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To sort of piggy back off of your point, I think Harley is headed for the rocks and it all comes down to number 1. Harley has such a concrete demographic and it's been exhausted. The problem is, by catering so hard to that demographic they are not able to get new riders.
To make matters worse, things like electric motorcycles, discontinuing the Dyna / FXR line, and changing from an air cooled engine to a liquid cooled engine is also annoying their diehard demographic.
The only demographic which seems to be growing (though, I'm extremely biased on this) is younger kids who are getting into customizing motorcycles. Not "Orange County Chopper" bikes, but buying old Harleys (or Triumphs or BSAs or Hondas for that matter) and making them into cool choppers or cafe racers or whatever. The problem is, this demographic doesn't give Harley any money. They don't want the Harley branded everything. They want old bikes that they can get cheap aftermarket or NOS parts for and they want to ride those.
He also did a really in depth blog post about how it works. I haven't gotten around to reading the full post yet, but from the little that I've read he goes into a deep dive about how it works.
https://medium.com/@hate5six/sage-an-artificially-intelligen...