Volvo Says It Will Stop Selling Gasoline-Powered Cars by 2030(nytimes.com)
nytimes.com
Volvo Says It Will Stop Selling Gasoline-Powered Cars by 2030
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/02/business/volvo-electric-cars.html
34 comments
It's a claim made by Volvo themselves(1):
> All of our cars are available with plug-in hybrid technology. Introduction of mild hybrid powertrains – all newly launched Volvos will be electrified, either hybrids or fully electric.
And yes the S60 was offered as a plugin hybrid, which can be confirmed with a simple Google Search. "Pure" gas models also used their "Mild Hybrid" setup - whether that should count is up for debate, but maybe you should take a moment and fact check your assumptions?
(1) - https://www.volvocars.com/intl/why-volvo/human-innovation/el...
> All of our cars are available with plug-in hybrid technology. Introduction of mild hybrid powertrains – all newly launched Volvos will be electrified, either hybrids or fully electric.
And yes the S60 was offered as a plugin hybrid, which can be confirmed with a simple Google Search. "Pure" gas models also used their "Mild Hybrid" setup - whether that should count is up for debate, but maybe you should take a moment and fact check your assumptions?
(1) - https://www.volvocars.com/intl/why-volvo/human-innovation/el...
All models having hybrid options is pretty different from all models being hybrids.
That sentence in the article is just poorly written.
That sentence in the article is just poorly written.
Perhaps they meant to say that Volvo's strategy has been focusing on electric designs after 2019.
But yea, guess you can't expect journalists to be too focused on the specifics and facts these days.
But yea, guess you can't expect journalists to be too focused on the specifics and facts these days.
It's not even true today. The V90 does not have a hybrid version.
They do, but I think not in all markets?
https://www.volvocars.com/uk/v/cars/v90-hybrid
I think also they've discontinued the V40 as they couldn't deliver a hybrid version on that platform?
https://www.volvocars.com/uk/v/cars/v90-hybrid
I think also they've discontinued the V40 as they couldn't deliver a hybrid version on that platform?
Whoa, that’s wild. I couldn’t find it on their US page. That’s so interesting
The most interesting announcement is buried at the bottom:
In another break from industry practice, Volvo’s electric models will be sold exclusively online, bypassing dealers.
In another break from industry practice, Volvo’s electric models will be sold exclusively online, bypassing dealers.
So all Volvo dealers are done? Interesting. I wonder how they'll do after-sale support (building a network back up from scratch will take a while.)
Tesla does without dealers, in part because electric cars require far less service. They have many fewer moving parts (under two dozen, by some counts). They don't need oil changes; their timing belts don't wear out; they don't need tuneups.
That's why car dealers have set up rules trying to keep Tesla out of many states. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_US_dealership_disputes for the whole rigamarole.
In Volvo's case it sounds like they're planning on having a large hybrid line that would still go through conventional dealers, which can presumably be tasked to deal with the electric stuff (though I'm sure there will be a fight about who pays what).
That's why car dealers have set up rules trying to keep Tesla out of many states. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_US_dealership_disputes for the whole rigamarole.
In Volvo's case it sounds like they're planning on having a large hybrid line that would still go through conventional dealers, which can presumably be tasked to deal with the electric stuff (though I'm sure there will be a fight about who pays what).
You'll still need servicing. What's the difference between a dealership and a servicing location? Don't most people configure and order online anyway and just pick up from a dealer? What does the dealer really do except help you pick and show you how to use the car when you pick it up?
In America, car dealerships typically sit on 5-20 acre lots, carry an inventory of tens, if not over a thousand cars, in some of the largest dealerships. In many suburban markets "car dealership" is synonymous with "new car superstore". The number of customers buying a custom order is very likely under 10%, maybe even under 5%. If you even suggest ordering a car the sales person will (in my experience) try to steer you towards something that's on the lot, as they can close the deal that day and you drive home in the car you bought.
We met a Belgian Mitsubishi dealer once, he showed us photos of his dealership, the building was about the size of a McDonalds with three bays for service and a modest office area and parking for about 15 cars. Most everything was custom order. This is, as I understand it, pretty common in Europe, and how cars were sold about 70 years ago in the US, but the "super store" model has been in place in America since at least the 1980s.
We met a Belgian Mitsubishi dealer once, he showed us photos of his dealership, the building was about the size of a McDonalds with three bays for service and a modest office area and parking for about 15 cars. Most everything was custom order. This is, as I understand it, pretty common in Europe, and how cars were sold about 70 years ago in the US, but the "super store" model has been in place in America since at least the 1980s.
100% this. The concept of going out and buying a car, is really only a used car thing. Going out to just buy a new car is unheard of in most of Europe. It's a (often) week long process and you order your custom car at the end.
> Don't most people configure and order online anyway and just pick up from a dealer
I... don’t think so? I think most people expect a car to be available when they go to a dealership.
> What does the dealer really do except help you pick and show you how to use the car when you pick it up?
Financing, installing aftermarket parts, handling trade-ins.
I... don’t think so? I think most people expect a car to be available when they go to a dealership.
> What does the dealer really do except help you pick and show you how to use the car when you pick it up?
Financing, installing aftermarket parts, handling trade-ins.
> I think most people expect a car to be available when they go to a dealership.
They're not likely to have the model you want in the specification you want and the colour you want just randomly sitting right there and then, no matter how large the dealership is, so most people have to order.
> Financing, installing aftermarket parts, handling trade-ins.
Right, so trade-in is part of the delivery process and parts is like servicing. These are all things that still need to happen. Financing is part of the buying process so can be done online or they can help you do it if you're stuck.
They're not likely to have the model you want in the specification you want and the colour you want just randomly sitting right there and then, no matter how large the dealership is, so most people have to order.
> Financing, installing aftermarket parts, handling trade-ins.
Right, so trade-in is part of the delivery process and parts is like servicing. These are all things that still need to happen. Financing is part of the buying process so can be done online or they can help you do it if you're stuck.
> They're not likely to have the model you want in the specification you want and the colour you want just randomly sitting right there and then, no matter how large the dealership is, so most people have to order.
A lot of people just pick from what they have in stock (or what they can get in very short order from nearby dealerships).
> Right, so trade-in is part of the delivery process and parts is like servicing. These are all things that still need to happen. Financing is part of the buying process so can be done online or they can help you do it if you're stuck.
I don’t understand what you’re going for here. These are things that dealers do, and do a lot of. I thought that’s what you were asking about. You can do them online... but a ton of people don’t.
A lot of people just pick from what they have in stock (or what they can get in very short order from nearby dealerships).
> Right, so trade-in is part of the delivery process and parts is like servicing. These are all things that still need to happen. Financing is part of the buying process so can be done online or they can help you do it if you're stuck.
I don’t understand what you’re going for here. These are things that dealers do, and do a lot of. I thought that’s what you were asking about. You can do them online... but a ton of people don’t.
> I don’t understand what you’re going for here.
Someone asked
> So all Volvo dealers are done?
I said no, because they'll still need to do lots of things they already do, like handing the car over, servicing, things like that.
Someone asked
> So all Volvo dealers are done?
I said no, because they'll still need to do lots of things they already do, like handing the car over, servicing, things like that.
9 years is a very aggressive deadline that will force Volvo to change the entire company from top to bottom and bottom to top. But if you want to achievement very difficult goals you really need to aim for the impossible.
You seem to assume that the process starts today, but they have likely prepared for a while already before making this announcement.
Volvo has been producing 100% electric cars on and off for a few years now and basically their entire line is available as plugin hybrids, so they're not completely starting from 0. The Polestar 2 has even been getting pretty good reviews, even when compared to Teslas.
> 9 years is a very aggressive deadline
They've got no choice - governments are banning them in Y-9. It's adapt or go out of business at this late stage.
They've got no choice - governments are banning them in Y-9. It's adapt or go out of business at this late stage.
LOL, no government is going to ban them in 9 years. OK, maybe Monaco or something.
First, fuel transitions take on the order of 50-60 years. Nothing happens in 9 years. The first successful diesel locomotive engine was sold in the 1920s, they reached 50% market share in the 1950s, and the last major steam powered train engine was retired in the 1970s. And that's with massive cost savings of diesel over steam and a capital good that was allocated rationally, as it wasn't a consumer good sold to hundreds of millions of people.
This isn't like software, where everyone leaves myspace in a few years and poof it's gone. People are in for a rude awakening when they face market realities of long term durable goods, especially engines that customers expect to last 20 years.
Or is this like the promises to reduce CO2? Have they ever kept a single one of those promises? Promising to do something, especially something unrealistic and to which your administration can't be held accountable, is not a meaningful promise, but a publicity stunt, made so easy by the fact that electorates today can only view the world in short time windows, thus the short memory and attention span which makes them easy to lie to, but also the impatience which requires a constant stream of unrealistic promises be made to them. You also see this in doomsday predictions, which are repeated ad nauseam - disaster X will happen in 10 years -- and due to the same short attention span no one seems to care that the same predictions were made forty, thirty, twenty, and ten years ago. It is always Year Zero for those living in the eternal now. And each time they are believed and met with promises as fake as the predictions, similar ineffectual promises being made 20 years ago, 10 years ago, and today.
Those who manage to live outside this bubble of inattentive forgetfulness realize that things happen slowly, they happen in response to market pressure, and governments have only limited influence on these pressures.
First, fuel transitions take on the order of 50-60 years. Nothing happens in 9 years. The first successful diesel locomotive engine was sold in the 1920s, they reached 50% market share in the 1950s, and the last major steam powered train engine was retired in the 1970s. And that's with massive cost savings of diesel over steam and a capital good that was allocated rationally, as it wasn't a consumer good sold to hundreds of millions of people.
This isn't like software, where everyone leaves myspace in a few years and poof it's gone. People are in for a rude awakening when they face market realities of long term durable goods, especially engines that customers expect to last 20 years.
Or is this like the promises to reduce CO2? Have they ever kept a single one of those promises? Promising to do something, especially something unrealistic and to which your administration can't be held accountable, is not a meaningful promise, but a publicity stunt, made so easy by the fact that electorates today can only view the world in short time windows, thus the short memory and attention span which makes them easy to lie to, but also the impatience which requires a constant stream of unrealistic promises be made to them. You also see this in doomsday predictions, which are repeated ad nauseam - disaster X will happen in 10 years -- and due to the same short attention span no one seems to care that the same predictions were made forty, thirty, twenty, and ten years ago. It is always Year Zero for those living in the eternal now. And each time they are believed and met with promises as fake as the predictions, similar ineffectual promises being made 20 years ago, 10 years ago, and today.
Those who manage to live outside this bubble of inattentive forgetfulness realize that things happen slowly, they happen in response to market pressure, and governments have only limited influence on these pressures.
Nobody is talking about banning existing cars, so the 50-60y timeline is irrelevant for this discussion. Some cities are considering banning non-EVs from the core though. There’s some talk of trying geofencing tech that would allow hybrids if they’re in EV-mode.
Also remember that adoption tend to follow S-curves. From start to finish is a long time. But the 10-90% ramp is usually very fast.
Norway and Netherlands will probably ban or severely restrict sale of new non-BEV cars in 2030. I’m guessing a lot of other countries will consider it, or implement very strong incentives then.
Norway went from 1% to 50% of new sales being BEV in about 10 years. Most of that in the last 5. This was during a time when BEVe and charging technology was garbage compared to whats on the market now. We mostly ramped up with 50kW fast chargers. Now 350kW is becoming common.
> they happen in response to market pressure
This is starting to ramp up very quickly now. BEVs should have lower TCO by at latest 2024 or so depending on where you live.
A breakthrough in battery tech that reaches market before 2025 could accelerate things significantly. Yeah, we’ve all heard about all these fantastic battery breakthroughs in the lab that we never see the results of. The thing is, some of those have been quietly progressing, and now we’re seeing companies actually start real manufacturing of some of these. QuantumScape is a promising example.
Also remember that adoption tend to follow S-curves. From start to finish is a long time. But the 10-90% ramp is usually very fast.
Norway and Netherlands will probably ban or severely restrict sale of new non-BEV cars in 2030. I’m guessing a lot of other countries will consider it, or implement very strong incentives then.
Norway went from 1% to 50% of new sales being BEV in about 10 years. Most of that in the last 5. This was during a time when BEVe and charging technology was garbage compared to whats on the market now. We mostly ramped up with 50kW fast chargers. Now 350kW is becoming common.
> they happen in response to market pressure
This is starting to ramp up very quickly now. BEVs should have lower TCO by at latest 2024 or so depending on where you live.
A breakthrough in battery tech that reaches market before 2025 could accelerate things significantly. Yeah, we’ve all heard about all these fantastic battery breakthroughs in the lab that we never see the results of. The thing is, some of those have been quietly progressing, and now we’re seeing companies actually start real manufacturing of some of these. QuantumScape is a promising example.
> especially engines that customers expect to last 20 years
I don't think they're proposing they're banned from being used, but from being sold new, so how long an old engine lasts is irrelevant.
I don't think they're proposing they're banned from being used, but from being sold new, so how long an old engine lasts is irrelevant.
If they are being used, there is a market for them and they will be sold new as well. There isn't a big gap between something that needs to be serviced being used and something being sold. But if you really believe it will be illegal to sell new gas cars in 9 years, why not make your case on long bets? It is the most absurd thing I've read up until the guy advocating getting rid of professional homebuilders in Berlin so that people can make their own homes by hand.
> If they are being used, there is a market for them and they will be sold new as well.
You think Volvo will keep building and selling black-market petrol cars and nobody will notice?
> if you really believe it will be illegal to sell new gas cars in 9 years, why not make your case on long bets?
That's... that's what Volvo are doing. They're betting on it happening so hard they're completely switching their business up. That's what the article is about.
You think Volvo will keep building and selling black-market petrol cars and nobody will notice?
> if you really believe it will be illegal to sell new gas cars in 9 years, why not make your case on long bets?
That's... that's what Volvo are doing. They're betting on it happening so hard they're completely switching their business up. That's what the article is about.
No, you have changed the subject from what governments will ban to what an individual private firm does.
If I had said no private automaker will exit the ICE market over the next 9 years, then your response would have been on topic. It would also have been a strange thing to say since we know private firms exit markets all the time. That Chrysler is still in business stuns me every day, they should sell off their truck business and shut down the rest. Trucks and SUVs are the main things that US firms compete in now, as the personal auto market is so thoroughly dominated by Japan and Korea.
For example, Ford announced it was exiting the personal auto market (https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/ford-stops-making-cars/). Yet that market remains. Volvo, always a niche player in the personal auto market but one of the most successful truck manufacturers in the world, split off the personal auto division and sold them to various foreign firms, none of which could make volvo cars turn a profit, and ultimately they ended up owned by a Chinese holding company. I wish them well, maybe they can turn things around and this new focus is what they need. The much larger and industry leading Volvo truck business, OTOH, was not sold off, and has made no announcements to exit the ICE market. That's how markets work. We want entry and exit to be as free as possible.
As it stands, you are responding to something I didn't say and trying to debate points no one is making. I said no major government will ban sales of ICE vehicles in the next 9 years and any promises to do so should be viewed with the same credibility as all their other promises on CO2. In fact, has even a single promise been kept? So now we are back on the topic of governments keeping promises, not market actors responding to market incentives.
But if you really believe promises by governments to take action in 9 years when all the previous promises were ignored, then go ahead and believe.
In some sense these promises work if they make you feel better now and help win elections today - it is politics-as-therapy - and they do no harm to the economy in that they will be ignored. Which is not to say that ICE is here to stay -- but it will be economic concerns that dominate the discussion -- how much cheaper/faster/more convenient is the replacement not because of government promises to overrule the market. Those should be viewed purely as therapy.
If I had said no private automaker will exit the ICE market over the next 9 years, then your response would have been on topic. It would also have been a strange thing to say since we know private firms exit markets all the time. That Chrysler is still in business stuns me every day, they should sell off their truck business and shut down the rest. Trucks and SUVs are the main things that US firms compete in now, as the personal auto market is so thoroughly dominated by Japan and Korea.
For example, Ford announced it was exiting the personal auto market (https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/ford-stops-making-cars/). Yet that market remains. Volvo, always a niche player in the personal auto market but one of the most successful truck manufacturers in the world, split off the personal auto division and sold them to various foreign firms, none of which could make volvo cars turn a profit, and ultimately they ended up owned by a Chinese holding company. I wish them well, maybe they can turn things around and this new focus is what they need. The much larger and industry leading Volvo truck business, OTOH, was not sold off, and has made no announcements to exit the ICE market. That's how markets work. We want entry and exit to be as free as possible.
As it stands, you are responding to something I didn't say and trying to debate points no one is making. I said no major government will ban sales of ICE vehicles in the next 9 years and any promises to do so should be viewed with the same credibility as all their other promises on CO2. In fact, has even a single promise been kept? So now we are back on the topic of governments keeping promises, not market actors responding to market incentives.
But if you really believe promises by governments to take action in 9 years when all the previous promises were ignored, then go ahead and believe.
In some sense these promises work if they make you feel better now and help win elections today - it is politics-as-therapy - and they do no harm to the economy in that they will be ignored. Which is not to say that ICE is here to stay -- but it will be economic concerns that dominate the discussion -- how much cheaper/faster/more convenient is the replacement not because of government promises to overrule the market. Those should be viewed purely as therapy.
> Ford announced it was exiting the personal auto market
Not sure if you're just trolling me now?
Ford haven't exited the personal auto market. The Ford F-150 is the best selling car in the US isn't it? And they're building new electric Mustangs? The Ford Focus is the second best selling car in the UK.
> I said no major government will ban sales of ICE vehicles in the next 9 years. Care to respond to the actual point?
For example:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54981425
(It's actually out to 2035 if you include hybrids.)
Not sure if you're just trolling me now?
Ford haven't exited the personal auto market. The Ford F-150 is the best selling car in the US isn't it? And they're building new electric Mustangs? The Ford Focus is the second best selling car in the UK.
> I said no major government will ban sales of ICE vehicles in the next 9 years. Care to respond to the actual point?
For example:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54981425
(It's actually out to 2035 if you include hybrids.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetraethyllead#Phaseout_and_ba...
May be relevant to the discussion, probably more so considering cars going hybrid.
May be relevant to the discussion, probably more so considering cars going hybrid.
That's neat and interesting... but the price difference between a Volvo plug-in hybrid and a Volvo gasoline vehicle are astounding.
Take the V60, a popular wagon. Gasoline model starts at $41.6k, and the hybrid model starts at $67.9k. Are these the kind of prices that Volvo is going to be aiming for?
Take the V60, a popular wagon. Gasoline model starts at $41.6k, and the hybrid model starts at $67.9k. Are these the kind of prices that Volvo is going to be aiming for?
Haven't many governments already said they'll stop allowing them to be sold by 2030?
So 'car manufacturer commits to stop building cars that they won't legally be allowed to sell' - that's the news?
So 'car manufacturer commits to stop building cars that they won't legally be allowed to sell' - that's the news?
Many, but nowhere near all, governments have made feel-good statements that they'll pass some sort of legislation at some point by then.
The amount of electrical infrastructure work required in many countries, cities, and homes means that gasoline cars will be sold, and aggressively maintained, for decades to come.
They also said they'd have their first consumer electric car ready 2020. Where can I buy Volvo's electric car? Nowhere.
Since they're so committed to this transformation, I'm assuming that they've already fired most of the gasoline-competence, since (most of) those employees are too old to learn anything new (i.e. electric car tech.)
If firing gasoline-car competence is a worldwide phenomenon, then by 2030 it'll reach irreversible brain-drain levels.
Since they're so committed to this transformation, I'm assuming that they've already fired most of the gasoline-competence, since (most of) those employees are too old to learn anything new (i.e. electric car tech.)
If firing gasoline-car competence is a worldwide phenomenon, then by 2030 it'll reach irreversible brain-drain levels.
>In 2019, all the models it sold were either hybrids or ran solely on batteries.
This is provably false. I have several family members who own 2019 or newer Volvos that are gas powered only. Some of the models do offer a hybrid option, though many DO NOT (the S60 in 2019 for sure did not come with anything but a gas engine). And of the ones where there is a hybrid/plug-in option, they are the most expensive and lowest volume.
I can't take anything else in here remotely seriously.