conspiracies, a reformist Social Contract-like movement takes hold
Windows 11 and WSL2 will finally deliver the year of Linux on the desktop.
These are very loosely held convictions...
- COVID will still be here but be thought of a little more like the flu.
- There will be some devastating natural disasters that induce more people into taking climate change seriously.
- AI will slowly cover more ground into people's lives.
- Cryptocurrencies will continue to be overhyped.
- US political tensions will continue to get worse.
- China will have domestic growing pains in the next few years, maybe cut back on growth or stir up some more regional tensions.
- Inflation will slowly give way to deflation and then the stock market is going to plateau or dip for some prolonged time.
- Conservatives will win control of congress in 2022 and the following 2 years will be a lame duck session.
- Trump or DeSantis is going to be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024.
- 2024 will be a really bad election for both parties
- Housing prices will continue to rise and not be affected by deflation and this will only get worse without significant and good government intervention.
- A black swan event or two mini black swan events that drastically affects a lot of other predictions.
- COVID will still be here but be thought of a little more like the flu.
- There will be some devastating natural disasters that induce more people into taking climate change seriously.
- AI will slowly cover more ground into people's lives.
- Cryptocurrencies will continue to be overhyped.
- US political tensions will continue to get worse.
- China will have domestic growing pains in the next few years, maybe cut back on growth or stir up some more regional tensions.
- Inflation will slowly give way to deflation and then the stock market is going to plateau or dip for some prolonged time.
- Conservatives will win control of congress in 2022 and the following 2 years will be a lame duck session.
- Trump or DeSantis is going to be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024.
- 2024 will be a really bad election for both parties
- Housing prices will continue to rise and not be affected by deflation and this will only get worse without significant and good government intervention.
- A black swan event or two mini black swan events that drastically affects a lot of other predictions.
Why are you so big on deflation? I’m not seeing it.
* The FED will do everything it can to avoid raising interest rates, while trying to convince everyone they might have to do it at some point
* Mandatory vaccination in the US will be struck down in the Supreme Court
* There will be increasing dissonance between people who think Covid is still a thing and people who stopped caring
* Gold will break $2000/oz
* Cryptocurrency will continue to appreciate in value. NFTs will also still be around.. both making a lot of people on HN lose their sanity.
* A second country will announce accepting BTC as legal tender, driving a breakout in price. Several people on HN will post in the comments about how all cryptocurrency is a scam and trad-fi is better
* Young people will continue to 'peace out' of the job market, viewing it as a game for suckers. Companies that can't raise wages will increasingly go out of business.
* College applications submitted will decrease substantially nationwide
* 'What happened in 1971?' will pop up even more on social media
* A hipster farming movement will gain nationwide attention
* Mandatory vaccination in the US will be struck down in the Supreme Court
* There will be increasing dissonance between people who think Covid is still a thing and people who stopped caring
* Gold will break $2000/oz
* Cryptocurrency will continue to appreciate in value. NFTs will also still be around.. both making a lot of people on HN lose their sanity.
* A second country will announce accepting BTC as legal tender, driving a breakout in price. Several people on HN will post in the comments about how all cryptocurrency is a scam and trad-fi is better
* Young people will continue to 'peace out' of the job market, viewing it as a game for suckers. Companies that can't raise wages will increasingly go out of business.
* College applications submitted will decrease substantially nationwide
* 'What happened in 1971?' will pop up even more on social media
* A hipster farming movement will gain nationwide attention
Title should be "Ask HN: What are your* 2022 predictions?"
Bayern will win the UCL
Prices will rise, except lumber. Politicians will philander.
- Someone will create an AI that can generate artificially and unnatural looking sequences of sound and images that will make humans mega horny because it's hacking the human sexuality.
- The orange guy from the US will say something stupid
- Bitcoin
- People will not start liking Zuck more
- The rich will get richer
- In a final implosion Elon will say something so incredibly stupid that he'll get canceled indefinitely
- Software devs become the new "bankers". Everyone hates them.
- China will go full nationalism. Further evidence of genocide will be discovered
- COVID
- Self-driving cars will become the new norm but nobody gives a shit.
- Bikes are the new cars. Bike innovation incoming.
- Food delivery startups will cease to exist. Only the few that pay their workers super badly will continue to exist
- It's getting hot in here.
- The orange guy from the US will say something stupid
- Bitcoin
- People will not start liking Zuck more
- The rich will get richer
- In a final implosion Elon will say something so incredibly stupid that he'll get canceled indefinitely
- Software devs become the new "bankers". Everyone hates them.
- China will go full nationalism. Further evidence of genocide will be discovered
- COVID
- Self-driving cars will become the new norm but nobody gives a shit.
- Bikes are the new cars. Bike innovation incoming.
- Food delivery startups will cease to exist. Only the few that pay their workers super badly will continue to exist
- It's getting hot in here.
Actually, now that I'm thinking. It would be kinda revolutionary if Ape released the iBike that is a high tech and good looking ebike.
- Solar powered devices get a boost against a fear on a blackout
- Thus, Rasberry Pi's based MUD's/clients and light text games over web/telnet/ssh get a reissanance.
- COVID get worse in North-Pyrenees Europe, Spain will be used as the "Gold standard" on how to do the things well.
- Vaccines will be mandatory in German speaking countries as the magufos/alt-medicine hipppies headed the then-current events really wrong.
- Network support will be flakey because of device/chips' shortage, so "offline first" will be the motto then.
- Said that, Usenet/Mail and similar asynchronous comms will come back soon.
- Thus, Rasberry Pi's based MUD's/clients and light text games over web/telnet/ssh get a reissanance.
- COVID get worse in North-Pyrenees Europe, Spain will be used as the "Gold standard" on how to do the things well.
- Vaccines will be mandatory in German speaking countries as the magufos/alt-medicine hipppies headed the then-current events really wrong.
- Network support will be flakey because of device/chips' shortage, so "offline first" will be the motto then.
- Said that, Usenet/Mail and similar asynchronous comms will come back soon.
Peace on Earth.
Killer Bees
Edit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7ok5AV7ZrM
Edit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7ok5AV7ZrM
- Donald Knuth will die
- Joe Biden will become unable to maintain office (due to age / health related issues) and his VP will become president; many will theorize this was the plan all along
- People will settle down about COVID regardless of what happens. There will be more backlash as we continue to learn more about the vaccines (and require boosters at some currently undetermined interval)
- $SPY will lose 100+ points but regain that. Prices of goods and services will continue to spiral out of control
- Joe Biden will become unable to maintain office (due to age / health related issues) and his VP will become president; many will theorize this was the plan all along
- People will settle down about COVID regardless of what happens. There will be more backlash as we continue to learn more about the vaccines (and require boosters at some currently undetermined interval)
- $SPY will lose 100+ points but regain that. Prices of goods and services will continue to spiral out of control
> Donald Knuth will die
You shut your whore mouth and say you're sorry right this instant.
You shut your whore mouth and say you're sorry right this instant.
Donald Knuth will die..... BUT his brain will live on in a jar in a Stanford subbasement
DK inventing Math problems and witticisms until his very last minute
- Republicans will continue to make electoral gains because of a) Gerrymandering; b) the fact that Trump is no longer in the picture.
- Covid will be the same as it is right now; basically a non-factor for a lot of people except that certain spaces require them to wear masks in what feels like a very perfunctory manner.
- Stephen Breyer will die in the middle of the 2024 election campaign and, for whatever reason, the Senate will not be able to confirm someone to fill the vacancy in time...
- Covid will be the same as it is right now; basically a non-factor for a lot of people except that certain spaces require them to wear masks in what feels like a very perfunctory manner.
- Stephen Breyer will die in the middle of the 2024 election campaign and, for whatever reason, the Senate will not be able to confirm someone to fill the vacancy in time...
[deleted]
- Metaverses grows exponentially
- Boris Johnson resigns or is institutionalised
- house prices in the UK increase by 10%
- Crypto is banned in the EU (and other places?) for environmental reasons
- Jeff Bezos will surpass 300bn USD in net worth
- A billionaire tax will be introduced in the US (only to be cancelled by Trump when he gets back in in 2024)
- house prices in the UK increase by 10%
- Crypto is banned in the EU (and other places?) for environmental reasons
- Jeff Bezos will surpass 300bn USD in net worth
- A billionaire tax will be introduced in the US (only to be cancelled by Trump when he gets back in in 2024)
Ok, I'll play.
- Rent and housing prices will rise far faster than inflation, leading to record numbers of both involuntary cohabitation and homelessness. Construction for affordable housing and non-luxury rent properties will not substantially increase, resulting in major economic upheaval in most metro areas, even relatively small ones.
- The Great Resignation and massive labor shortages will continue unabated, and will likely worsen sharply, driven by a pathological intransigence and outright delusional refusal to raise wages or improve working conditions. The lower middle class will be unable to afford the basic necessities of life - food and shelter - whether the work 80 hours or 2 hours a week, so why bother working at all?
- Congress will not raise the minimum wage. They might try to do something for the sake of optics, but everybody will already know it'll be bullshit.
- Hoarding of wealth will worsen, driving stock portfolios dangerously high. This will trigger a massive market correction in the following years of historic proportions, potentially rivaling the 2008 collapse. Probably won't be 1932 levels of bad, but might come close.
- Russia and China will put forward a geopolitical lie that the US is doomed and their economies are somehow oh so much better. Just look at our economic numbers! Yeah that's recent, we just published that yesterday! Huh? What do you mean "independent audit"? What's "credible source" mean? And don't you dare mention that pesky "free press" nonsense. We have...places...for people like you.
- Patient-facing healthcare staff demand will rise even more sharply, as will their pay, and their amount of overworked hours, even beyond 2021's hellscape of abuse. Record numbers of people in these roles will commit suicide, leading to fewer staff and further demoralizing an already exhausted staff in communities where this will happen.
- Government spending will drastically increase far beyond expectations as a necessary tourniquet for a hemmorhaging economy. The dollar's value will continue to fall, ultimately stabilizing by Q4 as the Fed finally makes the hard call on policy.
- Right-wing conspiracy theories will continue to gain followers and popularity, driven substantially by continued efforts from malicious global adversaries, most notably Russia, who will seek to invade Georgia and forcibly annex it again if that division is enough to keep us paralyzed, unable to drop the hammer on them after the deed is done. This will further stress similarly declining conditions in the EU as they try to stabilize the situation.
- Remote work will increase in popularity, as will competition for remote jobs across all relevant economic sectors and roles. This will keep job seekers unemployed longer in spite of the labor shortage. It will also increase discrimination and create a false sense of entitlement for employers, making them feel somewhat as if they once again have all the power. Expect pay and working conditions for professional roles to improve as employers try to compete for "the best" throughout the nation, not just their area(s).
- The catch for remote work? Your privacy - your dignity - will be the price you have to pay if you want that better job (now necessary just to survive since rent is so much higher). Employers will drastically increase workplace performance monitoring to the point of absurd, abusive, and even downright evil. Those who refuse to give in will be unemployed longer than those who capitulate, creating a strong preference for "easy to abuse" as a major, if not top, hiring criteria, above qualifications, especially among large corporations. Corporate so-called "values" will be increasingly viewed as outright lies.
- At least 10 people who read this comment will be dead inside of one year due to this economic upheaval. Many more will die nationwide, a frighteningly record number of them being children.
- Costs for healthcare, particularly mental health, will rise faster than inflation and faster than costs to provide. Antidepressants and other psychiatric medications will be prescribed in record numbers, even beyond 2021's standards. Prices for these medications, even old ones, will sharply increase as a result. Expect your co-pay and deductible to go up, and your available formulary to be heavily revised to your detriment. Insurers will not be held accountable.
- Antitrust and privacy protection efforts will universally stall, and most will die out. Google, Facebook, and their ilk won't face justice any time soon. This means their abuses of human rights and privacy will not only continue, but get worse. Much worse.
- Violent crime will increase drastically. Upper-middle-class white families will feel fear for their safety and their lives for the first time, and not all of us will handle it well. Expect gun sales, particularly to those who shouldn't have them, to increase, and while most will eventually get it together, eventually somebody's going to get killed by an untrained gun owner who open-carries, now legally, purely out of fear. This will lead to further calls for gun control that will go without meaningful reform, yet again.
---
COVID didn't cause all this, it was just the catalyst, the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. This perfect storm has been brewing for decades in Washington's cesspool of greed, arrogance and sociopathic narcissism that only Ivy league, Wall Street, military-industrialist elitists could manage to foul up this badly. This has been a long time coming, and it's not your Trump-supporting neighbor's fault any more than it is the Black Lives Matter guy's across the street. We're all being used, abused and lied to, and without a way to enforce consequences for those who've put themselves above the welfare of this country that we've entrusted them with, it won't change. A violent revolution is doomed to failure - how can you bring freedom and hope with a blood-soaked sword? - but some form of non-violent, powerful action will happen by 2050, probably sooner.
---
America has been through worse and triumphed before. We can do it again! This is not the end at all, but the painful moment of change in an ongoing cycle of birth, death and rebirth. This is where the ascended phoenix catches fire and burns, falling to ash below. And it's going to be hard. Not everyone who reads this post will live to see 2023. But don't give up, because that phoenix will absolutely rise again, and we're going to need you - your help, your passion, your joy and heart - to make our mutual moment in the sun last longer this time 'round.
It's always darkest just before dawn.
...but there is always a dawn. Just make sure you're still around to see it. Because you damn well deserve it. And because future generations deserve it too.
- Rent and housing prices will rise far faster than inflation, leading to record numbers of both involuntary cohabitation and homelessness. Construction for affordable housing and non-luxury rent properties will not substantially increase, resulting in major economic upheaval in most metro areas, even relatively small ones.
- The Great Resignation and massive labor shortages will continue unabated, and will likely worsen sharply, driven by a pathological intransigence and outright delusional refusal to raise wages or improve working conditions. The lower middle class will be unable to afford the basic necessities of life - food and shelter - whether the work 80 hours or 2 hours a week, so why bother working at all?
- Congress will not raise the minimum wage. They might try to do something for the sake of optics, but everybody will already know it'll be bullshit.
- Hoarding of wealth will worsen, driving stock portfolios dangerously high. This will trigger a massive market correction in the following years of historic proportions, potentially rivaling the 2008 collapse. Probably won't be 1932 levels of bad, but might come close.
- Russia and China will put forward a geopolitical lie that the US is doomed and their economies are somehow oh so much better. Just look at our economic numbers! Yeah that's recent, we just published that yesterday! Huh? What do you mean "independent audit"? What's "credible source" mean? And don't you dare mention that pesky "free press" nonsense. We have...places...for people like you.
- Patient-facing healthcare staff demand will rise even more sharply, as will their pay, and their amount of overworked hours, even beyond 2021's hellscape of abuse. Record numbers of people in these roles will commit suicide, leading to fewer staff and further demoralizing an already exhausted staff in communities where this will happen.
- Government spending will drastically increase far beyond expectations as a necessary tourniquet for a hemmorhaging economy. The dollar's value will continue to fall, ultimately stabilizing by Q4 as the Fed finally makes the hard call on policy.
- Right-wing conspiracy theories will continue to gain followers and popularity, driven substantially by continued efforts from malicious global adversaries, most notably Russia, who will seek to invade Georgia and forcibly annex it again if that division is enough to keep us paralyzed, unable to drop the hammer on them after the deed is done. This will further stress similarly declining conditions in the EU as they try to stabilize the situation.
- Remote work will increase in popularity, as will competition for remote jobs across all relevant economic sectors and roles. This will keep job seekers unemployed longer in spite of the labor shortage. It will also increase discrimination and create a false sense of entitlement for employers, making them feel somewhat as if they once again have all the power. Expect pay and working conditions for professional roles to improve as employers try to compete for "the best" throughout the nation, not just their area(s).
- The catch for remote work? Your privacy - your dignity - will be the price you have to pay if you want that better job (now necessary just to survive since rent is so much higher). Employers will drastically increase workplace performance monitoring to the point of absurd, abusive, and even downright evil. Those who refuse to give in will be unemployed longer than those who capitulate, creating a strong preference for "easy to abuse" as a major, if not top, hiring criteria, above qualifications, especially among large corporations. Corporate so-called "values" will be increasingly viewed as outright lies.
- At least 10 people who read this comment will be dead inside of one year due to this economic upheaval. Many more will die nationwide, a frighteningly record number of them being children.
- Costs for healthcare, particularly mental health, will rise faster than inflation and faster than costs to provide. Antidepressants and other psychiatric medications will be prescribed in record numbers, even beyond 2021's standards. Prices for these medications, even old ones, will sharply increase as a result. Expect your co-pay and deductible to go up, and your available formulary to be heavily revised to your detriment. Insurers will not be held accountable.
- Antitrust and privacy protection efforts will universally stall, and most will die out. Google, Facebook, and their ilk won't face justice any time soon. This means their abuses of human rights and privacy will not only continue, but get worse. Much worse.
- Violent crime will increase drastically. Upper-middle-class white families will feel fear for their safety and their lives for the first time, and not all of us will handle it well. Expect gun sales, particularly to those who shouldn't have them, to increase, and while most will eventually get it together, eventually somebody's going to get killed by an untrained gun owner who open-carries, now legally, purely out of fear. This will lead to further calls for gun control that will go without meaningful reform, yet again.
---
COVID didn't cause all this, it was just the catalyst, the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. This perfect storm has been brewing for decades in Washington's cesspool of greed, arrogance and sociopathic narcissism that only Ivy league, Wall Street, military-industrialist elitists could manage to foul up this badly. This has been a long time coming, and it's not your Trump-supporting neighbor's fault any more than it is the Black Lives Matter guy's across the street. We're all being used, abused and lied to, and without a way to enforce consequences for those who've put themselves above the welfare of this country that we've entrusted them with, it won't change. A violent revolution is doomed to failure - how can you bring freedom and hope with a blood-soaked sword? - but some form of non-violent, powerful action will happen by 2050, probably sooner.
---
America has been through worse and triumphed before. We can do it again! This is not the end at all, but the painful moment of change in an ongoing cycle of birth, death and rebirth. This is where the ascended phoenix catches fire and burns, falling to ash below. And it's going to be hard. Not everyone who reads this post will live to see 2023. But don't give up, because that phoenix will absolutely rise again, and we're going to need you - your help, your passion, your joy and heart - to make our mutual moment in the sun last longer this time 'round.
It's always darkest just before dawn.
...but there is always a dawn. Just make sure you're still around to see it. Because you damn well deserve it. And because future generations deserve it too.
Have you read "The Storm Before The Calm" by George Friedman? He makes a lot of very similar predictions to you. Highly recommend reading this book.
I generally agree with these predictions. My sense is that our society has SERIOUSLY screwed up the natural balance of the economy in an unprecedented way. It's going to get a lot worse, and it's going to feed directly into the deepening political polarization we've all seen. Right now the most important questions are: how do I position myself so that I am maximally protected during this upheaval? And what does the end state look like?
I generally agree with these predictions. My sense is that our society has SERIOUSLY screwed up the natural balance of the economy in an unprecedented way. It's going to get a lot worse, and it's going to feed directly into the deepening political polarization we've all seen. Right now the most important questions are: how do I position myself so that I am maximally protected during this upheaval? And what does the end state look like?
Never heard of it, but I may check that out next time I'm looking for a good read! Thanks for the recommendation!
I think the obvious one would be the EV wars. Also the delayed shipping dates for those vehicles. IE: If you order an EV truck now you wont get it until 2024.
Hopefully staying remote and rent not going up, but one can only hope...