The orderbook dynamics of prediction markets
Ive been watching Kalshi and Polymarket orderbooks for months and the depth asymmetry is fascinating. On most sports events you see maybe 30-50k of depth on Kalshi vs 5-10k on Poly for the same contract. When one venue reprices the other follows within 2-3 seconds. The lack of cross-venue arbitrage dampening (unlike crypto exchanges) makes the absorption signal clean enough to trade on. Anyone else watching this space?