I am a trans tech person who strongly suspects this person will transition based on pattern recognition of other software people I’ve known transitioning.
I think you should think about it in terms of how much “naive optimism” you want to foster in your friends.
In truth, there’s good reasons do doubt every project, even the ones that end up being highly succesfull.
Unfortunately, it seems like human beings are highly pulled towards either working on something with unrealistic confidence, or sitting on the the couch and watching netflix.
Working on something with unrealistic confidence, even if that project itself is completely doomed to failure, is probably better for you than watching Netflix.
The one exception is, there is a higher than average probability that startup people with naive optimism end up getting into a position where they decide to end their life.
The mutational load thing rings true, because i both have a weird uneven resting expression and I am crazier than a shithouse rabbit.
I do think there is a big correlation between crazyness and “professional hot people” (sex workers, intimacy workers, many service people, models, actors, etc), being that the mental game of attraction is inherently irrational and it helps to operate on vibes vs. numbers.
This feels like a well written article from someone who is very good at understanding numbers and finding objective facts but also is not quite able to fully grasp how the world works.
I used to work at vrc. My feelings about the app rapidly swung between euphoric highs when I would hear about this (bringing back some of the old internet spirit was a particular fixation of mine as a geocities/irc kid) mixed with terrible lows when stories about something like grooming would come out.
It seems ridiculous to me to float this as something that is going to happen.