Soldier Used Classified Information to Bet on Maduro's Ouster(nytimes.com)

Soldier Used Classified Information to Bet on Maduro's Ouster

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/23/nyregion/polymarket-maduro-indictment-soldier.html

7 comments

mlavrenthace 3 meses

I’m sort of confused on what prediction markets are going for? Polymarket here said they referred this to the DoJ and are trying to catch users using such insider info, but trading on insider info is the whole point of these markets is it not?

They bill themselves as providing accurate predictions, but the accuracy of those predictions is predicated on incentivizing (financially) users with non public info to share it.

They should probably pick a lane- is it gambling or is it incentivized insider trading for public good (accurate predictions)?

[deleted]hace 3 meses

its-summertimehace 3 meses

I think its more the concept of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster stuff

edge_trader_41hace 3 meses

gnabgibhace 3 meses

CNN (21 points, 4 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47882645

ABCnews (13 points, 5 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47882789

justice.gov (1+75 points, 0+26 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47883034 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47883108

WSJ (5 points) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47883150

mizzaohace 3 meses

Gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/23/nyregion/polymarket-madur...

> “Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain,” Mr. Clayton said.

Hard to enforce that in practice, isn't it?

razingedenhace 3 meses

Senators and Congresspersons don’t like competition >8(