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NovaVeles

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NovaVeles
·hace 3 años·discuss
I have a gut feeling that SerenityOS is going to have the same kind of progress that Linux had. Started as a little hobby side project "but nothing serious" but could eventually become something that ends up being a really useful. We will see where it is in another 5 years. Coming from a completely fresh base means that it has not gather the same technical legacy as others and that could really play to its hands in years to come.
NovaVeles
·hace 3 años·discuss
And then there is the Apple Dogcow! ;)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogcow

MOOF!!!
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
Alan Watts said it about LSD - but equally applies to MDMA. Use it like a scientist uses a microscope. Use it to observe but then you go away and work on what you have experienced. Don't get fixated on the observation stage.
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
It is one of the easiest things to do that has a sizeable impact on the world.
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
I don't want to defend the Hiltons but that is just one example of something that was very common during that time period. In the 50's/60's - the idea that we would not solve the fundamental issues of the era over the coming decades would have been laughable.

When it comes to material shortages, fusion power, limits of computer chip scaling, global warming, over fishing, plastic waste, hyper effective battery storage, nuclear deescalation etc... have all been answered a lot with - they will think of something. Yes, there have been improvements but with most of these things, we have also missed the mark by a long shot. And decades later, we haven't. Sometimes it is right, look at what we did with CFC's. But it is by no means something I would hitch my wagon to.

John Michael Greer calls phrases like these 'Thought-stoppers' Little saying that we have that mean we don't have to face the ugly truth of something or are just trying to be a little too optimistic about the future in the face of hard times. "Housing prices only go up", "They will think of something", "Stock prices only go up", "It is different this time", "The fundamentals don't matter any more" etc.
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
No as has already been answered. The example I can directly think of is modelling of specific weather patterns across Australia. A model that works in predicting weather 2 weeks out may work today but not work so well in 5 years.

Global Warming is happening, that is not just a realm of modelling but is directly observable today. The models on a broad scale look to be working very well, specific locations and reactions not so much.

It is possible to make broad engines that work but also get the finer details wrong. Signal : Noise ratio and all of that.
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
I feel for the Weather pattern folk. All of the one I have spoken to over the years are pretty cool. They are trying to model an insanely complex system - oh but thanks to global warming they are struggling to make models that work for longer than a few years because it all keeps changing!
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
Depends on the examples you use I guess. I mean early last year King Gizzard dropped The Dripping tap. an 18 minute prog rock jam thing where there is a good 5 minutes where they repeat this 41 times like a mantra.

"Drip, drip from the tap don't slip Drip, drip from the tap don't slip on the drip"

The repetition is through the roof on that gem.
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
Do not mistake technical viability with economic viability. The 1st Breeder reactor went into service in 1962, there have been many after and they have all meet the same fate.

Yes, they can breed their own fuel but the total cost of doing it is wildly prohibitive.

You can get gold/uranium/lithium from Ocean water, try and do it at a price people will actually pay for it. You can get minerals from space, so long as the market rate of $10 million a ton is viable... etc.

As always, if I get proven wrong - that will be a great day!
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
Sorry this may seem a little snarky but - "They will think of something" - the universal band-aid for I want it to be true but I rationally don't know how.

When ever I hear that, the optimist in me wants it to be true. The pessimist thinks otherwise and nowadays the pessimist usually wins.

We will have hotels in orbit by the 1970's - they will think of something! That was a legitimate thing that the Hiltons proposed back in the 1960's.
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
I think the big thing is that all those original achievement don't defy physics to achieve them. It was a case of ignorance and the belief that we just were not that smart. And while there was a big period of exponential growth - there is an upper limit.

We aren't going to Galaxies in a few hundred years - the time to Andromeda is 2.5 Million Light Years. Unless we fundamentally have physics wrong, we aren't doing that any quicker no matter how hard we try.
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
There is a blog called, 'Do the Math' by Tom Murphy. The idea was to take our current energy requires of Earth and extrapolate it at the current 3% year over year growth. I believe it is by the year 3,400 we would use all the energy of the Milky way. The idea was to prove that we cannot grow forever, because in 1,400 years we would somehow use all the energy of a space 100,000 light years across. Good luck with that.

Space is is just so astoundingly empty. Here in Melbourne, Australia we have a scale model of the solar system.

https://stkildamelbourne.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/S...

The Sun is about the size of a Fridge. Pluto is 9KM (5.6 miles) away and the size of a pea. Walking that really puts it all into a tangible scale. And that is merely 5.5 Light hours at full scale. Space is HUGE!
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
It is a reasonable conclusion. Resource limitations means civilizations, burn up too much of their energy/materials before they ever get truly space bound.

They could all be just like us. A few space probes manage to escape the energy well but they are so small that no one else ever detects them again. I mean, it is not uncommon to sight life ending asteroids days after they have passed earth, the odds of us detecting any sort probe/device the size of a fridge - is nearly zero.

Best analogy I heard came from Stephen Harrod Bruhner. Civilizations are just like plants. A plant is at its fullest just as it is about to produce seed and die off. During the peak of our energy use, we have been sending probes into space. It is a neat thought experiment.
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
Ready to play Quake 3 and then someone decided to bring a G4 Mac. Easy to communicate right "It just works!"... :D
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
Actually that would make sense. I usually eat much later 8-9pm and so that crash would come after the work day is done.
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
I will shoot from the hip on this one. I don't have any sources directly at hand but across a lot of western countries the amount of new licenses has been declining for well over a decade. It is only a matter of time until the sales start to catch up to this.

Car ownership for a lot of people is now a necessity rather than a desire. It is becoming seen as a functional burden rather than a symbol of freedom. Why spend a sizable amount of your income feeding a 2 ton steel beast unless it is absolutely needed?
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
It is a wave that has come before and will come again.

Task gets out sourced. They save some money initially. Managers how did it get a promotion and then skips out to the next company. Out sourced work ends up costing more than the original in house work. In house work grows. Rinse and repeat.

If you can survive the wave you will be fine. It just depends on how brutal they get with the initial lay off.
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
To add to what others have said about the utility of books. A deeper question is, why should it have any purpose? Can we not just do something just because we do it. Not everything has to quantified into a manner of a positive transaction. It can just be 'for nice'.
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
I know this is an argument of 'ignorance is bliss'. But one wonders if the subject would be aware of this decline?

If you are in decline but unaware of it, is that a bad thing?
NovaVeles
·hace 4 años·discuss
Yeah, I'm going to be one of those folks. Intermittent fasting always worked for me.

I think because it just keeps everything even or at least the hour-to-hour delta to a minimum. When you break it down into smaller meals, even if you are following the low calories through out the day, it can create a higher high/low that can swing through out the day.

Your mileage may vary.