No system is foolproof. They'd have to be willing to throw out some % of good customers along with the bots. Amazon can do that because they have a monopoly already. Anthropic can't risk it when they're trying to grab market share.
I worked for a company that did opt-in spam email. Their main offices were in Silicon Valley, but they had a startup thing in LA that I worked at. Ostensibly we were building a self-service email campaign app to be bundled with Weblogic Commerce Server (which itself was basically DOA).
It became pretty obvious to me from the get-go that nothing was being built, and the startup was just siphoning money off the parent company. I'm not sure if there was any fraud going on beyond a bunch of people collecting a paycheck.
I think the boss was skimming off of the captive H1Bs, and there was a guy in NYC who never did anything as far as I could tell. I wouldn't be surprised if there was some kind of kickback going on there.
My first day, I went out for sushi with the top devs, who proceeded to tell one horror story after another about the boss. Awesome way to start a job. I lasted 3 months.
There's a sweet spot between AI slop and 144 characters. I can tell within a few sentences whether there's a human on the other end getting to the point, or an AI dancing around the point and finding 3 different ways to say the same thing.
I can't imagine working for a place that has a big bucket of PRs that either get reviewed or languish for some amount of time based on who feels like reviewing them. I'm not saying there's anything wrong with it, just that everywhere I've ever worked, there are expected features with priorities and timelines and some project manager or product person breathing down your neck to get them out the door.
> You just drug its food and wait till it passes out.
Human zoo keepers are actually smarter than that. For months, they train the tiger to go into the carrier to get food. Then on transport day, they shut the door behind it. Unclear if this works for future transport situations.
Peter Attia is a crap human being for being buddies with Epstein after most of his crimes were already known.
But I still trust his analysis more than anyone else at dissecting this kind of stuff and separating the wheat from the chaff. I'll be curious to see if he covers this.
I think most humans have some intrinsic desire to feel useful to their tribe, to feel like they earn their keep. I know people on the equivalent of UBI, and they're all miserable. I don't think we're wired to do nothing all day, and I don't think everyone has it in them to be self-motivated artists or craftspeople.
This is all just my personal experience, obviously. I don't have any data to back it up. But I know that even though my job bugs me sometimes, I'm a lot happier when I'm busy than not, and I work remotely. I like the feeling of accomplishment. But do I like it enough to build things for free? Probably not. I'd probably just sit around and spiral, like I've seen friends do on extended unemployment.
Anyway, this all is a moot point imo because as long as one person still has to work, the billionaire class will turn the "lazy freeloaders" on UBI into scapegoats. See: current politics.
I feel like this is very possible eventually, but under 5 years seems unrealistic to me. The compute power is already running into limits. And a few more major problems need to be solved before agents can have that kind of autonomy to create software from scratch and run entire businesses.
I'm 57 and have no desire to retire. I know plenty of other programmers in their 50s who aren't itching to retire.
Programming, at least for me, isn't like some factory job where you can't wait to get out at your 30 years or whatever. I've always enjoyed what I do and found it rewarding.
Seriously. I've been programming almost 30 years and I feel like I could easily have another 10 in me. I'm sure many reading this will assume my skills are deteriorating at an atrocious rate. But I'm still the lead developer on a team that leans on me heavily to figure out the hard stuff. So I can't be too far gone.